AFL 2023 - AFL Round 9

[Fizza]

Dusty not very chirpy nesting with Finch's ex bird

 

[X_box_X]

Makes sense as to why Geelong have gone from -19.5 to -23.5 today w TAB.

 

[Footy Form Guide Podcast]

My best this week is GC -21.5 vs the WCE. GC have found some decent form of late and WCE are really battling. Hard to see WCE getting within 4 goals of any side at the moment. Post all of our bets on twitter @FootyFGPod

 

[Footy Form Guide Podcast]

Bailey Smith 30+ @ $4 pb - Looks to be over his Calf issue... Had 22 disposals in the second half last week which corresponded to Treloar going off the ground injured so more responsibility for him in the Dogs midfield.

Nice find ...

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Alright Boyos, it is that time of the week where we unload the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
This segment is up 9.7 Units on the year and has been reliably putting food on the tables of Degens week after week.

There were better odds on this bet on Sunday night but the coward books simply were not allowing Lock levels of investment at that time and I will always endeavour to make the Lock something that all Degens can get proper money on.
Regardless, the odds we are being offered currently are still far and away the best H2H odds I have ever witnessed.
Geelong is seriously undermanned this week(9 of best 22) and coming up against a Richmond side that’s demise has been greatly exaggerated and has been building and gelling with the influx of GWS engine room players.
Geelong only won this fixture by 3 points last year against an undermanned Richmond side and will field a much weaker side this time including a very shallow midfield(no Danger,Selwood,Guthrie,Menegola,St-anley).

Richmonds performances also seem to be heavily influenced by motivation, of which they will have plenty going into this match. An example of Richmond not giving a * would be their Marvel stadium(negative mindset every time) performance against the Suns. That won’t be the case this week.

There is simply no way that this underrated Richmond side will lose to this undermanned Geelong side. I don’t want to be sensationalist here but I would literally bet my foreskin on it.
(Books probably wouldn’t except this though)

Anyway,
RICHMOND @$3.50 IS THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
10 units

Edit: having mobilised the small army of Irish Catholic burner accounts at my disposal, the LOCK OF THE WEEK has now been increased to 20 units@$3.50

Gentleman, I now inform you that having mobilised the small army of Irish Catholic burner accounts at my disposal, I have been able to increase my investment in the LOCK OF THE WEEK to 20 units.

 

[Suncraze]

2u Lions -25.5 $1.90

2u GCS -19.5 Lads

 

[Suncraze]

2u GCS -19.5 Lads

2u Cats 16+ $1.72 PlayUp

 

[Mags98]

scrimshaw had 100% of his touches in the fwd half in the last quarter against freo (admittedly only 1 touch), 3.50 ags at lads

 

[sohohoho]

Makes sense as to why Geelong have gone from -19.5 to -23.5 today w TAB.

Made no sense.
Strange stuff that was

 

[gillon]

Logan McDonald 2-5 on 365

1.83, 3.90, 10 and 28.

Free are bad against tall forwards and Buddy’s odds are s**t. Nuff said

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Alright Boyos, it is that time of the week where we unload the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
This segment is up 9.7 Units on the year and has been reliably putting food on the tables of Degens week after week.

There were better odds on this bet on Sunday night but the coward books simply were not allowing Lock levels of investment at that time and I will always endeavour to make the Lock something that all Degens can get proper money on.
Regardless, the odds we are being offered currently are still far and away the best H2H odds I have ever witnessed.
Geelong is seriously undermanned this week(9 of best 22) and coming up against a Richmond side that’s demise has been greatly exaggerated and has been building and gelling with the influx of GWS engine room players.
Geelong only won this fixture by 3 points last year against an undermanned Richmond side and will field a much weaker side this time including a very shallow midfield(no Danger,Selwood,Guthrie,Menegola,St-anley).

Richmonds performances also seem to be heavily influenced by motivation, of which they will have plenty going into this match. An example of Richmond not giving a * would be their Marvel stadium(negative mindset every time) performance against the Suns. That won’t be the case this week.

There is simply no way that this underrated Richmond side will lose to this undermanned Geelong side. I don’t want to be sensationalist here but I would literally bet my foreskin on it.
(Books probably wouldn’t except this though)

Anyway,
RICHMOND @$3.50 IS THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
10 units

Edit: having mobilised the small army of Irish Catholic burner accounts at my disposal, the LOCK OF THE WEEK has now been increased to 20 units@$3.50

I love your work Louis, thanks for the entertainment.

One thing though:

'This segment is up 9.7 Units on the year'

Is this really true?

No offense bro but I can't tell if this is part of your schtick or if you are making a serious claim.

My main memory of you this year is betting on Richmond to cover the line a few weeks ago and they got spanked.

Not dissing you either, I'm down for season '23, been barely punting for the past few weeks as a result.

 

[TryAnHit]

Goal scorers have really dried up. Don't go chasing and giving back profits to the books.

Same thing happens every year.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

I love your work Louis, thanks for the entertainment.

One thing though:

'This segment is up 9.7 Units on the year'

Is this really true?

No offense bro but I can't tell if this is part of your schtick or if you are making a serious claim.

My main memory of you this year is betting on Richmond to cover the line a few weeks ago and they got spanked.

Not dissing you either, I'm down for season '23, been barely punting for the past few weeks as a result.

Brother, the Lock of the week is up 9.7 units on the year and that is a fact that can be verified by reading through the various threads this year. If that is a lie then let our glorious moderator(Balmain) strike me down forever.
It’s gone 2/4 but the 2 times it’s got up I placed and recommended considerably higher unit stakes.
Some would say It has been a masterclass in bankroll management.

I have noticed a distinct lack of train posting from you recently. Hope that changes soon as you are one of if not the biggest drivers of the spirit of this board. Big things coming for you this year I can feel it.
After all, Nothing simultaneously strikes fear into the hearts of the books and warms those of Degens as when the great Mouncey puts a head on a train.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Brother, the Lock of the week is up 9.7 units on the year and that is a fact that can be verified by reading through the various threads this year. If that is a lie then let our glorious moderator(Balmain) strike me down forever.
It’s gone 2/4 but the 2 times it’s got up I placed and recommended considerably higher unit stakes.
Some would say It has been a masterclass in bankroll management.

I have noticed a distinct lack of train posting from you recently. Hope that changes soon as you are one of if not the biggest drivers of the spirit of this board. Big things coming for you this year I can feel it.
After all, Nothing simultaneously strikes fear into the hearts of the books and warms those of Degens as when the great Mouncey puts a head on a train.

In that case then well done.

As for me, this year has been a poor showing.

A couple of heart-breaking 'one more goal for big pay days' and more than a few 'nowhere near it' trainwrecks.

I'm down for '23 and rather than try to chase my losses, I'd rather wait until next season to get back into it.

The only reason why I ended up in '21 and '22 was because of big wins in the early rounds, I went negative both years after about rd 5.

It was okay both years because I was playing with house money. This year I would be playing with rent money

Will still occasionally search for value if I can be bothered, maybe something will pop up, but I don't think this is my year.

Maybe I'll chuck 1u on the Tigers by 40+ and turn my season around...

 

[HTPunter]

Goal scorers have really dried up. Don't go chasing and giving back profits to the books.

Same thing happens every year.

The booming odds are missing as bookies slash value off anyone who even gave a forward teammate a slap on the back pre-game. But there is still some great odds for genuine goalscorers in the right match ups. It’s mostly about accepting That odds like $67 for Langford and $50 for Bailey and $400 for Rayner aren’t common occurrences - of course you’re not gonna win those weekly.

Hawkins, Allen, King, Fritsch etc are all the types to win more constantly

We’ve still got Max King to come back and Lewis to work into form.

 

[sohohoho]

Hawkins, Allen, King, Fritsch etc are all the types to win more constantly

We’ve still got Max King to come back and Lewis to work into form.

You are paying a premium for all these names, there will be role change value to be had always but scoring in general about to dry up with colder months and books overall pricing is better then early rounds.

tryanhit is right

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Maybe I'll chuck 1u on the Tigers by 40+ and turn my season around...

Look, I’m not telling you what to do, but seriously consider loading Richmond H2H for at least 10 units as well. This is not a Richmond nuffy thing, I am a pure degenerate gambler. I really believe Richmond should be about $1.10 and yet we can get them for $3.60. With it being Thursday now, I’m up to 50 units H2H on Tigs. If I am wrong I will look like an idiot in the eyes of the friends and family I’ve harangued to get these bets on. Not for the first time, but the worst time.

Won’t come to that though because Richmond are the lockiest lock that ever locked.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

View attachment 1684053

Look, I’m not telling you what to do, but seriously consider loading Richmond H2H for at least 10 units as well. This is not a Richmond nuffy thing, I am a pure degenerate gambler. I really believe Richmond should be about $1.10 and yet we can get them for $3.60. With it being Thursday now, I’m up to 50 units H2H on Tigs. If I am wrong I will look like an idiot in the eyes of the friends and family I’ve harangued to get these bets on. Not for the first time, but the worst time.

Won’t come to that though because Richmond are the lockiest lock that ever locked.

Is this oraz using a chatGPT bot to sound more intelligent and articulate?

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Is this oraz using a chatGPT bot to sound more intelligent and articulate?

He’ll cash out and load up on Geelong at halftime.

 

[pendlebury_10]

This is not a Richmond nuffy thing, I am a pure degenerate gambler. I really believe Richmond should be about $1.10 and yet we can get them for $3.60.

I'm not sure I've ever heard a more Tigers nuff statement in my life.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Is this oraz using a chatGPT bot to sound more intelligent and articulate?

Are these the writings of a machine man with a machine heart?

I'm not sure I've ever heard a more Tigers nuff statement in my life.

Rational reasoning: the only thing this DECIMATED Geelong side has going for it this week is Hawkins and Cameron. Balta(Hawkins) and Grimes(Cameron) are good matchups for them.
Richmond has a full strength midfield and will dominate this 3rd string Cats midfield.
Up forward Riewoldt, Bolton, Martin, Cumberland and Ryan are all capable of kicking multiple goals against a Cats defence without SDK and Henry.

This is pretty much a full strength Richmond side without Lynch. Ryan does 90% of what Nankervis does in the ruck in dry conditions and may even be a better tap ruckman to feed the midfield dominance.

I don’t see any possible avenue that Geelong wins this.

 

[NonPhixion]

Are these the writings of a machine man with a machine heart?

Rational reasoning: the only thing this DECIMATED Geelong side has going for it this week is Hawkins and Cameron. Balta(Hawkins) and Grimes(Cameron) are good matchups for them.
Richmond has a full strength midfield and will dominate this 3rd string Cats midfield.
Up forward Riewoldt, Bolton, Martin, Cumberland and Ryan are all capable of kicking multiple goals against a Cats defence without SDK and Henry.

This is pretty much a full strength Richmond side without Lynch. Ryan does 90% of what Nankervis does in the ruck in dry conditions and may even be a better tap ruckman to feed the midfield dominance.

I don’t see any possible avenue that Geelong wins this.

Cameron is a bad matchup for anyone. Richmond struggled to get going against a WAFL team, can't see them making it look much easier against the Cats

 

[fpm84]

Are these the writings of a machine man with a machine heart?

Rational reasoning: the only thing this DECIMATED Geelong side has going for it this week is Hawkins and Cameron. Balta(Hawkins) and Grimes(Cameron) are good matchups for them.
Richmond has a full strength midfield and will dominate this 3rd string Cats midfield.
Up forward Riewoldt, Bolton, Martin, Cumberland and Ryan are all capable of kicking multiple goals against a Cats defence without SDK and Henry.

This is pretty much a full strength Richmond side without Lynch. Ryan does 90% of what Nankervis does in the ruck in dry conditions and may even be a better tap ruckman to feed the midfield dominance.

I don’t see any possible avenue that Geelong wins this.

I have put a bit of cash on Richmond H2H too but... Hardwick confirmed this morning Cumberland will play in the VFL. Riewoldt was goalless v WCE last week. Bolton and Martin could kick you a winning score but they’re averaging 1.3 and 0.7 goals respectively, so they will need significant lifts on what they’ve produced so far.

As for Geelong’s defence, SDK had played his last two games in the ruck before getting injured, and J Henry has been missing all season. Our backline got considerably better when Kolodjashnij returned in round 4 (we haven’t lost since).

The real area Geelong will be lacking in is forward pressure. Stengle, Close and Rohan are instrumental in this when we’re up and running - all three will be missing tomorrow night.

Odds of $1.90 Geelong and $1.55 Richmond sound about right to me.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Cameron is a bad matchup for anyone. Richmond struggled to get going against a WAFL team, can't see them making it look much easier against the Cats

Will he get supply from this midfield though? He would have to kick 8 against a full strength Tigs defence and won’t have Stengel and Close feeding him either(both great goal assist players).
Balta,Grimes,Vlaustin and Broad are all good defenders.
Geelongs had a pretty easy run the last 5 weeks and weren’t exactly flying before that.
Cats are a great side and will be there at the end of the season but they will lose this game.

 

[Kiddbrown]

Will he get supply from this midfield though? He would have to kick 8 against a full strength Tigs defence and won’t have Stengel and Close feeding him either(both great goal assist players).
Balta,Grimes,Vlaustin and Broad are all good defenders.
Geelongs had a pretty easy run the last 5 weeks and weren’t exactly flying before that.
Cats are a great side and will be there at the end of the season but they will lose this game.

Yes, but will you eat GROTTO’s hat if geelong win?