Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

[Golden_6]

His set shot goal kicking has been very good other games (e.g. VM v Young Guns), I wouldn’t draw any conclusions based just on that one outing.

Watched him a few times and his stand out quality is his speed and agility for his size. That’ll make him useful in a number of roles eventually. I’m not sold on his contested marking as a KPF yet.

That SA team is pretty bad. We’ll get a better read on him after the games against Country and Allies. Still think he’s currently only 50-50 to get nominated before our current picks. But could see us trading up just to avoid a team doing to us what Sydney did to GWS last year with Rowston.

I think it's more his ball drop. It looks very ordinary with a high margin of error. In comparison, JUH is a technically a very good kick who right now is missing due to a combination of a lack of confidence and high degree of difficulty with his set shots.

 

[doggies ftw]

His set shot goal kicking has been very good other games (e.g. VM v Young Guns), I wouldn’t draw any conclusions based just on that one outing.

Watched him a few times and his stand out quality is his speed and agility for his size. That’ll make him useful in a number of roles eventually. I’m not sold on his contested marking as a KPF yet.

That SA team is pretty bad. We’ll get a better read on him after the games against Country and Allies. Still think he’s currently only 50-50 to get nominated before our current picks. But could see us trading up just to avoid a team doing to us what Sydney did to GWS last year with Rowston.

It’s more the technique for me which looks shoddy, there’s a few guys getting around with crappy techniques who are fairly accurate but usually they revert to the norm. And guys with good techniques but the yips (ie Marra) revert to being consistent scorers.

I just couldn’t have any confidence in a guy with that technique consistently kicking accurately tbh, his field kicking looks much better.

He does look very very Darcy Moore-ish, maybe without the strong hands but hopefully that’s just due to his slim size and it improves with some added strength

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Not sure if this is the correct thread on your board to post this, let me know if not.

Jordan was super impressive in the first half before fading a bit in the second.

Looks good, but not seeing super impressive - three goals from free kicks, and the marks seemed like double grabs. Plays with good aggression though, and that forward delivery towards the end was excellent. Probably a lot I'm not seeing though.

 

[TiAn_]

I think it's more his ball drop. It looks very ordinary with a high margin of error. In comparison, JUH is a technically a very good kick who right now is missing due to a combination of a lack of confidence and high degree of difficulty with his set shots.

Technique mechanics like grip and ball drop can be trained, if the player is willing. But there are players with good technique that spray them seemingly because of yips, like JUH. Like free throws, it mostly boils down to what is running through the player’s head when they’re lining up. It’s amazing how well some players kick for goal when the team is flying.

 

[scooter600x]

Not sure if this is the correct thread on your board to post this, let me know if not.

Jordan was super impressive in the first half before fading a bit in the second.

Nothing there impresses me at all. Massive Ayce Cordy vibes.

The Allies kid with the ridiculous mullet looks way better and they're talking about him being in the 30-40 range.

 

[King Harold]

Don’t think we need to worry about first round bids.
I would be ropable if we used any 1st round assets on him given our current list.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Don’t think we need to worry about first round bids.
I would be ropable if we used any 1st round assets on him given our current list.

I'm the same, KH. I do get the 'gotta take what's available to you' argument but gee our list build looks pretty precarious if you add another big asset KPF to the mix without improving other aspects. Where does he play, how do we afford him if he comes good, how do we justify the massively increased bust potential of talls, where do we get the short-to-medium term improvement from, who replaces Libba/Treloar etc.

I would only be taking Croft if he (1) is a clear top ten player and thus a "can't miss;" (2) if he is further down the order; or if (3) we think he can 100% excel as a KPD. I couldn't imagine anything worse than taking a 11-15 ranked 18yo key forward with a first rounder atm, father-son nostalgia or not.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Admittedly only a small sample size, but would anyone be keen for us to use a 1st rounder on player with those highlights? Ignoring the fact he’s a F/S.

Personally I believe now more than prior to watching those highlights that our 2 1st rounders are safe. I think the media have whipped up a frenzy around his ability purely because he’s a father son and is a tall much like Darcy was. That’s exaggerated his worth a little.

Seems a good player with lots of aggression. Has good ground game, much like Naughton does, but doesn’t seem to be a strong natural fwd. Maybe suited down back, but nothing is standing out to suggest he’ll go too high in the draft.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

He will definitely be a first rounder tall forwards don’t grow on trees some club would place a bid on him

I think that’s more gun tall forwards not growing on trees.

We don’t see all tall forwards getting taken at the top end of the draft each year. Jacob Koschitzke, Harrison Jones, Mitch Lewis just a few of the examples of tall forwards taken outside Pick 30. Lewis and Koschitzke taken really late in the draft. There’s quiet a few of them over the last 6-8 years. Some even don’t get drafted at all the first time around. Brody Micochek and Brandon Ryan two examples.

 

[TBOW]

There's also the possibility that Croft won't want to wait in line behind Naughton, Marra, Darcy and the rest and chooses not to nominate us.
A lot of water to go under the bridge before now and draft night.

 

[Bulldogs85]

There's also the possibility that Croft won't want to wait in line behind Naughton, Marra, Darcy and the rest and chooses not to nominate us.
A lot of water to go under the bridge before now and draft night.

That’s happened before
Marc Murphy
Nick Blakey
Not using Josh Dunkley because he in fact nominated Sydney
Can’t think of many others

 

[Mofra]

Nothing there impresses me at all. Massive Ayce Cordy vibes.

The Allies kid with the ridiculous mullet looks way better and they're talking about him being in the 30-40 range.

Tholstrup has a glorious mop and looks like he's sliding down into the teens.
Forward/mid from WA.

Like the snippets I've seen from Darcy Wilson too. Good size, inside/out mid

 

[goodcop badcop]

Admittedly only a small sample size, but would anyone be keen for us to use a 1st rounder on player with those highlights? Ignoring the fact he’s a F/S.

Personally I believe now more than prior to watching those highlights that our 2 1st rounders are safe. I think the media have whipped up a frenzy around his ability purely because he’s a father son and is a tall much like Darcy was. That’s exaggerated his worth a little.

Seems a good player with lots of aggression. Has good ground game, much like Naughton does, but doesn’t seem to be a strong natural fwd. Maybe suited down back, but nothing is standing out to suggest he’ll go too high in the draft.

His athleticism is his only elite trait in my opinion. I've said it in previous posts that I don't think he's a 1st rounder and I have seen a lot of him both live and on TV.

What's helping him get noticed more is he is playing for two very good sides that deliver the ball well to him and he is kicking a fair few goals now. Calder are quite dominant (only lost one game) and Metro will probably win the championships. Will be interesting to see him against two of the best key defenders in Curtin and O'Sullivan.

 

[goodcop badcop]

Tholstrup has a glorious mop and looks like he's sliding down into the teens.
Forward/mid from WA.

Like the snippets I've seen from Darcy Wilson too. Good size, inside/out mid

Tholstrup sliding isn't really reflective of his season though. He's been playing WAFL seniors and hasn't been getting much midfield time which we all want to see him do more of. He didn't play for WA on the weekend for some reason. Very talented player.

Wilson plays a lot like Rozee.

 

[doggies ftw]

It’s not the best highlights package but I’m sure he’s being judged on more than this game, if he’s highly rated there’s a reason for it. I dare say the club wouldn’t give a shit about his production at this stage, they’d rightly be very interested in his athletic profile though.

For mine he doesn’t look like a full forward but that’s a good thing, we have Darcy & Marra to play deep in the future. If in 4 years time he can play CHF and actually allow us to play prime Naughty at CHB great, or if he plays CHB himself even better. There’s no way a guy with his attributes wouldn’t be suited or couldn’t learn to play defence, even if he hasn’t so far.

Defence is still a huge need for us so whether he plays there himself or allows Naughty to, he’s still a significant list need IMO.

For reference take a look at Moores draft highlights

Literally the only thing he shows here is athleticism and a couple of decent two grab marks

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

It’s not the best highlights package but I’m sure he’s being judged on more than this game, if he’s highly rated there’s a reason for it.

I think the point being made is that media often overrate the importance of goals when it comes to draftee KPFs. It sounds silly, but key forwards that consistently kick 2ish goals often end up "sliding" relative to the media opinion. Development over the season, athletic profiles, production consistency, quality of opposition, quality of own team etc have more of a bearing on eventual draft position than goals, so I'm certainly not buying yet that Croft has come from the clouds as a top ten contender.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

That’s happened before
Marc Murphy
Nick Blakey
Not using Josh Dunkley because he in fact nominated Sydney
Can’t think of many others

Blakey had a choice between a competitive club in his home state, or move interstate to a basket case, so he had alternatives.
Murphy also made his choice based on staying in his home state.

If Croft had been raised in WA and was now making his choice on whether to nominate, then he might be a risk, but given he’s already in Victoria, failing to nominate us would be unprecedented.

 

[Testekill]

If we end up picking up Croft then I'd push to transition him to a CHB role as I think that may actually be the most suitable position for him. Certainly wouldn't go a first round pick for him unless it came after the Brisbane pick.

 

[doggies ftw]

I think the point being made is that media often overrate the importance of goals when it comes to draftee KPFs. It sounds silly, but key forwards that consistently kick 2ish goals often end up "sliding" relative to the media opinion. Development over the season, athletic profiles, production consistency, quality of opposition, quality of own team etc have more of a bearing on eventual draft position than goals, so I'm certainly not buying yet that Croft has come from the clouds as a top ten contender.

Of course but it’s not just media that’s rating him as rising up the draft boards, it’s pretty much every draft watcher amateur or professional.

I’d put more weight in that personally than this thread “meh that 2 minute video of one game doesn’t really do it for me I wouldn’t dare spend a first round pick on him”

 

[TiAn_]

Of course but it’s not just media that’s rating him as rising up the draft boards, it’s pretty much every draft watcher amateur or professional.

I’d put more weight in that personally than this thread “meh that 2 minute video of one game doesn’t really do it for me I wouldn’t dare spend a first round pick on him”

One of a number of things that you obviously can’t see from watching a single 2 minute video (lel) is rate of improvement. I watched some of his games last year and he’s significantly better than 9-12 months ago. Last year he’d take the odd mark on the lead but was otherwise invisible. With a still raw tall like Croft there’s a considerable amount of projection involved.

I also get the impression a lot of people tend to have this warped idea of what a key position “first round pick” looks like. That if they aren’t Logan McDonald kicking bags in the WAFL then they aren’t a first round pick. In the real world talls with seemingly underwhelming production like Todd Marshall or Harry McKay were first round picks. Again, you’re projecting and drafting for what they look like in 5 years, not next year.

However a lot can turn on what teams are looking for and how many of that type of player are in the draft. I’m not convinced yet he’ll go in the top 20, but really wouldn’t be surprised either, if he maintains or steps up his production over the Champs and the rest of the Coates League season. He’s arguably the third most productive key forward in that comp behind Walter and Morris currently.

His pre-season athletic testing results aren’t public yet (as far as I’m aware) but recruiters will have those as context too.

 

[doggies ftw]

One of a number of things that you obviously can’t see from watching a single 2 minute video (lel) is rate of improvement. I watched some of his games last year and he’s significantly better than 9-12 months ago. Last year he’d take the odd mark on the lead but was otherwise invisible. With a still raw tall like Croft there’s a considerable amount of projection involved.

I also get the impression a lot of people tend to have this warped idea of what a key position “first round pick” looks like. That if they aren’t Logan McDonald kicking bags in the WAFL then they aren’t a first round pick. In the real world talls with seemingly underwhelming production like Todd Marshall or Harry McKay were first round picks. Again, you’re projecting and drafting for what they look like in 5 years, not next year.

However a lot can turn on what teams are looking for and how many of that type of player are in the draft. I’m not convinced yet he’ll go in the top 20, but really wouldn’t be surprised either, if he maintains or steps up his production over the Champs and the rest of the Coates League season. He’s arguably the third most productive key forward in that comp behind Walter and Morris currently.

His pre-season athletic testing results aren’t public yet (as far as I’m aware) but recruiters will have those as context too.

Yeah honestly I don’t even have an opinion on his ranking as I haven’t seen near enough of him, just more pointing out if he’s rising up draft boards there will be more of a reason to it than just he’s kicking a few goals. The u18 media coverage is actually surprisingly good to be honest, they get it right more often than not when it comes to the bolters IMO.

The key thing for the rating of Croft will 100% be down to his attributes rather than production and they’re exciting attributes. 200cm blokes with elite athleticism and a bit of an aggressive streak don’t grow on trees. The club will have a better idea on things like how they except his frame to develop, which will be important. Matty Croft retired when I was pretty young so I don’t have a great recollection of him as a footballer but he was a pretty solid unit wasn’t he?

If his rate of improvement continues at this level, we believe he will fill out well & he tests very well athletically as expected - the club will rightfully be all over him I’d imagine. Throw in (from what I’ve seen anyway) his aggression/intent at the contest, and even if he’s not necessarily an elite mark or kick, that package almost ensures at the least a solid KPP at either end. We’re going well for talls but not so well we can turn them away.

The draft cost is irrelevant for mine, it only costs us if the club is incompetent and doesn’t manoeuvre around a bid, in this system there’s plentyyyy of opportunity to make it a winning situation without compromising the rest of our hand (well unless he does a Darcy and flies into a genuine top 3 prospect but that’s very very unlikely)

 

[_Cerberus_]

People want Croft moved back because his kicking for goal is iffy based on one video clip. Do you expect his kicking to be any better in the back line? I'd rather one point than another turn over and -6 points. We have to many poor kicks in the back line as it is and are one of the worst teams in the league in recent seasons for goals conceded from turnovers.

Draft / Under 18 watchers. What is Crofts field kicking like? And general decision making? And general body strength when in a one on one wrestle for incoming ball for a contested mark? Those three are important if he is going to be thrown into defence, than just simply being mobile and quick. We want footballers who are athletes, not just pure athletes.

I agree with some here that goals kicked, doesn't mean that much on their own. To many "draft experts", just see the word forward and goals together, and that is all they need to pump someone up on their draft boards. Other key questions would be. Is he getting the best defender, or is he getting 2nd/3rd best? Most quality talls get thrown up forward when young simply because they are tall, thus there isn't as many quality tall defenders that forwards face when coming up through the system. Many just bully other players with their size, and then struggle to translate at AFL level. Is he actually matched up on good defenders? Can he find his own ball? Play higher up the ground? It there more to him than just being quick on the lead? etc. Recruiters will be looking at everything.

Remember Fosters kid kicked a heap of goals in the then TAC Cup and was talked up by some because of the goals and family name. Ended up falling on draft night, ended up at the Blues, and then out of the league a couple of years later.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Jordan hasn't played for weeks. That's his twin, the volleyballer, flown in from AIS. Club planning to mix them up, talk up Mitchell, wait for a bid on him, pass, Mitchell then says he's going back to volleyball, and we draft Jordan with pick 105.
Jordan starts next year at CHB, and he, Barrass and Liam Jones

19

Liam Jones

Age

35

Ht

199cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

134.5

2star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.1

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

116.3

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

all make AA 2024, Baz works on his kicking over summer, and wins the Norm. Bont holds the cup aloft, Bevo gives his 2024 McHale medal to Gardner, after dropping him for another GF, and promptly hands over the reins to Spangher, having been offered the job of governor at the RBA.
Mitchell Croft marries Lara Dunkley, Bont has 5 sons and 5 daughters who all go on to become Bulldog hall of famers, and Sam Darcy and his brothers produce sons who are the first set of 250cm+ cousins to all play in the same team.
Tom Liberatore passes Brent Harvey

Brent Harvey

Age

48

Ht

167cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

8.2

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.2

2star

T

0.6

3star

G

0.6

3star

's games record, just taking it "a one year contract at a time", and becomes the first AFL player to take the field in the same team as his own son.
James O'Donnell and Liber 3rd gen become the first Bulldogs to play in a flag and also a Boxing Day test together.

ChatGPT eh, how good is it?!

 

[Nat Fyfe]

The great thing about Croft is he won’t be lanky forever. His dad ended up built like a brick shithouse, especially when you compare him to someone like Bob Murphy who remained skinny well into his 30s. Croft will fill out, and the recruiters know that. Seeing what he’s able to do, and the aggression he shows, with a light frame makes him even more exciting

 

[doggies ftw]

People want Croft moved back because his kicking for goal is iffy based on one video clip. Do you expect his kicking to be any better in the back line? I'd rather one point than another turn over and -6 points. We have to many poor kicks in the back line as it is and are one of the worst teams in the league in recent seasons for goals conceded from turnovers.

Draft / Under 18 watchers. What is Crofts field kicking like? And general decision making? And general body strength when in a one on one wrestle for a mark at an incoming ball for a contested mark? Those three are important if he is going to be thrown into defence, than just simply being mobile and quick. We want footballers who are athletes, not just pure athletes.

I agree with some here that goals kicked, doesn't mean that much on their own. To many "draft experts", just see the word forward and goals together, and that is all they need to pump someone up on their draft boards. Other key questions would be. Is he getting the best defender, or is he getting 2nd/3rd best? Most quality talls get thrown up forward when young simply because they are tall, thus there isn't as many quality tall defenders that forwards face when coming up through the system. Many just bully other players with their size, and then struggle to translate at AFL level. Is he actually matched up on good defenders?

Remember Fosters kid kicked a heap of goals in the then TAC Cup and was talked up. Ended up falling on draft night, ended up at the Blues, and then out of the league a couple of years later. More to it than just kicking goals.

I’m no expert by any stretch but from what I’ve read I think his field kicking is much much better than his set shot, happy (unhappy?) to be corrected if I’m wrong here though.

He’s definitely not beating up on kids due to size though, kid is an absolute twig. I’d be more concerned if he was noticeably stronger than his peers, that’s the real concern with junior talls. They get to AFL and everyone’s just as strong and they lose that point of difference, heights different though - 200cm is still 200cm at AFL level.

Foster from memory was slooow & built. That’ll never translate to AFL, gut feel is Crofty is a fair bit different.

So long as they’re not downright deplorable not being a great kick doesn’t worry me for a tall defender. Remember they’re replacing Bruce/Gardner not slotting in beside them, and Buss is very good who should be one of the others down there. Honestly it’s our system more than anything letting us down, every team has defenders who can’t kick for shit but they compensate for that and protect them from the risky kicking duties. We seem hell bent on isolating Gards & Bruce back there, backing them in to be key parts of our ball movement and then wondering why they turn it over.

And they’re two of the worst kicks in the comp so it’s even worse that we don’t protect them with Dale, Red etc taking all that responsibility. Jones for example is not great but about the level you expect/need from a defender, anything else is a bonus for mine.

I am very tempted by Darcy down there though because his kicking is such a feature and he’s a huge kick too which could help us clear zones.