Draft Expert Chris25's 2021 Young Talent Time

[Chris25]

I might not have any fancy graphics like some people, nor am I getting paid like others. But I'm back for another year. Bit later this year than normal, but I've been posting my rankings on the Fremantle board throughout the season. I've just been avoiding the investment of my own thread, and letting the other draft watchers do the hard yards over the past few months.

2021 Big Board

1. Jason Horne-Francis (184cm, 78kg from SA)
2. Nick Daicos (183cm, 72kg from Vic Metro)
3. Finn Callaghan (189cm, 82kg from Vic Metro)
4. Neil Erasmus (188cm, 80kg from WA)
5. Josh Ward (181cm, 79kg from Vic Metro)
6. Josh Rachele (180cm, 78kg from Vic Country)
7. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (188cm, 70kg from SA)
8. Josh Sinn (186cm, 73kg from Vic Metro)
9. Sam Darcy (204cm, 75kg from Vic Metro)
10. Jye Amiss (195cm, 83kg from WA)

11. Matthew Johnson (192cm, 80kg from WA)
12. Ben Hobbs (183cm, 80kg from Vic Country)
13. Arlo Draper (186cm, 75kg from SA)
14. Mitch Knevitt (193cm, 83kg from Vic Country)
15. Mac Andrew (200cm, 70kg from Vic Country)
16. Matthew Roberts (184cm, 80kg from SA)
17. Josh Gibcus (195cm, 84kg from Vic Country)
18. Josh Goater (190cm, 79kg from Vic Country)
19. Jacob van Rooyen (194cm, 88kg from WA)
20. Tyler Sonsie (181cm, 77kg from Vic Metro)

21. Leek Alleer (196cm, 84kg from SA)
22. Darcy Wilmot (183cm, 75kg from Vic Metro)
23. Brady Hough (189cm, 71kg from WA)
24. Campbell Chesser (186cm, 83kg from Vic Country)
25. Blake Howes (190cm, 79kg from Vic Metro)
26. Zac Taylor (180cm, 74kg from Vic Metro)
27. Jesse Motlop (176cm, 74kg from WA)
28. Ned Long (192cm, 88kg from Vic Metro)
29. Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

(184cm, 73kg from Vic Country)
30. Tom Brown (184cm, 73kg from Vic Country)

31. Connor Macdonald (184cm, 65kg from Vic Country)
32. Alastair Lord (180cm, 76kg from SA)
33. Angus Sheldrick (179cm, 88kg from WA)
34. Josh Fahey (186cm, 76kg from GWS)
35. Rhett Bazzo (195cm, 81kg from WA)
36. Arthur Jones (178cm, 60kg from WA)
37. Mitch Owens (190cm, 85kg from Vic Metro)
38. Toby Conway (204cm, 90kg from Vic Country)
39. Cooper Murley (178cm, 70kg from SA)
40. Judson Clarke (179cm, 69kg from Vic Country)

41. Cooper Beecken (190cm, 73kg from SA)
42. Lachlan Rankin (182cm, 68kg from Vic Metro)
43. Jack Williams (195cm, 91kg from WA)
44. Corey Warner (182cm, 74kg from WA)
45. Eric Benning (196cm, 83kg from WA)
46. Jase Burgoyne (186cm, 65kg from SA)
47. Sam Banks (187cm, 71kg from Tasmania)
48. Lewis Rayson (183cm, 69kg from SA)
49. Joshua Browne (185cm, 77kg from WA)
50. Charlie Dean (195cm, 86kg from VFL)

51. Bryce Watson (183cm, 70kg from WA)
52. Marcus Windhager (183cm, 82kg from Vic Metro)
53. Anthony Caminiti (196cm, 83kg from Vic Metro)
54. Zac Becker (190cm, 92kg from SA)
55. Jamieson Ballantyne (183cm, 79kg from Vic Country)
56. Miller Bergman (188cm, 65kg from Vic Country)
57. Hugh Jackson (181cm, 70kg from SA)
58. Charlie Molan (187cm, 86kg from Vic Country)
59. Jai Serong (192cm, 88kg from Vic Country)
60. Jahmal Stretch (181cm, 62kg from WA)

Realistically the last 15 or so would probably change depending on the day and how I feel, others I'd consider drafting...

SA - Shay Linke, Isaac Birt, Harvey Harrison, Morgan Ferres, Oscar Adams, James Willis, Casey Voss, Tom Lewis, Hugh Stagg, Luca Whitelum
WA - James Tunstill, Greg Clark, Kaden Harbour, Noah Pegoraro, Kade Dittmar
Vic - Justin Davies

Justin Davies

Age

42

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.4

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.2

2star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

9.8

3star

K

4.0

2star

HB

5.8

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

, Joel Fitzgerald, Corey Preston, Paul Curtis
NT - Ronald Fejo, Brodie Lake, Ned Stevens

 

[Joose]

Good job Chris.

Questions

Who may be the big slider and riser.
What selections do you think Freo will do? Assuming picks 8,10, 27 ( after Cerra Trade )

 

[theGav56]

Really interesting Chris. It is going to be fascinating to see how the Cerra trade plays out and what we have to play with. A couple of questions related to this:

- which player who would be available at a potential pick 6 or later best replaces Cerra?

- where would Cerra have been taken if he was in this draft pool?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

11. Josh Sinn (186cm, 73kg from Vic Metro)
12. Matthew Johnson (192cm, 80kg from WA)
13. Arlo Draper (186cm, 75kg from SA)
14. Ben Hobbs (183cm, 80kg from Vic Country)
15. Jacob van Rooyen (194cm, 88kg from WA)
16. Tyler Sonsie (181cm, 77kg from Vic Metro)
17. Josh Gibcus (195cm, 84kg from Vic Country)
18. Mitch Knevitt (193cm, 83kg from Vic Country)
19. Darcy Wilmot (183cm, 75kg from Vic Metro)
20. Josh Goater (190cm, 79kg from Vic Country)

Interested to hear your knocks on this group - what's holding them back from the top ten?

 

[Bastyy]

Hey Chris, love your work

Any potential smokies coming out of SA not talked about as much outside your top 50?

 

[Mutineer]

Hey Chris, love your work

Any potential smokies coming out of SA not talked about as much outside your top 50?

Does Ronald Fejo Jr count, NT over-ager that suited up for West Adelaide this season.

 

[Chris25]

Good job Chris.

Questions

Who may be the big slider and riser.
What selections do you think Freo will do? Assuming picks 8,10, 27 ( after Cerra Trade )

Really interesting Chris. It is going to be fascinating to see how the Cerra trade plays out and what we have to play with. A couple of questions related to this:

- which player who would be available at a potential pick 6 or later best replaces Cerra?

- where would Cerra have been taken if he was in this draft pool?

If I knew who the big riser would be, I'd go early on them now and make myself look like a genius. As for sliders, there's still a lot of time to play out before the draft. Roberts and Draper are two of the bigger names who may go later in the first round than expected, maybe even touch the second. Who knows. Plenty of guys outside the top 8 will have big projected ranges is my guess though, hedging bets against a slide - Sinn, Sonsie, Chesser for example.

In terms of Fremantle, I'll be interested to see what picks we finish trade week with - what we get for Cerra, what we give up for Clark, whether we split an early pick, whether we try to get back into the second and third rounds. The key will be whether we take Amiss early or if we rate van Rooyen/Williams just as highly and bank on getting one in the second round. So the two scenarios would be Amiss and a small with say picks 8 and 10 (Erasmus, Rachele, Wanganeen-Milera, Roberts, Sinn) or we take two of those smalls and go a tall early in the second round. And I can already hear the Fremantle board yelling at me to take a KPF in the first round.

And if we specifically were looking for a Cerra replacement, I'm not sure there's a perfect one available. But Josh Ward could be an option. So too Matty Roberts, Tyler Sonsie, even Campbell Chesser if you view him as a long term midfielder. As for draft age Adam Cerra, I think his range would be the same as back when we took him - somewhere around pick 5.

 

[Chris25]

Interested to hear your knocks on this group - what's holding them back from the top ten?

Well the 7 Victorians in the 11-20 grouping are probably being held back by a lack of exposed form. Whereas guys like Wanganeen-Milera and Amiss have been able to climb ahead with performances. Sinn, Johnson, Draper and Hobbs could all have cracked the top group - and have at times during the year. It just didn't work out that way this time.

But I think Sonsie and Gibcus underperformed a touch when they actually made it onto the field this year. The talent and athleticism is there though, that's why they'll be first round picks. Not because of strong performances. Even without the lockdown, Sinn was struggling to get on the field consistently. As for Hobbs, I always tend to underrate the more inside midfielders. Excellent at what he does, but I've found others to be more influential. Draper has all the talent and potential, but is another who hasn't quite put it all together yet.

van Rooyen, Wilmot and Knevitt would be higher than most would have I imagine. They aren't likely to break into the top 10. Although van Rooyen could have if he actually played all season as a forward. And Goater is maybe a bit of a BigFooty favourite, he has his fans early but that'd be on a gut feel that he continues the trajectory he's hinted at this year.

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

Seven players named 'Josh' and one named 'Joshua' in the top 40 predicted picks.

 

[briztoon]

Seven players named 'Josh' and one named 'Joshua' in the top 40 predicted picks.

A lot of parents were obviously U2 fans.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

If there is to be an unlucky Josh, then Rentsch is likely to be the odd one out.

 

[theGav56]

Well the 7 Victorians in the 11-20 grouping are probably being held back by a lack of exposed form. Whereas guys like Wanganeen-Milera and Amiss have been able to climb ahead with performances. Sinn, Johnson, Draper and Hobbs could all have cracked the top group - and have at times during the year. It just didn't work out that way this time.

Would they be impacted by reduced development as well?

 

[the big lebowski]

Nice list Chris.

Assuming North retains the first pick of night 2, I’m interested in your thoughts on who you like for us from a defensive point of view.

We have lots of good young mids, and lots of young forwards. But the only young defensive player that we have locked away is Mckay. It’s not panic stations as we have McDonald, Turner and Corr for the next 5 years and hall/ziebell for 1 or 2. But I expect most of our draft capital over the next few years to go to this area, be it draft, trade and maybe free agents.

One thing we don’t have is an interceptor, so Alleer and particularly Bazzo look good to me. I also like Wilmot.

 

[Mutineer]

Nice list Chris.

Assuming North retains the first pick of night 2, I’m interested in your thoughts on who you like for us from a defensive point of view.

We have lots of good young mids, and lots of young forwards. But the only young defensive player that we have locked away is Mckay. It’s not panic stations as we have McDonald, Turner and Corr for the next 5 years and hall/ziebell for 1 or 2. But I expect most of our draft capital over the next few years to go to this area, be it draft, trade and maybe free agents.

One thing we don’t have is an interceptor, so Alleer and particularly Bazzo look good to me. I also like Wilmot.

Have you looked closely at Aleer's foot skills?

And they're not likely to be any better in the pressure cauldron of the AFL.

 

[Chris25]

Hey Chris, love your work

Any potential smokies coming out of SA not talked about as much outside your top 50?

Not really. I think Spain is the most likely to surprise and succeed - outside of the big names. Lord and Whitelum will draw some interest, but I had them listed already.

Isaac Birt and Hugh Stagg will be talked about. Jordan Lukac has shown enough to maybe get a rookie spot.

Ned Carey has always interested me. I’m hoping they can get him into the side for the next WA match. He’s big, strong and versatile. Just having no luck with injury. Unfortunately the state coaches just don’t like Matt Dnistriansky as much as me, so he won’t get a shot it seems.

 

[Chris25]

Nice list Chris.

Assuming North retains the first pick of night 2, I’m interested in your thoughts on who you like for us from a defensive point of view.

We have lots of good young mids, and lots of young forwards. But the only young defensive player that we have locked away is Mckay. It’s not panic stations as we have McDonald, Turner and Corr for the next 5 years and hall/ziebell for 1 or 2. But I expect most of our draft capital over the next few years to go to this area, be it draft, trade and maybe free agents.

One thing we don’t have is an interceptor, so Alleer and particularly Bazzo look good to me. I also like Wilmot.

Any of the WA talls could come into consideration - Bazzo, van Rooyen and Williams. And I do very much like Alleer. As Mutineer suggested, his kicking isn’t a feature of his game. And outside of intercept marks, he doesn’t get a lot of ball. But he’s developed so rapidly this year that I’m confident there’s more to come. And what he can do is enough to accept the flaws - like how Alex Pearce at Fremantle is an excellent defender, but a liability by foot.

Darcy Wilmot and Campbell Chesser would be options as medium defenders. Keep the South boys together and develop Arlo Draper down back is an option too. Tom Brown is likely to go higher than I have him, he’d be a chance around there.

 

[Swiggy]

Great work mate.

I’d love Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera & Amiss at freo

 

[LemmingMaster]

Rhett Bazzo will be a needs based pick that could go higher depending on needs.

 

[theGav56]

Rhett Bazzo will be a needs based pick that could go higher depending on needs.

Are you suggesting he would jump into a higher band than Chris is rating him? It isn't a phantom draft, so of course being taken at a different pick is likely.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Are you suggesting he would jump into a higher band than Chris is rating him? It isn't a phantom draft, so of course being taken at a different pick is likely.

I personally see him on the same level as a lot of players Chris has ranked higher. Just saying that if someone rates the needs of a tall defender as a priority, then I could see him being drafted a lot higher than where Chris has him. Bazzo reminds of a little of Sam Taylor in his draft year.

 

[theGav56]

I personally see him on the same level as a lot of players Chris has ranked higher. Just saying that if someone rates the needs of a tall defender as a priority, then I could see him being drafted a lot higher than where Chris has him. Bazzo reminds of a little of Sam Taylor in his draft year.

I assume that as we speak Chris25 is actually working on a Phantom Draft which factors in club needs. That'll shuffle things around a bit.

 

[Quigley]

I personally see him on the same level as a lot of players Chris has ranked higher. Just saying that if someone rates the needs of a tall defender as a priority, then I could see him being drafted a lot higher than where Chris has him. Bazzo reminds of a little of Sam Taylor in his draft year.

I was on the Taylor bandwagon as well his draft year and I like Bazzo a lot this year as well. If he falls to where a few like Chris have him I think he will be an excellent get.

 

[Quigley]

Did you consider Sam Banks Chris?

He is another who I think might end up as a bargain for someone. Div 2 MVP a couple of years ago. Injury issues have kept him under the radar this year but he has talent imo. December birthday too from memory (actually from memory so could be wrong) which has appeal as far as upside goes.

 

[Chris25]

Rhett Bazzo will be a needs based pick that could go higher depending on needs.

I would agree. Like I said, the 20-40 group is fairly even and Bazzo easily could have been higher. Anyone who needs a KPD but doesn't want to spend a top 5 pick on Gibcus will no doubt be looking at him in the second round. That area of the draft is all about sliders or needs picks.

I assume that as we speak Chris25 is actually working on a Phantom Draft which factors in club needs. That'll shuffle things around a bit.

Guess I need to start work on a phantom draft...

 

[Chris25]

Did you consider Sam Banks Chris?

He is another who I think might end up as a bargain for someone. Div 2 MVP a couple of years ago. Injury issues have kept him under the radar this year but he has talent imo. December birthday too from memory (actually from memory so could be wrong) which has appeal as far as upside goes.

I have Banks with an April birthday? Doesn't limit the upside though, what with the time off through injury and lack of top level play.

He's my top rated Division 2 player - has the size, foot skills and enough versatility to get drafted. I said mostly those same things about Patrick Walker last year, and he went as a rookie. I'm just not across the Division 2 guys enough at the moment to put him up there too high. I'm hoping he gets up for the game against SA next month.