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2023 Ladder Predictor

  • Thread starter Thread starter allrighty
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Footy_Fan2007 said:
Gee that’s brave. What makes you confident?
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Brave?
Some say deluded, but given the wisdom and knowledge of the poster who wrote it, he is mostly proven to be in the ball-park.
Dwayne was saying that we could do this without making top 4 based on the possibility of multiple "home" finals at the G
 

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Tigers not dead yet.
In any case, our fate is in our hands.
 
catempire said:
Dead.
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Jimmy Yamazaki said:
Yup, still think they have a good chance to make it. Easy run, will upset someone like Dees or Saints.
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Their list, once Lynch gets back- I would hate to play them at the G tnis season.
In fact they already beat us.
We don't need to worry about them, but I want to see them lose a few.
I don't actually hate the team, more their entitled supporters that annoy at games, but they are so intense at the contests, it's not good knowing they are at our heels if we falter more than they do.
 
Vdubs said:
Their list, once Lynch gets back- I would hate to play them at the G tnis season.
In fact they already beat us.
We don't need to worry about them, but I want to see them lose a few.
I don't actually hate the team, more their entitled supporters that annoy at games, but they are so intense at the contests, it's not good knowing they are at our heels if we falter more than they do.
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I think Lynch is out for the rest of the H&A so they will have to get to finals without him.

And nah I hate Tiges, beat us 3 times in finals = bunch of flogs. Same as Dawks.
 
Vdubs said:
Their list, once Lynch gets back- I would hate to play them at the G tnis season.
In fact they already beat us.
We don't need to worry about them, but I want to see them lose a few.
I don't actually hate the team, more their entitled supporters that annoy at games, but they are so intense at the contests, it's not good knowing they are at our heels if we falter more than they do.
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What a bizarre way to look at it. We have an exciting run in where we'll leave the season early or hit finals in good form. 5 games at home to give the fans something to cheer about. Richmond have as many tough games as us and probably need to win 6 of the last 7.
 

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Mr Meow said:
What a bizarre way to look at it. We have an exciting run in where we'll leave the season early or hit finals in good form. 5 games at home to give the fans something to cheer about. Richmond have as many tough games as us and probably need to win 6 of the last 7.
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Bizarre today.
If we win a couple, won't be on my list of footy issues
 
Jimmy Yamazaki said:
I think Lynch is out for the rest of the H&A so they will have to get to finals without him.

And nah I hate Tiges, beat us 3 times in finals = bunch of flogs. Same as Dawks.
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Some of their players I really rate- Dusty, Vlaustin, Cotchin, Prestia, Bolton, Balta
 
From that I guess we really do need to hope for a St Kilda loss though.

My dream scenario remains St Kilda beating Melbourne, Adelaide beating Essendon and then Geelong beating Essendon the week after. Top 8 would be looking good and top 4 a chance.
 

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Mr Meow said:
Damn girl you're on fire with the probability based insights lately.

Can you please post for top 4, and then again if Melbourne lose on the weekend? I'm abroad and struggle for finding markets on some of this stuff sometimes.
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IMG_2753.jpeg
 
catempire said:
View attachment 1731153
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So our chances of winning the flag are almost the same as making top 4.

It would be reliant on Melbourne's slump continuing with losses vs St Kilda and Brisbane. Then they lose when travelling to Sydney or playing Richmond.

St Kilda to lose to Richmond, lose to us, fail on their trip to the Gabba.

Bulldogs to lose vs Collingwood, on their trip to the SCG and to Geelong.

This would let us lose one more game and still make top 4. Never stop believing!
 
Really need to finish 4th or 5th or we are in trouble.
Finishing any lower than that pretty much guarantees we would be facing a knockout final interstate as port and lions will probably finish 2 and 3.
Even if we finish 7th, the crows could pinch 6th and we would be gone week 1. Even winning that would mean another interstate trip week 2.

The only way we can realistically win the flag imo is if we go on a winning streak starting from now, finish 4th and hit the finals in white hot form.

But as I’ve said before, i think we’ve left it too late now. Poor losses to GWS (especially) , Richmond, Carlton and the Gold Coast have really made it difficult.
 
Footy_Fan2007 said:
Really need to finish 4th or 5th or we are in trouble.
Finishing any lower than that pretty much guarantees we would be facing a knockout final interstate as port and lions will probably finish 2 and 3.
Even if we finish 7th, the crows could pinch 6th and we would be gone week 1. Even winning that would mean another interstate trip week 2.

The only way we can realistically win the flag imo is if we go on a winning streak starting from now, finish 4th and hit the finals in white hot form.

But as I’ve said before, i think we’ve left it too late now. Poor losses to GWS (especially) , Richmond, Carlton and the Gold Coast have really made it difficult.
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If we don't finish 4th it comes down to this for favourable outcomes:

-Finish 5th, Port finishes 1st
*Likely outcome: Victorian EF, Melbourne SF, Collingwood PF, Port GF

-Finish 6th, Collingwood finishes 1st
*Likely outcome: Victorian EF, Brisbane SF, Collingwood PF, Port GF

Anything else and a Port PF in Adelaide would be very likely - one game I just don't see us winning even at top form.
 
Mr Meow said:
If we don't finish 4th it comes down to this for favourable outcomes:

-Finish 5th, Port finishes 1st
*Likely outcome: Victorian EF, Melbourne SF, Collingwood PF, Port GF

-Finish 6th, Collingwood finishes 1st
*Likely outcome: Victorian EF, Brisbane SF, Collingwood PF, Port GF

Anything else and a Port PF in Adelaide would be very likely - one game I just don't see us winning even at top form.
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It’s a mammoth task to win it all from here.
It can be done but it’s bloody unlikely.
I guess we can hope until it’s mathematically impossible.
 

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