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AFL 2022 AFL Round 4

Line Winners?

  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .

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LukeParkerno1 said:
De Goey is very crucial though, I'm holding off WCE games till teams are named. Line won't move much anyway and I'd want to know which players are back
Click to expand...

Chances are Sidebottom is out too. When he went off the ground, the Cats resurgence started. Cox should be back this week.

Even with a few changes, I rate Collingwood far higher than Freo, and on their shared home ground, Freo still demolished WC. We know WC have issues with travel, and even if players come back from Covid protocols, they'll be rusty. Can't help thinking they are down on confidence and pretty deflated with the Covid protocol situation too. Collingwood will be reeling from giving up a big lead and losing to Geelong. Playing this WC team a week after losing that game is a gift.
 
AFLFootyChick said:
Chances are Sidebottom is out too. When he went off the ground, the Cats resurgence started. Cox should be back this week.

Even with a few changes, I rate Collingwood far higher than Freo, and on their shared home ground, Freo still demolished WC. We know WC have issues with travel, and even if players come back from Covid protocols, they'll be rusty. Can't help thinking they are down on confidence and pretty deflated with the Covid protocol situation too. Collingwood will be reeling from giving up a big lead and losing to Geelong. Playing this WC team a week after losing that game is a gift.
Click to expand...

Sidebottom out is an issue that’s half their midfield and they are coming off a very taxing game
 
AFLFootyChick said:
Chances are Sidebottom is out too. When he went off the ground, the Cats resurgence started. Cox should be back this week.

Even with a few changes, I rate Collingwood far higher than Freo, and on their shared home ground, Freo still demolished WC. We know WC have issues with travel, and even if players come back from Covid protocols, they'll be rusty. Can't help thinking they are down on confidence and pretty deflated with the Covid protocol situation too. Collingwood will be reeling from giving up a big lead and losing to Geelong. Playing this WC team a week after losing that game is a gift.
Click to expand...
Also a major red flag for Pies chances. He's hopeless
 

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Atavistic said:
Goal-kicker markets up at SB and Neds. Can't see anything I like. Will wait for Mouncey and Selim trains.
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Gulden 3 ($8), 4 ($26) and 5 ($101)

Been getting 3-4 shots every week could get more against a rubbish side
 
I know they are complete horseshit but Nick Larkey is $2 for 2+ on sb (he's $1.24 on tab for 2+). He's kicked 2+ 9 out of his last 10 matches... the only time he didn't was when he kicked 1.3 against Richmond late last year. LDU will be back too so their midfield won't be quite as terrible this week.
 
Some TAB bets for you all:

Jordan Clark 20+ @ 3.00
Lachlan Murphy AGS @ 2.30
Lachlan Murphy 2+ @ 8.50
Lachlan Murphy 3+ @ 25.00
Lachlan Murphy 4+ @ 51.00
Jake Stringer 20+ @ 7.00
Jake Stringer 25+ @ 26.00
Jye Caldwell 20+ @ 2.60
Jye Caldwell 25+ @ 9.00
Thomson Dow 20+ @ 4.50
Thomson Dow 25+ @ 26.00
Jack Ross 20+ @ 3.50
Jack Ross 25+ @ 26.00
Jack Lukosius AGS @ 1.95
Joel Amartey AGS @ 2.05
Wil Powell 20+ @ 4.50
Wil Powell 25+ @ 26.00
Jeremy Sharp 20+ @ 3.75
Jeremy Sharp 25+ @ 19.00
 
My eyes dart to kozzie picket on Thursday night. I backed him last week but he didn't come through but I think he's due, and I don't want to miss it when he is. Poort have been very poor ;)
2+ $3.30
3+ $9.50
4+ $31
 

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jikost said:
I know they are complete horseshit but Nick Larkey is $2 for 2+ on sb (he's $1.24 on tab for 2+). He's kicked 2+ 9 out of his last 10 matches... the only time he didn't was when he kicked 1.3 against Richmond late last year. LDU will be back too so their midfield won't be quite as terrible this week.
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Gonna be wet I assume that’s why
 
Noah Anderson averaged 28.4 disposals at Metricon last year and 19.5 in games at other stadiums.
 

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Picture2.png The one that went 104.5 points over it's line was when North beat Melbourne in 2016 136-131.

The lowest which went 83.5 under was North v. Western Bulldogs 3 weeks later when North won 61-45.

137 of the lowest 138 total points closing lines were in 2020. The only exception was 45th lowest Gold Coast v. Sydney in 2016.

296 of the games were within 5.5 and -5.5 of their line. 59 were basically exact, either 0.5 or -0.5

50% of the games were between +15.5 and -20.5 of their line.

Of the around 1600 games played in that period 89 more games went under than over.
 
Last edited:
I reckon away teams are going to win most games this week.
5 leg head to head multi
Melbourne W
Brisbane W
W.Bulldogs W
G.W.S W
Saintkilda W
@19.12 Boosted SB
 
I'm posting this here for posterity

Sydney train ticket prices.png

I'm guessing that if Franklin isn't named, some of these odds will come in.

North's best small / medium defender, by some margin, is Luke McDonald.

Charlie Cameron had something like eight shots on goals despite McDonald being sent to him.

In other words, North's defenders cannot stop opposition small / medium forwards when the team is getting belted.

Ziebell is the worst 'defender' currently getting a game at AFL level, the rot starts there.

Meanwhile Simpkin is being asked to play as the #1 midfielder when in reality, he's more suited being #3 or #4.

It is hard to tell on TV but reports from the North board are that Simpkin wasn't pushing back to help defense against the Lions.

The wheels have fallen off this North outfit, it is just a question of, will the Swans capitalise?

And if so, which is the value train of the weekend?
 
Last edited:
Its not the coach said:
I reckon away teams are going to win most games this week.
5 leg head to head multi
Melbourne W
Brisbane W
W.Bulldogs W
G.W.S W
Saintkilda W
@19.12 Boosted SB
Click to expand...
Why no North?

You could boost that $19 to closer to $200 by adding in the Noble Kangaroos.

46e648b2ed4767732880581fad94d800
 
Hayward kicked 3 goals last year against them and is in good form(3 goals 3 behinds last year against the same team). The value at $1.83 is about the right price based on conditions. Without Buddy, that price would be a really good price as he will be the main focal point along with Heeney.

Watched Gulden closely this weekend, he is going to be a very good footballer for 10+ years.

Fancy maybe a mid to grab a goal or 2.

I dont trust any of the Roos forwards for goals but there may be a bit of value if you go on your gut. No form guide can help you with picking Roos goalscorers (bar Larkey). I will look at the stat multiplier closer to the game, with heavy conditions, if the ball goes into the forward 50, the Roos may get a bit more of the ball if and when it gets in there. Roos midfield wasn't disgraced last week, it was the forwards that didnt show enough hunger to keep it inside their 50.

The current line for points at the SCG is 161.5 points. Probably need to monitor the weather closer to the game to make an opinion on goalscorers.
 

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