Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

[bobs head soup]

I reckon Rye Penny might be a smoky as our MSD selection. Midsize defender who has a big intercept mark game and could be a medium term alternative to the Duryea/Crozier role.

Probably has a better best 22 shot over the next year or 2 than most others available.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

I reckon Rye Penny might be a smoky as our MSD selection. Midsize defender who has a big intercept mark game and could be a medium term alternative to the Duryea/Crozier role.

Probably has a better best 22 shot over the next year or 2 than most others available.

Hope he's no relation to Luke Penny

 

[goodcop badcop]

I reckon Rye Penny might be a smoky as our MSD selection. Midsize defender who has a big intercept mark game and could be a medium term alternative to the Duryea/Crozier role.

Probably has a better best 22 shot over the next year or 2 than most others available.

Only thing I don't like about Penny is his ball use. It's one of the reasons why he wasn't drafted last year and not convinced that's improved enough this year to suggest he's a good fit for us.

 

[dogwatch]

Way too much water to pass under the bridge to be worrying about bids. There are quite a lot of good talls this year.

I don’t think other clubs will risk a “dummy” bid on Croft just to hurt us on points given they will know it’s not a position of need for us and therefore won’t overpay. I’m confident a club will only bid where they’re genuinely happy to end up taking him.

If he’s bid on in a “fair” position we’ll take him because of the discount (~40% when you factor in trading down for points).

As TiAn_ says there's so much water to go under the bridge between now and draft time. Save the stressing until October.

Croft's prospects may go up or down. There will be other bolters and sliders. Our ladder position will fluctuate. So will Brisbane's - we hold their first and second round picks so we need to deathride them.

However ...

If Croft did indeed get a bid at around 11-15 we don't necessarily need to lose either of our two first rounders. This table illustrates it. The "Matching Pick" column shows what pick we'd need to match if we only used one pick. However nobody does that. They typically use 2 or more lower picks so I've put in a few sample combos of 2x and 3x but really there are all sorts of ways to do it. Including using 4 or 5 picks to preserve the top end picks.

At the bottom I've listed our provisional draft picks but these only give a rough idea as it changes week by week and different websites have different versions (possibly because it changes so often they can't keep up).

In the 3x Combos column I've used picks 34 and 63 which are provisionally ours today (according to zerohanger). So the bolded pick is the one Sam Power would have to procure. Should be a doddle whatever the 3rd or 4th round pick he needs to find, especially as we routinely do some sort of player trades in the off season, even if we didn't predict them midyear. Bear in mind each combo example is only one of thousands of possible scenarios.

Yes, if Croft attracted a bid in the top 10 it would be harder. I reckon on the night Power and Milesi (and Grant, Bevo etc) would have a an agreed threshold they wouldn't exceed. For example they might quickly pass on any bid at 1-7 because they have other targets they need more, but will happily stump up the points if the bid is at 8 or greater. Power just has to do all his scenarios, sums and trading meticulously beforehand.

And of course there's always the option of going into deficit for 2024, however undesirable.
IIRC, if you go into deficit it diminishes your future first pick by whatever the points table indicates. You can't opt to take those points from a lower pick (maybe someone can confirm or correct this). Therefore it's better to trade out something very specific like a future third for the points needed this year.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

As TiAn_ says there's so much water to go under the bridge between now and draft time. Save the stressing until October.

Croft's prospects may go up or down. There will be other bolters and sliders. Our ladder position will fluctuate. So will Brisbane's - we hold their first and second round picks so we need to deathride them.

However ...

If Croft did indeed get a bid at around 11-15 we don't necessarily need to lose either of our two first rounders. This table illustrates it. The "Matching Pick" column shows what pick we'd need to match if we only used one pick. However nobody does that. They typically use 2 or more lower picks so I've put in a few sample combos of 2x and 3x but really there are all sorts of ways to do it. Including using 4 or 5 picks to preserve the top end picks.

At the bottom I've listed our provisional draft picks but these only give a rough idea as it changes week by week and different websites have different versions (possibly because it changes so often they can't keep up).

In the 3x Combos column I've used picks 34 and 63 which are provisionally ours today (according to zerohanger). So the bolded pick is the one Sam Power would have to procure. Should be a doddle whatever the 3rd or 4th round pick he needs to find, especially as we routinely do some sort of player trades in the off season, even if we didn't predict them midyear. Bear in mind each combo example is only one of thousands of possible scenarios.

Yes, if Croft attracted a bid in the top 10 it would be harder. I reckon on the night Power and Milesi (and Grant, Bevo etc) would have a an agreed threshold they wouldn't exceed. For example they might quickly pass on any bid at 1-7 because they have other targets they need more, but will happily stump up the points if the bid is at 8 or greater. Power just has to do all his scenarios, sums and trading meticulously beforehand.

And of course there's always the option of going into deficit for 2024, however undesirable. It's much better to trade out something like a future third for the points he needs this year.

View attachment 1700426

Don't know if I'm just misunderstanding your point here, but we can't just choose which picks we use to match. They have to be in order, starting with our very next pick. If the bid comes before any of our 1st rounders, the next pick is used (so if we hold Pick 13 and bid comes at Pick 12, that Pick 13 is used to match the bid)

 

[weltschmerz]

Don't know if I'm just misunderstanding your point here, but we can't just choose which picks we use to match. They have to be in order, starting with our very next pick. If the bid comes before any of our 1st rounders, the next pick is used (so if we hold Pick 13 and bid comes at Pick 12, that Pick 13 is used to match the bid)

Happened with GWS last year when Sydney bid on Rowston.

 

[dogwatch]

Don't know if I'm just misunderstanding your point here, but we can't just choose which picks we use to match. They have to be in order, starting with our very next pick. If the bid comes before any of our 1st rounders, the next pick is used (so if we hold Pick 13 and bid comes at Pick 12, that Pick 13 is used to match the bid)

Yes that's true. My bad. It's one of the factors that would determine where we set our threshold to match. So my example won't hold if the bid is low teens but is probably valid from around 16 or 17 on. As noted there's so much that can change between now and then, including the prospect of him not even attracting a first round bid.

Sam Power has been pretty adept at this in the past with very high end picks. I have a lot of confidence he'll navigate this one OK.

 

[LittleG]

Yes that's true. My bad. It's one of the factors that would determine where we set our threshold to match. So my example won't hold if the bid is low teens but is probably valid from around 16 or 17 on. As noted there's so much that can change between now and then, including the prospect of him not even attracting a first round bid.

Sam Power has been pretty adept at this in the past with very high end picks. I have a lot of confidence he'll navigate this one OK.

Pretty sure we have 3 fourth rounders this year.

Once 2 of the Suns Academy get bid on, our late picks become much more valuable for points.

Hoping Crofty goes well but doesn’t get too 5…. Although I would like him at CHB. He would be great value there.

 

[Mojorisin]

Pretty sure we have 3 fourth rounders this year.

Once 2 of the Suns Academy get bid on, our late picks become much more valuable for points.

Hoping Crofty goes well but doesn’t get too 5…. Although I would like him at CHB. He would be great value there.

Unfortunately looks like Darcy and croft both settle as forwards. Two 200+cm forwards isn't a bad problem to have though

 

[CaptainMurphy]

My (unrealistic) dream would be trading our first rounders for Gold Coast's pick (+/- whatever) and Nick Watson sliding to us due to his size

 

[Charlie Bucket]

As TiAn_ says there's so much water to go under the bridge between now and draft time. Save the stressing until October.

Croft's prospects may go up or down. There will be other bolters and sliders. Our ladder position will fluctuate. So will Brisbane's - we hold their first and second round picks so we need to deathride them.

However ...

If Croft did indeed get a bid at around 11-15 we don't necessarily need to lose either of our two first rounders. This table illustrates it. The "Matching Pick" column shows what pick we'd need to match if we only used one pick. However nobody does that. They typically use 2 or more lower picks so I've put in a few sample combos of 2x and 3x but really there are all sorts of ways to do it. Including using 4 or 5 picks to preserve the top end picks.

At the bottom I've listed our provisional draft picks but these only give a rough idea as it changes week by week and different websites have different versions (possibly because it changes so often they can't keep up).

In the 3x Combos column I've used picks 34 and 63 which are provisionally ours today (according to zerohanger). So the bolded pick is the one Sam Power would have to procure. Should be a doddle whatever the 3rd or 4th round pick he needs to find, especially as we routinely do some sort of player trades in the off season, even if we didn't predict them midyear. Bear in mind each combo example is only one of thousands of possible scenarios.

Yes, if Croft attracted a bid in the top 10 it would be harder. I reckon on the night Power and Milesi (and Grant, Bevo etc) would have a an agreed threshold they wouldn't exceed. For example they might quickly pass on any bid at 1-7 because they have other targets they need more, but will happily stump up the points if the bid is at 8 or greater. Power just has to do all his scenarios, sums and trading meticulously beforehand.

And of course there's always the option of going into deficit for 2024, however undesirable.
IIRC, if you go into deficit it diminishes your future first pick by whatever the points table indicates. You can't opt to take those points from a lower pick (maybe someone can confirm or correct this). Therefore it's better to trade out something very specific like a future third for the points needed this year.

View attachment 1700426

This is great, thanks for sharing DW. Knowing we’ll be unlikely to use one of our first rounders will save a lot of What If discussion between now and draft night.

Personally I don’t see us matching a bid if nominated in the first 10 picks. I even reckon first 15 picks is a stretch.

A KPF would be so far from our radar at the moment. We’ve already used our top picks in 2 of our last 4 years on KPF’s Marra and Darcy (fwd/ruck), I doubt the club would match just because he’s a father son.

Although clubs always talk about best available, I’d be surprised if our recruitment teams current efforts weren’t focused on all other areas besides our tall fwd stocks, suggesting Croft wouldn’t be high on our list. Mids (inside and out), defenders (intercept, possibly another tall), Small/nutural mid sized fwds. These are priorities.

Would be ok if we gave up two later picks in the 30’s or 40’s or whatever needs to happen, but I’d happily pass if it means not having to use our two firsts rounders.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

Let's get cynical for a moment.

Don't bid on Croft, let another club develop him for a couple of years and he can request a trade to the Dogs after that. Simple!



Feel like I'm channelling Carlton of the 1980s with that - excuse me while I take a shower

 

[weltschmerz]

My (unrealistic) dream would be trading our first rounders for Gold Coast's pick (+/- whatever) and Nick Watson sliding to us due to his size

"yeah hi this is the Suns recruiting manager, yeah we considered your offer of 13 and 16 for 7, but you see, Geelong offered pick 30 and we just couldn't refuse"

 

[weltschmerz]

If we did trade up to the Suns' pick, Darcy Wilson is one I have my eye on as a near-complete mid around that range.

 

[dogwatch]

This is great, thanks for sharing DW. Knowing we’ll be unlikely to use one of our first rounders will save a lot of What If discussion between now and draft night.

Personally I don’t see us matching a bid if nominated in the first 10 picks. I even reckon first 15 picks is a stretch.

A KPF would be so far from our radar at the moment. We’ve already used our top picks in 2 of our last 4 years on KPF’s Marra and Darcy (fwd/ruck), I doubt the club would match just because he’s a father son.

Although clubs always talk about best available, I’d be surprised if our recruitment teams current efforts weren’t focused on all other areas besides our tall fwd stocks, suggesting Croft wouldn’t be high on our list. Mids (inside and out), defenders (intercept, possibly another tall), Small/nutural mid sized fwds. These are priorities.

Would be ok if we gave up two later picks in the 30’s or 40’s or whatever needs to happen, but I’d happily pass if it means not having to use our two firsts rounders.

It's very un-Bulldogs to have such an embarrassment of KPFs. Possibly never in my decades of following them. Right now we have Naughton, Jamarra, Bruce, Lobb, Darcy, even Khamis at a pinch. And who knows who else might appear as the next towering FS prospect? The younger Darcy for instance.

However I'm of the view that if you have a top-end KPF talent on offer as a FS you take him 9 times out of 10. Not just because of the 20% points discount but because he might become anything ... and elite KPFs are gold. You then have the option of offloading or re-purposing the worst of the bunch. It would be galling to say "no, we've got Sam Darcy as the heir apparent KPF" and pass on Croft, only to discover that Darcy develops a chronic injury or fails to live up to expectations while in two year's time Croft becomes the next Tom Hawkins or Buddy Franklin at some rival club.

Three years from now Bruce will be retired, Lobb too, or on his farewell lap, Khamis may be at another club, Darcy may be rucking to replace an early-retired or traded English and one of the other KPFs might have an LTI. Things can change unexpectedly. But if all are doing OK we can still get great returns by engineering a trade of the worst (least good) of them. Or turning one of them - Croft for example - into a KPD.

However if we're desperate for a new generation of midfield talent in the 2023 draft and Croft attracts a bid at say pick 7 it's going to be a very tough call.

 

[LittleG]

Not ideal outcome BUT:
We traded up to get an early top line midfielder OR KPD
Took Lual with a second round pick
Matched Crofty

Late high energy small forward & defender.

FA Doedee.

 

[LittleG]

Hawks or GWS in rebuild mode could consider:
Pick 4/5
For
Pick 13 & 18

Two shots are better than 1 in the first round for a rebuilding team.

 

[weltschmerz]

Not ideal outcome BUT:
We traded up to get an early top line midfielder OR KPD
Took Lual with a second round pick
Matched Crofty

Late high energy small forward & defender.

FA Doedee.

I have the feeling Lual won't make it to us. But if we managed to trade up, we could get Darcy Wilson, Croft, trade into the second round for a midfield bull like Frangalas, and FA Doedee, that wouldn't be bad

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

It's very un-Bulldogs to have such an embarrassment of KPFs. Possibly never in my decades of following them. Right now we have Naughton, Jamarra, Bruce, Lobb, Darcy, even Khamis at a pinch. And who knows who else might appear as the next towering FS prospect? The younger Darcy for instance.

However I'm of the view that if you have a top-end KPF talent on offer as a FS you take him 9 times out of 10. Not just because of the 20% points discount but because he might become anything ... and elite KPFs are gold. You then have the option of offloading or re-purposing the worst of the bunch. It would be galling to say "no, we've got Sam Darcy as the heir apparent KPF" and pass on Croft, only to discover that Darcy develops a chronic injury or fails to live up to expectations while in two year's time Croft becomes the next Tom Hawkins or Buddy Franklin at some rival club.

Three years from now Bruce will be retired, Lobb too, or on his farewell lap, Khamis may be at another club, Darcy may be rucking to replace an early-retired or traded English and one of the other KPFs might have an LTI. Things can change unexpectedly. But if all are doing OK we can still get great returns by engineering a trade of the worst (least good) of them. Or turning one of them - Croft for example - into a KPD.

However if we're desperate for a new generation of midfield talent in the 2023 draft and Croft attracts a bid at say pick 7 it's going to be a very tough call.

It must really piss Melbourne off, considering the holes in their forward line.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Hawks or GWS in rebuild mode could consider:
Pick 4/5
For
Pick 13 & 18

Two shots are better than 1 in the first round for a rebuilding team.

Gold Coast need points for their various academy picks so a swap with them seems a no-brainer

 

[weltschmerz]

If trading with the Suns, I'd add a sweetener to have Sam Flanders come as part of the deal.

 

[LittleG]

It must really piss Melbourne off, considering the holes in their forward line.

Melbourne could have taken Lobb but decided to grab Grundy (who isn’t a good forward but far better ruck).

They really should be targeting a few KPF this year. Big big dollars and can pay 3 first round picks IF they need to. They have the picks and the cap space. Nothing is stopping them except themselves.

 

[scooter600x]

View attachment 1700426

If I'm reading this chart correctly, and assuming we have picks 13 & 16, a bid of pick 11 means we keep pick 13 but need to use pick 16 to pay for him.
A bid of pick 12 means we keep both 13 & 16 and use 3 lower picks for the necessary points.
Is that right?

 

[weltschmerz]

If I'm reading this chart correctly, and assuming we have picks 13 & 16, a bid of pick 11 means we keep pick 13 but need to use pick 16 to pay for him.
A bid of pick 12 means we keep both 13 & 16 and use 3 lower picks for the necessary points.
Is that right?

No, you always use your next pick. Any remaining points get turned into an equivalent pick later in the draft.

 

[TiAn_]

It's very un-Bulldogs to have such an embarrassment of KPFs. Possibly never in my decades of following them. Right now we have Naughton, Jamarra, Bruce, Lobb, Darcy, even Khamis at a pinch. And who knows who else might appear as the next towering FS prospect? The younger Darcy for instance.

However I'm of the view that if you have a top-end KPF talent on offer as a FS you take him 9 times out of 10. Not just because of the 20% points discount but because he might become anything ... and elite KPFs are gold. You then have the option of offloading or re-purposing the worst of the bunch. It would be galling to say "no, we've got Sam Darcy as the heir apparent KPF" and pass on Croft, only to discover that Darcy develops a chronic injury or fails to live up to expectations while in two year's time Croft becomes the next Tom Hawkins or Buddy Franklin at some rival club.

Three years from now Bruce will be retired, Lobb too, or on his farewell lap, Khamis may be at another club, Darcy may be rucking to replace an early-retired or traded English and one of the other KPFs might have an LTI. Things can change unexpectedly. But if all are doing OK we can still get great returns by engineering a trade of the worst (least good) of them. Or turning one of them - Croft for example - into a KPD.

However if we're desperate for a new generation of midfield talent in the 2023 draft and Croft attracts a bid at say pick 7 it's going to be a very tough call.

To your point, I remember after the draft in 2017 arguing that Naughton was a good pick and others thought it was a waste because we already had Cordy, Young, Roberts, Adams, Collins, etc as KPDs.

Busslinger is the only young KPD on the list and might be a Bustlinger. If a talented KPP falls into your lap you take them and figure it out later. We just have to do a good job of bluffing that we won’t match if the bid is too high, or trading around a bid once we suspect where it’ll be.