List Mgmt. 2023 Draft Thread - Part I

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joydivision22 said:
How we have used our 1st round pick since 2003:

- We got bits and pieces back for some of the trades but they all failed or at least proved, in different ways, not worth trading the pick (ie. Wright, White, Allison, Howard, Butler, Ryder, Jones etc).

- Drafted players that we traded I have not counted as a positive overall for obvious reasons but some were good picks initially.

- Some players I have crossed may well have been the best player within 6-7 picks either side but still did not achieve the level in which a first round pick ought to.

Clarke 8 :heavymultiply:
McQualter 17 View attachment 1820389:heavymultiply:
Watts 17 :heavymultiply:
Armitage 9 :heavycheck:
McEvoy 9 :heavycheck: eventually turned :heavymultiply:
Lynch 13 :heavymultiply:
Lee 12 :heavymultiply:
Hickey 13 :heavymultiply:
Billings 3 :heavymultiply:
Dunstan 18 :heavymultiply:
Acres 19 :heavymultiply:
McCartin 1 :heavymultiply:
Gresham 18 :heavymultiply:
Clark 7 :heavymultiply:
Coffield 8 :heavymultiply:
King 4 :heavycheck:
Hill, Howard, Jones, Ryder, Butler 6 :heavymultiply: Bad use in the end. Should have kept pick 6, which would have got us Young or Serong.
Higgins 17 :heavymultiply: Tough.. but we should've kept it and drafted Max Holmes. Allison 25 :heavymultiply:
NWM 11 :heavycheck: Great signs but pretty early still - Coffield, Gresham & Billings looked just about as impressive early.
Phillipou 10 :heavycheck: Same as above. Clearly we we're pretty lucky to get him at 10 so I'm really hopeful he becomes a top 5 level mid.

Even when counting the last 2 drafts, a 4/20 (20%) hit rate on 1st round picks all things considered over two decades is grim. However I'd be surprised if it was totally removed from the average.
Click to expand...

Wow. Even if you were playing some perverse game to pick as many duds as possible with your first rounders it would be hard to beat this..
 
Ricmel said:
Wow. Even if you were playing some perverse game to pick as many duds as possible with your first rounders it would be hard to beat this..
Click to expand...

I thought that.
I made a spreadsheet up that picked random names from knightmare's draft list for several years.
The spreadsheet picked a better team than our draft experts.
joydivision22 said:
I'd trust the stats over theory personally and especially so given our history no matter who's currently holding the gun.

Pick 2 = 80% hit rate
Pick 3 = 60%
Pick 4 = 60%
Pick 5 = 60%

Average = 65% star hit rate.

That is a hell of a lot better chance than what we've done so far with any first round pick.

How we have used our 1st round pick since 2003:

- We got bits and pieces back for some of the trades but they all failed or at least proved, in different ways, not worth trading the pick (ie. Wright, White, Allison, Howard, Butler, Ryder, Jones etc).

- Drafted players that we traded I have not counted as a positive overall for obvious reasons but some were good picks initially.

- Some players I have crossed may well have been the best player within 6-7 picks either side but still did not achieve the level in which a first round pick ought to.

Clarke 8 :heavymultiply:
McQualter 17 View attachment 1820389:heavymultiply:
Watts 17 :heavymultiply:
Armitage 9 :heavycheck:
McEvoy 9 :heavycheck: eventually turned :heavymultiply:
Lynch 13 :heavymultiply:
Lovett
Cripps
Milera / Saad /Ross
Lee 12 :heavymultiply: AND Wright
Hickey 13 :heavymultiply: (BJ compensation , also gave us improved 2nd ,3rd round picks, which we wasted of course ).
Billings 3 :heavymultiply:
Dunstan 18 :heavymultiply: ( McEvoy Trade , also came with Shane Savage).
Acres 19 :heavymultiply: ( Pick swap with the Hawks ).
McCartin 1 :heavymultiply:
Gresham 18 :heavymultiply: Along with Carlisle .
Clark 7 :heavymultiply: Long and Battle the previous year were also obtained with our 1st round draft pick trade.
Coffield 8 :heavymultiply:
King 4 :heavycheck:
Hill, Howard, Jones, Ryder, Butler 6 :heavymultiply: Bad use in the end. Should have kept pick 6, which would have got us Young or Serong.
Click to expand...
Howard Ryder and Butler used the first round pick but didn't need a first round pick. ( 4 spot downgrade on our original pick ). Close enough to say the first round pick went on Hill along with the sweeteners we had to add ( Acres, and a thankfully useless 2020 second round pick ).
joydivision22 said:
Higgins 17 :heavymultiply: Tough.. but we should've kept it and drafted Max Holmes. Allison 25 :heavymultiply:
NWM 11 :heavycheck: Great signs but pretty early still - Coffield, Gresham & Billings looked just about as impressive early.
Phillipou 10 :heavycheck: Same as above. Clearly we we're pretty lucky to get him at 10 so I'm really hopeful he becomes a top 5 level mid.

Even when counting the last 2 drafts, a 4/20 (20%) hit rate on 1st round picks all things considered over two decades is grim. However I'd be surprised if it was totally removed from the average.

Whilst we're only tracking at 33% in this sample on top 5 picks, the above is more evidence for taking the approx 65% chance on a top 5 pick even if it costs you three 12+ picks (what I'm essentially proposing). Doesn't mean it all comes off but I think worth a crack.

From our 12+ picks, we are 0/9.
Click to expand...

It doesn't change the output , but there was a bit missing in there.
Notably Seb Ross, was part of the first round pick that also got us Milera and Saad.
Josh Battle ( and Long ) was part of the first round pick we traded to the hawks in exchange for the Clark pick.
 
Victorian combine results-

VERTICAL JUMP

  1. Billy Willson (Dandenong Stingrays) – 75cm
  2. Ry Cantwell (Eastern Ranges) – 72cm
    Jacob Grant (Dandenong Stingrays) – 72cm
    Lachlan McArthur (Western Jets) – 72cm
    Geordie Payne (Tasmania Devils) – 72cm
    5. Cooper Trembath (Eastern Ranges) – 70cm
RUNNING VERTICAL JUMP

  1. Ry Cantwell (Eastern Ranges) – 91cm
    Jacob Grant (Dandenong Stingrays) – 91cm
    Billy Wilson (Dandenong Stingrays) – 91cm
    4. Cooper Trembath (Eastern Ranges) – 88cm
    5. Geordie Payne (Tasmania Devils) – 86cm
    6. Patrick Snell (Lions Academy) – 86cm
AGILITY

  1. Kristian Ferronato (Northern Knights) – 8.108 seconds
  2. Ry Cantwell (Eastern Ranges) – 8.237 seconds
  3. Geordie Payne (Tasmania Devils) – 8.357 seconds
  4. Billy Wilson (Dandenong Stingrays) – 8.357 seconds
  5. Oskar Smartt (Bendigo Pioneers) – 8.413 seconds
20m SPRINT

  1. Billy Wilson (Dandenong Stingrays) – 2.938 seconds
  2. Ry Cantwell (Eastern Ranges) – 2.950
  3. Georgie Payne (Tasmania Devils) – 2.981
  4. Lachie Charleson (GWV Rebels) – 2.991
  5. Kobe Shipp (Dandenong Stingrays) – 3.010
2KM TIME TRIAL

  1. Harvey Thomas (Giants Academy) – 5:55 mins
  2. Tom Anastasopoulos (Geelong Falcons) – 6:11
  3. Kynan Brown (Oakleigh Chargers) – 6:12
  4. Oliver Poole (Bendigo Pioneers) – 6:16
  5. Michael Rudd (Geelong Falcons) – 6:17
 
SaintsSeptember said:
I thought that.
I made a spreadsheet up that picked random names from knightmare's draft list for several years.
The spreadsheet picked a better team than our draft experts.

Howard Ryder and Butler used the first round pick but didn't need a first round pick. ( 4 spot downgrade on our original pick ). Close enough to say the first round pick went on Hill along with the sweeteners we had to add ( Acres, and a thankfully useless 2020 second round pick ).


It doesn't change the output , but there was a bit missing in there.
Notably Seb Ross, was part of the first round pick that also got us Milera and Saad.
Josh Battle ( and Long ) was part of the first round pick we traded to the hawks in exchange for the Clark pick.
Click to expand...

Thanks for filling some gaps to my half baked analysis. I probably could’ve included all the gory details but doesn’t alter the point, as you say. We burn the majority of our top picks.
 
SteeleSaints said:
Victorian combine results-

VERTICAL JUMP

  1. Billy Willson (Dandenong Stingrays) – 75cm
  2. Ry Cantwell (Eastern Ranges) – 72cm
    Jacob Grant (Dandenong Stingrays) – 72cm
    Lachlan McArthur (Western Jets) – 72cm
    Geordie Payne (Tasmania Devils) – 72cm
    5. Cooper Trembath (Eastern Ranges) – 70cm
RUNNING VERTICAL JUMP

  1. Ry Cantwell (Eastern Ranges) – 91cm
    Jacob Grant (Dandenong Stingrays) – 91cm
    Billy Wilson (Dandenong Stingrays) – 91cm
    4. Cooper Trembath (Eastern Ranges) – 88cm
    5. Geordie Payne (Tasmania Devils) – 86cm
    6. Patrick Snell (Lions Academy) – 86cm
AGILITY

  1. Kristian Ferronato (Northern Knights) – 8.108 seconds
  2. Ry Cantwell (Eastern Ranges) – 8.237 seconds
  3. Geordie Payne (Tasmania Devils) – 8.357 seconds
  4. Billy Wilson (Dandenong Stingrays) – 8.357 seconds
  5. Oskar Smartt (Bendigo Pioneers) – 8.413 seconds
20m SPRINT

  1. Billy Wilson (Dandenong Stingrays) – 2.938 seconds
  2. Ry Cantwell (Eastern Ranges) – 2.950
  3. Georgie Payne (Tasmania Devils) – 2.981
  4. Lachie Charleson (GWV Rebels) – 2.991
  5. Kobe Shipp (Dandenong Stingrays) – 3.010
2KM TIME TRIAL

  1. Harvey Thomas (Giants Academy) – 5:55 mins
  2. Tom Anastasopoulos (Geelong Falcons) – 6:11
  3. Kynan Brown (Oakleigh Chargers) – 6:12
  4. Oliver Poole (Bendigo Pioneers) – 6:16
  5. Michael Rudd (Geelong Falcons) – 6:17
Click to expand...
Yay. But can they kick a ball and find a target?
 
bergholt said:
Yeah basically happens every year. "Next year's a superdraft!" "Oh yeah it wasn't sorry, we were wrong."

I think they say it just so it makes future pick trading more palatable.
Click to expand...


This is one of those vague statements that has some truth to it but there are definitely super drafts and they know about them coming up a couple of years out. This year was supposed to have a few really high end players but not much depth. Last year an even draft with lots of even quality. Reid and Watson looked better than a lot of the guys that went last year playing against them though.

It's a weird draft with not much midfield talent and next year is the opposite. Lots of clubs don't rate this draft outside the top 7 or so players and fo good reason. I think it's a real gamblers draft. Good players will come out of it but apart from the pointy end they all come with question marks.

Unfortunately we seem to think it's a good one to get into because of Covid effecting the build up for some of them. It means projecting more than most years. It's guys like Wilson, Windsor, DeMattia that look like they could b surprise very good players to me. Maybe a few like Moir and Phillactides who dropped away too. Otherwise it's not a draft I'd be all in on.
 
gringo2011 said:
This is one of those vague statements that has some truth to it but there are definitely super drafts and they know about them coming up a couple of years out. This year was supposed to have a few really high end players but not much depth. Last year an even draft with lots of even quality. Reid and Watson looked better than a lot of the guys that went last year playing against them though.

It's a weird draft with not much midfield talent and next year is the opposite. Lots of clubs don't rate this draft outside the top 7 or so players and fo good reason. I think it's a real gamblers draft. Good players will come out of it but apart from the pointy end they all come with question marks.

Unfortunately we seem to think it's a good one to get into because of Covid effecting the build up for some of them. It means projecting more than most years. It's guys like Wilson, Windsor, DeMattia that look like they could b surprise very good players to me. Maybe a few like Moir and Phillactides who dropped away too. Otherwise it's not a draft I'd be all in on.
Click to expand...

I guess we find out this draft if Toce is the real deal. I'm almost at the point where i think we should trade our early picks for future picks.
 
SaintsSeptember said:
I guess we find out this draft if Toce is the real deal. I'm almost at the point where i think we should trade our early picks for future picks.
Click to expand...


I would use them at the front end now because you waste time waiting. If it takes and average of 5 years to start peaking, waiting an extra year makes it a long way off.
 

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Klaatu said:
Never heard of this guy but jot down Caleb Windsor from Eatern rangers we are right into him for our selection.
Click to expand...


Yeah Stavro mentioned that already. I prefer Wilson but Windsor looks good too. Looks like one of those premiership Hawks the way he plays.
 
gringo2011 said:
This is one of those vague statements that has some truth to it but there are definitely super drafts and they know about them coming up a couple of years out. This year was supposed to have a few really high end players but not much depth. Last year an even draft with lots of even quality. Reid and Watson looked better than a lot of the guys that went last year playing against them though.

It's a weird draft with not much midfield talent and next year is the opposite. Lots of clubs don't rate this draft outside the top 7 or so players and fo good reason. I think it's a real gamblers draft. Good players will come out of it but apart from the pointy end they all come with question marks.

Unfortunately we seem to think it's a good one to get into because of Covid effecting the build up for some of them. It means projecting more than most years. It's guys like Wilson, Windsor, DeMattia that look like they could b surprise very good players to me. Maybe a few like Moir and Phillactides who dropped away too. Otherwise it's not a draft I'd be all in on.
Click to expand...
They've said they'll take 3 so l read into that it won't be "all in".
I reckon with King, Nas, Chito and Pou that we probably have some star potential and the aim is to just build the cake.
I also think Sanders and Olli Murphy are the targets, so we'll see how it plays out coz Norff and WC are still positioning themselves.
 
gringo2011 said:
Yeah Stavro mentioned that already. I prefer Wilson but Windsor looks good too. Looks like one of those premiership Hawks the way he plays.
Click to expand...
Windsor and Wilson are both beautiful movers, but Windsor has a harder edge. Wilson is purely outside and lacks a contested game at this stage. Windsor is also mainly an outside player, but is a very good tackler, is a good mark, generally uses it ok and is a goalkicker. He is a quintessential winger, whereas I believe Wilson may end up as more a forward. The bloke I really like, who seems to be bolting up the boards, is Charlie Edwards, 190cm mid, who has a few Bont characteristics about him!!
 
Scoop said:
Windsor and Wilson are both beautiful movers, but Windsor has a harder edge. Wilson is purely outside and lacks a contested game at this stage. Windsor is also mainly an outside player, but is a very good tackler, is a good mark, generally uses it ok and is a goalkicker. He is a quintessential winger, whereas I believe Wilson may end up as more a forward. The bloke I really like, who seems to be bolting up the boards, is Charlie Edwards, 190cm mid, who has a few Bont characteristics about him!!
Click to expand...

I think you are under selling Wilson's midfield game. He plays as a balanced midfielder, who although likes to get on the outside to use his speed he can win the ball in close. Given we are trading in Henry and have other wingmen on the list, Wilson as a break away midfielder would be my choice.

SNAPSHOT: “Darcy Wilson is a smooth moving midfielder-forward with high level running capacity and all-round athleticism.”

Windsor is much more the outstide genuine wingman type.

SNAPSHOT: “Caleb Windsor is a speedy outside runner capable of carving up the opposition in attacking phases, and laying rundown tackles on the defensive end.”
 
Last edited:
SteeleSaints said:
I think you are under selling Wilson's midfield game. He plays as a balanced midfielder, who although likes to get on the outside to use his speed he can win the ball in close. Given we are trading in Henry and have other wingmen on the list, Wilson as a break away midfielder would be my choice.

SNAPSHOT: “Darcy Wilson is a smooth moving midfielder-forward with high level running capacity and all-round athleticism.”

Windsor is much more the outstide genuine wingman type.

SNAPSHOT: “Caleb Windsor is a speedy outside runner capable of carving up the opposition in attacking phases, and laying rundown tackles on the defensive end.”
Click to expand...
Fair enough. I would actually take Charlie Edwards over both of them!
 
MOLTEN GANGLANDS said:
windsor for me, looks harder, sharper, good disposal, fast, powerful runner, tackles well. Keen! Wilson looks like a bust, it's time for him to give it away imo
Click to expand...


WTF? Wilson look's a gun. Looks like a second coming of Lenny Hayes with his side step and his ability to set up others.

 
We are definitely just outside a real clear top 12-13 kids, probably choosing from a lance collard (small forward), Charlie edwards (big bodied mid), Harry demattia (mid), Archie roberts (small half back) and a few others, maybe there is some merit in trying to slide back and get 2 early 2nd round picks

1-wc: Harley Reid
2-gc: jed Walter (bid matched)
3-nm: Colby mckercher
4-nm: Zane duurmsa
5-haw: Dan curtin
6-dogs: nick watson
7-suns: Ethan read (bid matched)
8-melb: Nate caddy
9-gws: Connor O’Sullivan
10-cats: ryley Sanders
11-ess: Caleb Windsor
12-ade: Ollie Murphy
13-melb: Darcy Wilson
14-syd:
15-st.k:
 
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