Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[DangerousD]

If we deal with Rich and they offer future picks, we'd need to find someone to pass them to for more picks this year, otherwise we won't be able to match a Dean bid.

But yeah, Rich bid on Dean won't happen imo.

Ess desperately need mids, they won't bid on Dean either imo.

He's a real stretch to go top 5.

Uwland, Patterson and Annable will most likely be bid on before him. We should be fine.

It just seems over complicated, we just saw GWS trade a pick in the 30s to climb 2 spots in the teens, clubs will offer us similar deals.

I’d be holding firm and trying to get a player around the 14 mark.

That possibly gives us an opportunity to get more picks in next years draft

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Just my opinion, I can't see Ess bidding on him. They have key back stocks and are severely lacking quality mids. I also highly doubt they'd want to bid to play games given they have some talent coming up in 27 draft and wouldn't want to act in bad faith to avoid copping their medicine.

Opposition clubs have a good idea where each other's lists are at. If Ess were really lacking second kpd options, then a bid on Dean would be more understandable.

Melbourne could be the ones. And again, they won't bid on him with their first pick given they've got another pick straight after. So their pick 8 (or whatever it slides to) could be where it happens. But again, they would probably want mids anyway given they lost Oliver and Trac. But unlikely they let Dean slide at that point.

I think what clubs are needing is largely irrelevant because they know they will never draft the player and will be purely bidding to ensure we pay 'fair' value. The fact he is not a standout top 5 pick like the GC & Bris academies and there is so much variance in player rankings like Sharp, Lindsay & Schubert I think we might be quietly confident of him sliding back until after our 1st pick.

If this happens, we could then look to trade pick 11 back to say Essendon for 21 & 27

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think what clubs are needing is largely irrelevant because they know they will never draft the player and will be purely bidding to ensure we pay 'fair' value. The fact he is not a standout top 5 pick like the GC & Bris academies and there is so much variance in player rankings like Sharp, Lindsay & Schubert I think we might be quietly confident of him sliding back until after our 1st pick.

If this happens, we could then look to trade pick 11 back to say Essendon for 21 & 27

Yeah could very well be... we'll see in a month's time.

 

[ferrisb]

What is the likelyhood of Dean being bid on by Essendon or Melbourne? Wwith Tim Lamb & Matt Rosa to have them direct there energy elsewhere.. Hawks will prob make the bid at pick 10, but then we could trade pick 11 back to take advantage of points needed.

I can't speak for Ess/Melb, but I'd be very confident Hawks don't bid.

I don't think we would have done the pick swap with them without an agreement on Dean. OR... maybe the deal with Hawks was to allow us to get a pick in before their Dean bid. Maybe that was the whole point of moving up from 10 to 9...

 

[Stamos]

I can't speak for Ess/Melb, but I'd be very confident Hawks don't bid.

I don't think we would have done the pick swap with them without an agreement on Dean. OR... maybe the deal with Hawks was to allow us to get a pick in before their Dean bid. Maybe that was the whole point of moving up from 10 to 9...

Hawks backline is stacked, need more mids

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I can't speak for Ess/Melb, but I'd be very confident Hawks don't bid.

I don't think we would have done the pick swap with them without an agreement on Dean. OR... maybe the deal with Hawks was to allow us to get a pick in before their Dean bid. Maybe that was the whole point of moving up from 10 to 9...

Can't see Hawks bidding on him ferris.

Reckon that trade was so Hawks could get "another first round pick" for the Merrett trade.

It helped us too because Sydney were asking for pick 22, so we probably said to ourselves let's split it, that way we can give the Swans some points (which is really what they were after anyway) plus keep a few for ourselves.

 

[Milanista28]

6+21+27 For 9+11+43+54 We don't bid at 5, you get a player and Dean?

This could be done on draft night.

 

[BluesForEternity]

Slightly crazy idea...what if we did this trade in terms of the draft...:

Give: Pick 9, Pick 11, Swans 2026 F1
Receive: Pick 13 (West Coast), West Coast 2026 F1

Makes it easier to guarantee getting Cody next year (in case we need to match Pick 1 and can only can use two picks). We don't really need both Pick 9 and 11 to match Dean. This also gives the Eagles a better shot at grabbing some really good players in the draft. Maybe we can even do some other swaps with later picks to take some of picks 34/41/53 - I believe they are likely to only have five list spots and won't need all of them.

Of course, big question is if West Coast would be willing to do it - or if they want to hold onto the value of their 2026 first.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

6+21+27 For 9+11+43+54 We don't bid at 5, you get a player and Dean?

This could be done on draft night.

Reckon that's pretty close to what we'd be hoping for. Just depends on who's available at that pick though.

 

[Milanista28]

Reckon that's pretty close to what we'd be hoping for. Just depends on who's available at that pick though.

Good thing about this deal, it can be done when we're on the clock, if you don't like who is available you trade out into next year and bolster 2026 even further.

 

[BlackGoanna]

Assuming our later picks 43, 54, will come in approx 7 spots, we need Ison to be bid 28+ to match points on those later picks we have.

If he is bid on earlier how do we match without a deficit.

Maybe we slide 11 back a pick or 2 with GWS or WC and get there 2nd rounder to ensure we match the bid. Any excess points we can trade those late picks into next year for points.

We come out of the draft with Dean, Ison and a selection in the teens. Hopefully we can get some excess points to push into 2026

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Good thing about this deal, it can be done when we're on the clock, if you don't like who is available you trade out into next year and bolster 2026 even further.

Pretty much, not sure if the Dons would be happy with it though tbh? The 43 and 54 aren't worth much in terms of points for us but you'd also need to clear up more list spots to take them on no?

 

[Milanista28]

Pretty much, not sure if the Dons would be happy with it though tbh? The 43 and 54 aren't worth much in terms of points for us but you'd also need to clear up more list spots to take them on no?

When the draft starts the list spots vs draft pick rule goes out the window, only matters heading into the draft, been a loop hole that's been exploited for years, I don't think it's been closed yet.

 

[Coona Blues]

As things currently stand, we have 9 + 11.

Absolute worst case (and imo extremely unlikely) scenario, Ess bid on Dean with 5.

1795 - 10% = 1616 points required.

pick 9 = 1355

1616 - 1355 = 261 points required

pick 11 = 1205 - 261 = 944

So our 11 then slides back to pick 16.

Bid @ pick 6:

1659 - 10% = 1493 points required.

1493 - 1355 = 138 points required

1205 - 138 = 1067

So our 11 slides back to pick 14.

Bid @ pick 7:

1543 - 10% = 1389 points required.

1389 - 1355 = 34 points required

1205 - 34 = 1171

So our pick 11 stays where it is.

So unless Dean is bid on in the top 6, we should be fine to match without impacting our pick 11. I think a likely scenario now is, Melbourne bid on him at 8 tbh.

If they don't though, pick 9 can be used to draft whoever we want of the remaining crop and then we likely just take Dean with 11 anyway.

We need to be careful about combining 9 + 11 to move up now though...

I've seen the talk around asking Richmond for pick 4...

Well, maybe they do that trade, but the only other pick they can give back is 38.

38 + 43 + 54, look they might push forward after bid matching, but still, will be nowhere near enough to match a bid at pick 8 which requires 1299 points after the discount.

So the only suitable option up the order this year is if we can convince Essendon to give us 6 + 21 + 27 but then we'd be cutting it close...

21 + 27 + 43 + 54 = 1452 points. 1299 required for a pick 8 bid match leaves us with 153 points to match an Ison bid. We'd have to hope no one bids on him before pick 40. Of course, this isn't factoring in 43 and 54 coming up a bit due to bids consuming other picks... so we might be able to match from 33 onwards...

If the Demons are pricks and bid on Dean with 7, we'd still be able to match, but then we'd have to really hope Ison doesn't get bid on till after pick 45 or manufacture another 3rd rounder from somewhere...

Good guide line mate.

Gets skewed considerably when bids (and matches) come for Uwland, Patterson and Annable. By all logic they should all come before Dean, which is why I think he is a chance to get to nine, which should notionally become 12.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Good thing about this deal, it can be done when we're on the clock, if you don't like who is available you trade out into next year and bolster 2026 even further.

How do we get Ison, though?

 

[Milanista28]

How do we get Ison, though?

We have pick 30 as well, maybe we could find another club and grab enough points for all of us.

 

[Bic]

Any possibility that if no bid comes we pick up 2 kids with 9 + 11 then get Dean/Ison after?

Would we need to delist anymore?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Any possibility that if no bid comes we pick up 2 kids with 9 + 11 then get Dean/Ison after?

Would we need to delist anymore?

Wouldn't have the points if we don't trade for more picks

 

[ctwenty1]

Slightly crazy idea...what if we did this trade in terms of the draft...:

Give: Pick 9, Pick 11, Swans 2026 F1
Receive: Pick 13 (West Coast), West Coast 2026 F1

Makes it easier to guarantee getting Cody next year (in case we need to match Pick 1 and can only can use two picks). We don't really need both Pick 9 and 11 to match Dean. This also gives the Eagles a better shot at grabbing some really good players in the draft. Maybe we can even do some other swaps with later picks to take some of picks 34/41/53 - I believe they are likely to only have five list spots and won't need all of them.

Of course, big question is if West Coast would be willing to do it - or if they want to hold onto the value of their 2026 first.

North and Rich will be the other one id be willing to trade this year R1 and Syd F1 for points this year and a North/Rich F1 - all assumung we dont want a plaeyr other than dean and ison this year


I am just assuming essendon will want to hold on to theirs as I suspect they may be very close to the bottom next year

 

[ctwenty1]

Any possibility that if no bid comes we pick up 2 kids with 9 + 11 then get Dean/Ison after?

Would we need to delist anymore?

depends who is available but yes we would need to delist more

 

[Blue and Silver]

Time to try the hard work of figuring out bid matching.

Assumptions to smooth the difficulty

No further trades (which are likely).

Bids as per Rookie Me rankings

Ok so

Bid 1 Zeke Uwland @pick 2 (2481)

GC match (2232) with Pick 15 (973), 18(836), 24 (621) = 198 left over which becomes pick 43

Bid 2 Dylan Patterson @pick 4 (1962)

GC Match (1765) with Pick 26 (561) , 27 (533), 34(360) 43 (198) 50 (71) carry 42 points of debt into next year.

Bid 3 Daniel Annable @ pick 5 (1795)

Bris match (1615) with 18 (836), 23 (653), 40 (238) = 111 left over which becomes pick 48

Bid 4 Harry Dean @ 7 (1543)

Carl match (1388) with pick 12 (1140), pick 14 (1024) =775 left over which becomes pick 20

Bid 5 Max King

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

@ 18 (836)

Syd Match (752) with pick 23 ( 653) pick 24 (621) = 521 left over which becomes pick 28

Bid 6 Beau Addinsal @24

GC cannot match

Bid 7 Jack Ison @25 (590)

Carl Match (506) with pick 36 (317) pick 47 (117) = 434 carry 72 points deficit into next year.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Can't see Hawks bidding on him ferris.

Reckon that trade was so Hawks could get "another first round pick" for the Merrett trade.

It helped us too because Sydney were asking for pick 22, so we probably said to ourselves let's split it, that way we can give the Swans some points (which is really what they were after anyway) plus keep a few for ourselves.

the hawks did get reasonably burned on that trade - pick 43 was all excess /profit

 

[BlueBlood15]

Will be very interesting to see how we approach trading leading into and on draft night. We’ve clearly got enough points for Dean and Ison but the question is what else can we get beyond these two. We might want another player in this draft or more draft capital for 2026. I can’t see us entering the draft with picks 9, 11, 43 and 54 as they require Ison to slip a bit in order for us to have the points to match his bid.

 

[GT619]

Slightly crazy idea...what if we did this trade in terms of the draft...:

Give: Pick 9, Pick 11, Swans 2026 F1
Receive: Pick 13 (West Coast), West Coast 2026 F1

Makes it easier to guarantee getting Cody next year (in case we need to match Pick 1 and can only can use two picks). We don't really need both Pick 9 and 11 to match Dean. This also gives the Eagles a better shot at grabbing some really good players in the draft. Maybe we can even do some other swaps with later picks to take some of picks 34/41/53 - I believe they are likely to only have five list spots and won't need all of them.

Of course, big question is if West Coast would be willing to do it - or if they want to hold onto the value of their 2026 first.

Eagles need talent asap

 

[ferrisb]

depends who is available but yes we would need to delist more

Finding delisting candidates has never been a problem at Carlton