Training 2024 Pre-season training

[St 07]

You are one of my favourite posters, Mofra, but I’m struggling with your comment about Baker. He is more your stop, prop and butcher the ball type. The less of Baker in our Best 23 this season, the better we will be.

Complete bs. I'd say his disposal under pressure can improve but he isn't a crab on the ball at all. He is quality to have on the fringes of the team.

 

[stefoid]

There is none. That’s my point.

It’s like claiming we have lower quality hit outs to advantage. The hitout to advantage is the effective action. Much like a clearance.

If we wanted to nit pick, you could say a rushed kick clearance isn’t the same quality like finding a target by foot or by hand is. But the measurement of an effective stoppage situation is the clearance, so even a rushed kick gaining territory is considered effective.

If the question was asked to all 18 coaches, what they considered the most effective clearance, it would be one that finds a teammate. In the last 5-10 years, that’s something our mids have been really good at. Even if it is via a lateral or backwards handball.

I wouldnt say thats nitpicking at all. not all disposals are equal - damaging players are called that because they regularly take the best option and execute it correctly. That includes clearance disposals.

Im not suggesting players suddenly manufacture damaging clearances out of thin air, its a whole team effort around setup and personell to give the clearance players more and better options than the 'easy' handball out the back to a stationary player, or even worse, the throw it on the boot and pray.

 

[MrChristo]

Where’s the data for our low quality clearances? Propper data that is, not the BF eye test.

Agree on our I50’s. Our ratio has been rubbish lately. Also to do with goal kicking accuracy.

I haven't got them on me but will find out in the next day or 2...
...but I suspect scores from clearances as a % of overall clearance wins is a decent start. (Ageee 100% that other factors are involved, though).

If we could get an I50 as a % of clearance wins?... (I don't know if that's a thing? )

 

[Charlie Bucket]

I haven't got them on me but will find out in the next day or 2...
...but I suspect scores from clearances as a % of overall clearance wins is a decent start. (Ageee 100% that other factors are involved, though).

If we could get an I50 as a % of clearance wins?... (I don't know if that's a thing? )

Average scores from stoppage per game is as close as you’ll get. That stats out there somewhere.

Again though, there’s multiple other things to factor in between that first disposal out of the stoppage and the ball leaving the forwards boot. It’s not going to be an accurate measurement though so it’s almost irrelevant.

 

[doggies ftw]

No one looks at or cares about DE% because it’s clear it’s a flawed stat, not all effective disposals are equal, basic clearance numbers are no different really. I think when people are talking about our “poor clearances” they’re talking about more than just the first possession, even if that technically is the ‘clearance’. Overall from watching the game it doesn’t feel like our clearance game has been damaging for quite some time, even if the raw clearance numbers say otherwise.

I’m sure CD would keep a heap of stats around this that were not privy too but basically you would want to look at your total clearance numbers vs effective disposal clearance, ball retention rate from clearance, inside 50 rate from clearance, scoring chains launched from clearances, meters gained from clearance etc, CD & the clubs would have this stuff I’d imagine. Maybe our man Oliver G can advise?

Put them altogether and you would get a somewhat decent overview of your actual effectiveness of clearances, compared to just the raw total. Obviously it’s not perfect, just like goal assists only go in the stat sheet if the forward doesn’t butcher an easy finish etc - they’re just stats at the end of the day and will never tell the story like the good old eye test

 

[ScragCity]

No one looks at or cares about DE% because it’s clear it’s a flawed stat, not all effective disposals are equal, basic clearance numbers are no different really. I think when people are talking about our “poor clearances” they’re talking about more than just the first possession, even if that technically is the ‘clearance’. Overall from watching the game it doesn’t feel like our clearance game has been damaging for quite some time, even if the raw clearance numbers say otherwise.

I’m sure CD would keep a heap of stats around this that were not privy too but basically you would want to look at your total clearance numbers vs effective disposal clearance, ball retention rate from clearance, inside 50 rate from clearance, scoring chains launched from clearances, meters gained from clearance etc, CD & the clubs would have this stuff I’d imagine. Maybe our man Oliver G can advise?

Put them altogether and you would get a somewhat decent overview of your actual effectiveness of clearances, compared to just the raw total. Obviously it’s not perfect, just like goal assists only go in the stat sheet if the forward doesn’t butcher an easy finish etc - they’re just stats at the end of the day and will never tell the story like the good old eye test

There's no such thing as a flawed stat, only flawed interpretations and inferences.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

There's no such thing as a flawed stat, only flawed interpretations and inferences.

I love how Kane Cornes went on a month-long rant last year about how kick-ins with a play-on shouldn't count as a kick. Kane Cornes is an idiot.

He described it as a 'loophole' when he wrote for The Age last year:

The ridiculous loophole the AFL needs to close

The game is loaded with great kicks. And it is now being overloaded with cheap kicks that are distorting the game’s statistical history.

www.theage.com.au

Yes, they're not like other types of possessing the ball. Which is why you don't get a possession for it. Which is why Bailey Dale had 16 kicks and 6 handballs in our loss to Sydney last year but only 4 contested possessions and 9 uncontested possessions.

Once Bailey Dale played on from outside the goalsquare, the normal rules of the AFL applied to him. If he had been tackled, prior opportunity counted. The 16 kicks he made - about half of which were kick-ins - still counted as marks by teammates when they marked the ball after his kick.

Dale played a poorer game in matches where he would have had fewer than 16 kicks (and obviously more than 13 possessions). But because Kane Cornes wants to minimise the time he spends watching and thinking about the game rather than talking about it, he's far too lazy to analyse players' performances than simply looking beyond the 'kicks' column, hence the complaint.

He has access to the Champion Data statistics where they record who takes the kick ins. Or, you know, looking at the publicly available possession stats on top of the disposal stats.

It is analysis as deep as NBA fans looking at who leads points per game and deciding one player is better than the other. Which even the most Cornes-esque of NBA media figures stopped doing about 20 years ago.

 

[doggies ftw]

There's no such thing as a flawed stat, only flawed interpretations and inferences.

True, let’s say it has limited importance then

 

[Charlie Bucket]

No one looks at or cares about DE% because it’s clear it’s a flawed stat, not all effective disposals are equal, basic clearance numbers are no different really. I think when people are talking about our “poor clearances” they’re talking about more than just the first possession, even if that technically is the ‘clearance’. Overall from watching the game it doesn’t feel like our clearance game has been damaging for quite some time, even if the raw clearance numbers say otherwise.

I’m sure CD would keep a heap of stats around this that were not privy too but basically you would want to look at your total clearance numbers vs effective disposal clearance, ball retention rate from clearance, inside 50 rate from clearance, scoring chains launched from clearances, meters gained from clearance etc, CD & the clubs would have this stuff I’d imagine. Maybe our man Oliver G can advise?

Put them altogether and you would get a somewhat decent overview of your actual effectiveness of clearances, compared to just the raw total. Obviously it’s not perfect, just like goal assists only go in the stat sheet if the forward doesn’t butcher an easy finish etc - they’re just stats at the end of the day and will never tell the story like the good old eye test

“technically is a clearance”

Moving the goal posts like this doesn’t help with this discussion.

A clearance is a clearance is a clearance. You can’t change what it is.

 

[stefoid]

An interesting stat is we were 2nd for overall clearances last year, but the breakdown was mid-table for centre square and 1st for around the ground stoppages.

That says we are better at clearing when we can put as many numbers around the stoppage as we want.

I found this - 2018-20 probably encapsulates our 'classic' style of play and current midtable mediocrity.

Understanding how Clearances Shape the Results of AFL Games

Remember west coast was pretty good during this period

We are mid table for score per stoppage, and pretty bad for defending score per stoppage. We are also mid table for total number of clearances. Plenty of room for improvement there.

Read it all yourself but this guys takeaway is that quality of clearance is significant and trumps raw total of clearance when correlating whether a team will win or lose

What I fear is that we rely too heavily on numbers around the ball to win clearances, which may have a couple of consequences - 1) its harder to create a decisive clearance in heavy congestion and 2) we perform worse in open space around center bounces, both at winning the clearance and defending when we dont win it.

 

[doggies ftw]

“technically is a clearance”

Moving the goal posts like this doesn’t help with this discussion.

A clearance is a clearance is a clearance. You can’t change what it is.

How am I moving the goal posts lol, I’m not having an opinion on clearances I’m saying people are referring to our stoppage game as a whole, ie the clearance, what happens before or after the clearance is all relevant to this. I know what a clearance stat is, no body gives a * about clearance numbers, it’s just an easy to access stat for us. People have the right to an opinion that overall our stoppage game hasn’t been damaging. I think the club recognises this too hence the additions of Harmes, targeting Sanders, moving Macrae out etc

I guarantee you the club is looking at more data than just clearance numbers

 

[Charlie Bucket]

How am I moving the goal posts lol, I’m not having an opinion on clearances I’m saying people are referring to our stoppage game as a whole, ie the clearance, what happens before or after the clearance is all relevant to this. I know what a clearance stat is, no body gives a * about clearance numbers, it’s just an easy to access stat for us. People have the right to an opinion that overall our stoppage game hasn’t been damaging. I think the club recognises this too hence the additions of Harmes, targeting Sanders, moving Macrae out etc

I guarantee you the club is looking at more data than just clearance numbers

The discussion is about quality of clearance. As per todays earlier post.

Once the balls cleared, that’s general play incorporating A2 and A3 receivers. Nothing to do with the stoppage.

In regards to what stats the coaches are looking at, obviously they look at more than just clearances, but at the stoppage that’s the KPI for any midfield.

 

[MrChristo]

What I fear is that we rely too heavily on numbers around the ball to win clearances, which may have a couple of consequences - 1) its harder to create a decisive clearance in heavy congestion and 2) we perform worse in open space around center bounces, both at winning the clearance and defending when we dont win it.

I haven't read it yet, but there's an obvious 3rd take from extra numbers around a stoppages too...
...and that is that we're generally outnumbered either forward of the ball (and so it's harder for us to score) or behind (it's easier for the opposition to score).
[Having said that the numbers align with our eyes in opposition scoring, in that we generally defend the back 50 well, but once it gets in their we get pantsed.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Read it all yourself but this guys takeaway is that quality of clearance is significant and trumps raw total of clearance when correlating whether a team will win or lose

He’s not talking about quality of the clearance, he’s talking about the importance of turning that clearance in to a scoring opportunity.

He doesn’t reference quality of clearance anywhere in that piece.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

There's no such thing as a flawed stat, only flawed interpretations and inferences.

98% of people agree with you

 

[LondonBulldog]

He’s not talking about quality of the clearance, he’s talking about the importance of turning that clearance in to a scoring opportunity.

He doesn’t reference quality of clearance anywhere in that piece.

Stats can only tell so much, the rest becomes assumptions based on stats.
One would argue that if you turn a clearance into a scoring opportunity at a set % then that the quality of the clearance would be higher than those below that %.
Yet the main premise of the article is that you can still win with average clearance numbers. Its not the be all and end all.

 

[Bulldogs85]

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[Mantis Toboggan]

There's no such thing as a flawed stat, only flawed interpretations and inferences.

A ‘flawed stat’ would surely be a piece of information that is inaccurate or misrepresented.

 

[ScragCity]

A ‘flawed stat’ would surely be a piece of information that is inaccurate or misrepresented.

When DFTW said that it was a flawed stat, I don't think that was a statement about accuracy. Accuracy is more about the ability to measure a stat rather than the stat itself. If I said to you that Jamarra averages 10 goals a game, you wouldn't say that the goals per game stat in general is flawed, but the value I gave was merely inaccurate. The same is true of misrepresentation - if I misrepresent a statistic then that doesn't mean that the statistic itself is inherently flawed.

 

[Mutt]

You are one of my favourite posters, Mofra, but I’m struggling with your comment about Baker. He is more your stop, prop and butcher the ball type. The less of Baker in our Best 23 this season, the better we will be.

I agree - I don't see it with Baker. He is not conducive to us playing fluid, direct football. Baker stops, props and shows indecision too often. A momentum killer.

 

[maddog37]

I agree - I don't see it with Baker. He is not conducive to us playing fluid, direct football. Baker stops, props and shows indecision too often. A momentum killer.

If he gets a game it should be as a run with type imho.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

I agree - I don't see it with Baker. He is not conducive to us playing fluid, direct football. Baker stops, props and shows indecision too often. A momentum killer.

It speaks volumes for how much of a mess our wings are that he and Poulter are serious candidates to fill one or both wing roles next week.

Ive seen nothing over the pre-season that suggests we are any closer to settling this issue than we were a year ago.

Its an indictment on the club that we are likely to see another season of musical chairs rotating a long list second stringers in search of a solution again this year.

During last weeks game when the Hawks went on a 5 goal spree in the second it was a direct result of how poor our wings were at stopping the hawks going directly through the wings. We only wrested control of that game in the second half because our mids lifted as the Hawks tired. The wings will be the achilles heal of our side all season and will probably be the difference between us making finals and wasting another season.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

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More interesting than the game at the SCG

 

[hutchy31]

It speaks volumes for how much of a mess our wings are that he and Poulter are serious candidates to fill one or both wing roles next week.

Ive seen nothing over the pre-season that suggests we are any closer to settling this issue than we were a year ago.

Its an indictment on the club that we are likely to see another season of musical chairs rotating a long list second stringers in search of a solution again this year.

During last weeks game when the Hawks went on a 5 goal spree in the second it was a direct result of how poor our wings were at stopping the hawks going directly through the wings. We only wrested control of that game in the second half because our mids lifted as the Hawks tired. The wings will be the achilles heal of our side all season and will probably be the difference between us making finals and wasting another season.

That’s interesting, I didn’t notice that on first watch (probably too busy throwing things at the tv and doom-posting on the game day thread….)

If the wings are a real weakness defensively then there are more than a few teams that are well positioned to exploit that.

 

[dogwatch]

…

Ive seen nothing over the pre-season that suggests we are any closer to settling this issue than we were a year ago.

Its an indictment on the club that we are likely to see another season of musical chairs rotating a long list second stringers in search of a solution again this year.

…

Freijah and perhaps O’Driscoll are legitimate attempts to solve this problem. The club deserves credit for that even if it’s a couple of years too late.

However neither could be expected to be ready to play senior football early in their first season out of juniors. Hence the ongoing merry go round of mature age hopefuls like Baker, Poulter etc. With a bit of luck one of those might make the grade.

There’s also Bedendo who might have made a winger by now (if not a HFF/HBF) but has had a wretched run with injuries.

So it’s not as if the club hasn’t tried.