AFL 2022 AFL Round 1

[Johanpetro]

Alright fellas, first Train of season 2022, and boy have we got a good one.

You might even say Gulden-esque in his Round 1 goalscorer value, Joe.

View attachment 1344502

[Best odds I could find for AGS were on TAB, the rest are Sportsbet]

North were spanked by Melbourne in the unofficial practice match (although resting some key players).

North were then beaten comfortably by Sydney, despite the return of senior players e.g. Simpkin, LDU.

In the first match (Melb), Horne didn't kick a goal, because he was busy racking up touches in the midfield.

View attachment 1344510

[Stats via TheBigHorne]

Against Sydney, Simpkin and LDU returned, meaning less CBAs and midfield minutes for the kids.

I don't know how many CBAs Horne had vs Sydney but his clearances were down and his goals were up.

He kicked 2.2 against Sydney while his teammates were getting well beaten around him.

The Horne is no stranger to goals. He kicked three in the SANFL prelim last year.

His rookieme profile:

The teenager has booted 20 goals in 29 league matches, including a couple of hauls of three. He is clever in the forward-50, has a very natural goal sense and, importantly, is prepared to back himself in and pull the trigger when within range. Not one to just rest inside 50, Horne-Francis is also capable of working high up the ground and using his speed on the way back.

Here's how I'm hoping it plays out:

i) Simpkin, LDU, Powell, Greenwood and TT share most of the CBA duties. None get injured.

ii) The Horne is allowed to play most of the game up forward.

If these two things happen, talent will take care of the rest, and Rd 1 will again prove to be a goldmine for punting boards full of degenerates.

Even if Horne somehow plays mostly midfield time, he kicks at least one goal on debut, you know this.

It's the fairytale story, always happens, #1 pick at lowly club kicks a goal on debut.

The play

I'm going 10u on AGS, and then 10u spread across 2+ through to 5+.

And I've got a few cheeky multis on Horne goals into Bruest goals. Our backline is still woeful.

You heard it here first, lads. Buy your tickets before they run out.

If you don't, and this train takes us back to Gulden Town, you'll wonder why you didn't jump aboard.

It's good to be back, my friends.

I missed you degenerates more than you might think.

Here's to hoping for a fun 2022 for all of us

TOOT flipping TOOT LETS GO! Tailing

 

[Ohh Ok]

Alright fellas, first Train of season 2022, and boy have we got a good one.

You might even say Gulden-esque in his Round 1 goalscorer value, Joe.

View attachment 1344502

[Best odds I could find for AGS were on TAB, the rest are Sportsbet]

North were spanked by Melbourne in the unofficial practice match (although resting some key players).

North were then beaten comfortably by Sydney, despite the return of senior players e.g. Simpkin, LDU.

In the first match (Melb), Horne didn't kick a goal, because he was busy racking up touches in the midfield.

View attachment 1344510

[Stats via TheBigHorne]

Against Sydney, Simpkin and LDU returned, meaning less CBAs and midfield minutes for the kids.

I don't know how many CBAs Horne had vs Sydney but his clearances were down and his goals were up.

He kicked 2.2 against Sydney while his teammates were getting well beaten around him.

The Horne is no stranger to goals. He kicked three in the SANFL prelim last year.

His rookieme profile:

The teenager has booted 20 goals in 29 league matches, including a couple of hauls of three. He is clever in the forward-50, has a very natural goal sense and, importantly, is prepared to back himself in and pull the trigger when within range. Not one to just rest inside 50, Horne-Francis is also capable of working high up the ground and using his speed on the way back.

Here's how I'm hoping it plays out:

i) Simpkin, LDU, Powell, Greenwood and TT share most of the CBA duties. None get injured.

ii) The Horne is allowed to play most of the game up forward.

If these two things happen, talent will take care of the rest, and Rd 1 will again prove to be a goldmine for punting boards full of degenerates.

Even if Horne somehow plays mostly midfield time, he kicks at least one goal on debut, you know this.

It's the fairytale story, always happens, #1 pick at lowly club kicks a goal on debut.

The play

I'm going 10u on AGS, and then 10u spread across 2+ through to 5+.

And I've got a few cheeky multis on Horne goals into Bruest goals. Our backline is still woeful.

You heard it here first, lads. Buy your tickets before they run out.

If you don't, and this train takes us back to Gulden Town, you'll wonder why you didn't jump aboard.

It's good to be back, my friends.

I missed you degenerates more than you might think.

Here's to hoping for a fun 2022 for all of us

This kid is an absolute gun, we'll happily take you him over your hands in two years time. Thanks!

 

[mouncey2franklin]

This kid is an absolute gun, we'll happily take you him over your hands in two years time. Thanks!

Nobody cares about the distant future, all we care about is Sunday.

Are you buying first class tickets for the Horne Train or are you going for the el cheapos at the back?

First class starts at 10u. I bought my tickets have you bought yours?

 

[Atavistic]

Alright fellas, first Train of season 2022, and boy have we got a good one.

You might even say Gulden-esque in his Round 1 goalscorer value, Joe.

View attachment 1344502

[Best odds I could find for AGS were on TAB, the rest are Sportsbet]

North were spanked by Melbourne in the unofficial practice match (although resting some key players).

North were then beaten comfortably by Sydney, despite the return of senior players e.g. Simpkin, LDU.

In the first match (Melb), Horne didn't kick a goal, because he was busy racking up touches in the midfield.

View attachment 1344510

[Stats via TheBigHorne]

Against Sydney, Simpkin and LDU returned, meaning less CBAs and midfield minutes for the kids.

I don't know how many CBAs Horne had vs Sydney but his clearances were down and his goals were up.

He kicked 2.2 against Sydney while his teammates were getting well beaten around him.

The Horne is no stranger to goals. He kicked three in the SANFL prelim last year.

His rookieme profile:

The teenager has booted 20 goals in 29 league matches, including a couple of hauls of three. He is clever in the forward-50, has a very natural goal sense and, importantly, is prepared to back himself in and pull the trigger when within range. Not one to just rest inside 50, Horne-Francis is also capable of working high up the ground and using his speed on the way back.

Here's how I'm hoping it plays out:

i) Simpkin, LDU, Powell, Greenwood and TT share most of the CBA duties. None get injured.

ii) The Horne is allowed to play most of the game up forward.

If these two things happen, talent will take care of the rest, and Rd 1 will again prove to be a goldmine for punting boards full of degenerates.

Even if Horne somehow plays mostly midfield time, he kicks at least one goal on debut, you know this.

It's the fairytale story, always happens, #1 pick at lowly club kicks a goal on debut.

The play

I'm going 10u on AGS, and then 10u spread across 2+ through to 5+.

And I've got a few cheeky multis on Horne goals into Bruest goals. Our backline is still woeful.

You heard it here first, lads. Buy your tickets before they run out.

If you don't, and this train takes us back to Gulden Town, you'll wonder why you didn't jump aboard.

It's good to be back, my friends.

I missed you degenerates more than you might think.

Here's to hoping for a fun 2022 for all of us

Is this the bet that pays for the rest of the year?

 

[Nuggetz]

I would’ve thought they’d be happy to wait a week so he can kick it at home? In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if they purposely left him on 3-4 goals

This is played at ANZ v SCG (both syd and both will have a big swans turnout). If he's close to it, they are definitely feeding him. They don't want this to drag on nor care whether it's at anz or scg imo

 

[Nuggetz]

Good to see ya's back here!

I think Brisbane should smash the line of -11.5, no Oraz, Dixon & Grey with recent niggles, beat them by 49, 37 & 48 last few times. Cameron kicked 4.4 last time against them, seems to be in form so got him for goals. McStay will be good for a couple playing Hippy's role, kicked 2.3 last week & 4 the week before, he's @5 for 3 & @13 for 4 on TAB. Took an early couple on SB & likely to board the Boak train too. (I'm noticing the Same Player Goal Multi's on SB are now combining for less than the highest leg now, I guess the jig there's up is it?)

BL (-11.5)
Cameron 5+
McStay 2+
@40.5 SB PWD

BL (-11.5)
Cameron 4+
McStay 2+
@14 SB PWD [@18.88 Neds BOOST but no promos there yet]

I'll likely stay away from Carlton V Richmond, Blues are good one week then shithouse the next until they prove otherwise. GWS V Sydney's another toughie, probably slightly edging towards the Swans with Greene out, Franklin @10 for 5+ SB is worth a roll of the dice surely..

SYD Win
Franklin 5+
Taranto 2+
@60 SB PWD

SYD Win
Franklin 5+
Gulden 2+
@43 SB

Good Luck this season again fellas

on Mcstay 3+ @5.80 on neds. Neds promo is up now

 

[Atavistic]

JHF's odds have come in at SB. The power of Mouncey.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Gut feeling, speculative play. It has no chance of coming in.............

John Noble 23+ Disposals (Collingwood) V Saints

Charlie Curnow 18+ Disposals (Carlton ) V Tigers

Odds too good to pass up: 66.50

Whereabouts? The more variety in player props the better

 

[andwhenitcomes]

James Harmes

22

James Harmes

Age

30

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

10.0

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

2.4

4star

D

16.3

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

8.9

4star

M

2.9

3star

T

1.6

3star

CL

1.9

4star

D

10.6

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.2

2star

to kick 2+ @ 11.00 (Pointsbet), been drifting forward more in the pre-season. Kicked 3.0 and 1.0

 

[Del125763]

Whereabouts? The more variety in player props the better

Betright

www.betright.com.au

 

[Johanpetro]

James Harmes to kick 2+ @ 11.00 (Pointsbet), been drifting forward more in the pre-season. Kicked 3.0 and 1.0

There’s no Harmes in having a crack at this at those odds

 

[Pacman82]

On Horne for stations 3 & 4, still @51 for 4 at TAB

 

[mookieb]

Loaded up on GC +4.5 in addition to +23.5 at the smaller books that haven't moved. Lines already in favour of GC at the main ones. This is the list of players that are a very good chance of missing:

Backs
Cole
Witherden
Duggan

Mids
Nic Nat (covid protocols?)
Kelly (has covid)
Sheed
Shuey (training might play)
Yeo
Kelly

Forwards
Allen
Ryan (covid protocols?)
Darling
Cripps

I'm struggling to see how they can put a competitive team on the park if some of the question mark players miss.

 

[Punter88]

who would you feel "safer" to put in a multi
lions or saints?

 

[GROTTO]

View attachment 1344502



First class starts at 10u. I bought my tickets have you bought yours?

 

[Del125763]

Betright

www.betright.com.au

Betright had a $100 bonus when I signed up as well, so keep that in mind. (expiry of roughly 1 month)

You can also put in requests for bets via Discord.

 

[iluvparis]

who would you feel "safer" to put in a multi
lions or saints?

Lions. Saints are super untrustworthy

 

[Punter88]

Lions. Saints are super untrustworthy

Thanks might go all in

 

[dontlimitme]

Thanks might go all in

1000 UNITS RAZ!

 

[Atavistic]

Thanks might go all in

Go all in, then cash out and change teams a few minutes before the bounce.

 

[GROTTO]

1000 UNITS RAZ!

Go all in, then cash out and change teams a few minutes before the bounce.

Im tailing, I will let you know after the game if I cashed out.

 

[maskmcgee]

The total points predict this will be the 2nd lowest scoring 1st round, 1 point per game higher than 2019, since 1964, except 2020.

 

[_ASP3X]

First AFL bet of the year: Bontempelli AGS - 1u @ $1.84 (TopSport)

Let's have a good year on the punt.

 

[MRCB12]

Neds offending ‘any team v any team.’ With highest score winner declared the winner.

Interesting concept. Can also multi them too by the looks.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
2u - Bontempelli 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
Bets itself 20/26 on this last season and a 3/3 vs the Dees. Just taking it easy as I’m still waiting to see how the Dogs line up with all of the depth they have available. Already up at 26.5 on PointsBet.

Carlton vs Richmond
2u - Carlton +14.5 - $1.90 - UniBet
Richmond are another team I’m viewing as a slider this year, especially at this early point in the season. Vlaustin and Grimes look set to miss whilst Balta spent the preseason playing as a forward. Whilst midfield depth also looks weak with Lambert and Graham set to miss early. Squad depth is also low with a number of players leaving in the offseason. Carlton won’t have Walsh, but I think adding Cerra, Hewett, Charlie Curnow

35

Charlie Curnow

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

and having a fit and healthy looking Cripps is a very fair trade off. For me this is Carlton’s year to build into the 8. They’ve got some top end talent around the board and I think we may witness a bit of a changing of the guard for a fixture that the Blues have been belted in for years.