AFL 2022 AFL Round 2

[FrankGrimes]

Smith out, does that mean libba back in the middle?

 

[jikost]

Smith out, does that mean libba back in the middle?

Yep, for this week at least. Scott will play half forward like Libba did last week.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

2u Fogarty AGS @ $2.25 (pb)

2u Owies 2+ @ $4 (pb)

.5u Scott 4+ @ $266 (sb)

.5u Fogarty 4+ @ $235 (sb)

Scott to play Liberatore's half forward role

Fogarty to play forward in absence of Jack Martin

19

Jack Martin

Age

31

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

Owies value too good to ignore

 

[Del125763]

Is the Carlton Fogarty any relation to the Adelaide Fogarty?

 

[GROTTO]

Is the Carlton Fogarty any relation to the Adelaide Fogarty?

No.

 

[BloodRet]

Macrae 3+ @171 just cos I like blowing coin

 

[Del125763]

1u Shaun Higgins 4+ @ $296 (SB multi trick)

1u Oliver Florent 4+ @ $235 (SB multi trick)

You had a great run last week.

But im afraid this one cant come through for Florent, not in the wet.

I am happy to be proved wrong.

 

[FadingTheFave]

De Koning: Hoping for a breakout game here. Had 3 shots for 0.2 last week, at 203cm can stretch the Dogs defence:

ATG $2.55 (Lads)
2+ $6.50
3+ $29
4+ $175
5+ $1000 (multiples at 365)

 

[Del125763]

With Kennedy out for the Eagles, it makes Dixon super value for goals.

Kicked at least three goals in each of his last four WAFL matches last season including a bag of five.

You might say that AFL defenders are better than WAFL defenders and I would agree with you.

But North don't have many (if any) AFL quality tall defenders this week.

McKay is out due to concussion, Tarrant walked out the door, Walker is barely AFL level and might miss this game anyway.

We'll have Aidan Corr (195cm), Lachie Young (189cm) and Jack Ziebell (188cm) as our 'key defenders'.

Dixon is 196cm btw. He played nine WAFL matches in 2021 and kicked 19.4

He returned from injury for the last three matches of the season, kicked 11.2

That is some good goal accuracy. Shouldn't need many chances.

1u each on Dixon 3+, 4+ and 5+ @ $7, $21, $81 (all TAB).

If Darling comes in, I'll also put some coin on him for 5+.

The power of mouncey


TAB now shortened all those goals bets on Hugh Dixon

3+, 4+, 5+ at odds of : 3.75, 5 and 15


The value has been smashed now.


Im thinking the TAB must be reading this thread?

 

[Del125763]

Not exactly a massive train but im getting on it:

Tim Taranto- Plays his 100th game against richmond this week, booted 1.3 last week, so lets hope he celebrates in style

2+ $2.63 (2U)
3+ $6.50 (1u)
4+ $21 (1u)

kicks 2 and its free rolling

He kicked 4 against them last year in Melbourne.

So thats a bit of an omen there.

 

[Punter88]

5u - Carlton +13.5 - $2.05 - Dabble

Grab the price now. Will be able to grab a healthy risk free middle. Only grab at $2+

ok eddie bets

 

[tangolikelama]

Like this

 

[Del125763]

These are the PointsBet spreads for the Stat Multiplier for tomorrow nights games (Kicks x Handballs x Goals). I have included the number of occurrences these players have landed on for the 2021 and 2022 matches cumulative:




With $1 stakes, these are my tips

Bontempelli- NO PLAY
Dunkley - NO PLAY
Naughton- UNDER 62
Macrae- OVER 66
English- NO PLAY
Hunter- OVER 42
Vandermeer- NO PLAY
Weightman- NO PLAY


Cripps- UNDER 163
Kennedy- UNDER 102
Walsh - OVER 83
Fisher- UNDER 62
Harry McKay

10

Harry Mckay

Age

28

Ht

200cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.4

5star

D

6.6

1star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

2.0

5star

- OVER 43
Curnow- NO PLAY

 

[Del125763]

i dont mind Walsh going the over in the stat multiplier, in his 1st game back. Quirky thing while crunching the numbers, Walsh averages more handballs than kicks in 2021.


Also if PointsBet are reading this , could we have spreads for : Hewett, Silvagni, Liberatore and Ugle-Hagan.

Cheers

 

[balmainforever]

ok eddie bets

no worse than you cashing out on one team and jumping on the opposition

 

[Play On Advantage]

These are the PointsBet spreads for the Stat Multiplier for tomorrow nights games (Kicks x Handballs x Goals). I have included the number of occurrences these players have landed on for the 2021 and 2022 matches cumulative:

View attachment 1352593


With $1 stakes, these are my tips

Bontempelli- NO PLAY
Dunkley - NO PLAY
Naughton- UNDER 62
Macrae- OVER 66
English- NO PLAY
Hunter- OVER 42
Vandermeer- NO PLAY
Weightman- NO PLAY


Cripps- UNDER 163
Kennedy- UNDER 102
Walsh - OVER 83
Fisher- UNDER 62
Harry McKay - OVER 43
Curnow- NO PLAY

Does Kennedy's recent form accumulating and hitting the scoreboard worry you with the UNDERS or do you based it mostly on history so far?

Had 7 scoring shots in his last two games and racked them up. Does Walsh impact that..

 

[Punter88]

loaded up on carlton but will cash out and bet live buldogs
13u Carlton straight up

current record after 1 round: 2-13
-47u

 

[Del125763]

Does Kennedy's recent form accumulating and hitting the scoreboard worry you with the UNDERS or do you based it mostly on history so far?

Had 7 scoring shots in his last two games and racked them up. Does Walsh impact that..

Kennedy has every chance of doing what he did in Round 1. Yep its a good point that you make.

Im basing more on the fact that he has only scored 2 goals or more , 2 times in his last 20 games. Even if he kicks a goal , i dont think he can rack up disposals like he did in Round 1. (and yes he did play very well against the Tigers last week ) I think I would be prepared to cop a loss, if he kicked Exactly 1 goal.

Speaking of Kennedy he is 4.50 to score 2+ goals, when reflecting upon its still pretty poor odds for a guy that plays mostly midfield.

 

[Del125763]

Another interesting note with the stat multiplier, the last home and away game last year, Patrick Cripps

9

Patrick Cripps

Age

31

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

16.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.8

5star

CL

7.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.9

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

6.3

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

has 0 kicks and 17 handballs.

 

[freo_leo29]

Walsh back from injury, a chance to rest forward?

Risky bet but I've joined the Fogarty train already

Walsh AGS 2.75 PB
2+ @11 PB
3+ @51 PB

bet so I'm ahead with 1 goal, he kicked atleast 1 in 8 games last year, 2 in 1 game and 3 in 1, so odds are about right but worth a crack if he gets a rest up forward.

 

[Del125763]

Walsh back from injury, a chance to rest forward?

Risky bet but I've joined the Fogarty train already

Walsh AGS 2.75
2+ @11
3+ @51

bet so I'm ahead with 1 goal, he kicked atleast 1 in 8 games last year, 2 in 1 game and 3 in 1, so odds are about right but worth a crack if he gets a rest up forward.

Tailed I dont mind those odds at all.

All from PointsBet But Walsh 2+ is paying $12

 

[Del125763]

Cmon TopSport , if you guys are reading this, improve your margins for the big forwards. 20%+ too big for McKay and Naughton. I know we all have to make a living...........


Just think of it in terms of roulette, if you were playing the 0-00 (zero double zero table), every time you play the margins are in favour of the house at around 5.26%.

Its too big and gives the punter no incentive for margins like that.

 

[Del125763]

I mean I know we are not going to get 5% margins for Exact Goals but, why not offer some incentive even say 15% for all players?

They are purposefully picking the big names and increasing the margins in their favour- which sucks.

 

[BloodRet]

Rozee 2
Fogarty 3
Wright 3
L Ryan 2
@78 lads

 

[ShaunWDT]

Dont mind something small on Cordy AGS, was horrendous last week but should be playing forward again with the side they have named.