Training 2024 training updates.

[Pleasedontfail11]

Josh fits as an exception - but it did take him getting on top of his asthma


Mitchell played 10 games in his first year
Frampton isn't looking like become anything more than a fringe player
Murphy was injured for most of his early years, but does fit
IQ doesn't fit at all - he tracked like a very good player in terms of games played
Moore doesn't fit at all - he was a regular really early - wouldn't have played much VFL at all.
WHE doesn't fit - 10, 9, 20 were his first 3 years at GWS - then he missed most of the next two with injuries.
Lippa was getting 10 games a year straight away.

Basically the ones it fit as exceptions had to overcome injury/health issues.

Mitchell played 10 games in a year when the swans played 24 games and followed it up with 5 games out of 24 in the second year. But im happy with the rest of the assessment and I dont really have the time to produce a proper response.

 

[Scodog10]

I think it checks out, but I also think it'll change for one-paced inside mids. I think they'll start following more of a tall time line, as they won't get used in a flanker role with the way the game has changed and they often take a while to be ready for inside mid.

I'm not that worried about the games played figure for either Macrae or Reef. Macrae for the reasons above and Reef because he may do a Murphy by breaking the trend without breaking the trend - becoming a tall and thus following that time line. I'm not sure if they'll make it, but I don't think those games played are relevant.

What’s that role at Collingwood in 2024? The reason I ask is that he’s uncontracted entering his 4th season on one of the most competitive lists in the league which makes it make or break at Collingwood, IMO. I look at our best mix and can pinpoint only Mitchell as that type and we have two train on players who have Macrae covered at the lower level. All of our recent draftees are athletically gifted in a way Macrae won’t ever be so they’ll be preferred for the flank roles we once weened our young mids on…

I think Apex36 makes a point that he’s receiving the pump up, but I’m not convinced it works at Collingwood for him. I hope he surprises me though.

 

[swoop42]

The one big difference between those players drafted between 2010-19 and players like McInnes and Macrae is that unless they suffered a serious injury they didn't see their final year in the U18 competition wiped out.

Compounding that issue the 2021 VFL season was also interrupted before eventually being cancelled.

Hard not to think this couldn't have delayed player development and at the very least they deserve an asterisk against their names as their experience between 2020-21 was a uniquely different pathway and beginning to life as a Collingwood player.

Personally I think this year, year 4 is a fairer comparison to the 3rd season of their contempories drafted pre COVID and injury permitting we'll have a better understanding of their worth come seasons end.

 

[Scodog10]

As mentioned, Shooter in for Ginni and Reef or AJ for Frampton.

The other spot that may be up for grabs is Lippa. If he continues to be ‘suspect’ in the defensive side of the game (tackle averse), his spot may be filled by a Macrae or AJ /Reef (ie. the tall that doesn’t take Frampton’s spot).

If it’s a tall, then we will roll with Checkers, AJ and Reef + the smalls (Shooter, Bobby, Billy and McReery) with perhaps Billy & McReery providing some midfield /CS burst minutes.

If Lippa’s spot is not taken by a tall, then Macrae may be given the opportunity as the Adams replacement (high half forward moving into stoppage as the +1 and then rotating on-ball to give Titch a chop out).

I know Lippa’s running & ability to connect mid-to-forward chains is valued but he definitely needs to ‘up’ his defensive intensity on last year’s showing (irrespective of shoulder issues).

I can see it, but also don’t see Lippa as remotely vulnerable to Macrae because he doesn’t offer the run or ball use. Perhaps if we rejigged to playing mids regardless of role and skill set so just picked our best 23, but I’m with Sr and think we’ve moved away from that in which case I think Allan would be hunting for that spot.

 

[sr36]

What’s that role at Collingwood in 2024? The reason I ask is that he’s uncontracted entering his 4th season on one of the most competitive lists in the league which makes it make or break at Collingwood, IMO. I look at our best mix and can pinpoint only Mitchell as that type and we have two train on players who have Macrae covered at the lower level.

It's a good point. I don't know why I put "inside" in there, as I was also thinking of guys like Lippa, Adams and Pendles. Last year we ran with Lipinski, Mitchell, Adams, Sidey, even Josh doesn't fly.

I think that pace being a necessity isnt yet a midfield thing. You'd love them to all be able to run like Jordy, but there's definitely still a place in the midfield for blokes who are excellent at other things. I think game sense, awareness, skill and endurance are still king for mids.

Basically, I don't think a young Lippa or Tay would have gotten games in our current team. However, like you I'm a Macrae skeptic, just not to do with number of games played. Last year when I watched VFL, like Hustwaite, Finn looked like a good solid VFL player to me.

 

[Gone Critical]

Mitchell played 10 games in a year when the swans played 24 games and followed it up with 5 games out of 24 in the second year. But im happy with the rest of the assessment and I dont really have the time to produce a proper response.

Also Mitchell missed a lot of games with injury in 3rd season otherwise would have played more

 

[Gone Critical]

The one big difference between those players drafted between 2010-19 and players like McInnes and Macrae is that unless they suffered a serious injury they didn't see their final year in the U18 competition wiped out.

Compounding that issue the 2021 VFL season was also interrupted before eventually being cancelled.

Hard not to think this couldn't have delayed player development and at the very least they deserve an asterisk against their names as their experience between 2020-21 was a uniquely different pathway and beginning to life as a Collingwood player.

Personally I think this year, year 4 is a fairer comparison to the 3rd season of their contempories drafted pre COVID and injury permitting we'll have a better understanding of their worth come seasons end.

I dont really buy that reason give 36 of the 59 players selected in the 2020 draft have played more games that Finn or Reef with the same caveat. 22 of those are in the 30's 40's 50's or 60's for number of games played. Seems the numbers are the same as every other year if you look through them.

 

[loki04]

Since the release of the film I thought it was a reference to using evidence as opposed to reputation.

I always took to be a cheaper cost player performing a role at or above a more fancied expensive franchise player.
Of course movie watched as well, would imagine more watched the movie then read the book in general public.

Hence why I think many relate money ball to the AFL scenario of specialised role players vs all round gun in a specific role.

 

[Harry O]

I dont really buy that reason give 36 of the 59 players selected in the 2020 draft have played more games that Finn or Reef with the same caveat. 22 of those are in the 30's 40's 50's or 60's for number of games played. Seems the numbers are the same as every other year if you look through them.

Have played more games is a very poor indicator. Otherwise why did Jason Wild not flourish at the level

Lots of reasons why you might play less games compared to contemporaries which may have little correlation to end of career status

 

[loki04]

It's a bit of both. Moneyball used stats to re-evaluate skillsets and attributes. So you can focus on the stats or you can focus on the re-evaluation as being the heart of Moneyball.

In AFL, clubs don't share their recruiting criteria let alone whether it was stats or theory that was used to devise the criteria.

With that in mind, I'm happy for people to describe it as Moneyball when they're talking about re-evaluation of attributes or skillsets. It's only when they say cheap player equals Moneyball that I bristle.

It's not just cheap player.

People see it as; a "at cost" player who performs the role as well or better then a more highly regarded player or gun. Freeing up cap space but not losing impact on team performance thereby improving said team.
You can thank the movie for creating that line of thinking when talking about money ball players.

 

[Gone Critical]

Each to their own, but much like with Josh Daicos, I’m going to trust my gut on this one and say Reef and Fin have the tools, they just needed the extra time due to circumstances beyond their control.
I’m fully expecting Reef to line up in the 22 in round 1 and I’m 80% sure Fin will be too.

Of course . My stuff is retricted by lack of consideration of individuals. On my theory there is no reason to favour Reef over Finn but I do. Considering individuals he to me looks much more AFL than Finn. Finn is in the BenKen, Broomy, Call Brown group who look good at VFL level but struggle to translate. Thought his half in that last H&A match in 23 emphasised that. Looked not quite at the level. Fantastic if he explodes and I am wrong but in racing parlance when I look at our field I would mark him with "prefer others"

 

[Gone Critical]

Have played more games is a very poor indicator. Otherwise why did Jason Wild not flourish at the level

Lots of reasons why you might play less games compared to contemporaries which may have little correlation to end of career status

I have put a lot of info up as to why games played in 1st 3 seasons is a very good indicator. Jason Wild follow a path lots of the players I have listed follow so he is no exception.

If you think its poor maybe give us a bit more evidence than a single anecdote

 

[Harry O]

I have put a lot of info up as to why games played in 1st 3 seasons is a very good indicator. Jason Wild follow a path lots of the players I have listed follow so he is no exception.

If you think its poor maybe give us a bit more evidence than a single anecdote

Not sure we need to provide evidence. Common sense tells us it is a very broad brush theory and I think given the Covid impacts on this cohort and the older team Fin and Reef are trying to break in to , I see a big chance the games played to date have little relevance to their chances of long term careers
I prefer the eye test on players attributes than some stats based measure

 

[Apex36]

Also Mitchell missed a lot of games with injury in 3rd season otherwise would have played more

If we’re going to go in to reasons why players didn’t play, Fin played 9 games in his first year (and was relatively impressive) and then had his next two preseasons interrupted by injury and the death of his father. I think it’s fair to say it’s likely he’d have played more if not for those interruptions too.

 

[Abdul_The_Bull]

Of course . My stuff is retricted by lack of consideration of individuals. On my theory there is no reason to favour Reef over Finn but I do. Considering individuals he to me looks much more AFL than Finn. Finn is in the BenKen, Broomy, Call Brown group who look good at VFL level but struggle to translate. Thought his half in that last H&A match in 23 emphasised that. Looked not quite at the level. Fantastic if he explodes and I am wrong but in racing parlance when I look at our field I would mark him with "prefer others"

I thought Fin's last H&A game was very serviceable. He wasn't going to break into the side going into finals with that performance but had it been a few games before the finals I reckon he would have got a nother run at it. Bianco on the other hand... his last performance at senior level stamped his exit ticket.

 

[Apex36]

Of course . My stuff is retricted by lack of consideration of individuals. On my theory there is no reason to favour Reef over Finn but I do. Considering individuals he to me looks much more AFL than Finn. Finn is in the BenKen, Broomy, Call Brown group who look good at VFL level but struggle to translate. Thought his half in that last H&A match in 23 emphasised that. Looked not quite at the level. Fantastic if he explodes and I am wrong but in racing parlance when I look at our field I would mark him with "prefer others"

I think you should go back and watch some of what he did in year 1. He had some excellent games playing mid/fwd in the back half of the year and I have vivid memories of some of his inside 50’s being sublime. Both Fin and Reef have both had significant interruptions to their early careers that have affected their numbers of games played. And I think both have a future with us if they can get a clean run at it.

 

[Gone Critical]

If we’re going to go in to reasons why players didn’t play, Fin played 9 games in his first year (and was relatively impressive) and then had his next two preseasons interrupted by injury and the death of his father. I think it’s fair to say it’s likely he’d have played more if not for those interruptions too.

Sure but that is a little different to actually not being available to be picked which I believe Mitchell wasnt for a lot of his 3rd year. I think Finn has been essentially available for all 3 seasons

 

[sr36]

Have played more games is a very poor indicator. Otherwise why did Jason Wild not flourish at the level

Lots of reasons why you might play less games compared to contemporaries which may have little correlation to end of career status

I think it's pretty straight forward:

Players play a lot of games early for two main reasons:

a) coaches believe they're best 22
b) coaches rate their potential and believe that getting games into them is the way to go.

Jason Wild's effort and attack on the footy was elite. Coaches love that and I I suspect the coach felt the rest of his game would become competent due to his effort.

Group a) are more likely to make it because if they're best 22 at 20 years old, they're going to be at 25 as players improve and they'll be better by then.

Group b) will fail more than group a), because the coaches won't always get it right as they're trying to predict the future, but they'll get it right more often than not if they know their stuff and also If getting early games into them is beneficial, it will sometimes also be a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Apex36]

Sure but that is a little different to actually not being available to be picked which I believe Mitchell wasnt for a lot of his 3rd year. I think Finn has been essentially available for all 3 seasons

I think you’re clutching at straws trying to justify Mitchell’s injury vs Fins. How available for senior footy can a kid be, coming off almost no match fitness base two years in a row? He did well to perform like he did in the VFL, putting a kid in the seniors without a preseason is setting them up to fail, and our coaching panel knows it.

 

[Gone Critical]

I thought Fin's last H&A game was very serviceable. He wasn't going to break into the side going into finals with that performance but had it been a few games before the finals I reckon he would have got a nother run at it. Bianco on the other hand... his last performance at senior level stamped his exit ticket.

I think you should go back and watch some of what he did in year 1. He had some excellent games playing mid/fwd in the back half of the year and I have vivid memories of some of his inside 50’s being sublime. Both Fin and Reef have both had significant interruptions to their early careers that have affected their numbers of games played. And I think both have a future with us if they can get a clean run at it.

I was more impressed by Finn in his 1st year than now. I remember a fantastic inside 50 that wowed me a bit. Am more than happy to be wrong. Its just I see more potential in others and they cant all make it, some will fall by the wayside. Call Brown did some much better stuff again in year 3 that gave hope but it didn't get replicated.

My calls on games played isn't meant to pick players just be a general observation and a guide to who might kick. Its distinct from what my eye see. I have no reason to pick anyone but it would be great if Harry or Tew could be one of the guys who jumps straight into the 22 as that would indicate a real high chance of a top end player. If you look at 2010 a guy like Luke Parker pick 40 or Jeremy How pick 33 they would have been just hopefuls at the club this time of the year in 2010 but they played 13 games each season 1 and 20 + season 2 ( Parker in a flag). Thats a typical track for a later pick who ends up being really good, they are not too common though.

 

[Gone Critical]

I think you’re clutching at straws trying to justify Mitchell’s injury vs Fins. How available for senior footy can a kid be, coming off almost no match fitness base two years in a row? He did well to perform like he did in the VFL, putting a kid in the seniors without a preseason is setting them up to fail, and our coaching panel knows it.

No worries, I am not trying to make it a match between them. I hope your view on Finn is right and I hope mine on Allen is. From the mix we get 2 or 3 clear best 22s will set us up. Maybe doesnt matter who they are in the end but we have own opinions on whose most likely.

 

[JuniorB]

I think it's pretty straight forward:

Players play a lot of games early for two main reasons:

a) coaches believe they're best 22
b) coaches rate their potential and believe that getting games into them is the way to go.

Jason Wild's effort and attack on the footy was elite. Coaches love that and I I suspect the coach felt the rest of his game would become competent due to his effort.

Group a) are more likely to make it because if they're best 22 at 20 years old, they're going to be at 25 as players improve and they'll be better by then.

Group b) will fail more than group a), because the coaches won't always get it right as they're trying to predict the future, but they'll get it right more often than not if they know their stuff and also If getting early games into them is beneficial, it will sometimes also be a self fulfilling prophecy.

But for injury, Nick would already have played 50 games.

 

[Doc1763]

But for injury, Nick would already have played 50 games.

And have a Brownlow and a Copeland

 

[Doc1763]

The Master and the Apprentice - 29/01/2024.

 

[Pistol Night]

The Master and the Apprentice - 29/01/2024.

View attachment 1895377

Such awesome quality pics Doc. Loving your work