Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup Day (3200m)no after timing posts.

[Areyoufireal]

Race order fore those on the same race multi places..

Winner: Knight's Choice
2: Warp Speed
3: Okita Soushi
4: Zardozi
5: Absurde
6: Circle of Fire
7: Fancy Man
8: Land Legend
9: Buckaroo
10: Kovalica
11: Vauban
12: Onesmoothoperator
13: Valiant King
14: Sea King
15: Interpretation
16: Sharp 'N' Smart
17: Trust In You
18: Mostly Cloudy
19: Manzoice
20: Positivity
21: The Map
22: Saint George
23: Just Fine

 

[Jugada]

Yep agree about Via Sistina, just weird that her runs are pretty much identical to Veery Elleegants 2021 MC win. Same weekend gaps as 2021, 3 WFA races and 1 handicap. Both quality mares.

Would be a long shot but he has done last minute in the past….

‘I didn’t want to run her’: Waller’s startling admission over Verry Elleegant’s Cup triumph

While other Sydney-based trainers and even Ireland’s Joseph O’Brien made last-minute dashes to Melbourne, the champion conditioner watched his first Cup victory from home.

www.theage.com.au

They're pretty much the same as Winx too and pretty standard for a Cox Plate prep. VE had already won two G1s over 2400m and run in a Melbourne Cup before that year. Via Sistina has run like 90% of her races over 2000m and ran last her only attempt at further. She will either be in the Champion Stakes or spelling after the Cox Plate to get read for the QE in the Autumn

 

[Lunchtime]

Current Rankings

1. Via Sistina
2. Jan Brueghel
3. Point King
4. Absurde
5. Warp Speed
6. Land Legend
7. Buckaroo

What races have we got left over the next 4 weeks:

• Herbert Power
• Caufield Cup
• Geelong Cup
• MV Cup
• Cox Plate
• the time honoured Bendigo Cup

Herbert Power Stakes can be a good guide to the Melbourne Cup sometimes.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Obviously a quality horse but my biggest knock on him is that fact he lacks tactical speed and doesn't have a fast change up of gears which is far from ideal for Australian racing.

All three races since his debut he has been a short favourite in small fields and pumped along from a long way out and just out toughing them by a neck in all three races.

54kg is a lot for a 3yo as well. There were plenty on here that thought DL was put in take out in his year despite the weight

I take your points but I cannot ignore the win over 2000 metres running over second quicker than Bluestocking on the same day. That does not mean he beats her on the day but he would have been right in the race. It also suggests if he can win a good race in good time over 2,000 metres he will have the tactical speed for the cup.

A favourable comparison with the Arc winner is A+ form for the cup. The other thought is I know is Aiden O'Brien has a burning desire to win the cup and this is the horse he is has selected to do it.

 

[cruskits]

They're pretty much the same as Winx too and pretty standard for a Cox Plate prep. VE had already won two G1s over 2400m and run in a Melbourne Cup before that year. Via Sistina has run like 90% of her races over 2000m and ran last her only attempt at further. She will either be in the Champion Stakes or spelling after the Cox Plate to get read for the QE in the Autumn

Yeah Champion Stakes makes sense. She looked quite at home on the Flemington track being a bigger longer striding horse. Will be interesting to see how she gets around MV.

 

[cruskits]

The other think I know is Aiden O'Brien has a burning desire to win the cup and this is the horse he is has selected to do it.

Yes, this sits high on my checklist. Trainers and jockeys that haven’ won one before. It makes sense that they naturally go that little bit extra trying to win one. Imagine his son each Christmas mentioning that he has won the MC every time the discussion comes up. Classic stuff

 

[Lunchtime]

• Herbert Power

One for the trifectas and quartets for the Cup - since 1980: 19 out of the past 43 years (including 7 out of the last 10 years) a Herbert Power runner has run top 4 in the Melbourne Cup:

1980: BELDALE BALL
2nd in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

1981: JUST A DASH
7th in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

1985: FIL DE ROI
1st in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

1986: AT TALAQ
4th in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

1990: MR BROOKER
7th in Herbert Power
3rd in Melbourne Cup

1992: MR EUROSTAR
7th in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

1996: SKYBEAU
3rd in Herbert Power
3rd in Melbourne Cup

1999: ROGAN JOSH
1st in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

2000: YIPPYIO
4th in Herbert Power
2nd in the Melbourne Cup

2004: ZAZZMAN
3rd in Herbert Power
3rd in Melbourne Cup

2005: LEICA FALCON
1st in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

2009: SHOCKING
2nd in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

2013: SIMENON
3rd in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

2014: PROTECTIONIST
4th in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

2015: PRINCE OF PENZANCE
8th in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

2018: PRINCE OF ARRAN
3rd in Herbert Power
3rd in Melbourne Cup

2019: PRINCE OF ARRAN
2nd in Herbert Power
2nd in Melbourne Cup

2020: THE CHOSEN ONE
7th in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

2022: EMISSARY
8th in Herbert Power
2nd in Melbourne Cup

 

[Lunchtime]

• Herbert Power

Three things about the Herbert Power, in particular the first two dot points are interesting:

1. The Herbert Power winner earns a free ticket into the Caulfield Cup and is guaranteed a start in the race.

2. The Herbert Power winner can not be given a weight penalty for the Caulfield Cup.

3. The winner of the Herbert Power may be liable for a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup if deemed necessary by the handicapper David Hegan.

 

[Jugada]

I take your points but I cannot ignore the win over 2000 metres running over second quicker than Bluestocking on the same day. That does not mean he beats her on the day but he would have been right in the race. It also suggests if he can win a good race in good time over 2,000 metres he will have the tactical speed for the cup.

A favourable comparison with the Arc winner is A+ form for the cup. The other thought is I know is Aiden O'Brien has a burning desire to win the cup and this is the horse he is has selected to do it.

Fair enough. Personally put little stock in overall times especially from a race in June on a bog track where horses could have progressed a lot in that time and there was a significant weight difference on the day.

Following the same logic Trustyourinstinct would have run faster time than Bluestocking on that day too and he carried 5.5kg more than JB but I wouldnt be calling it Arc form.

A trainer being 0 for 50 with brining out horses not exactly a huge positive for me either with his selection criteria

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Fair enough. Personally put little stock in overall times especially from a race in June on a bog track where horses could have progressed a lot in that time and there was a significant weight difference on the day.

Following the same logic Trustyourinstinct would have run faster time than Bluestocking on that day too and he carried 5.5kg more than JB but I wouldnt be calling it Arc form.

A trainer being 0 for 50 with brining out horses not exactly a huge positive for me either with his selection criteria

I would say there is no way you would be backing JB. I know it stupid odds but for a bit fun I have taken 8 $20 multis

CC Eliyass Buckeroo
CP Prognosis
Derby Henlien, Scary, Red Ace, Keenland
MC JB

Best result $72,000

I know it is dumb punting but it is my once a year tattslotto spend.

 

[FFB1]

From a MC perspective George leaves me with just Birdman. May be clutching at straws but Valiant King’s run in the Turnbull was alright after missing work.

 

[Lunchtime]

Historic Cup winner passes

Only Japanese winner of Melbourne Cup, Delta Blues, passes away at age 24

www.racing.com

 

[Sockeye]

Cup seems wide open at this stage.
Post Impressionist the interesting runner in the Herbert. 100/1 on SB for Cup.

 

[lightred]

If Buckaroo runs well in the CC, surely they run him in the MC? He would have to be a chance despite everyone thinking he wont stay 3200. thoughts?

I am struggling to find anything else in the MC field that I like. Maybe Land Legend

 

[Jugada]

If Buckaroo runs well in the CC, surely they run him in the MC? He would have to be a chance despite everyone thinking he wont stay 3200. thoughts?

I am struggling to find anything else in the MC field that I like. Maybe Land Legend

I would be very surprised if he could run that sort of trip. He is like a poor man's Zaaki or better version of Numerian to me with that 2200m range really seeing him out.

If he looked strong in the CC I guess maybe but it's hard to imagine that will be the case right now so couldn't back him

 

[lightred]

Jugada - I agree that he doesnt seem like a 3200 type. Who do you have as your top 3 at the moment?

The betfair market is interesting. JB & Vauban the only ones in single digits & everything else is $15+

 

[lightred]

I am really interested to hear what people think of Vauban this year?

Form looks better coming into the race this year.
Preparation looks better - will be around 50 days into the MC vs 90+ days last year
The lack of quality competition in this years race (in my opinion)

In saying that, he failed badly last year so would be a huge turnaround

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I am really interested to hear what people think of Vauban this year?

Form looks better coming into the race this year.
Preparation looks better - will be around 50 days into the MC vs 90+ days last year
The lack of quality competition in this years race (in my opinion)

In saying that, he failed badly last year so would be a huge turnaround

I have him in my top 4

 

[Jugada]

I am really interested to hear what people think of Vauban this year?

Form looks better coming into the race this year.
Preparation looks better - will be around 50 days into the MC vs 90+ days last year
The lack of quality competition in this years race (in my opinion)

In saying that, he failed badly last year so would be a huge turnaround

Personally don't think he is going any better than last year and if we get a firm track id almost put a line through him so impossible to back him this far out

 

[Jugada]

Jugada - I agree that he doesnt seem like a 3200 type. Who do you have as your top 3 at the moment?

The betfair market is interesting. JB & Vauban the only ones in single digits & everything else is $15+

Will go through properly post Saturday but tentatively at the moment something like

Warp Speed
Jan Brueghel
Absurde

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Will go through properly post Saturday but tentatively at the moment something like

Warp Speed
Jan Brueghel
Absurde

Same and then Vauban at 4

 

[Jugada]

Same and then Vauban at 4

If nothing goes big on Saturday decent chance ill be the same. Dire when a horse I couldn't touch in the market is coming in at 4

 

[Viva la Mattner]

If nothing goes big on Saturday decent chance ill be the same. Dire when a horse I couldn't touch in the market is coming in at 4

Sitting pretty from an antepost perspective
JB @ 80’s and Absurde @ 40’s
Legit nothing else worth touching
Prob just do a trifecta with those 4 winning

 

[lightred]

Keen to see how warp speed runs in the CC

Absurde ran well last year but just idled over the last 200m

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Keen to see how warp speed runs in the CC

Absurde ran well last year but just idled over the last 200m

Was 6 wide from the 600m mark
Huge effort to run aswel as it did

 

[lightred]

Did he go into last year's cup off the back of hurdle runs only?

I see this year his last start was a normal race where he's run well and won

Paris would be potting this thing for sure lol
Will he be posting his pick this year