2024 Ladder Predictions

[RonnieRaven]

I didn't realize Mitch Lewis played for Freo

Are you talking about 25yr old Lewis who has never had a 40 goal season and kicked 47 goals in his first 5 years in the system??
Amiss had a better year goal wise in his second year than Lewis has had in his 7 seasons at hawks.

 

[rye]

very rarely does a young team that brings in no A grade talent in the offseason make a significant jump in ladder position purely off natural progression of their kids

freo made finals in 2022 so they could point to that, but since then have lost lobb, acres, schultz and logue who were significant contributors that year

schultz is a big loss on this year as one of only a handful of quality proven forwards on freos list

i dont see them really improving much on their 2023 if im being honest.

 

[jakson68]

Are you talking about 25yr old Lewis who has never had a 40 goal season and kicked 47 goals in his first 5 years in the system??
Amiss had a better year goal wise in his second year than Lewis has had in his 7 seasons at hawks.

You do realize I was taking the piss yeah??
I thought the symbol may have been a give away.

The kid has talent, no doubt but lets see how he goes in more than just one season.

Because comments like Mags98 is making, stating that he is the best forward since Jezza, well that is just setting the kid up for failure.

 

[RonnieRaven]

very rarely does a young team that brings in no A grade talent in the offseason make a significant jump in ladder position purely off natural progression of their kids

freo made finals in 2022 so they could point to that, but since then have lost lobb, acres, schultz and logue who were significant contributors that year

schultz is a big loss on this year as one of only a handful of quality proven forwards on freos list

i dont see them really improving much on their 2023 if im being honest.

We still had 10 wins we’ve had 2 less wins then port over the last two seasons.
If Darcy didn’t get injured this year we would of been jostling for finals
Pearce is not going to repeat his performance in the first 10 games of 2023.
I’m not even having to reach and talk about players like JOM Tabs Fyfe

 

[Mags98]

You do realize I was taking the piss yeah??
I thought the symbol may have been a give away.

The kid has talent, no doubt but lets see how he goes in more than just one season.

Because comments like Mags98 is making, stating that he is the best forward since Jezza, well that is just setting the kid up for failure.

its a statistical fact though not just a comment

 

[Footy Smarts]

teams mostly likely to move into top 8

1. Adelaide
2. Gold cost
3. Fremantle
4. Bulldogs - (a real boom or bust season for them arguably the most likely to move back into the top 4, but i think they implode.)
5. Geelong

Feel like Adelaide is being overrated.

They an absolute dream run with injuries which made them look better than they were.

Players playing 21+ games:

Adelaide - 16
Richmond - 10
Geelong - 9
Bulldogs - 10
Fremantle - 11
Essendon - 11

With a similar injury run they likely would've finished below all of those teams. It looks like they've got the most difficult draw of those teams too.

 

[Mags98]

Feel like Adelaide is being overrated.

They an absolute dream run with injuries which made them look better than they were.

Players playing 21+ games:

Adelaide - 16
Richmond - 10
Geelong - 9
Bulldogs - 10
Fremantle - 11
Essendon - 11

With a similar injury run they likely would've finished below all of those teams. It looks like they've got the most difficult draw of those teams too.

they play an attractive brand of footy and really took it to most of the better teams last year, if they can get some of their young blokes (soligo, rachelle etc) running through the middle with more impact that will go a long way to getting them into finals, but they were pretty reliant on tex last year.

their backline was solid but is very young so consistency can be a problem, i still expect them to be there abouts next year

 

[Caligo]

You must be a blast come Anzac Day, or Remembrance Day.
I guess because I wasn't alive during WW1 or WW2, they didn't matter, only the Gulf war matters.

Gold Trip won last years Melbourne Cup but if you were not alive in the early 2000s to witness the greatness of Makybe Diva, then that didn't matter.
Apparently Phar Lap supposedly went ok also but as we didn't witness it, it wasn't meaningful.

There is a thing called history and as a Collingwood Member, I am very proud of ours.

To say that only the success you witness your club have is all that matters, is not only selfish and entitled, but also disrespectful to all past players that have put on the jumper and took the field.

Anzac day means something to me because of the stories my grandparents told me, but honestly, it doesn't have the same impact as some of the battles in Iraq and Afghanistan that my cousins fought in, or even my uncle in vietnam. The extent of the proximity does matter, to me anyway.

I had something like 10 relatives in ww1, one of my great grand uncles was even killed after armistice, but it doesn't have the same impact because I never heard those stories from anyone who was there.

If I cared about horses makybe diva (sp?) would mean a lot more to me than phar lap, in the same way that Steve Waugh matters more to me than Bradman, even though nobody would deny who has the higher average.

Nice job tossing around language about respect though. Definitely strengthens your argument in a transparent attempt at emotional blackmail. All class.

 

[Fadge]

Anzac day means something to me because of the stories my grandparents told me, but honestly, it doesn't have the same impact as some of the battles in Iraq and Afghanistan that my cousins fought in, or even my uncle in vietnam. The extent of the proximity does matter, to me anyway.

I had something like 10 relatives in ww1, one of my great grand uncles was even killed after armistice, but it doesn't have the same impact because I never heard those stories from anyone who was there.

If I cared about horses makybe diva (sp?) would mean a lot more to me than phar lap, in the same way that Steve Waugh matters more to me than Bradman, even though nobody would deny who has the higher average.

Nice job tossing around language about respect though. Definitely strengthens your argument in a transparent attempt at emotional blackmail. All class.

OK, so maybe it's time you realised you're only one individual in a world of approximately 8 billion people, and many of those 8 billion people view the world from a different lens to yours...

 

[Caligo]

OK, so maybe it's time you realised you're only one individual in a world of approximately 8 billion people, and many of those 8 billion people view the world from a different lens to yours...

I did say that there are many points of view in my original post, and again in my clarification post. But sure, go off. That is some fabulous insight right there. MR would call it Fadge level insight!

 

[RonnieRaven]

Feel like Adelaide is being overrated.

They an absolute dream run with injuries which made them look better than they were.

Players playing 21+ games:

Adelaide - 16
Richmond - 10
Geelong - 9
Bulldogs - 10
Fremantle - 11
Essendon - 11

With a similar injury run they likely would've finished below all of those teams. It looks like they've got the most difficult draw of those teams too.

I agree 22 games out of Tex Sloan smith laird.
Tex had his best season ever.
They can only improve if the above happens again coupled with the improvement from the youth

 

[Fadge]

I did say that there are many points of view in my original post, and again in my clarification post. But sure, go off. That is some fabulous insight right there. MR would call it Fadge level insight!

Actually, your original post suggested there were 'so many options' around where to cut off the historical years.

But your primary view was that history didn't matter.

Which as another poster commented, is entitled and self-centred.

 

[Danw0w]

So they had a good record for half a season in 2023, in the same way as they had a good record for half a season in 2022?

They are a mentally and physically fragile football club... not a good combination, and not a combination that enables a club to genuinely contend for a premiership.

Mentally fragile clubs don't get within 3 goals of Brisbane at the gabba in a prelim.

 

[Danw0w]

Feel like Adelaide is being overrated.

They an absolute dream run with injuries which made them look better than they were.

Players playing 21+ games:

Adelaide - 16
Richmond - 10
Geelong - 9
Bulldogs - 10
Fremantle - 11
Essendon - 11

With a similar injury run they likely would've finished below all of those teams. It looks like they've got the most difficult draw of those teams too.

I also feel like they played their very best footy this year and still didn't make the 8. Might be a false dawn for the Crows.

 

[Fadge]

Mentally fragile clubs don't get within 3 goals of Brisbane at the gabba in a prelim.

Pfft.

They got off to a flyer, Brisbane kicked 71 of the next 84 points, before a couple of late goals put some respectability back into the scoreboard for Carlton.

You can tip them to have a good season in 2024, but I won't be.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I agree 22 games out of Tex Sloan smith laird.
Tex had his best season ever.
They can only improve if the above happens again coupled with the improvement from the youth

We’ll be a better side if Sloane doesn’t get 22 games next year

I do agree that we’ll need someone to pick up the slack of Tex’s eventual decline, but Fog and particularly Thilthorpe have more growth in them. We just need to hope our best youth continues on an solid upward trajectory

 

[Danw0w]

Pfft.

They got off to a flyer, Brisbane kicked 71 of the next 84 points, before a couple of late goals put some respectability back into the scoreboard for Carlton.

You can tip them to have a good season in 2024, but I won't be.

What? Those goals don't count because they were the first few and last few of the game?

 

[Fadge]

What? Those goals don't count because they were the first few and last few of the game?

There is more to assessing a game than stating a margin and drawing a conclusion.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

There is more to assessing a game than stating a margin and drawing a conclusion.

Such as?

 

[Danw0w]

There is more to assessing a game than stating a margin and drawing a conclusion.

Just sounds like mental gymnastics to discredit Carlton.

 

[Caligo]

Actually, your original post suggested there were 'so many options' around where to cut off the historical years.

But your primary view was that history didn't matter.

Which as another poster commented, is entitled and self-centred.

The more I think about it, the more I think I don't actually agree with my last post, or at least that it doesn't actually encapsulate my belief.

Ww1 or the boer war might mean less because I didn't have a relative who was there to tell me about it, but those events still have a deep meaning beyond my proximity because they are real. They were meaningful and important in a way that sport simply isn't. That is my actual argument. What gives sport its meaning (to me anyhow) is the personal relationships and direct joy. Actual meaningful things like wars or Australia's federation or when a certain relative of mine back in the 1300s got knighted for service to England are quite simply not the same as trivial entertainment.

Again, because you seem to require this, these are my personal opinions and I don't expect you to share them. Boggling as it may be that you need that explained to you in clear and precise terms.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Just sounds like mental gymnastics to discredit Carlton.

That's because he knows the Pies would have gone down like a bag of dirt if they had to play Brisbane in Brisbane rather than at the G.

Quite remarkable that we even got close given it's by far the hardest road trip in modern footy.

 

[hawkman]

Mentally fragile clubs don't get within 3 goals of Brisbane at the gabba in a prelim.

They were 5 goals up and still found themselves 5 goals down in the last quarter. Just because they made a prelim doesn't mean they aren't still mentally fragile. Collingwood were until McRae came along and they managed to make a GF and prelim in 18 and 19. Hawthorn were also in 11 and 12 and they just lost a prelim and GF

 

[Fadge]

That's because he knows the Pies would have gone down like a bag of dirt if they had to play Brisbane in Brisbane rather than at the G.

Quite remarkable that we even got close given it's by far the hardest road trip in modern footy.

For probably the 157th time in this thread alone, win enough games during the home and away season and you don't have to play Brisbane, or any other team for that matter, interstate.

In the same way that Collingwood won enough games in 2023.

 

[Fadge]

They were 5 goals and still found themselves 5 goals down in the last quarter. Just because they made a prelim doesn't mean they aren't still mentally fragile. Collingwood were until McRae came along and they managed to make a GF and prelim in 18 and 19. Hawthorn were also in 11 and 12 and they just lost a prelim and GF

Perfectly stated.

Pies kicked the first 5 goals of the 2018 Grand Final, and were completely outplayed for the rest of the match. The winning margin for West Coast should have been greater than it was.

Fast forward a season, and the Pies play an undermanned GWS on the MCG in a Preliminary Final. The margin blew out and we managed to work our way back into the game, but a mentally strong team would have accounted for that GWS side comfortably that night.