AFL 2022 AFL Round 9

[Del125763]

PointsBet Stat Multiplier Spreads for Suns v Freo (Kicks x Handballs x Goals):

View attachment 1400468

Some of the plays and some reasoning behind each play (using $1 stakes):

Mundy OVER 45 ( Think there is a genuine mispricing here, Mundy should be around the mid 80s' or higher, very happy to take at this spread)
Rowell OVER 33 (Posted 200 last time Freo played here. He also polled 3 Brownlow votes in 2020 against the same team at the same ground.)
Ainsworth OVER 55 (Can oblige with his 2 goals or so today)
Holman OVER 30 (Can oblige with at least a goal today)
Weller OVER 33 (Will be keen to get one over his former employers today)
Rankine OVER 43 (His average of 53.75, suggests there is a still a big gap between his very good and bad. But I can see him kicking a couple or more today. Wet weather conditions suit players of his ilk)
Swallow OVER 30 (again his average over the past 2 years and spending more time in midfield, means this too is a good get for me)
Brayshaw UNDER 90 (This line is a tad high given his past couple of years averages)
Colyer OVER 26 (Like Mundy has a relatively higher proportion of OVER/UNDER over the last 2 seasons. am happy to take him at a low line)

Results of the Suns v Freo pre-game tips using $1 stakes:

Mundy -$45
Rowell -$33
Ainsworth -$55
Holman -$30
Weller -$33
Rankine -$43
Swallow +$12
Brayshaw +$90
Colyer -$26

Net Result from the match -$163

 

[jikost]

Australian actor? Err... my confidence in this guy kicking 4 is wavering.

 

[BloodRet]

Australian actor? Err... my confidence in this guy kicking 4 is wavering.

View attachment 1400787

Let’s hope he dives for a few frees. Tailed.

 

[BloodRet]

Petracca 4 @21

Fritsch 5 @7.75

Pickett 5, 6 @21, 56

Spargo 5 @226

 

[Bazza97]

Fritsch 4+
Petracca 2+
Neal-Bullen AGS
$10.50 SB

Fritsch 5+
Petracca 2+
Neal-Bullen AGS
Cripps AGS
$41.50 powered to $49 SB

 

[dontlimitme]

remember richmond kicked 25.18 vs the eagles 2 weeks ago in perth and now they are up against ****ing melbourne. just bet all of melb trains. west coast will be lucky to kick 8 goals lol, the melbourne defence is nuts

 

[Drapatch]

Tailed mate

Hope it lands

I owe you from last night, I tailed the swans multi you had @ 9.50 and did a safe version of the lions multi @11

 

[tangolikelama]

Gawn 5+ @91

 

[MRCB12]

Petracca 2
Spargo 2
Harmes 2
Brown 2
WCE U47
Melb O119

Bonus @67.20

 

[dontlimitme]

Picket 2+/Spargo AGS/Neal Bullen AGS/Jackson AGS @ 9.34 (NEDS)

 

[Selim]

Tailed Dixon 2,3

Fritsch 3 brown 3 Gawn 2 Pickett 2 @12.75

Ryan 3 Darling 1 Winder 1 Cripps 1 @33

Bit dodgy typing it soz hard at the game

 

[BloodRet]

Picket 2+/Spargo AGS/Neal Bullen AGS/Jackson AGS @ 9.34 (NEDS)

TAILED

 

[dontlimitme]

Ryan 3 Darling 1 Winder 1 Cripps 1 @33

that should honestly be like 2000:1 lol

 

[Selim]

that should honestly be like 2000:1 lol

That’s what I’m saying legit just put 5 bucks on for shits and giggles

 

[BloodRet]

Petracca 2 Spargo 2 mcdonald 2 @17

 

[Selim]

Also Fritsch 6 @12.25 Ned’s

 

[tangolikelama]

Picket 2+/Spargo AGS/Neal Bullen AGS/Jackson AGS @ 9.34 (NEDS)

Tailed - lets goooo

 

[Del125763]

West Coast to Kick 2+ Goals every quarter @ $10

Yes West Coast are crap but at home, expect them to come out attacking even against this strong Melbourne defence.

Melbourne will win but at that price I cant pass it up, especially being at home , in good weather.

 

[Robo87]

playing hard for last game-
1u/0.5u petracca 2/3 @3.10/7.50
1u/0.5u/0.5u gawn 2/3/4 @ 3.60/9.50/29
1u/1u/0.5u/0.5u spargo 1/2/3/4 @1.88/4.80/16/75
3u/1u/0.5u/0.5u pickett 2/3/4/5 @1.80/3.50/8.25/21
3u byo Ben Brown and Bayley Fritsch to combine for 6+ goals. @1.77 sb
1.5u byo Ben Brown and Bayley Fritsch to combine for 7+ goals. @2.50 sb
1u/0.5u dixon 2g/3g @8/34

sgm roughies-
1u sgm - gawn, petracca, spargo ags @3.98 ts
1.5u sgm- witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 2g+ @3.75 sb using sb's 'bet return' if 1 leg fails.
1u sgm- witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 3g+ @7.40 sb boost
0.5u sgm- witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 4g+ @16 sb
0.25u sgm- witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 5g+ @38 sb
0.5u sgm- spargo ags, witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 2g+ @6.50
0.5u sgm- spargo ags, witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 3g+ @11.50
0.5u sgm- spargo ags, witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 4g+ @27
0.25u sgm- spargo ags, witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 5g+ @72.50
0.25u sgm- spargo 2g+, witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 2g+ @16.25
0.25u sgm- spargo 2g+, witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 3g+ @28.50
0.25u sgm- spargo 2g+, witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 4g+ @73.50
0.2u sgm- spargo 2g+, witherdon 20+, petracca O29.5, picket 5g+ @151

Picket 2+/Spargo AGS/Neal Bullen AGS/Jackson AGS @ 9.34 (NEDS)

1u tailed @9.53 TS

 

[Nuggetz]

Gawn/Petracca/Neal-Bullen 2+ @50 TS

 

[BloodRet]

tractor

 

[Del125763]

Petracca doesn't mind playing in Perth

 

[dontlimitme]

god melbourne are going to crush them lol

 

[Robo87]

pickett!

 

[dontlimitme]

deadset should kick 200