List Mgmt. 2022 Trade Thread - Part II

[The Punter]

You couldn't be serious could you?

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He's taller and more versatile than Hartigan.

Darcy Gardiner is shorter but younger. Looks like more of what we already have.

I believe a proper back up to Howard needs to be 195cm+. Otherwise we can cover with what we already have (Wilkie, Battle, Highmore, etc.)

 

[Max the great]

He's taller and more versatile than Hartigan.

Darcy Gardiner is shorter but younger. Looks like more of what we already have.

I believe a proper back up to Howard needs to be 195cm+. Otherwise we can cover with what we already have (Wilkie, Battle, Highmore, etc.)

But he's a horrendous footballer. Who cares how tall he is?

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[The Punter]

But he's a horrendous footballer. Who cares how tall he is?

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IMO he's no worse than Hartigan.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Miles off!
Clark and Hill are contracted.
Look what Freo just did to Lobb. They basically told him to suck it up and see out your contract. We can do the same.

If they really want those players, then cough up the draft picks!

Its getting kind of sad, our supporters now fully expect that contracted players can walk from the club and get us peanuts.
The same contracted player that cost us a small fortune in picks to pry from his previous club.

They think that making certain players "gone" will make our team stronger.

If they are right we might as well fold because we're on a path to nowhere.

 

[MordySaint]

Its getting kind of sad, our supporters now fully expect that contracted players can walk from the club and get us peanuts.
The same contracted player that cost us a small fortune in picks to pry from his previous club.

They think that making certain players "gone" will make our team stronger.

If they are right we might as well fold because we're on a path to nowhere.

We have know been told that Hill is going nowhere... I pretty much believe that now.

Clark has his best mates at the club, I think he will stay because of that. If he can put in a solid preseason, he could go through the roof.

Now to get Acres back!!!

 

[gringo2011]

Saw this post on Reddit which I thought was pretty good. Credit goes to U/chookie94.

“The moaning from Saints fans this off season is at unbearable levels and the grand finalists hasn't even been decided yet.

Lots of clubs are losing genuinely good players - like top 5 at their club quality of player. We have a fringe player who has multiple players in front of them in the pecking order as a small forward or as a half back, and it is the end of the world. Losing a 25 year old who is yet to cement a spot isn't going to be hurting any future success. It's the type of player we need less of. I'd hate to lose Clark but if we can get a good pick for him, I can see why they would do a trade. Someone who has barely played for 18 months leaving isn't going to make our on field performance worse because they haven't been contributing on field recently anyway/
Player like Jones, Billings and Butler are played because they are better players than the "youth" you want us to develop getting 12 disposals at Sandringham each week. Jones played some good football in his first 2 years for us but struggled to regain from mental health leave this year. Before Billings was injured, he was one of our best players. But a debilitating foot injury last year and hamstring issues this year hampered him but he is a much better player than we would get in return. Butler is a solid small forward. If we traded him, all we would be doing is trying to find someone exactly like him to add to the list. Fans whinge that they want us to be better but then want us to trade away someone who makes us better for s**t picks.

We won 2 less games than Richmond this year despite playing 4 of the top 6 twice while they didn't play a top 8 side twice. Yes the 2nd half of the season was disappointing but the burn it down, start again whining happing right now is just exhausting. We need to add some players - another key forward and some explosiveness to the midfield would be ideal - but we aren't that far off being a finals side.”

Is that Premo? He's got some points but eating away depth and players on the cusp of playing good footy is not good management and the side is playing some of the ugliest boring footy in the game. There is heaps wrong and that attitude of just shrugging your shoulders and accepting mediocrity is why we don't really change even when nothing works.

Lethlean has been at the club as long as GT had in charge of the side. GT took us from the bottom of the ladder to the top. Lethlean has kept us in stasis. We are operating in such a slow pace we are almost not moving. Collingwood has rebuilt and played off once since we played them in a GF, rebuilt and are close again. Dogs twice in the same period.

Realistically we should be burning the place down but we've become so conditioned to mediocrity and not performing we excuse everything they do. There is real potential for us to go either way. I hate being told to sit down and shut up as well.

 

[ScrappyDo]

We have know been told that Hill is going nowhere... I pretty much believe that now.

Clark has his best mates at the club, I think he will stay because of that. If he can put in a solid preseason, he could go through the roof.

Now to get Acres back!!!

Clarks best mate is LDU if memory serves. And last time it was noted he'd moved in with Jack Lonie.

 

[gringo2011]

The more l think about it the more l come around to Hunter never becoming the player we think he might be.
Every young potential star has a ravenous approach to their physical conditioning as it's the one thing that can be done at any time outside of club duties. Has Hunter been cruising on talent these last years? I think probably, begrudgingly, yes. With all his time off he should be ripped as all *.
And where do they play him when Coff returns whilst Chito and Windy want time.
I absolutely hate it. HATE it.
But those new boys have got the stuff and the club need to bulldoze a path through the non performers to put them in the 22 every week.

I'd still hold. I think his age gives him a real chance of becoming a very high end player. If you're trading him for a player that is already better than him it kind of makes sense but to start the process again and not know what you've got for another 5 years from a lesser draft pick seems to make zero sense. To me they want to find currency to trade out without losing ground and because of injury we won't miss him short term.

They have neglected drafting to get Hill in and now they are getting reviewed they are trying to bulk up our under 23 squad which is one of the smallest in the league.

The idea is to build the best list not look ideal on list demographics.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Saw this post on Reddit which I thought was pretty good. Credit goes to U/chookie94.

“The moaning from Saints fans this off season is at unbearable levels and the grand finalists hasn't even been decided yet.

Lots of clubs are losing genuinely good players - like top 5 at their club quality of player. We have a fringe player who has multiple players in front of them in the pecking order as a small forward or as a half back, and it is the end of the world. Losing a 25 year old who is yet to cement a spot isn't going to be hurting any future success. It's the type of player we need less of. I'd hate to lose Clark but if we can get a good pick for him, I can see why they would do a trade. Someone who has barely played for 18 months leaving isn't going to make our on field performance worse because they haven't been contributing on field recently anyway/
Player like Jones, Billings and Butler are played because they are better players than the "youth" you want us to develop getting 12 disposals at Sandringham each week. Jones played some good football in his first 2 years for us but struggled to regain from mental health leave this year. Before Billings was injured, he was one of our best players. But a debilitating foot injury last year and hamstring issues this year hampered him but he is a much better player than we would get in return. Butler is a solid small forward. If we traded him, all we would be doing is trying to find someone exactly like him to add to the list. Fans whinge that they want us to be better but then want us to trade away someone who makes us better for s**t picks.

We won 2 less games than Richmond this year despite playing 4 of the top 6 twice while they didn't play a top 8 side twice. Yes the 2nd half of the season was disappointing but the burn it down, start again whining happing right now is just exhausting. We need to add some players - another key forward and some explosiveness to the midfield would be ideal - but we aren't that far off being a finals side.”

Yet another apologist who obviously watches stats and not games. He also rates Billings so clearly has no ******* idea what he's on about.
Reminds me of a few in here TBH.

 

[gringo2011]

Its getting kind of sad, our supporters now fully expect that contracted players can walk from the club and get us peanuts.
The same contracted player that cost us a small fortune in picks to pry from his previous club.

They think that making certain players "gone" will make our team stronger.

If they are right we might as well fold because we're on a path to nowhere.

Gags sells low and buys at top dollar. He's the reverse Bell or Dildo. If you were to buy anything we sell on the open market you'd get screwed to the wall and we pay superstar money and trade capital on guys who would be lucky to get any more than Seb Ross from most other clubs. His greatest achievement to some is not paying too much for Crouch who was a free agent at a rebuilding club according to some on here.

 

[ScrappyDo]

I'd still hold. I think his age gives him a real chance of becoming a very high end player. If you're trading him for a player that is already better than him it kind of makes sense but to start the process again and not know what you've got for another 5 years from a lesser draft pick seems to make zero sense. To me they want to find currency to trade out without losing ground and because of injury we won't miss him short term.

They have neglected drafting to get Hill in and now they are getting reviewed they are trying to bulk up our under 23 squad which is one of the smallest in the league.

The idea is to build the best list not look ideal on list demographics.

I'd still hold all 2016s and after.
I'd lose Hill for a good pick, JB and Highmore for upgrades. That is all.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

As much as I love a good stat think my head is going to explode.

I don't like stat's for that sort of thing , not a big enough sample. ( And the most common number thing is crazy, best our stats man avoid playing roulette ).

Ollie Wines: Pick 7.
Lachie Neale: Traded. ( originally pick 58).
Fyfe x2 Pick 20.
Tom Mitchell Traded ( originally F/S )
Dustin Martin Pick 3.
Dangerfield Traded ( originally Pick 10 ).
Priddis : Rookie
G Ablett Jr x2 : F/S and Traded
Cotchin : Pick 2
Sam Mitchell : Pick 36
Swan : Pick 58
Judd x 2 : Pick 3 and Traded
Adam Cooney : Pick 1
Bartel : Pick 8

Its not the be all and end all either.
Would you rather draft Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna or Adam Cooney?

One stat i have noticed , is that first round picks are less likely to be a total failure ( get delisted sometime down the track ).
You can get good players late in the draft. Wilkie, Sam Fisher, Marshall, Jack Steven are examples.
But if you are going to take a lot of later picks ffs don't hang onto them forever unless there is a pretty good light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[MordySaint]

Clarks best mate is LDU if memory serves. And last time it was noted he'd moved in with Jack Lonie.

Mmmm ...there's your link to North Melbourne then.... ...Living with Jack Lonie... interesting snippet of info

I don't want Clark to leave, he's too good a player and about to hit his sweetspot.

 

[Veer Right]

It's pretty straightforward.

8 out of 23 brownlow winners coming from only 10 picks (ie the top 10), is actually a very high strikerate=

0.8 brownlow winners per pick.


15 out of 23 brownlow winners coming from picks 11-58 + zone + fs may seem like more- but that's just because that's waaay more chances to pick a brownlow winner than 10.

Literally 5 times more chances to pick a brownlow winner infact than top 10.

58-11 = 47 picks, plus fs and zone = at least 50 picks.

So the strikerate for that is 15 winners in 50 picks = 0.3

Almost 3 times lower than the top 10 strikerate (0.8).


Those stats are proof that if you want a brownlow winner- your clear best shot is a top 10 pick.

0.35% chance per pick vs 0.3% chance per pick

As Gringo stated, forget who actually won and look what the 10 in the brownlow looks like each year. High picks unsurprisingly dominate.

 

[Veer Right]

Yet another apologist who obviously watches stats and not games. He also rates Billings so clearly has no ******* idea what he's on about.
Reminds me of a few in here TBH.

Fully agree. A lot of that guys points are a load of horse shit but can't be assed going over it.

 

[The Boar]

They will be getting some pressure from the fans if it's a 15 year+ rebuild. I don't think the footy department and board will survive another couple of years out of finals

We shouldn't need a full tank-mode rebuild though because of our list profile. Our stars are mid 20s, rather than retirement age.

So-
If we can carve out players like Hill, Long and maybe Clark this year- we add 4 Top 30 talented youngsters without a HUGE impact on-field. That keeps us competitive for finals (if our Coaches pull their fingers out).

Just bit by bit for 3 years. Each year target 3-4 Top 30 picks. I think it'll make us more competitive if we draft well, look at the impact of NWM, Owens and Windy.

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Joffaboy]

Gags sells low and buys at top dollar. He's the reverse Bell or Dildo. If you were to buy anything we sell on the open market you'd get screwed to the wall and we pay superstar money and trade capital on guys who would be lucky to get any more than Seb Ross from most other clubs. His greatest achievement to some is not paying too much for Crouch who was a free agent at a rebuilding club according to some on here.

Remind me which contracted player Gags has sold low? Oh that right you can't.

More outright garbage shitposting. You really have an issue with reality.

 

[MordySaint]

Remind me which contracted player Gags has sold low? Oh that right you can't.

More outright garbage shitposting. You really have an issue with reality.

Acres

 

[BrutThough]

Remind me which contracted player Gags has sold low? Oh that right you can't.

More outright garbage shitposting. You really have an issue with reality.

He also hasn’t brought in everyone at top dollar either.

 

[The_Steadier]

0.35% chance per pick vs 0.3% chance per pick

As Gringo stated, forget who actually won and look what the 10 in the brownlow looks like each year. High picks unsurprisingly dominate.

I don't know what you are getting at.

Sure, i was a little clumsy calling it 0.8 winners per pick and not 0.8 chance of a winner per pick.

But my point remains whatever you want to call it- not calling it 'chance' is just semantics- doesn't change anything.

0.8 strikerate for top 10 is way higher (almost triple) than the 0.3 rate for picks 11-58 + zone + fs.


If you want to be pedantic:

Top 10 strikerate:

23 years of drafts = 230 top 10 picks total.

Brownlow medal winners from top 10 in 23 years = 8

8 / 230 = 0.035 winners per pick.


Vs

Picks 11-58 + fs + zoned strikerate

23 years of drafts = at least 1,150 picks total in the range picks 11 to 58 + zoned + fs.

Brownlow medal winners from pick range 11-58 + zone + fs in 23 years = 15

15 / 1150 = 0.013 winners per pick.

No matter which way you express it- the story is the same.
Stats say there is nearly 3 times more chance of drafting a brownlow winner with a top 10 pick than with one in pick range 11-58 + fs + zoned.

 

[The Boar]

Darcy Gardiner

27

Darcy Gardiner

Age

30

Ht

192cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.6

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

2.1

4star

G

0.0

1star

D

10.7

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.1

3star

G

0.0

1star

D

10.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.0

1star

copping too much flack here.

Had a down couple of weeks (injured?), and got some heat from the commentary team, so everyone has jumped on the bandwagon and is off him now.

He's a solid lock down player and would be one of the easiest picks for Bris each week. That's why Bris- a prelim team- is trying to keep him.

26yo 192cm lock down BP with 150 games AND comes without trading a pick, cash only. Take your blinkers off, we need more talent like Dizz Gardiner.

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[stavro#4]

We shouldn't need a full tank-mode rebuild though because of our list profile. Our stars are mid 20s, rather than retirement age.

So-
If we can carve out players like Hill, Long and maybe Clark this year- we add 4 Top 30 talented youngsters without a HUGE impact on-field. That keeps us competitive for finals (if our Coaches pull their fingers out).

Just bit by bit for 3 years. Each year target 3-4 Top 30 picks. I think it'll make us more competitive if we draft well, look at the impact of NWM, Owens and Windy.

On Pixel 6a using BigFooty.com mobile app

You would be trading out a best 22 each year to do this and at the same time trading for nobody of note to retain your picks

 

[Veer Right]

I don't know what you are getting at.

Sure, i was a little clumsy calling it 0.8 winners per pick and not 0.8 chance of a winner per pick.

But my point remains whatever you want to call it- not calling it 'chance' is just semantics- doesn't change anything.

0.8 strikerate for top 10 is way higher (almost triple) than the 0.3 rate for picks 11-58 + zone + fs.


If you want to be pedantic:

Top 10 strikerate:

23 years of drafts = 230 top 10 picks total.

Brownlow medal winners from top 10 in 23 years = 8

8 / 230 = 0.035 winners per pick.


Vs

Picks 11-58 + fs + zoned strikerate

23 years of drafts = at least 1,150 picks total in the range picks 11 to 58 + zoned + fs.

Brownlow medal winners from pick range 11-58 + zone + fs in 23 years = 15

15 / 1150 = 0.013 winners per pick.

No matter which way you express it- the story is the same.
Stats say there is nearly 3 times more chance of drafting a brownlow winner with a top 10 pick than with one in pick range 11-58 + fs + zoned.

Love your work.

 

[SaintsofSteel]

Wow we a 'bottom fishing' now mentioning bringing in Josh Walker or Darcy Gardiner

27

Darcy Gardiner

Age

30

Ht

192cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.6

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

2.1

4star

G

0.0

1star

D

10.7

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.1

3star

G

0.0

1star

D

10.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.0

1star

. Surely not?

If the club cant do better than those two, I would rather draft another kid.

 

[The_Steadier]

Love your work.

Thanks mum