2022 French presidential election - 10 & 24 April

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spinynorman

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France's election campaign is well under way, with the first round election just two weeks away. Currently it looks like a near certainty that Macron will be the first President to win a second term since Jacques Chirac, but there are still some points of interest in the election - as the Republicans and the Socialists, the two parties that dominated the Fifth Republic for four decades, both languishing (with the Socialists polling at 2%, half of the Communist Party's polling numbers). There are five candidates who have looked like having anything like a shot at making the second round:

Valérie Pécresse - one of the more popular ministers from the Sarkozy Government, Pécresse is the Republican candidate for President. Their polling numbers are holding up reasonably all things considered after the corruption scandals involving Sarkozy and 2017 presidential candidate François Fillon, and Pécresse was polling in second place at the start of the year (with some polls suggesting she could defeat Macron in the Second Round). She has been crowded out, however, by the far-right on one hand and Macron on the other, and she's been left unable to get the cut through that one might expect. Instead she is currently battling it out for fourth alongside...

Éric Zemmour - a far right journalist, Zemmour has the endorsement of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has split from his daughter as she isn't hardline enough. Zemmour has sought to give intellectual heft to traditional far right bigotry, claiming to be a Gaullo-Bonapartiste. He believes that immigration is destroying France, and that acceptance of homosexuality and women's right to abortion are seeing the European French become a minority to the Muslims in the country (who are mostly there due to the country's history of imperialism, but that doesn't stop him). Zemmour's January conviction for inciting hate against child migrants (saying "They are thieves, they are murderers, they are rapists, that’s all they are, they must be sent back") only bolstered his standing in the polls, with right-wing free speech champions (on issues they agree with) gravitating towards him. Zemmour's longstanding support for Putin, however, badly backfired post-Ukraine invasion and now has him drifting away from...

Jean-Luc Mélenchon - the good boy of French politics, and only hope for the left at this election, Mélenchon has begun a surge after polling 4th in both the 2012 and 2017 elections. Compared in the Anglosphere to Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn, Mélenchon was a Mitterand-era Socialist politician before splitting from the party in 2008, and becoming hyper-critical of Hollande's centrism. He was less than 2% of the vote away from making the Second Round in 2017, and his break through in to the second round here would allow for a return to a traditional left-right election. While he struggled early on to make any headway with this election, his polling in the last month has increased to see him push ahead of the previous two *heads, with one still standing in the way...

Marine Le Pen - since her father shocked everyone and made it into the final two in 2002 (and subsequently was crushed in an 82-18 landslide), the hereditary title of Leader of the far-right National Front fell to Marine. Since replicating her father's feat in 2017, although with a much closer Second Round result, Le Pen has sought to soften her image somewhat, renaming the party National Rally and expelling her father from the party. Her embrace of economic populism has helped her stay ahead of Zemmour and other rivals to the far right crown, Le Pen has managed to avoid her praise of Putin hurting her chances so far. She looks most likely to place second, and have a rerun of 2017 against...

Emmanuel Macron - campaigning as a centrist in 2017, there is little question now of Macron's right-wing tendencies. Tax cuts to the wealthy, ongoing wars with unions and placing himself one degree to Le Pen's left on immigration and Islam, Macron has been a typical Third Way politician. Nonetheless, his approval ratings are reasonably good by French standards (Hollande, his predecessor, once achieved a 4% approval rating), and he has been bolstered by the praise for his response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, some cracks appear to be appearing in this, however he is certainly getting through to the Second Round, with polls indicating he will currently receive between 55% and 65% against his four likely opponents.

It seems a fait accompli, but will the global discord throw up any further surprises in the race? We will see in two and four weeks!
 

Upstart Swan

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Mélenchon could make ground with his promise to bring in price controls/freezes. But he has always promised to withdraw France from NATO. That's going to lose him some support in the current climate.
 
Traditionally, times of global turmoil has favoured incumbency.
It's hard to see Macron losing from here as his backers would have a lot of ammunition from those sympathetic to Putin, and there is no genuine left-wing challenger (the Melen just doesn't seem to have broad appeal)
 

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spinynorman

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Second round polling is taking a...concerning turn.
 

spinynorman

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We've already got enough of these complete *******s in charge about the place, could do with a bit less of it...

The turn came when Macron announced he was going to raise the retirement age. Two polls have Le Pen only two points behind Macron.

Enlightened centrists, who believe their "common sense" approach is the key to winning elections and governing, have no idea.

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This Reuters site is good showing different polls.

Emmanuel Macron’s lead over his main opponent, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, has narrowed to less than 5% in the week of the first-round vote. Hard-left contender Jean-Luc Mélenchon has climbed to the third spot, with the far-right's Éric Zemmour and conservative challenger Valérie Pécresse a few points behind. Voter surveys show Macron would win a second-round runoff against any of his rivals, albeit by a narrower margin in some scenarios than that of his 2017 victory.

2022-04-09_132556.jpg
 

Upstart Swan

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This Reuters site is good showing different polls.

Emmanuel Macron’s lead over his main opponent, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, has narrowed to less than 5% in the week of the first-round vote. Hard-left contender Jean-Luc Mélenchon has climbed to the third spot, with the far-right's Éric Zemmour and conservative challenger Valérie Pécresse a few points behind. Voter surveys show Macron would win a second-round runoff against any of his rivals, albeit by a narrower margin in some scenarios than that of his 2017 victory.

View attachment 1367205
So it looks like Le Pen's support is rising at the same rate Zemmour's and Pécresse's support is falling, ie Le Pen taking votes of other right/far right candidates.
 
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Mélenchon could make ground with his promise to bring in price controls/freezes. But he has always promised to withdraw France from NATO. That's going to lose him some support in the current climate.
Price controls are effing idiotic. Is humanity still that stupid to believe thats a good thing? did we learn nothing from the past?

melenchon is so far left he is basically far right at this point
 
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The turn came when Macron announced he was going to raise the retirement age. Two polls have Le Pen only two points behind Macron.

Enlightened centrists, who believe their "common sense" approach is the key to winning elections and governing, have no idea.

FP16hd2WUA47Pp_
The enlightened centrists are right that its good policy.

complete utter idiots though in putting it foward before an election. They should stop treating the public like their rational intelligent humans. Just treat them like the idiots that the far right does. I.e. Dont tell the public how you will pay for your expenses. Agree?
 

dusty1234!

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Good on PS and Green for not backing Melenchon and destryoning any chance of a lefitst candidate you idiots.
Only thinking about themselves
 

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Looks like Macron will get back in again if Mélenchon's followers do as he has asked.

"You must not give a single vote to Marine Le Pen," he warned his supporters, but unlike other candidates, he pointedly did not back the president instead. Later in the evening, Mélenchon activists gathered outside his campaign HQ thinking he might even come second, but it was not to be.
Making up more than a fifth of the vote, Mélenchon voters could decide the final round of this election, yet many of them may just sit the second round out and abstain.

A renewed battle for votes is under way. Marine Le Pen can count on supporters of Eric Zemmour, whose more hardline nationalism won him fourth place and 7%. Nationalist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan has also backed her. She can already count on an impressive 33% of the entire vote.

Mr Macron's team is planning a series of big rallies and major TV appearances. Most of the other candidates on the left have backed him, as has Valérie Pécresse, but one-time Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal said the president now had to "earn" victory.

It was already clear from Mr Macron's speech that he planned to target Ms Le Pen's close links with the Kremlin. Although she has condemned Vladimir Putin's war, she visited him before the previous election in 2017 and her party took out a Russian loan.
He wanted a France that made alliances with great democracies to defend itself, he said, not a state that would leave Europe and have only populists and xenophobes for allies.
 

spinynorman

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The enlightened centrists are right that its good policy.

complete utter idiots though in putting it foward before an election. They should stop treating the public like their rational intelligent humans. Just treat them like the idiots that the far right does. I.e. Dont tell the public how you will pay for your expenses. Agree?

France is as wealthy as it's ever been in its history - even moreso than its Bonapartist glory days. A President who eliminated a wealth tax and then makes ordinary people work longer isn't one driven by good policy, he's one driven by protecting the wealthy at the expense of the rest. And that people see this inherent contradiction mean the risk of them siding with someone who provides an answer to the problem, however empty and hateful, over the person who insists that they're too idiotic and irrational to understand their cleverness.
 

Upstart Swan

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Looks like Macron will get back in again if Mélenchon's followers do as he has asked.
In the 2017 election about half of Mélenchon's supporters voted for Macron. The rest abstained or didn't vote at all. Maybe more will vote this time if they think Le Pen's a big chance of winning.
 
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In the 2017 election about half of Mélenchon's supporters voted for Macron. The rest abstained or didn't vote at all. Maybe more will vote this time if they think Le Pen's a big chance of winning.
unless most of his supporters vote for macron then we have a hard right anti globalist putin lover in control of the second most powerful country in europe during a russian invasion. It will be the start of the end of liberalism and democracy.
 

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TV debate between Macron and Le Pen tonight.
Le Pen was out of her depth in the one they had four years ago, we'll see whether she does any better. She's trying to appear less hard line but her brand of conservative nationalism doesn't look so great all of a sudden, Macron can thank Putin for that.
Macron's biggest worry is not coming across as an arrogant d*ck. If he can stay cool and focus on the issues he should get through okay.
 
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France is as wealthy as it's ever been in its history - even moreso than its Bonapartist glory days. A President who eliminated a wealth tax and then makes ordinary people work longer isn't one driven by good policy, he's one driven by protecting the wealthy at the expense of the rest. And that people see this inherent contradiction mean the risk of them siding with someone who provides an answer to the problem, however empty and hateful, over the person who insists that they're too idiotic and irrational to understand their cleverness.
I agree the wealth tax removal was bad. Terrible in fact. Le pen is never ever bringing in a wealth tax though. She wants to reduce taxes further.

france may be as wealthy as it has been but its still far behind a number of other european countries (11 in fact) in gdp per capita terms. Its middle of the road.

retirement ages do need to rise. The retirement age was set when life expectancy was 70. It was only expected to provide 10 years of welfare. Now the life expectancy is 84. It provides welfare for more then double its intended period. its not sustainable with all the baby boomers hitting retirement age. Its going to force significant cost upon the youth in terms of higher taxes if baby boomers dont work an extra 5 years. baby boomers have had more then enough free hand outs. Its time they stop burdening other generations.
 

spinynorman

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Thankfully, Macron has won.

Hopefully 2027 can stave off the far right, as Le Pen achieved an 8% swing to her in the run-off compared to 2017. With Macron unable to run a third time (and his party really being only really about him), and the two historic parties of government having collapsed to less than 5% of the vote each, it's going to be interesting (and hopefully not troubling!) to see who fills the vacuum. But for today, celebrate the defeat of the far right!
 

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Slovenia also had an election and looks like the incumbent right-wing government have been defeated in a landslide.


I wonder if there is some shift that is happening in Europe where the flirtation a lot of nations have been involved in with right-wing nationalists is losing support.
 

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