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AFL 2022 AFL Round 4

Line Winners?

  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .

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Anyone with an idea on what Dan Houston's roll will be tonight? He snagged a couple goals a couple weeks ago. Wondering if he might be on the end of a couple
 
TryAnHit said:
They are very poor. Got cut back to 25$ right away on fantasy markets
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Similar experience here. Cut back to tiny amounts. They will suspend market for ages, move price 10c, reject at new price and so forth. I could understand it if I was picking off complete errors but just trying to having a punt.
 

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NYRB said:
AFL stat Multiplier Spreads. Odds courtesy of PointsBet (who I think now are officially the number 1 betting website for AFL- and I dont work for PointsBet):

View attachment 1365142


Tips using $1 stakes for the match and some reasoning behind the tips:

Boak- UNDER 152 (going to back my gut like I did last week and say he doesnt score here)
Wines- OVER 120 ( i think he can score a goal in this game, did so against the Demons last year)
Butters- OVER 82 (focus will be more on Marshall and i sense he can snag a couple )
Amon- NO PLAY
Rozee- OVER 59 (similar reason to Butters)
Powell-Pepper- NO PLAY
Georgiades- NO PLAY
Houston- OVER 43 (can continue his good start to 2022)
Motlop- NO PLAY
Drew - NO PLAY
Marshall- NO PLAY
Mayes- NO PLAY
Lycett- OVER 22 ( can score a goal like he did last week )
Petracca- UNDER 250 ( he did achieve a score of 700+ twice last season, ironically one of those games was against the Power. But im going to back my gut and say he goes under here)
Oliver- NO PLAY
James Harmes- NO PLAY
Langdon- NO PLAY
Gawn- NO PLAY
Neal-Bullen - UNDER 46 ( the table suggests this line is a bit too high)
Viney- NO PLAY
Weideman- NO PLAY
Fritsch- OVER 43 (can snag his 2+ goals with the calibre of players around him)
McDonald-OVER 43 ( his performances last 2 years suggest can cover)
Jackson- OVER 43( similar to McDonald )
Pickett- OVER 35 ( coming back home to SA, he will be keen to put a show in front of his family)
Spargo- NO PLAY
Jordon- OVER 23 (cheap play for a low line)
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Tailing Kozzie and Jackson OVERS
 
IDIG said:
Gonna be absolutely cracking conditions tonight. Not a breath of wind or cloud in sight (last i checked). Lets hope for a shootout with Weidemann kicking another PB.
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Im only a few kms east of the ground, there is a gentle breeze in otherwise beautiful conditions outside, a little cool.
 
Selim said:
what up lads another exciting round of betting ngl not feeling great about this game melbourne i havent won a cent on this year and port well the opposite team has won me money never them.

who we feeling for trains
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annie-gravy-train-gif.24917
 

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Fun Facts with Grotto

In 2022, every "new" coach, coaching his first time for the Club has won the game and covered the line.

5 teams going into the game with a new coach as underdogs won the game.

Interestingly Caracella coaching the Dons for the first time will go in as favourites against the Crows on Sunday.
 

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PointsBet have lowered down the spreads for the Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Handballs x Goals) for Travis Boak

Current spread is: 130-152 (it was 152-178 last night)
 
Just a quick input into Travis Boak Stat Multiplier (kicks x handballs x Goals) under the adjusted lines gives me this:

1649319121668.png

I still think he goes UNDER that line.

If you want a bit of insurance, take Boak to kick 1+ Goal at $2.20. His goal output has dried up a bit the last couple of years. That line is way too high for me.
 
Could see Boak kicking 1 but definitely cant see him kicking 2+ more.

2+ Goals on Him at 9.50 or thereabouts is not the best bet. (I admit i was on him for goals in Round 1 but wont make that mistake here)
 
2.5u - 1st Qtr under 40.5 - $1.90 - TAB
Both teams coming into this gaining some defensive cover (Clurey and Lever) whilst also missing some key offensive firepower (Dixon and Brown). So far in 2022 4/6 games these two sides have played in have gone under this total in the first quarter. With the 0-3 start is likely Port try and turn this one into a grind and make things difficult for the Dees who have potential to start flat after their great start. Dew factor may also play into the game and make conditions tricky. See the match total heading under but favour this spot due to the situational factors. If it does blow open it’ll happen later on in the game.

2.5u - Brayshaw under 23.5 disposals - $1.82 - Ladbrokes
Playing the percentages for this one, inflated line due to a big one last week. He was able to rack up 30 uncontested possessions, which included 19 uncontested marks, there’s no way a 0-3 Port Adelaide side should allow him this sort of freedom. Including this season and last season Brayshaw has gone under this line in 22/28 games.

2u - Jackson AGS - $1.80 - 365
Should float in as the third tall tonight against a slightly undersized Port defence that is without main man Aliir Aliir. Although Port are 0-3 this is one that Melbourne won’t be taking lightly, in bigger games I expect to see Gawn taking majority of the ruck contests, which is how I see this one beginning tonight.

2u - Butters over 23.5 disposals - $1.90 - TopSport
Had 27 and 29 in round 1 and 2 before having 13 in round 3. In round 3 he was smashed into by one of his own players in the first quarter on 5 disposals, this led to him spending time off ground and playing the rest of the game sore. This also led to a decrease in CBAs down to 35% from 58.5% in the first two rounds. Is the third best midfielder at Port but expecting him to stand up tonight with the like of Wines and/or Boak potentially receiving defensive midfielders.

3u - Sydney SU, North +65.5, Under 172.5 - $1.81 - Ladbrokes
Few layers to this bet, but essentially Sydney should get the job done for this one. The other two legs are leaning a little on the weather, currently Sydney is experiencing severe weather warnings including flood warnings, they’re set to experience rain right up until and throughout this match. This rain should bring the two teams closer together, Sydney rely on dry weather conditions for their swift ball movement which will become difficult in their conditions. They are also without perhaps their best asset in these conditions in Papley. LDU is looking set to return for North which will provide some added grunt, whilst the rest of the North side should show an inspired effort after being embarrassed on the weekend.
 

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AFL 2022 AFL Round 4

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