Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

[Charlie Bucket]

Another BOG game from Croft for local senior team today. For those interested.

 

[Wizard17]

Another BOG game from Croft for local senior team today. For those interested.

Needs to go and hide behind a post or something

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Needs to go and hide behind a post or something

Probably could with his build.

 

[doggie dog]

Too good to pass up. Will help relief ruck with Darcy long term as well from the sounds of things.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

100% agree, talent alone is too good to pass up. Plus you know he's going to be a brillent club man just like his dad.
Matty bled red white and blue, and was always spoken very highly as a team mate.

 

[doggie dog]

View attachment 1712046

Have to say, Croft has a glorious mop on him.

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

He better enjoy it while he can his dad lost all his hair

 

[doggie dog]

I'm the same, KH. I do get the 'gotta take what's available to you' argument but gee our list build looks pretty precarious if you add another big asset KPF to the mix without improving other aspects. Where does he play, how do we afford him if he comes good, how do we justify the massively increased bust potential of talls, where do we get the short-to-medium term improvement from, who replaces Libba/Treloar etc.

I would only be taking Croft if he (1) is a clear top ten player and thus a "can't miss;" (2) if he is further down the order; or if (3) we think he can 100% excel as a KPD. I couldn't imagine anything worse than taking a 11-15 ranked 18yo key forward with a first rounder atm, father-son nostalgia or not.

I would have no problems selecting young Croft.....L Jones is going great guns but he is over 30, and Bruce and Keathy are both over 30 and dropping off hard.
Darcy, JOD and Buss not physically ready yet.

 

[Woof]

Spoke to a recruiter during the week who said Croft has entered his top ten based on last week. We’re going to have to get creative with those firsts.

 

[dergert]

How's lual going?

 

[goodcop badcop]

How's lual going?

Was the worst game I've seen him play to be honest. Didn't get a lot of it and when he did, he made poor decisions and executed poorly. Still tried hard even though things weren't working out for him or his team, laid a number of strong tackles.

He wasn't alone though, I thought it was a pretty disappointing display from country. Even Harley Reid wasn't that good apart from his 1st qtr burst. They pretty much played into SA's hands with long bombs into their forward line which Patton and McCabe mopped up a lot of it.

I quite liked George Stevens' game in the midfield for country though. Big unit and set a number of good plays by both hand and foot. He could be one that could push into the first round amongst our picks if he keeps that form up.
Harry De Mattia was also pretty impressive, won a lot of clearances and has a great speed. Lacked some polish by foot though.
Darcy Wilson was also impressive in stages, kicked a couple of goals but his kicking was a bit average.
Was one of McAuliffe's better games that I've seen also, physical and was pretty polished by foot. Almost kicked a goal from outside 50.

Was a better display from the midfield prospects in this game.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Scott Welsh

Scott Welsh

Age

47

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.9

3star

HB

2.7

2star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.4

3star

G

1.8

5star

No current season stats available

D

2.6

1star

K

2.2

1star

HB

0.4

1star

M

1.2

2star

T

0.2

3star

G

0.2

3star

's son kicking 5 for SA against Vic Country - 191cm and still only 16yo.

Scott only got to 100 games with Crows, a handful for North and couple of seasons with us.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

Scott Welsh's son kicking 5 for SA against Vic Country - 191cm and still only 16yo.

Scott only got to 100 games with Crows, a handful for North and couple of seasons with us.

Imagine there was no minimum games requirement. Could’ve had 4 elite KPF prospects tied to us in the space of 5 years. We’ll have to settle for waiting for Cooney’s kid instead

 

[BLACAE]

The Western Bulldogs may need to match a first-round draft bid on a father-son or academy prospect for the third time in four years this November.

Calder Cannons prospect Jordan Croft, the son of ex-Bulldog Matthew, who played 186 games for the club between 1991 and 2004, has surged into top-15 calculations with a strong start to the season.

Matthew Croft, left, pictured playing for the Bulldogs, and draft prospect Jordan, right. Credit: Getty Images

The 200-centimetre forward kicked four goals for Victoria Metro in their trial game against the Young Guns ahead of the mid-season draft – which he was not eligible for – and added 3.2 in Metro’s 68-point drubbing of South Australia on Sunday.

The Dogs matched a bid on father-son swingman Sam Darcy (son of Luke) at No.2 in the 2021 draft, after doing the same with Next Generation Academy graduate Jamarra Ugle-Hagan with the top selection the previous year.

Several recruiters who spoke to Money Talks on the condition of anonymity believe Croft is a genuine first-round contender, with Metro coach Rob Harding also raving about his work-rate for his size.

It presents an interesting dilemma for the Bulldogs, given they are blessed for young talls at both ends, including Darcy, Ugle-Hagan, Aaron Naughton

33

Aaron Naughton

Age

26

Ht

196cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

0.8

1star

G

0.5

4star

D

12.8

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.0

1star

, Jedd Busslinger and new category B signing James O’Donnell.

That doesn’t even include ruck star Tim English, another one of their excellent draft decisions in recent years.

They already have two first-round picks this year after scoring Brisbane’s in the Josh Dunkley

5

Josh Dunkley

Age

29

Ht

191cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

13.7

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.4

4star

trade, and would hope any bid on Croft comes after those. Otherwise, the Dogs’ recruiting team will have to weigh up whether Croft is right for them.


“He gets up and back, works really hard, and is a real challenge to defend. He wears his defender down through that work-rate and gets to good spots to generate opportunities to score,” Harding told Money Talks.
“He marks well on the lead, and is an on-the-move sort of player, but as he matures and fills out more, he will keep adding to his contest side. He will get an opportunity in the [under-18] champs to do some relief rucking as well.”

If he is that sort of player, he sounds like J Cameron who does that regularly. Long way to go but you're crazy if you say no to that player given the age of some of our talls in Jones, Lobb, Bruce, Keath etc.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[dergert]

Anyone know where I can find the stats for today's champs game?

 

[Nat Fyfe]

Picture of Lual from today's game. Looks like he's put on a fair bit of size since I last watched him play (previously looked really small and skinny)

 

[hatescaptcha]

Picture of Lual from today's game. Looks like he's put on a fair bit of size since I last watched him play (previously looked really small and skinny)

He needs to be hidden..
perfect player to add to our current list.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[DoggiesC1954]

Quick question for people who know more then me. If we end up with pick 12 and 15 (Dunkley trade) but a bid comes at 10 for Croft do we lose both picks.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Quick question for people who know more then me. If we end up with pick 12 and 15 (Dunkley trade) but a bid comes at 10 for Croft do we lose both picks.

No - we would lose pick 12 (and get pick 60 back).

 

[weltschmerz]

Quick question for people who know more then me. If we end up with pick 12 and 15 (Dunkley trade) but a bid comes at 10 for Croft do we lose both picks.

This is how many points each pick is worth.

We get a 20% discount on points when matching a bid. So if a bid on Croft comes at pick 10, worth 1395 points, we have to use a draft pick/s equivalent to 80% of that many points. So we'd need 1111 points, which would use our pick 12 with a few point left over,a nd 15 would be untouched.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

No - we would lose pick 12 (and get pick 60 back).

Just as an aside - this, to me, is a pretty bad outcome, in line with my previous posts about why I would hesitate to take Croft. The "discount" of two picks is minimal and we lose the chance to draft a similarly-rated player in a role that (1) we lack; (2) will likely make a more immediate impact. Taking the F/S out of it, if we were to use pick 12 this year on a key forward, the place would flip its shit because it throws our list dynamics even further out of whack at the cost of a really good mid (for example) prospect.

Lot of water to go under the bridge, but unless he moves down back and shows something or shoots up the draft board even further (thus making him more of a bargain), I don't think I'd take him.

 

[doggies ftw]

Just as an aside - this, to me, is a pretty bad outcome, in line with my previous posts about why I would hesitate to take Croft. The "discount" of two picks is minimal and we lose the chance to draft a similarly-rated player in a role that (1) we lack; (2) will likely make a more immediate impact. Taking the F/S out of it, if we were to use pick 12 this year on a key forward, the place would flip its s**t because it throws our list dynamics even further out of whack at the cost of a really good mid (for example) prospect.

Lot of water to go under the bridge, but unless he moves down back and shows something or shoots up the draft board even further (thus making him more of a bargain), I don't think I'd take him.

Yeah but this would literally not happen and if it did Power should be sacked. The reason F/S & academy picks are such a bargain is because lower picks are over valued compared to high picks, not the 20% discount

No club in their right mind would match pick 10 with pick 12, but they’d happily match with a variety of later picks. There’s a million different ways to arrange this - ie move up the order, trade out of the draft and then back in once Croft is matched, trade into next year and stack that draft instead - that’s what SP gets paid to do and we know he’s good at it.

So this is kind of a moot argument in reality

 

[TiAn_]

Just as an aside - this, to me, is a pretty bad outcome, in line with my previous posts about why I would hesitate to take Croft. The "discount" of two picks is minimal and we lose the chance to draft a similarly-rated player in a role that (1) we lack; (2) will likely make a more immediate impact. Taking the F/S out of it, if we were to use pick 12 this year on a key forward, the place would flip its s**t because it throws our list dynamics even further out of whack at the cost of a really good mid (for example) prospect.

Lot of water to go under the bridge, but unless he moves down back and shows something or shoots up the draft board even further (thus making him more of a bargain), I don't think I'd take him.

If he’s rated a top 10 KPP then I’d be amazed if we let him through to the keeper. I know everyone’s knickers are in a knot about midfielders, but there’s a whole thread dedicated to which end to play Aaron Naughton because he’s our sole elite KPP. We need both.

 

[doggiesin08]

Yeah but this would literally not happen and if it did Power should be sacked. The reason F/S & academy picks are such a bargain is because lower picks are over valued compared to high picks, not the 20% discount

No club in their right mind would match pick 10 with pick 12, but they’d happily match with a variety of later picks. There’s a million different ways to arrange this - ie move up the order, trade out of the draft and then back in once Croft is matched, trade into next year and stack that draft instead - that’s what SP gets paid to do and we know he’s good at it.

So this is kind of a moot argument in reality

Completely agree. The system is a joke and either the discount needs to go or the draft points index re-calculated.

The index was set in 2014 and hasn’t been updated since. It was derived using player salary data from 2000-2014 so mostly captured drafts from mid 1990s to late 2000s. This was an era where U18s games were not filmed, some clubs including ours didn’t even have full time recruiting staff, etc. and so you would regularly see 1st round “busts” and future superstars slip to late picks and the rookie draft.

Recruiting has become much more professional since the mid 1990s to late 2000s and so these things happen far less often, however the points are calculated as if they still do … thus undervaluing early picks and overvaluing later ones.

Someone on the draft board has run an updated index using data from draft pick only trades (no players involved) and it was quite a different slope as you’d imagine.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Yeah but this would literally not happen and if it did Power should be sacked. The reason F/S & academy picks are such a bargain is because lower picks are over valued compared to high picks, not the 20% discount

No club in their right mind would match pick 10 with pick 12, but they’d happily match with a variety of later picks. There’s a million different ways to arrange this - ie move up the order, trade out of the draft and then back in once Croft is matched, trade into next year and stack that draft instead - that’s what SP gets paid to do and we know he’s good at it.

So this is kind of a moot argument in reality

The trade out & back in loophole was closed several years ago, right? I can't remember exactly the details but I don't think it's as simple as trading 12 & 15 out and then bringing decent picks back in - correct me if wrong. Trading out of the draft as an alternative seems like an awful price to pay (again) for a player with no clear path into the side given so many very talented KPFs. Moving up the order could be a better option, I agree - my point is that we need to think more carefully about whether drafting him is the right option for our list. Darcy or Marra he ain't.

If he’s rated a top 10 KPP then I’d be amazed if we let him through to the keeper. I know everyone’s knickers are in a knot about midfielders, but there’s a whole thread dedicated to which end to play Aaron Naughton because he’s our sole elite KPP. We need both.

This argument only works if we assume Croft can play key back. He hasn't played there at all, and from what I've seen, most of the comments speculating that he could play down there are focused on his athletic abilities. It takes far more to be a competent defender than just being athletic with a neat kick.

A high-mid first rounder is a huge price to pay to hope that the player can play a different position. If Beveridge did that when it suited others' arguments less he'd be hanged, drawn and quartered. Imagine the outrage if he played Buss as a forward next week?

We would need to see some tangible evidence that he is competent in that position to pay such high a price imo.

 

[Mojorisin]

The trade out & back in loophole was closed several years ago, right? I can't remember exactly the details but I don't think it's as simple as trading 12 & 15 out and then bringing decent picks back in - correct me if wrong. Trading out of the draft as an alternative seems like an awful price to pay (again) for a player with no clear path into the side given so many very talented KPFs. Moving up the order could be a better option, I agree - my point is that we need to think more carefully about whether drafting him is the right option for our list. Darcy or Marra he ain't.



This argument only works if we assume Croft can play key back. He hasn't played there at all, and from what I've seen, most of the comments speculating that he could play down there are focused on his athletic abilities. It takes far more to be a competent defender than just being athletic with a neat kick.

A high-mid first rounder is a huge price to pay to hope that the player can play a different position. If Beveridge did that when it suited others' arguments less he'd be hanged, drawn and quartered. Imagine the outrage if he played Buss as a forward next week?

We would need to see some tangible evidence that he is competent in that position to pay such high a price imo.

They've only stopped you trading for the same pick. Hypothetically we could trade pick 12 and 15 to cats for a future first then after the Croft bid trade the future first for Eagles pick 19

 

[doggies ftw]

The trade out & back in loophole was closed several years ago, right? I can't remember exactly the details but I don't think it's as simple as trading 12 & 15 out and then bringing decent picks back in - correct me if wrong. Trading out of the draft as an alternative seems like an awful price to pay (again) for a player with no clear path into the side given so many very talented KPFs. Moving up the order could be a better option, I agree - my point is that we need to think more carefully about whether drafting him is the right option for our list. Darcy or Marra he ain't.



This argument only works if we assume Croft can play key back. He hasn't played there at all, and from what I've seen, most of the comments speculating that he could play down there are focused on his athletic abilities. It takes far more to be a competent defender than just being athletic with a neat kick.

A high-mid first rounder is a huge price to pay to hope that the player can play a different position. If Beveridge did that when it suited others' arguments less he'd be hanged, drawn and quartered. Imagine the outrage if he played Buss as a forward next week?

We would need to see some tangible evidence that he is competent in that position to pay such high a price imo.

You can’t trade with the same team twice, no reason you can’t trade back in with other clubs as far as I’m aware.

I don’t really see an issue with pushing the picks back to next year, yeah it sucks for fans as we want everything now but is drafting mids in 2023 or 2024 really gonna make a difference in the overall scheme of things. It’s not trading out of the draft again, because last two times we didn’t get any picks back - in this situation it’s literally just pushing two picks to next year and potentially taking 3 first rounders.

It’s quite clear we’re building for the next charge at the top and that’s when Darcy, Marra etc hit their prime in 3+ years. Small price to pay when the benefit is another top 10 rated KPP

Point being there is a huge amount of options for us, the least desirable is throwing away a ‘potential’ gun KPP for the sake of it. are we really that flush for KPP? As Tian said half of us are desperately trying to move Naughty back, this just opens this door even more - you really can never have enough gun KPP. Big, athletic versatile KPP even better

He may not be Darcy or Marra but he has a pretty bloody desirable set of attributes, if he does in fact race up the draft boards there’s a reason for it. What’s there really to say he’s no Darcy? He was rated similarly at this stage in his draft season