Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Sanchez365]

Really appreciate the notes briztoon. I think you are right we are seeing a shift in the type of player the team is made up of.

For what it's worth, I think you have only really stated your opinion, so will probably get an invite back next year

 

[briztoon]

Would love to hear your opinion of our draft - incorporating your own personal views and information gathered from the draft night.

I believe I covered a fair bit in my previous post.

My view before the draft was that this was a pretty deep and good draft. This was largely influenced by quite a few recruiters and draft watchers opinions of the 2019 U16 championships, which a lot of different club recruiters referred to in interviews and podcasts since 2019. It just had little KPP depth, and I mentioned repeatedly I wouldn't be drafting any of the KPP's left on board by our third pick.

Obviously I had a different opinion on the club needs than what our recruiting team did. I believe we needed a half back flanker, a taller inside mid with the ability to break away from congestion and a KPD. But due to the lack of KPP's in this draft, was happy to draft 3 smaller players.

Our recruiter said on night one of the draft that we wouldn't be looking at inside mids, as we still have a lot on our list. My opinion is yes, we have a lot, but most of them are very one paced/slow and not many of them are good runners; Neale, Lyons, JBerry (good runner but one paced), Mathieson, CEY.

I was hoping if the right players were there at our first two picks, we could fill our half back and mid spot, and with the additions of Ashcroft and Fletcher next year, be pretty much set for the next decade in regards to small/medium defenders and midfield. With our third pick, I was expecting there to still be a few good flankers left on board, Then from the 2023 draft we could start to look at KPP's and small/medium forwards for our list.


I know nothing of Tunstill, other than the AFL website lists him at 187cm, so he projects as a good size mid.

Hopefully I can get down to a couple of Wednesdays training sessions to checkout the new boys and academy boys and father sons these holidays.

 

[Nunez]

ok Nunez what did you want to ask me last night?

What you thought of the players we picked up after attending the draft night and getting an insight into the recruiters thoughts behind the players.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I won't give a full account, as I've answered a lot here already, and I hope to get future invites to such events (as slim as that may be after my postings here).

Early on in the night the recruiter present gave a brief explanation on how our draft list/rankings is put together and why we don't have a "pure" ranking of the talent terms of best talent.

The example given was that if a club drafted best talent every year at it's picks, it would end up with a list somewhat similar to GWS's. A list stocked with high quality mids and deficiencies elsewhere. So even though we rated Ben Hobbs higher on our list, if both Hobbs and Wilmot were available at our pick, we would have still gone with Wilmot.

So our recruiting team put together a list that is heavily influenced by list and current/future best 22 needs based.

I have mentioned before that Conole has mentioned on podcasts that our draft lists and rankings are influenced by needs. Last nights insights just highlighted that its influenced a lot more than what I previously thought.


At the end of the night when Fagan spoke to us about the kids we picked, when discussing Lohman, he talked about how players need "tricks" to play at afl level, something that differentiates them from every other kid. As most of you know I read pretty much everything on the draft board, so even if I haven't seen a kid (which will go for 98% of the kids each year) I have a bit of knowledge on what type of player he is. A couple of the draft watchers and posters on the draft board were pretty high on Lohman, because he's very fast, very agile, can jump very high, and likes selling candy and turning defenders inside out. and he's tough. Those are his tricks, and Fagan referred to them.


Our recruiting and list management team has said since last year, that we're after speed, run and carry, across all three lines of the team. Well we filled that last night and tonight. It's just that there was a bit of angst with some of the clubs messaging for some people, along the way.


If you look at the younger players in the team, or on the edge of the team, we're starting to build a very different future team, that should play a very different brand of football. It just might be 5 or so years before we really see it full flight.

Wilmot, Lohman and Tunstill all poses speed. So do Sharp, the Coleman brothers, Robertson, Prior, Madden, TBerry, Rayner (on the burst), Bailey and Starcevich. So do both Ashcroft and Fletcher for next year. Our potential future team after Neale, Lyons, Rich and Zorko is going to be fast. A mix of Richmond and Melbourne.

Great insight. Thanks heaps. Can definitely cope with looking like Richmond and Melbourne. I've loved how they've been able to prioritise defence whilst still being thrilling (particularly Melbourne) in attack.

I believe I covered a fair bit in my previous post.

My view before the draft was that this was a pretty deep and good draft. This was largely influenced by quite a few recruiters and draft watchers opinions of the 2019 U16 championships, which a lot of different club recruiters referred to in interviews and podcasts since 2019. It just had little KPP depth, and I mentioned repeatedly I wouldn't be drafting any of the KPP's left on board by our third pick.

Obviously I had a different opinion on the club needs than what our recruiting team did. I believe we needed a half back flanker, a taller inside mid with the ability to break away from congestion and a KPD. But due to the lack of KPP's in this draft, was happy to draft 3 smaller players.

Our recruiter said on night one of the draft that we wouldn't be looking at inside mids, as we still have a lot on our list. My opinion is yes, we have a lot, but most of them are very one paced/slow and not many of them are good runners; Neale, Lyons, JBerry (good runner but one paced), Mathieson, CEY.

I was hoping if the right players were there at our first two picks, we could fill our half back and mid spot, and with the additions of Ashcroft and Fletcher next year, be pretty much set for the next decade in regards to small/medium defenders and midfield. With our third pick, I was expecting there to still be a few good flankers left on board, Then from the 2023 draft we could start to look at KPP's and small/medium forwards for our list.


I know nothing of Tunstill, other than the AFL website lists him at 187cm, so he projects as a good size mid.

Hopefully I can get down to a couple of Wednesdays training sessions to checkout the new boys and academy boys and father sons these holidays.

On CEY, I saw he had nominated for the national draft. Is this simply because we want to re-draft him in the rookie draft, and you have to nominate for all three via a single nomination? (I only learned about this after that utensil-up with those Port players)

Also I was under the impression Fletcher wasn't available til the 2023 draft?

 

[Sanchez365]

The thing about players with pace is if they have decent endurance then they can impact early in their careers on the outside. Maybe we just got our own rozee/durrsma/butters combo.

 

[notting18]

Our recruiter said on night one of the draft that we wouldn't be looking at inside mids, as we still have a lot on our list. My opinion is yes, we have a lot, but most of them are very one paced/slow and not many of them are good runners; Neale, Lyons, JBerry (good runner but one paced), Mathieson, CEY.

I think when the club is assessing the list requirements for midfielders in this draft, they had in the back/front of their minds that Ashcroft and Fletcher will be on the list next year.

 

[Balony_pony16]

I find it funny how people melt after getting attached to players off phantom draft lists.

 

[M Malice]

Ah, I can't actually remember where Goater and Johnson were ranked, sorry.

Would have liked to meet you Zo .... keeping a low profile?

Are you Eric Hipwood, Dom Fay, Mike Whiting, Greg Swann, Chris Fagan or Andrew Wellington?

 

[jjami15]

I find it funny how people melt after getting attached to players off phantom draft lists.

It should all be a bit of fun really. I have no issues people wanting player x or player y. I also have no issues with them getting upset but it’s just the level of angst that they exhibit. Also other posters are allowed to voice their opposing opinions but again understand that it really shouldn’t be taken all that seriously.

Edit: I also don’t think people should purely go on phantoms but this and last year it’s been pretty hard to actually watch any of these players to help build your own opinions.

 

[Clarkythelion]

One thing draft watchers, experts and gurus don't factor into their calculations is what is known inside clubs about player unrest, injuries, personal circumstance and possible trades. Gold Coast might know Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

23

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

is going so the take Mac Andrew at the hope he can play the same style yet the draft pundits call him a 'bolter'. I'm sure there are lots of things about our own Lions players we don't know that would have a bearing on our recruiting. Team needs are those we see on the surface + what medical and recruiting staff see underneath.

 

[dlanod]

On CEY, I saw he had nominated for the national draft. Is this simply because we want to re-draft him in the rookie draft, and you have to nominate for all three via a single nomination? (I only learned about this after that utensil-up with those Port players)

Correct. You need to nominate for the ND to be eligible for the rookie draft.

 

[M Malice]

One thing draft watchers, experts and gurus don't factor into their calculations is what is known inside clubs about player unrest, injuries, personal circumstance and possible trades. Gold Coast might know Ben King is going so the take Mac Andrew at the hope he can play the same style yet the draft pundits call him a 'bolter'. I'm sure there are lots of things about our own Lions players we don't know that would have a bearing on our recruiting. Team needs are those we see on the surface + what medical and recruiting staff see underneath.

The recruiting team put a high premium on character/resilience as well as having a point of difference/high impact/tricks(as briztoon pointed out).. and generally favour Victorian country over Victorian metropolitan draftees, mentioned that a lot of the country boys have already moved away from home into boarding schools so are more likely to be able to adapt to a move interstate.

 

[ZoBlitz]

Would have liked to meet you Zo .... keeping a low profile?

Are you Eric Hipwood, Dom Fay, Mike Whiting, Greg Swann, Chris Fagan or Andrew Wellington?

Yes.

 

[Mighty Lions]

The recruiting team put a high premium on character/resilience as well as having a point of difference/high impact/tricks(as briztoon pointed out).. and generally favour Victorian country over Victorian metropolitan draftees, mentioned that a lot of the country boys have already moved away from home into boarding schools so are more likely to be able to adapt to a move interstate.

The go home factor has always been (& probably always will be) the biggest concern when drafting these young men. There is a lot of analytic work put into how likely it would be for a draftee to want to go back home. That said, no matter how much homework you do on any given player (young or old), that problem will never go away. The stability that the club has at the moment is probably the glue that holds all these boys intact. The closeness of the list is enormous & that goes a long way in keeping them all together.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I heard a lot pre-draft about how Jye Amiss was from Busselton, so he had to make a 6 hour round trip for training and games with East Perth, and hadn't been in an elite program before this year so he has a lot of untapped potential. It turns out all those things apply equally to James Tunstill.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I won't give a full account

That was an abridged version?

 

[briztoon]

What you thought of the players we picked up after attending the draft night and getting an insight into the recruiters thoughts behind the players.

I’ll reply tonight when I have a lot more time.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I LOVED Brisbane's haul, getting two of my favourites in Wilmot and Lohmann.

ModernArtillery writes for Rookie Me Central.

 

[Dalions]

ModernArtillery writes for Rookie Me Central.

They have become 2 of my favourites too.

 

[RoyBoy17]

Happy with our work. Addressed specific needs.
Backline player that can defend and has good rebound ability and scope to push onto a wing. A lot of our defenders are either one or the other.

Taller midfielder that’s looks ultra competitive and has good athleticism.

Forward that looks like Rayner Version 2 which can allow Rayner, McCarthy to perhaps play more mid minutes.

We have got a nice mix. Then next year we go pure mid with Ashcroft and target a KPP. There is also a plethora of ruck options next year so could be a good time to snag one unless Lane and Smith progress well

 

[Balony_pony16]

It should all be a bit of fun really. I have no issues people wanting player x or player y. I also have no issues with them getting upset but it’s just the level of angst that they exhibit. Also other posters are allowed to voice their opposing opinions but again understand that it really shouldn’t be taken all that seriously.

Edit: I also don’t think people should purely go on phantoms but this and last year it’s been pretty hard to actually watch any of these players to help build your own opinions.

yeah I don’t mind opinion and disappointment post draft as it’s fine to have favs. But the anger some display is a bit disturbing lol

it wasn’t that long ago people were disappointed in drafting guys like Zac Bailey

I thinkPeople should focus on looking into what made our recruiters pick certain players and their role going forward.There is heaps of positives with our latest draft class

 

[Quigley]

I have really only seen Tunstill in the WA v SA games and whilst there is a fair bit to work with I do think he is coming from a long way back. He is very much an inside player and he did not find space away from the contest in that game. Inside he hunts the ball well and reads it reasonably off hands. Skills are solid but unspectacular and mostly he just gets the ball moving along. He is a loose limbed mover (think Yeo or Lappin) who will need to add some bulk to play his preferred inside role at AFL level but he does move through traffic nicely. Athletically he has a lot going for him and he does improve the athletic profile of our squad.

I thought the fact that he was one of the starting onballers for WA in the state match was a big positive for how he is viewed by the coaching staff and in the first game he started with a real burst getting a lot of touches early. He has only had one year in an elite program and his development this year would not have been helped by the large amount of travel he had to do to get to games. So I am sure there is upside there but at the moment I am not seeing any particular trait I am in love with with his game.

I now LemmingMaster is a fan of his might be willing to put in his thoughts.

On the night I was disappointed that Bazzo didn't quite make it to us but there is no guarantee he would have been taken anyway. I have no problem passing on Taylor and Draper as personally I did not really rate either of those guys. I would have gone a mature KP to provide the depth we are lacking and if small was the option I would have liked a more mature guy like Clark or Bailey Rogers from WA. Fejo would also have been hard for me to resist.

 

[morsie]

One factor which teh commentators kept harping on was "local drafting" by various teams. Unfortunately we seldom have that luxury.

 

[David C]

Saw a fair bit of melting on the first night when Kai was taken. I'll just post a comment taken from a poster on the Richmond draft board. It doesn't sound like it was much of a reach at all.

"Take Brisbane taking Kai Lohman at 20. It was thought to be a large reach. Yet, multiple teams have since said they’d have taken him between 15 and 20 if they had the pick."

 

[twhowler]

Saw a fair bit of melting on the first night when Kai was taken. I'll just post a comment taken from a poster on the Richmond draft board. It doesn't sound like it was much of a reach at all.

"Take Brisbane taking Kai Lohman at 20. It was thought to be a large reach. Yet, multiple teams have since said they’d have taken him between 15 and 20 if they had the pick."

I guess we'll never know. Looking at our 3 picks

Wilmot seems a very logical choice and not a reach.

Lohman - the $64,000 question is could we have got him later? Presumably we were not sure so we grabbed him. If he is a bust then it has to be a cross for our recruiting. But of course he doesn't have to be better than EVERY other pick after!

Tunstill - a risky pick here as others have said is perfectly fine. If someone like Draper is a gun it might be harder to justify. Would be interesting to know if we were going to take Bazzo - seems a perfect fit, 195cm interceptor. Seems we were prepared to not take a KPD having signed up Buzza for the 2s. Will be interesting to see how the 2s line up. You wouldn't think any of Henry Smith / Darcy Fort / Kalin Lane can play defence. So Tom Fullarton could well be sent back there. I don't hate that as he seems to be someone that struggles to see where the ball will end up. But can he do it?

In a broad sense we addressed our speed issue. I think that's a good thing seeing as we are not a super fast best 22, and we have quite a few slower mids in our nominal 2s side.

As for the in / out, I think it mostly retains the balance of the list, if you factor in Coleman becoming a defender.

The main change is that we have effectively swapped Ballenden, who we were playing as a defender, for Fort who can't do that.

OUT Archie Smith (ruck) IN Kalin Lane (ruck)
OUT Grant Birchall (mid defender) IN Darcy Wilmot (mid defender)
OUT Keidean Coleman as a forward IN Kai Lohman as a forward
OUT Brock Smith as a defender IN Keidean Coleman as a defender
OUT Tom Joyce (mid) IN James Tunstill (mid)
OUT Connor Ballenden (ruck / defender) IN Darcy Fort (ruck)

The biggest imbalance in our list I think now is the number our talls are mostly giants, and that means they can't play defence very well.

Players 200cm or more who I can't imagine as defenders include:

Daniher / Kalin Lane / Henry Smith / Darcy Fort / Oscar McInerney / Hipwood / Fullarton?

7 players in that category seems a bit high for mine. Perhaps I am being pedantic though...