Trades 2021 Round 4 Fantasy Trades

[TedDougChris]

Ok everybody, it’s rant time, buckle in...

Bringing Tex in this week just feels like it goes against everything I’ve ever learnt from this game. A key forward at around $560,000? Yeah nah. As much as the game in 2021 seems to have become a key forward’s paradise (for now) I just don’t think I can do it. The negative break even can be bit deceptive on a player at Tex’s price. A lot of people are saying they just want to ride the price rises, but say Tex scores 70 this week and 70 the next, he will rise by around $48,000 and then $16,000, then he will start losing money if he keeps going at 70 after that. So there’s a real risk that he only makes $64,000 and then needs to be traded again. Meanwhile Robertson and Burgess could be making $100k+ each over the next fortnight, then even more after that, AND no need to burn a trade until they’ve fully fattened.

I was one of the ones that brought in Westhoff one year when he’d started with back to back 150s (might have been 2012 or 2013 at an absolute guess?) to “ride the price rises” and although it wasn’t an absolute disaster it did prove to be less effective than trading in a rookie who makes as much cash if not more, but with the added problem of having a substandard premo to deal with later. If there were no rookies available then Tex would still be a solid play this week, but with Robertson and Burgess both likely to make as much/more cash than him over the next few weeks then I don’t think he’s a must have even though the FOMO is huge even for me.

I feel like the week to bring him in was the week just gone (and kudos to Shadow89 and others who did that... wish I’d gone Tex instead of Butters). That way you had him before others did and you got the benefit of that whopping 136. It would have got you a real jump on the competition. This week a LOT will be targeting him, so there’s very little to be gained over everybody else. I’m the sort of person who tends to zig when others zag, so I’ll be opting for the far less exciting double downgrade this week and hoping North can shut the old boy down to a score of 70 or less.

Rant over, sorry...

I agree - to a certain extent.

Things change, from year to year - and some things dont. We talked about Pendles pre-season, is this the year he drops off his game slightly ?? he's gone 93/107/110 so far this year.

But - with the new rules and Tex's increased mobility etc - he is playing better, as are the Crows. Normally, I'd agree - getting a 560K KPF is a recipe for disaster. I agree that Roberston and Burgess are better long term targets. But the aim is to get below value (rookie, mid-pricers etc) up to premiums. If he makes another 100K in the coming 2 weeks, it's a straight upgrade/downgrade to a forward premium. Yes, everyone will have him - but there is every chance he scores 100 v North (where McKay and Walker are the KPD's) - so it's points and cash generation in a short space of time.

So in two/three weeks, I can effectively get Stephensen to Dunkley (not in two to three years like it's currently taking) when I cull a rookie. One less mid pricer to worry about, one more premium in.

And, if I hadn't been trying to get cash generating rookies in as well as fixing up the obligatory weekly injury curse or defensive rookies (Danger, Rowell, Witts for me, Draper, Caldwell etc for others) - he was the ideal cash grab for this week.

It does depend on circumstances though - as well as timing of trades/matches.

And - it could go horribly wrong if I keep getting injuries and suspensions....

 

[Zevon]

I agree - to a certain extent.

Things change, from year to year - and some things dont. We talked about Pendles pre-season, is this the year he drops off his game slightly ?? he's gone 93/107/110 so far this year.

But - with the new rules and Tex's increased mobility etc - he is playing better, as are the Crows. Normally, I'd agree - getting a 560K KPF is a recipe for disaster. I agree that Roberston and Burgess are better long term targets. But the aim is to get below value (rookie, mid-pricers etc) up to premiums. If he makes another 100K in the coming 2 weeks, it's a straight upgrade/downgrade to a forward premium. Yes, everyone will have him - but there is every chance he scores 100 v North (where McKay and Walker are the KPD's) - so it's points and cash generation in a short space of time.

So in two/three weeks, I can effectively get Stephensen to Dunkley (not in two to three years like it's currently taking) when I cull a rookie. One less mid pricer to worry about, one more premium in.

And, if I hadn't been trying to get cash generating rookies in as well as fixing up the obligatory weekly injury curse or defensive rookies (Danger, Rowell, Witts for me, Draper, Caldwell etc for others) - he was the ideal cash grab for this week.

It does depend on circumstances though - as well as timing of trades/matches.

And - it could go horribly wrong if I keep getting injuries and suspensions....

I like this take as well, truly. I guess it’s a calculated gamble either way, and I’m just not sold on him taking North to the cleaners to the same extent most others are.

A 100k potential (far from guaranteed) price rise for Tex is tempting but it feels like a short term sugar hit at a time of the season when we should still be opting for sustained growth. Two promising available rookies playing their first games for the season in round 3 is a rare gift and it’s not one I want to miss.

Like you said though, it does depend on your specific circumstances and team structure so if Tex fills a need then he’s a valid option

 

[JADED]

Dew said "its obviously Chris next week.. we'll see after that" when he was asked. I think the role is there.. not sure he'll kick 2 goals each week though haha

Oh I'm quite sure he won't. I'd wager that might even be the highest score he'll get for the year.

But, at his price, and guaranteed game time unlike Sharp & Highmore, he'll be an option for D7.

(D7, because I'm saving D8 for Gardner @ Bulldogs and 2019 flashbacks)

 

[JDWCE]

I like this take as well, truly. I guess it’s a calculated gamble either way, and I’m just not sold on him taking North to the cleaners to the same extent most others are.

A 100k potential (far from guaranteed) price rise for Tex is tempting but it feels like a short term sugar hit at a time of the season when we should still be opting for sustained growth. Two promising available rookies playing their first games for the season in round 3 is a rare gift and it’s not one I want to miss.

Like you said though, it does depend on your specific circumstances and team structure so if Tex fills a need then he’s a valid option

This is my take too. It’s a marathon this game and KPD’s have a very poor record at extended periods in fantasy. History could honestly mean jack s**t with these rule tweaks but I would rather bank on history than a hot streak despite the money Tex will make. We all know the constant stream of injuries and suspensions that hit us week on week during fantasy season (AFL season haha) and there’s no guarantee we’ll be able to trade him out at the right time as well. Slight extra risk due to that

 

[freo_leo29]

Witts to Grundy or Gawn?

Gawn going to be value price compared to Grundy

 

[happy_eagle]

Heppell, Young, Witts
Only 2 trades......

 

[Freo_4eva]

Plans might have gone to sh*t already with youngs injury and the dual rucks not working (ie. Meek could be in trouble). The world doesn't want me to trade in tex haha

 

[Dan12]

Is Chapman an option? 73 today. Young injured. Would think he'll have a fairly fantasy friendly time for a while and will just be 280k.

 

[TedDougChris]

Is Chapman an option? 73 today. Young injured. Would think he'll have a fairly fantasy friendly time for a while and will just be 280k.

He's slight. I got him in this week (as desperation) for Highmore. he should have got a few more, received a few FA that were quite dodgy/soft.

he looks good, kicks well - but he isn't a big lad - so will fluctuate a little if Freo don't use him on the outside - as he isn't going to win much contested ball from the looks of him. From what I was told last week, highly rated at Freo and played ok today.

 

[Freo_4eva]

Is Chapman an option? 73 today. Young injured. Would think he'll have a fairly fantasy friendly time for a while and will just be 280k.

He is.. especially with young out. Obe of Few shining lights today

 

[Thetrader15]

Looks Like Uoung and Cogs out.

Swrong survives another week.

Cumming and Hind the targets at this point, depending how much $ Cogs loses and the other two gain.

 

[Gunf]

Witts to Grundy making this forced trade number grr don't wanna count
Second trade will depend on players named/dropped etc

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Tex and Burgess trade targets.....?

.... I think everyone needs to open a window for some fresh air or splash some cold water on their faces.

Tex on fire but he doesn't come cheap now. Not worth the trade-in or you'll need to do a second trade on him within the next 3-4weeks...

Assuming everyone survives tomorrow,
JDG -> Hind
Young -> Robertson.
Should nett $150k or so for next week's forced trades.

Bergman/highmore missed but might come back in so will hold for one more week.

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Young to Drob
JDG to Gaff probably for me

Unfortunate Young gets injured when he was on my chopping block anyways

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Would love to get Tex and ride his 10 goal 200 point haul against NM but i've been fortunate with the fantasy gods and should stick with getting top premo's in plan i got so far

 

[mitchzz]

Dow can gtfo this week. Spud of the highest order.

He was on my bench thankfully

Will go him to Robertson or Waterman and then probably upgrade Young

 

[Tso1967]

Young to Burgess
Witts to Gawn

Could still end up with donut at the back

 

[Chris99]

Young & Cogs our for me. Can't complain as only my 2nd and 3rd forced trades of the year, not nearly as much carnage as others.

Thinking of getting Mills/Ridley in but swans only given up one 100 this year and it was to Tex.

Could also look at Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

29

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

, haven't watched any west coast games, can anyone elaborate on how he's been playing?

 

[MarvinStraighte]

I have a feeling there's going to be quite a few rookies dropped next week. First trade will be Young -> Robertson (via DPP), and I'll hold the second for damage control throughout the rolling lockout.

If there's no forced trades, I wouldn't mind trading in Sloane. He looks rejuvenated, and his next four are North, Freo, Hawks and Giants.

 

[TedDougChris]

I have a feeling there's going to be quite a few rookies dropped next week. First trade will be Young -> Robertson (via DPP), and I'll hold the second for damage control throughout the rolling lockout.

If there's no forced trades, I wouldn't mind trading in Sloane. He looks rejuvenated, and his next four are North, Freo, Hawks and Giants.

Short turnaround times will catch quite a few out in coming weeks - especially those who didn't get to play all last year.

Swans should be least impacted by the latter - but they do have a short turnaround this week.

I think I spend as much time trying to work out when I have to do trades - as I do on who I'm actually selecting.....

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Young & Cogs our for me. Can't complain as only my 2nd and 3rd forced trades of the year, not nearly as much carnage as others.

Thinking of getting Mills/Ridley in but swans only given up one 100 this year and it was to Tex.

Could also look at Tim Kelly, haven't watched any west coast games, can anyone elaborate on how he's been playing?

I got Ridley last week and it is amazing watching him. He plays on every kick out he takes (which is all of them), can take intercepts all day and can partake in junk. Bombers won't be winning like that every week but still good

 

[MarvinStraighte]

Short turnaround times will catch quite a few out in coming weeks - especially those who didn't get to play all last year.

Swans should be least impacted by the latter - but they do have a short turnaround this week.

I think I spend as much time trying to work out when I have to do trades - as I do on who I'm actually selecting.....

I know what you mean. Next week I'll basically just be waiting to see if guys like Highmore, Kozi, Bergman, Campbell and Lazzaro are named.

Has anyone had a look at Fogarty? I assume he's playing midfield, but he didn't have any CBAs in round one or two. He'll be an attractive option if he gets DPP.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Scrimshaw looking good for a weeks time..

 

[11kgm]

* me

Witts
Clark
Highmore
Webster

And only two trades

Butters last week failed

So Witts to Grundy/Gawn andddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd *

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

I'm thinking clark to burgess, and Heppell to Gaff