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List Mgmt. 2023 List Management

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We need Cunners fit, or someone to replace him.
I wonder if Cam Rayner could be an option? Not sure if he'd fit into our group too well given how big and bulky we already are but he's been relegated to a half back role this year with others in his place up forward. Certainly has the scope to be an extremely damaging fwd half player

OOC end of year too and Brisbanes cap would be getting pretty full
 

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In practice match today, North vs Bulldogs, Jones at full-back for Bullies is playing extremely well. 9 touches, 5marks in 1st quarter. Did we make a mistake not trying to re-list him? Would have been great backup for Weits.
Obviously we made a mistake. Would have been the difference last year and likely would have helped us this year. Is twice the player Young is.
 
On the one hand he's playing well, in a practice match. Against North, who have a new coach, who's arguably a spent force.

On the other hand he completely ****ed us over when it came to covid protocol requirements and effectively ejected himself out of the league for a year.

There's no version of that where he doesn't wind up at a new club. Total disregard for the safety of others.

What a pile of horse dung..
 
Geelong's first and if TDK fires add a future 2nd

I reckon we'll do better as long as TDK doesn't get injured or perform so poorly he tanks his value.

Geelong gave up their first rounder last year for Tanner Bruhn, who they clearly rate, but ultimately is a midfield prospect who hasn't done anything of note yet. He was a depth player at GWS, struggling for midfield time.

Luke Jackson had a great highlights reel but was yet to put together a great season, and Freo gave up two first rounders a second rounder for Jackson and some late picks.

I'd benchmark TDK somewhere between these two. He hasn't shown as much as Jackson, but has shown more than Bruhn. He doesn't have the positional flexibility of Jackson, but as an athletic ruck/fwd prospect he holds more market value than a general midfielder. From our perspective, our ruck stocks aren't spectacular, and we'd be relying on Lemmey having a phenomenal breakout year to give us a ruck/fwd option in 2024, otherwise we'd have to go shopping ourselves and there's no guarantee what kind of quality we'd be able to pull. Our price has to factor in what TDK's loss would do to our list profile.

First and a second would be my starting point. Spread them over this year and next if necessary. (Edit: Caveat here, I'm assuming the first rounder is Geelong's, but they don't have a second this year and I'd want the second rounder to be in the early to mid 20's, so Geelong would need to go shopping). If he explodes this year and surpasses Pittonet to become our sole preferred ruck, that comfortably becomes two first rounders.
 
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If, TDK wanted out, a mid 1st + a later 1st is probably about the mark in overall value
He’ll need a very impressive season to command that much mate.

Let’s hope the reported interest is that high should he choose to leave, and make it a very competitive scenario. Even better, let’s hope he stays.
 
Even if he is uncontracted?

The contracted/uncontracted thing gets overblown here I reckon. It almost gets to the extreme where people assume an uncontracted player can be gotten for a third rounder and a contracted one is automatically a first rounder minimum.

Being uncontracted maybe gives Geelong a slightly stronger bargaining position at the trade table, but only insofar as TDK could spit the dummy and walk to the PSD if he felt we were screwing him over. That play doesn't get him to Geelong though, hell, if we finish below Geelong on the ladder we could just redraft him ourselves.

Geelong don't deal like Essendon though. They'll recognise the position they're in, and we're in, and will trade fairly if it comes to that. They value the draft a lot less than most clubs, because they have the culture and lifestyle carrots to dangle in order to attract proven talent in positions of need.
 
I'm not buying into too much discussion on TDK for a variety of reasons, but if (big 'if') he was to leave, I liken his value to something like Saad. Something like a mid first, and a swap of later picks our way... Anyway, he is still in Blue, and until I hear otherwise, that's the way I see TDK.
 
Our position on TDK only becomes weak if the likes of Hawthorn or North come up with an offer that's too good for him to refuse. There's no way he gets to Geelong other than by a fair(ish) trade.
Clubs reported as circling are St Kilda and Essendon. Geelong will be there if they can clear sufficient cap space for an offer. Someone has alerted me to a current monster, long term offer from a “powerhouse” which is not my info to publicise.
 

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Clubs reported as circling are St Kilda and Essendon. Geelong will be there if they can clear sufficient cap space for an offer. Someone has alerted me to a current monster, long term offer from a “powerhouse” which is not my info to publicise.

An offer from a “Powerhouse” club rules St Kilda out!

On the AFL 360 podcast Barrett said the Saints, Sydney, Hawthorn and Essendon are all sniffing around with the Saints via SOS being the most aggressive. Geelong were mentioned but he also said they’d struggle with cap space to make a competitive offer.

I doubt he leaves unless it’s Geelong or maybe Sydney.
 
I would prefer he leaves to Sydney or Geelong then Essendon just so we don't have to deal with DoDo. Despite likely having lesser picks they are fairer to deal with. That said, I doubt either club can or is desperate enough to blow us out of the water contract wise so he'll only go there if not getting opportunitty with us. There are alot of variables with TDK but I essentially see 3 scenarios.

Scenario 1 - TDK plays less then 15 games as a clear number 2 to Pitto. Spends alot of the year in the VFL as the 2 ruck strategy fails. Form doesn't improve or regressses from last year. We still offer him a reasonable contract based on potential (approx 400-500k x 2). Almost 100% he leaves for more opportunitty. Geelong in play here. We get a late 1st for him at best.

Scenario 2 - TDK plays 15-20 games and builds on last years form. At times he plays 2nd fiddle to Pitto while at others due to injury / form / matchups he is the main man. We offer him a reasonable contract based on output (approx 500k x 4). Some bottom clubs offer big money. Clubs like Geelong and Sydney offer him healthy money but not enough to entice him away. 50 / 50 whether he stays or goes. If he leaves it will be for money to a rebuilding club but will mean forgoing success in the short term. We probably get a mid-late 1st rounder plus other pick upgrades.

Scenario 3 - TDK dominates, becomes our clear number 1 ruck and one of our best players. We offer him a big contract but still unders compared to others (approx 700k x 4-5). We move some other pieces around to accommodate him. He probably stays for success, following the example of others. If for some reason he does leave we get two mid to late 1sts for him, or an early 1st plus a 2nd.

I think scenario 2 is most likely.
 
Why do I get the feeling you can never "win" a trade with Geelong. Canny Cats are deadset canny. Best we'll ever do with them is break even which looking at some of our landfill efforts of the past might even be considered a win.
 
When it comes to fair value in a trade the size of the contract and number of clubs competing for the player plays a big part.

In the case of TDK I think his value is significant because if he leaves it will be on a big contract for a lot of years.

I think he'd be worth 1 good first rounder plus a late first or early second.

But I only think he leaves if we play him in the 2s again (like we did late last year).

That's the only reason he hasn't resigned already in my opinion.

And according to Kane Cornes it will be for 13 billion per season for 10 years.
 
FWIW I am expecting a TDK/JSOS/Crippa ruck combo for the first couple of rounds.

I still have Pitto a nose in front (yeah I know) for the first ruck spot, but think he is up against it being ready to do the lion’s share by round 1. Think we are better served giving some responsibility and hopefully confidence to the heir apparent, as opposed to playing our probable first choice guy for 40% ruck time.

Let’s get Pittonet 100% to run out the season and give TDK, off a full pre season, the chance to show his wares. Allows for another runner in the team, which is somewhat a bonus with our powerful but somewhat pedestrian midfield.
 
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