2024 Ladder Predictions

[Mr MysteryGuest]

teams mostly likely to move into top 8

1. Adelaide
2. Gold cost
3. Fremantle
4. Bulldogs - (a real boom or bust season for them arguably the most likely to move back into the top 4, but i think they implode.)
5. Geelong

teams most likely to fall out of the top 8

1. St kilda
2. Sydney
3. Melbourne
4. Carlton
5. Port

 

[Arr0w]

Do Carlton supporters really think they hit a nerve when they pull out this stat? Really?

Did Carlton supporters enjoy the ride their team gave them this year? Their best season in more than two decades?

Collingwood supporters have been given an even better ride on 43 separate occasions. That's a lot of games of football won. A lot of big finals won. A lot of joy given to, and excitement experienced by, their supporters.

Wowee.

But 27 losing GFs, that's really poor

But, sure this is a 2024 ladder prediction.

Pick Carlton to finish 11th again fadge?

 

[Fadge]

But 27 losing GFs, that's really poor

And has doubled down.

Not surprising, but Wowee!

 

[JustaBattler]

When was the last time a flag winner didn't make finals in the following year?

Adelaide look to have the team and list to make finals - wouldn't be surprised if they knocked someone out to take their place. Hawthorn are probably a year maybe two away from putting their hat in the ring- but their players are developing nicely. Richmond won't be easy beats and neither will Suns or Freo.

Not convinced that Port /GWS / Sydney have much upside in them but what they have is pretty good. Saints didn't fluke making finals - and I doubt that Geelong are likely to miss again given home ground and best22.

Brisbane are the standout favourites in my book to finish top of the ladder- absolutely stacked list and enjoy a fantastic home-ground advantage.

 

[Arr0w]

And has doubled down.

Not surprising, but Wowee!

2024 thread fadge, stay on track, 11th?

 

[Fadge]

When was the last time a flag winner didn't make finals in the following year?

I think you'll find that would be the 2022 premiers.

And before that, the 2020 premiers.

But extremely good question...

 

[Wolfgang West]

I said 'median over the last 22 years'. If Collingwood have played in 11 Preliminary Finals in that time, the math really isn't that hard to work out.

Oh. So we're reverting to subsets of time now are we?

Nah, I'd rather stick to the present day and/or all of history. I don't subscribe to subsets.

Again, I'm referring to WORLDWIDE.

And there are 'supporters', 'fans', and those when prompted say 'I live in Sydney, so I guess it's them...'

Worldwide ? Yep I can see a bloke wearing a Collingwood Hard Yakka Training Jumper Bombing Long Drop Punts To a Mate on The Gaza Strip Right Now.

 

[jakson68]

teams mostly likely to move into top 8

1. Adelaide
2. Gold cost
3. Fremantle
4. Bulldogs - (a real boom or bust season for them arguably the most likely to move back into the top 4, but i think they implode.)
5. Geelong

teams most likely to fall out of the top 8

1. St kilda
2. Sydney
3. Melbourne
4. Carlton
5. Port

I really can't see Freo improving at all, let alone getting into finals.
As for Carlton, now that they have a taste, the hunger will be there and cannot see them missing.

 

[FootyLad0]

Is their median really top 4 though? That is astonishing.

Are Collingwood the best club in your lifetime? Which club has won the most VFL AFL flags since you were born? Winning a whole bunch of dodgy flags where you lost the GF but still somehow got the premiership are a bit of a joke.

I took a quick look and it didn't look like their median really was top 4, but I didn't tally it up. Is it true?

Also I am pretty sure the Swans actually have the largest supporter base. Maybe take that one off your list of silliness.

I always laugh when they quote Premierships from when players wore trousers and black lace up formal shoes as "boots"

No one gives a flying **** about Premierships before the AFL era.
If it isn't won during the National competition it means diddly squat.

 

[RonnieRaven]

I really can't see Freo improving at all, let alone getting into finals.
As for Carlton, now that they have a taste, the hunger will be there and cannot see them missing.

Your not looking hard enough
Freo have got 2 rising stars and another 7 rising star noms over the last 3 years.
It’s funny how some see improvement with some clubs because of their talented youth but see the club with the most not to improvement.
We have the best emerging key forward to be drafted in the last 10 years.
Our midfield are 25 and under
Darcy 25 bnf winner
Brayshaw 24 AA bnf MVP
Serong 22 AA bnf HUN player of the year.
Young 22 who will break out in 24 and compete our midfield.

Defence
Chapman 21 rising nom injured last year
Walker 21 rising nom interrupted 23

Wing
Odriscoll 21 rising nom interrupted 23

Fwd
Amiss 20 rising nom kicked 40+ in 23
Jackson 22 rising star winner AA squad 23
Sturt 22 rising nom interrupted 23

It’s unfathomable to think there’s not improvement there.

 

[Caligo]

I always laugh when they quote Premierships from when players wore trousers and black lace up formal shoes as "boots"

No one gives a flying * about Premierships before the AFL era.
If it isn't won during the National competition it means diddly squat.

The trouble with that view is that it includes 1990 but doesn't include 1989 when the two leagues had the same teams, same rules and same financial structures. Literally the only difference is the name.

I agree with you that there is a point when the game becomes meaningful, but it isn't clear where that point is, and everyone would have a different view. I think there are quite a few reasonable choices, but two big ones stand out for me. When the Argus system ended you could no longer lose the grand final but still win the flag. That is a good option and is standard for everyone. The other that I often think about is just flags in your life time, which obviously changes depending on how old you are.

There are so many other alternatives like the removal of zones and introduction of the draft, the full professionalisation of the game (which only happened VERY recently considering I know a Swans player who had a second job in 2016) or even the introduction of all the teams.

So many options.

 

[Mr Meow]

Your not looking hard enough
Freo have got 2 rising stars and another 7 rising star noms over the last 3 years.
It’s funny how some see improvement with some clubs because of their talented youth but see the club with the most not to improvement.
We have the best emerging key forward to be drafted in the last 10 years.
Our midfield are 25 and under
Darcy 25 bnf winner
Brayshaw 24 AA bnf MVP
Serong 22 AA bnf HUN player of the year.
Young 22 who will break out in 24 and compete our midfield.

Defence
Chapman 21 rising nom injured last year
Walker 21 rising nom interrupted 23

Wing
Odriscoll 21 rising nom interrupted 23

Fwd
Amiss 20 rising nom kicked 40+ in 23
Jackson 22 rising star winner AA squad 23
Sturt 22 rising nom interrupted 23

It’s unfathomable to think there’s not improvement there.

I basically like Freo's list.

I didn't mark them as a side to rise on my ladder really through lack of imagination, but they would be an obvious candidate to jump back into the 8 if they hit form.

 

[Caligo]

I basically like Freo's list.

I didn't mark them as a side to rise on my ladder really through lack of imagination, but they would be an obvious candidate to jump back into the 8 if they hit form.

Especially since they played finals so recently with the same young list. I feel like there is so much scope for improvement with their mids and Amiss (although I think they will really miss shultz).

 

[Danger in Texas]

Your not looking hard enough
Freo have got 2 rising stars and another 7 rising star noms over the last 3 years.
It’s funny how some see improvement with some clubs because of their talented youth but see the club with the most not to improvement.
We have the best emerging key forward to be drafted in the last 10 years.
Our midfield are 25 and under
Darcy 25 bnf winner
Brayshaw 24 AA bnf MVP
Serong 22 AA bnf HUN player of the year.
Young 22 who will break out in 24 and compete our midfield.

Defence
Chapman 21 rising nom injured last year
Walker 21 rising nom interrupted 23

Wing
Odriscoll 21 rising nom interrupted 23

Fwd
Amiss 20 rising nom kicked 40+ in 23
Jackson 22 rising star winner AA squad 23
Sturt 22 rising nom interrupted 23

It’s unfathomable to think there’s not improvement there.

I see the improvement that the Dockers could show next year coming mainly from Young's midfield move, Amiss, Chapman, Johnson, and O'Driscoll. The only surefire improvement I reckon is the Young move and Chapman (given the amount of time he missed in '23). Does Amiss plateau for a year or so before really breaking out? Do Johnson and O'Driscoll take the next step in '24, or a year or two later than that? The loss of Schultz has to count for something, too

Don't get me wrong, I think Freo has a list that can make a real push from '25 or '26, I just don't believe finals are a sure thing next year

 

[Fadge]

The trouble with that view is that it includes 1990 but doesn't include 1989 when the two leagues had the same teams, same rules and same financial structures. Literally the only difference is the name.

I agree with you that there is a point when the game becomes meaningful, but it isn't clear where that point is, and everyone would have a different view. I think there are quite a few reasonable choices, but two big ones stand out for me. When the Argus system ended you could no longer lose the grand final but still win the flag. That is a good option and is standard for everyone. The other that I often think about is just flags in your life time, which obviously changes depending on how old you are.

There are so many other alternatives like the removal of zones and introduction of the draft, the full professionalisation of the game (which only happened VERY recently considering I know a Swans player who had a second job in 2016) or even the introduction of all the teams.

So many options.

What a load of codswallop.

Teams can only play by the rules of the day.

In 50 years, are we going to be disregarding any premiership winner who lost their Qualifying Final, because by 2070 all finals are knock-out matches?

As for 'flags in your lifetime'. Just Wowee.

 

[FootyLad0]

Really?

We'd better tell the AFL to update their historical records in that case...

They wouldn't want to upset their lovechild who won Premierships who challenged after the fact of LOSING them.

Ridiculous....

 

[Caligo]

What a load of codswallop.

Teams can only play by the rules of the day.

In 50 years, are we going to be disregarding any premiership winner who lost their Qualifying Final, because by 2070 all finals are knock-out matches?

As for 'flags in your lifetime'. Just Wowee.

Are you saying flags you weren't alive for are just as meaningful to you?

Especially the ones you can't even watch any kind of footage of?

The flags that really matter to me are the ones I got to watch live, either on TV or in person, and that I was old enough to remember. 88 and 89 I can remember clearly, 86 is hazy, but i do remember the party afterwards, and I can't remember 83 at all because I was a literal baby.

The point of the flags isn't so much that the team won, but rather the experiences you get to have with family and loved ones. You don't get those experiences from flags in 1910.

And yes, I think in 2140 if they have had almost a century of not allowing teams to win the flag if they lose a final then fans will look pretty askance at a team who lost a final but still won the flag due to the rules of the time. That sounds exactly like how people will feel. The good news is we will all be long dead and won't have to worry about it.

Anyhow, as I said, there are lots of ways of assigning value. Those are just the two (lifetime and argus) that speak the most to me.

 

[jakson68]

Your not looking hard enough
Freo have got 2 rising stars and another 7 rising star noms over the last 3 years.
It’s funny how some see improvement with some clubs because of their talented youth but see the club with the most not to improvement.
We have the best emerging key forward to be drafted in the last 10 years.
Our midfield are 25 and under
Darcy 25 bnf winner
Brayshaw 24 AA bnf MVP
Serong 22 AA bnf HUN player of the year.
Young 22 who will break out in 24 and compete our midfield.

Defence
Chapman 21 rising nom injured last year
Walker 21 rising nom interrupted 23

Wing
Odriscoll 21 rising nom interrupted 23

Fwd
Amiss 20 rising nom kicked 40+ in 23
Jackson 22 rising star winner AA squad 23
Sturt 22 rising nom interrupted 23

It’s unfathomable to think there’s not improvement there.

I didn't realize Mitch Lewis played for Freo

 

[Fadge]

Are you saying flags you weren't alive for are just as meaningful to you?

Especially the ones you can't even watch any kind of footage of?

The flags that really matter to me are the ones I got to watch live, either on TV or in person, and that I was old enough to remember. 88 and 89 I can remember clearly, 86 is hazy, but i do remember the party afterwards, and I can't remember 83 at all because I was a literal baby.

The point of the flags isn't so much that the team won, but rather the experiences you get to have with family and loved ones. You don't get those experiences from flags in 1910.

And yes, I think in 2140 if they have had almost a century of not allowing teams to win the flag if they lose a final then fans will look pretty askance at a team who lost a final but still won the flag due to the rules of the time. That sounds exactly like how people will feel. The good news is we will all be long dead and won't have to worry about it.

Anyhow, as I said, there are lots of ways of assigning value. Those are just the two (lifetime and argus) that speak the most to me.

I respect the history of my football club and am not self-centred enough to believe that the 1990, 2010 or 2023 premierships are more important than any others that occurred before my time simply because I wasn't alive to see them...

 

[Fadge]

And yes, I think in 2140 if they have had almost a century of not allowing teams to win the flag if they lose a final then fans will look pretty askance at a team who lost a final but still won the flag due to the rules of the time. That sounds exactly like how people will feel. The good news is we will all be long dead and won't have to worry about it.

Or there are those of us who are balanced and rational and appreciate the teams were only playing under the rules of the day, and consider every historical premiership equally meritorious.

 

[Mags98]

I didn't realize Mitch Lewis played for Freo

mitch lewis is 25 years old and amiss has already kicked more goals in a season than he ever has, and hes only played 25 games

 

[jakson68]

Are you saying flags you weren't alive for are just as meaningful to you?

Especially the ones you can't even watch any kind of footage of?

The flags that really matter to me are the ones I got to watch live, either on TV or in person, and that I was old enough to remember. 88 and 89 I can remember clearly, 86 is hazy, but i do remember the party afterwards, and I can't remember 83 at all because I was a literal baby.

The point of the flags isn't so much that the team won, but rather the experiences you get to have with family and loved ones. You don't get those experiences from flags in 1910.

And yes, I think in 2140 if they have had almost a century of not allowing teams to win the flag if they lose a final then fans will look pretty askance at a team who lost a final but still won the flag due to the rules of the time. That sounds exactly like how people will feel. The good news is we will all be long dead and won't have to worry about it.

Anyhow, as I said, there are lots of ways of assigning value. Those are just the two (lifetime and argus) that speak the most to me.

You must be a blast come Anzac Day, or Remembrance Day.
I guess because I wasn't alive during WW1 or WW2, they didn't matter, only the Gulf war matters.

Gold Trip won last years Melbourne Cup but if you were not alive in the early 2000s to witness the greatness of Makybe Diva, then that didn't matter.
Apparently Phar Lap supposedly went ok also but as we didn't witness it, it wasn't meaningful.

There is a thing called history and as a Collingwood Member, I am very proud of ours.

To say that only the success you witness your club have is all that matters, is not only selfish and entitled, but also disrespectful to all past players that have put on the jumper and took the field.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I really can't see Freo improving at all, let alone getting into finals.
As for Carlton, now that they have a taste, the hunger will be there and cannot see them missing.

I tried to have at least 5 on both lists.

Freo are a young team with room for growth

 

[jakson68]

mitch lewis is 25 years old and amiss has already kicked more goals in a season than he ever has, and hes only played 25 games

Ok then I will give you Nick Larkey.
71 goals playing for North is a pretty good return.

Also before you state his age of 25, the comment was that Amiss is the best in the last 10 years.
Larkey wasn't drafted as a 14yo.

Amiss is a talent but he could start now and not get 70 goals next year.

 

[Mags98]

Ok then I will give you Nick Larkey.
71 goals playing for North is a pretty good return.

Also before you state his age of 25, the comment was that Amiss is the best in the last 10 years.
Larkey wasn't drafted as a 14yo.

Amiss is a talent but he could start now and not get 70 goals next year.

Amiss has been the best performing Key Forward since Jezza, kicking 70 goals at 25 has no relevance