Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Bletch]

He said it very decisively, then kind of contradicted himself by saying it depends who's there and we might look at trading for futures instead.

Seems like our preference is to pick but needs to be the right player.

But I'd be shocked if there is any move to trade Roos F2 back in. Talked about currency next year being a priority.

If anything we might try to gain another future pick. Can't see us trading back in.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Seems to be a lot of talk that WC will trade the pick 2 they’ve been holding us to ransom with to Essendon once we trade our pick 9.

Would we have enough points for Dean and Ison if we only did the trade with North?

 

[Uncle Fester]

just looked back at the 2021 draft - pick 2 - Sam Darcy required 1063 points, Nick Daicos - Pick 4 - 884 -

just wow - they dont need to go harder than they have

EDIT - what they paid back then was about half of what they would need to pay today

2. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (ruck-forward, Oakleigh Chargers/Glen Iris/Scotch College/Vic Metro) [Matched GWS bid using picks 34, 42, 43, 44, 45]

4. Collingwood - Nick Daicos (midfielder, Oakleigh Chargers/Kew Rovers/Vic Metro) [Matched Gold Coast bid using picks 38, 40, 42, 44]

 

[Uncle Fester]

Seems to be a lot of talk that WC will trade the pick 2 they’ve been holding us to ransom with to Essendon once we trade our pick 9.

Would we have enough points for Dean and Ison if we only did the trade with North?

i see significant benefit in holding on to the trade until the bid actually comes.....

 

[Blue and Silver]

just looked back at the 2021 draft - pick 2 - Sam Darcy required 1063 points, Nick Daicos - Pick 4 - 884 -

just wow - they dont need to go harder than they have

Also part of the reason that they weren't bid on earlier.

It doesn't make much difference to the bidding club as they are no chance of getting them and the price didn't change much

 

[Bletch]

i see significant benefit in holding on to the trade until the bid actually comes.....

Agree, though it's probable Norf and * will be getting offers from GC and maybe Brisbane as well, so our hand may be forced.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

just looked back at the 2021 draft - pick 2 - Sam Darcy required 1063 points, Nick Daicos - Pick 4 - 884 -

just wow - they dont need to go harder than they have

Actual insanity.

 

[DrTrain]

Can a 3 way trade be done on draft night? I’d feel a lot better with Essendon getting 2 before the bids and us having an agreement with them to not bid on dean. If WC then bid on dean with their live pick 5 likely pick 8 that would be much better for us.

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[marcmurphy3]

Agree, though it's probable Norf and * will be getting offers from GC and maybe Brisbane as well, so our hand may be forced.

Yeah the Essendon deal in particular we need to do before Uwland bid otherwise Don's might deal with GC.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Actual insanity.

as per edit - i screwed up - they had to pay 2000 & 1800 odd points, but were able to do them with points/picks which are essentially worth half today

 

[Michael Jezz]

Imagine telling Austin and co twelve months ago that Jagga and HOF would both do ACLs, and Harry and Ison would both bolt into the 2025 first round

Planning for the worst is one thing but this year has been something else

Your post points to the extent luck plays apart, even when you have the right strategy. Luck swings both ways...we are due

 

[mrkyuss]

Only Carlton would trade the picks before the actual pick to let Essendon get pick 2… hopefully some common sense prevails…

 

[carlton_99]

Only Carlton would trade the picks before the actual pick to let Essendon get pick 2… hopefully some common sense prevails…

If * move up to 2 they may not bid on Dean and he will fall another pick or two. Might not be the worst thing

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

Only Carlton would trade the picks before the actual pick to let Essendon get pick 2… hopefully some common sense prevails…

They can just ask the eagles to bid on Dean and then trade the pick. Which is what I’d suspect they would do

 

[ctwenty1]

If * move up to 2 they may not bid on Dean and he will fall another pick or two. Might not be the worst thing

and means some of our later picks come in so our third could be earlier than thought and we could benefit by offering picks to help other clubs match their bids and grab some f3 or f4

 

[Sonny Jim]

Excuse Tigers supporter
I understand Carlton’s angst with giving up your draft picks, However, it does help WC and the tigers if your picks are chewed up by our early bids. It is no more than you’d want your recruiting team to do if our positions were reversed.

My point is, if you try it then we screw you by getting Ess and Nth involved so you still keep your original draft hand and just piss off a potential trading partner for next year for no reason.

 

[Jimmae]

Also the bid won't come at 3 if Essendon can get up and grab the pick. Hopefully comes at 4 or 5.

Seems to be a lot of talk that WC will trade the pick 2 they’ve been holding us to ransom with to Essendon once we trade our pick 9.

Would we have enough points for Dean and Ison if we only did the trade with North?

This is exactly the scenario that had me getting so animated... with any luck we're not involved in the initial trade, and they use 21 to move up to 2/3, and then we swing trades with Richmond and Essendon.

There's definitely scope for us to move up if WC want to trade out and Essendon and Richmond don't want to bid in favour of securing specific targets (Grlj for Richmond, small forward for Essendon before GWS have access).

 

[marcmurphy3]

Only Carlton would trade the picks before the actual pick to let Essendon get pick 2… hopefully some common sense prevails…

Who cares whether we are helping Essendon get pick 2? We just need to do best by us. If we help another club simultaneously, its actually a good thing as it creates good will for future transactions.

Also, Essendon probably dont bid on Dean at 2 so it could be great for us (not that I expect it to happen). Though WC might still do their bids before trading.

 

[cfc05]

Is West Coast costing itself by trying to bluff us?

Right now, as it stands they have pick 13.. take out all other matches, as they come after this pick, they simplistically think this pick comes in 2 by taking 9 and 11 of us? Well played in theory?

However, by bidding this early, we will now trade them to two certain users and two clubs - North and Essendon on almost the exact same list build timeline - direct competitors.

They are more likely to get pick 1, 2 and 11 by NOT bidding on Dean, than bidding on him?

They will 100% not get that pick 13 higher by bidding and remain a good to great chance of it coming in one or two spots by not bidding?

Scenario 1 (Won't happen):

West Coast bid pick 1 or 2, Carlton do no trades and match.

West Coast will pick 1,2,11.... well played WC.

Scenario 2:

West Coast bid pick 1 or 2, Carlton trade and match.

West Coast will pick 1,2,13.... north and Essendon 100% use those picks.

Scenario 3:

West Coast don't bid on Dean, pick their player or bid on Patterson/Annable (or Richmond do)

Richmond pick Dean pick 6.. Carlton Match and lose 9/11 and get 22 (may stay in to get this one back).

West Coast will pick 1,2,11....

Scenario 4:

West Coast don't bid on Dean, pick their player or bid on Patterson/Annable (or Richmond do)

Richmond don't bid Dean.. Essendon do Carlton Match and lose 9/11 and get 18 (almost certainly stay in for this pick).

West Coast will pick 1,2,11....

 

[Red_man2008]

Feeling like we are going to be the first team really dudded by a club bidding on a player well before they are rated by every expert... If Harry Dean is bid on with a pick before Ashcroft & Daicos who were both clear #1 picks we can really count ourselves unlucky. I just don't get why WC would bid early, they may rate him highly but know they are never going to get the player and are just forcing us to pay overs unnecessarily.

I read the prendercast shared a post yesterday which demonstrated that WC bidding at 3 is only doing them harm while advantaging teams around them like Essendon and North.

The premise is that Carlton trade out two first round picks and giving them to birth and Essendon which push WC pick 13 further out. If they instead bid on Bris GC father son/ academy players they would improve their draft position disadvantaging two teams that have been rotting the system at their expense for over 10 years. What’s better hitting two teams or hitting one team and advantaging two direct competitors.

 

[Sonny Jim]

Who cares whether we are helping Essendon get pick 2? We just need to do best by us. If we help another club simultaneously, its actually a good thing as it creates good will for future transactions.

Also, Essendon probably dont bid on Dean at 2 so it could be great for us (not that I expect it to happen). Though WC might still do their bids before trading.

Even if they did we still would have lost nothing from our trade.
WC and Richmond bidding is pointless.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

They are more likely to get pick 1, 2 and 11 by NOT bidding on Dean, than bidding on him?

They will 100% not get that pick 13 higher by bidding and remain a good to great chance of it coming in one or two spots by not bidding?

Not sure.
Why wouldn't we still trade 9&11 to Ess/NM anyway? The extra points are still useful for a better 3rd selection and/or carry forward to next year.
A later bid means we need less points for Dean but we still want to maximise our overall position

 

[marcmurphy3]

Is West Coast costing itself by trying to bluff us?

Right now, as it stands they have pick 13.. take out all other matches, as they come after this pick, they simplistically think this pick comes in 2 by taking 9 and 11 of us? Well played in theory?

However, by bidding this early, we will now trade them to two certain users and two clubs - North and Essendon on almost the exact same list build timeline - direct competitors.

They are more likely to get pick 1, 2 and 11 by NOT bidding on Dean, than bidding on him?

They will 100% not get that pick 13 higher by bidding and remain a good to great chance of it coming in one or two spots by not bidding?

Scenario 1 (Won't happen):

West Coast bid pick 1 or 2, Carlton do no trades and match.

West Coast will pick 1,2,11.... well played WC.

Scenario 2:

West Coast bid pick 1 or 2, Carlton trade and match.

West Coast will pick 1,2,13.... north and Essendon 100% use those picks.

Scenario 3:

West Coast don't bid on Dean, pick their player or bid on Patterson/Annable (or Richmond do)

Richmond pick Dean pick 6.. Carlton Match and lose 9/11 and get 22 (may stay in to get this one back).

West Coast will pick 1,2,11....

Scenario 4:

West Coast don't bid on Dean, pick their player or bid on Patterson/Annable (or Richmond do)

Richmond don't bid Dean.. Essendon do Carlton Match and lose 9/11 and get 18 (almost certainly stay in for this pick).

West Coast will pick 1,2,11....

I dont think sliding back (and letting our picks get swallowed/slid back) is a viable option even if WC leave it to the Tigers to bid. Trading 9 and 11 for points makes sense regardless, so those picks arent getting wiped.

That was only ever a decent option if the Dean bid came close to 9 and even then would leave us short for Ison, if we wanted to draft another player first.