Prediction 2023 Ladder Prediction Thread

[lewdogs]

I had St kilda 11th on last years ladder prediction and St kilda fans abused me over it for months. Come round 5 I got about 20 tags saying that they were going to win the premiership and that I was "Re****ed" my only response was "It's a long season" and they ended up finishing 10th xD

I didn't see what all the hype was about back then and I see it even less here now.

Saints fans abused you for months for having us 11th on your ladder predictor? I seriously doubt that. Cool story though.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Now that the fixture is out, this is my revised ladder.
I didn't worry too much about margins, so don't pay attention to percentages.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Now that the fixture is out, this is my revised ladder.
I didn't worry too much about margins, so don't pay attention to percentages.
View attachment 1571767

So almost absolutely nothing will change from 2022 but North and Hawthorn will swap amount of victories?

That's the tough part about doing predictions this time of year. It's mostly based on recency bias.

I do agree with Collingwoods finishing position though. Lightening can't strike in regards to close victories, but have they improved their list enough to make up for that?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Ross used tactics that suited the way the game was played at the time.

His fingerprints were all over Sydney’s 2005 flag, and then the “frontal-pressure” that he implemented in 2009 was brilliant, and clubs have largely used it ever since, while by the time he finished at Freo, I’m pretty sure they were playing a much more attacking brand of footy.

Top 4 for both offence and defence before they got crunched by injuries, I believe.

And at his presser recently he sounded like he was well on top of how footy is played these days (having analysed it on Footy Classified for two years) and that he believes with the stand rule in particular, that it’s all about being a running team now.

He also said that while doing his due-diligence on the club that those in the industry he spoke to about us told him that our list well-and-truly had the capabilities of being an elite type running team, so clearly he intends on having us play very differently to how some of his teams have played in the past.

It sounds like we’re already doing match-sim, so maybe we will do a Collingwood, and hit the ground running, with a new game-plan that re-invigorates the group.

Or not. Only time will tell.

What clubs wouldn’t be doing some sort of match sim right now?

 

[Football Tragic]

So much intrigue around the coaches next year and what they will be able to achieve. It's really hard to make a ladder prediction based off that though but I'll try.

Freo - have everything they need to win the whole kit and caboodle this year. Youth, enthusiasm, strong defensive game plan and stars across every line. They are the real deal.
Brisbane - Why not?! Really have everything and should finish top four now after shoring up their list. They just need to improve their defensive line up and learn to support Andrews as a backline unit.
Richmond - As much as many would like them and Geelong to drop off the face of the ladder, Richmond ahve improved on their greatest weakness and should improve on their ladder prediction as a result. Taranto, Hopper and a fit Dusty will make a big difference to their fortunes.
Sydney - have been building for years now and have the basis of a flag contender. Just need to build up the consistency and body strength to compete against the experienced teams in finals. Geelong monstered them through size and will alone.
GWS - will surprize many by making finals. Despite losing quality players they have an embarassment of riches. They have so much deoth and with a new game plan they are on the rise.
Collingwood - McCrae (& Leppa) had an awesome first year but will the same message achieve the same affect two years running? Maybe.
Geelong will finally take a dip...to 5th. They have been desperate to win a flag to reward their aging stars but, with that now achieved and Selwood retired, I think that will be the 1% drop off that will see them slip out of the top 4.
Carlton - The Blues have been building and were on the precipice last year before disappointingly falling away. I think they will be better for that experience.


Melbourne - always known for their midfield grunt they have been found wanting forward of late. They havn't done anything to improve this and other teams are now matching them around the contest. They need to find more avenues to goal and a better connection between their mids and forwards to move into flag contention.
Adelaide - if their supporters can unify behind the club and allow them to build their list without handicapping the process through impatience, they will finish just outside the 8 and be ready to launch beyond that.
Essendon - a new coach will have the faithful excited after a big start to the season. Unfortunately, I feel they will gradually drop away after that. In 2024, they will be a finals team.
Power - they will push for finals but fall away around half season. Hinkley needs a huge season and I feel they will step up under the spotlight this year. Robin Hood and Flowersee will step back up after average years (for them at least).
Saints - Ross and Scott are proud, experienced coaches. I would expect both teams to look immediately better and hit the ground running in 2023. Will they be able to maintain the rage as the year goes on - history says it's unlikely but they will definitely be on the right track.
Bulldogs - a fear they are in no mans land atm. They need change - coach, game plan, players. I fear Bevo might not see the year out.
Gold Coast - Sadly, I can't see them moving out of the 16th - 8th range. I love the way their forwardline worked this year but it won't be enough.
Eagles - this year will be about discovery and rediscovering their identities. Their home crowd will help them win and few close games but they'll struggle away.
Hawthorn - In a rebuild faze, they will still pull out the odd spectacular performance to surprize. I can see them beating the top team one week and lose to the bottom team the weak after. All about building consistency, experience and understanding between players this season.
North - Could easily leap up the ladder this year with Clarkson but I think it'll be more a slow build than a launch. Regardless, I think they'll be a much steelier, disciplined team in 2023.

 

[BuffDog]

Post fixture prediction:

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Brisbane
4. Sydney
5. Fremantle
6. Carlton
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Richmond

9. Collingwood
10. Port Adelaide
11. St Kilda
12. Essendon
13. Gold Coast
14. Adelaide
15. North Melbourne
16. GWS
17. West Coast
18. Hawthorn

 

[aussierulesrules]

Owens, Windhager, Phillipou, Clark, Coffield, Wanganeen-Milera, Battle, Hayes, Hotton. Plenty of bright players not to mention King and Marshall whose best is yet to come. They are not an old team by any stretch of the imagination with nobody seemingly on the verge of decline.

I'd rather have a crack and try and predict something ballsy rather than just reshuffle the exact eight sides that played finals this year like 3/4 of the posts in this thread

Yeah that’s why I find it quite bewildering so many tipping us to finish bottom 2 or 4.

We’ve been right in the finals hunt for the last 3 years- the last two off brutally difficult draws- and have literally no-one in our likely best 22 who’s a good chance of declining because of age, yet on the flip-side, we have a significant list of guys who haven’t fully or even partially “broken out” yet. Which usually suggests a team a lot more likely to improve, than decline:

King
Marshall
Gresham
Higgins
Clark
Coffield
Battle
Wanganeen-Milera
Windhager
Owens
Sharman
Paton
Hayes
Phillipou

The best footy could extremely easily be ahead of all 14 of those blokes (plus other young ones), plus there are a handful who are older, who Ratts really struggled to get the best out of consistently, who Lyon may:

Hill
Jones
Billings
Butler

The draw we were handed yesterday is also very helpful. Looks FAR easier than the last two years, including double-ups against North and Hawthorn- the potential bottom 2 teams- two extra games at Marvel, and 1 less game interstate/Geelong.

If we’d had that draw this year Ratts would likely still be in a job. He’d have killed for that draw.

 

[adammania9]

Yeah that’s why I find it quite bewildering so many tipping us to finish bottom 2 or 4.

We’ve been right in the finals hunt for the last 3 years- the last two off brutally difficult draws- and have literally no-one in our likely best 22 who’s a good chance of declining because of age, yet on the flip-side, we have a significant list of guys who haven’t fully or even partially “broken out” yet. Which usually suggests a team a lot more likely to improve, than decline:

King
Marshall
Gresham
Higgins
Clark
Coffield
Battle
Wanganeen-Milera
Windhager
Owens
Sharman
Paton
Hayes
Phillipou

The best footy could extremely easily be ahead of all 14 of those blokes (plus other young ones), plus there are a handful who are older, who Ratts really struggled to get the best out of consistently, who Lyon may:

Hill
Jones
Billings
Butler

The draw we were handed yesterday is also very helpful. Looks FAR easier than the last two years, including double-ups against North and Hawthorn- the potential bottom 2 teams- two extra games at Marvel, and 1 less game interstate/Geelong.

If we’d had that draw this year Ratts would likely still be in a job. He’d have killed for that draw.

With 10 and 11 wins in the last two “down” seasons, it’s not inconceivable that the Saints can plug some holes and have a few players break out and get up to 14-15 wins and have a crack at top four.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Now that the fixture is out, this is my revised ladder.
I didn't worry too much about margins, so don't pay attention to percentages.
View attachment 1571767

2 wins?

 

[tiger_tough]

1. Brisbane
2. Geelong
3. Richmond
4. Melbourne
5. Sydney
6. Carlton
7. Bulldogs
8. Freo
9. Collingwood
10. Port Adelaide
11. GWS
12. Suns
13. Essendon
14. Saints
15. Adelaide
16. West Coast
17. North
18. Hawks

After seeing the fixture I'm going to change it slightly

1. Brisbane
2. Melbourne
3. Richmond
4. Geelong
5. Sydney
6. Carlton
7. Bulldogs
8. Freo
9. Collingwood
10. Port Adelaide
11. GWS
12. Suns
13. Essendon
14. Saints
15. Adelaide
16. West Coast
17. North
18. Hawks

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

2 wins?

I was feeling generous

 

[t_94]

I had St kilda 11th on last years ladder prediction and St kilda fans abused me over it for months. Come round 5 I got about 20 tags saying that they were going to win the premiership and that I was "Re****ed" my only response was "It's a long season" and they ended up finishing 10th xD

I didn't see what all the hype was about back then and I see it even less here now.

You are very smart !

 

[t_94]

I think Carlton and Essendon will make top 4 because they are big 4 clubs.

 

[blueiris]

I think Carlton and Essendon will make top 4 because they are big 4 clubs.

That’s fair both do have an easy fixture next season

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I was feeling generous

You must really rate Mitchell, O’meara and Gunston.

Yet, you don’t have the three teams they went to improving much at all, seems a bit odd.

 

[aussierulesrules]

What clubs wouldn’t be doing some sort of match sim right now?

It seemed early, first week of preseason. Though they are starting later now.

The reports coming from training are that it’s all about moving the ball on super-fast and aggressively and ideally, through the corridor. Those who are taking the safe option out wide, or moving it on slowly are being “strongly challenged”.

Seems like we’re going to be playing a lot more like Collingwood of this year than like Ross’s teams of a decade or more ago.

 

[My Tilly]

1. Brisbane
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. Port Adelaide
5. Fremantle
6. Sydney
7. Carlton
8. Geelong

 

[timokane]

To make top 8 i have

In no order still too early and i know its ony 2 weeks from xmas

Collingwood (onwards and upwards at pieland the place has harmony)
Freo (see how they go but they have a good coach in Longmure i think they can)
Lions ( see swans again another solid season beckons)
Swans (make use of a great 2022 so no dip)
Carlton (they just have to)
Dees ( 1 more time some saying that other teams have worked them out and may miss but i still have them in there)
Cats (would not be finals without the cats they always seam to be there all the time)
Tigers (trying finals out 1 more time)

These finals.

Qualify i have

Collingwood v Swans or Lions or Dees in a QF at the MCG
Cats v Swans or Dees or Tigers at the mcg

Elims i have

Tigers v Blues or Collingwood or cats
Blues v Collingwood or Dees or cat

The elims look more juciey then the qfs.

Teams that are stiff not to mkae it are:

Power i still have them a chance
Dogs still think they can make at least an elimination final

Not sure on the rest
Saints i think are finally on the right track but 23 isnt the year i have them 24 but so too Crows and North to some extent.
Forget the rest.

Apart from hawks for the spoon i also have gws there as rock bottom.
Think north and crows can come out of that bottom rungs and replaced by gws and either suns or say west coast.

Thinking if Tippen woody can play well and play a full season i can see Essendon improving from 2022 i have them on same tradjectory as that of the crows and maybe suns. Tippen hold the key to essendons season.

 

[Freomaniac]

Ross used tactics that suited the way the game was played at the time.

His fingerprints were all over Sydney’s 2005 flag, and then the “frontal-pressure” that he implemented in 2009 was brilliant, and clubs have largely used it ever since, while by the time he finished at Freo, I’m pretty sure they were playing a much more attacking brand of footy.

Top 4 for both offence and defence before they got crunched by injuries, I believe.

And at his presser recently he sounded like he was well on top of how footy is played these days (having analysed it on Footy Classified for two years) and that he believes with the stand rule in particular, that it’s all about being a running team now.

He also said that while doing his due-diligence on the club that those in the industry he spoke to about us told him that our list well-and-truly had the capabilities of being an elite type running team, so clearly he intends on having us play very differently to how some of his teams have played in the past.

It sounds like we’re already doing match-sim, so maybe we will do a Collingwood, and hit the ground running, with a new game-plan that re-invigorates the group.

Or not. Only time will tell.

So.... What do you really think Rossy Lyon will do? LoL

 

[Freomaniac]

Now that the fixture is out, this is my revised ladder.
I didn't worry too much about margins, so don't pay attention to percentages.
View attachment 1571767

There is no way I see the dockers get 15 wins with their fixture, got Geelong, swans, Brisbane, dogs , eagles and hawks as double ups.

And how the hell is collingwood stealing Richmonds traditional 9th spot?!!!

And with 15 bloody wins and 8 losses?!!!

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

You must really rate Mitchell, O’meara and Gunston.

Yet, you don’t have the three teams they went to improving much at all, seems a bit odd.

I'm so sorry that my opinion doesn't match yours.
An average team losing two of their best 4 ball winners and their 2nd best goal kicker is obviously going to have more of an impact for the Hawks, than Mitchell going to the Pies, Gunston going to the Lions, or Jaeger going to Freo.

How many of those 8 wins this year do you think you would've had without those 3 players? 3 of the wins were Crows, Eagles, North. JOM and Titch played in all wins. Gunston kicked 19 goals in 5 wins and 13 goals in 11 losses.

So Pies get Mitchell, but Pendles and Sidebottom are both another year older (35 and 32). They scraped through a lot of games this year by the skin of their tooth. If they don't improve enough to win those games comfortably next year, the law of averages says that they aren't likely to repeat that.

Gunston to the Lions will be some nice veteran leadership, but do they really need him? Whose spot does he take? They've played finals for a few years now and have quite a few guys with finals experience now. How many more wins does he bring to the table?

Jaeger is a nice enough player, but what does he bring to the table that Freo don't already have? He's also potentially one more injury away from his career ending.

They might win more than 2 games (my list was less about the win/loss counts and more about the positions), but they will still likely be in hot contention for the spoon...

...but at the end of the day, it's just a random stranger's prediction, so don't stress too much about it.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

There is no way I see the dockers get 15 wins with their fixture, got Geelong, swans, Brisbane, dogs , eagles and hawks as double ups.

And how the hell is collingwood stealing Richmonds traditional 9th spot?!!!

And with 15 bloody wins and 8 losses?!!!

Don't put too much focus into the win/loss numbers or the percentages. I think the top 4 could all easily swap places, and then the next 6 are also fairly easily interchangeable.
Just look at this bit.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

There is no way I see the dockers get 15 wins with their fixture, got Geelong, swans, Brisbane, dogs , eagles and hawks as double ups.

And how the hell is collingwood stealing Richmonds traditional 9th spot?!!!

And with 15 bloody wins and 8 losses?!!!

As for Freo, I reckon you have 11 games that you could/should be considered favourites in.
If the other 11 are 50/50...
You get to play Cats, Lions, Dogs, Swans and Tigers at home (not forgetting that this year you beat Cats in Geelong, Dogs at Marvel and home, beat Dees at the G and drew with Tigers).

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'm so sorry that my opinion doesn't match yours.
An average team losing two of their best 4 ball winners and their 2nd best goal kicker is obviously going to have more of an impact for the Hawks, than Mitchell going to the Pies, Gunston going to the Lions, or Jaeger going to Freo.

How many of those 8 wins this year do you think you would've had without those 3 players? 3 of the wins were Crows, Eagles, North. JOM and Titch played in all wins. Gunston kicked 19 goals in 5 wins and 13 goals in 11 losses.

So Pies get Mitchell, but Pendles and Sidebottom are both another year older (35 and 32). They scraped through a lot of games this year by the skin of their tooth. If they don't improve enough to win those games comfortably next year, the law of averages says that they aren't likely to repeat that.

Gunston to the Lions will be some nice veteran leadership, but do they really need him? Whose spot does he take? They've played finals for a few years now and have quite a few guys with finals experience now. How many more wins does he bring to the table?

Jaeger is a nice enough player, but what does he bring to the table that Freo don't already have? He's also potentially one more injury away from his career ending.

They might win more than 2 games (my list was less about the win/loss counts and more about the positions), but they will still likely be in hot contention for the spoon...

...but at the end of the day, it's just a random stranger's prediction, so don't stress too much about it.

Oh it doesn't worry me, I just thought it amusing that losing those 3 players will have Hawthorn fall in a hole, yet the clubs they go to won't really improve.

 

[AnEmptyChair]

Tiers can pretty much be in any order. The lower half of the 8 is going to be super competitive next year.

Tier 1

1. Brisbane
2. Melbourne
3. Geelong

Tier 2

4. Fremantle
5. Carlton
6. Richmond
7. Collingwood
8. Sydney
9. Gold Coast
10. Western Bulldogs

Tier 3

11. Adelaide
12. Port Adelaide
13. Essendon
14. St Kilda

Tier 4

15. North Melbourne
16. GWS
17. West Coast
18. Hawthorn