Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

Interested to know the reasoning for our F2? If the two pick match comes into force it won’t be enough for Walker?

If the AFL does something silly like that, we might need to move one of our 1sts up higher, and a (presumably) high 2nd would help with that.
Alternatively, it gives us another highish pick in a strong draft.

13, 34, 41 for 9 and 43 seems a good option? Crows then probably still offer 16 and points for 13 so they can take Phillipou and you can points farm.

A deal like this is ok for points, and matching both Dean and Ison, but it means we're giving up on getting a second 1st round draft pick this year, so we would have to be able to trade out for a F1.

 

[Stamos]

Carlton looks set to hold its position at picks 9 and 11 for now but has held talks with Adelaide around a trade as they look to bank more draft points to match a bid on father-son and potential top-two pick Cody Walker next year.

The Crows have been weighing up trading pick 16 this year and a future first-round selection for Carlton’s picks 9 and 11 this year.

Hun
Draft Intel: Dons’ obsession could shake up draft order, 20 prospects flying under the radar

That can't possibly be the deal. We would need extras, or we'll miss on Ison, and might have to take a deficit into next year for Dean.

Also says Essendon are trying to move up for Duff-Tytler.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Hun
Draft Intel: Dons’ obsession could shake up draft order, 20 prospects flying under the radar

That can't possibly be the deal. We would need extras, or we'll miss on Ison, and might have to take a deficit into next year for Dean.

Also says Essendon are trying to move up for Duff-Tytler.

Yeah, these reports always focus on the "key components" and neglect to mention any of the peripheral stuff that seems unimportant but is actually critical to getting the deal done.

As much as next year's draft is considered stronger, if Adelaide are prepared to bail on next year to get a couple of top 12 picks this year then they'd need to pay a reasonable price. 16 and a future pick that's probably also in the teens for 9 and 11 makes no sense in isolation.

I imagine a deal like this would also involve Adelaide kicking in their Picks 48 and 55 at a minimum. Assuming Uwland and one of Annable/Patterson attract a bid before Dean, those picks probably come in about 5 places, making their combined value 255pts.

Their 16 probably ends up at 18 by the time we need to match a Dean bid, but our 43 and 54 would come in to 38 and 49 to go with the picks from Adelaide that land at 43 and 50.

Picks 18, 38, 43, 49 and 50 total 1454pts, matches a bid at Pick 7.

Feels like it would still need a second trade with another club to ensure we're covering Ison as well? Not many candidates that tick both important boxes: enough points-relevant picks, and no desire or need to use them on bid matching themselves (ie. Brissy and GC want to accumulate more points, Collingwood and Geelong don't have enough, Essendon don't need more points but won't want to lose their mid second rounders etc.).

I'd go so far as to say it'd only be NM with Picks 25 + 26. But we might be competing with GC and Brisbane.

Or we have to do something a little whacky like trading Sydney's 2027 first rounder for a Pick in the mid 20s.

 

[The Bighouse]

Hun
Draft Intel: Dons’ obsession could shake up draft order, 20 prospects flying under the radar

That can't possibly be the deal. We would need extras, or we'll miss on Ison, and might have to take a deficit into next year for Dean.

Also says Essendon are trying to move up for Duff-Tytler.

All the talk prior was that Duursma was their target to move up.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

The hypothetical with Adelaide is appealing, as long as we get enough points for Dean and Ison....take a speculative late pick (Emmett may not be available, but maybe Heatherton?).

Three 2026 firsts is a strong position given the strong draft and uncertainty around speculative AFL decision making

 

[Stamos]

Yeah, these reports always focus on the "key components" and neglect to mention any of the peripheral stuff that seems unimportant but is actually critical to getting the deal done.

As much as next year's draft is considered stronger, if Adelaide are prepared to bail on next year to get a couple of top 12 picks this year then they'd need to pay a reasonable price. 16 and a future pick that's probably also in the teens for 9 and 11 makes no sense in isolation.

I imagine a deal like this would also involve Adelaide kicking in their Picks 48 and 55 at a minimum. Assuming Uwland and one of Annable/Patterson attract a bid before Dean, those picks probably come in about 5 places, making their combined value 255pts.

Their 16 probably ends up at 18 by the time we need to match a Dean bid, but our 43 and 54 would come in to 38 and 49 to go with the picks from Adelaide that land at 43 and 50.

Picks 18, 38, 43, 49 and 50 total 1454pts, matches a bid at Pick 7.

Feels like it would still need a second trade with another club to ensure we're covering Ison as well? Not many candidates that tick both important boxes: enough points-relevant picks, and no desire or need to use them on bid matching themselves (ie. Brissy and GC want to accumulate more points, Collingwood and Geelong don't have enough, Essendon don't need more points but won't want to lose their mid second rounders etc.).

I'd go so far as to say it'd only be NM with Picks 25 + 26. But we might be competing with GC and Brisbane.

Or we have to do something a little whacky like trading Sydney's 2027 first rounder for a Pick in the mid 20s.

If we were trading both picks to Adelaide, I think they'd have to throw in F2 as well as those later picks, so we could live trade in to match for Ison.
But that really changes the value proposition for them.

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

Hun
Draft Intel: Dons’ obsession could shake up draft order, 20 prospects flying under the radar

That can't possibly be the deal. We would need extras, or we'll miss on Ison, and might have to take a deficit into next year for Dean.

Also says Essendon are trying to move up for Duff-Tytler.

i would take that. I think its very possible adelaide miss finals next year

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

If we draft Harley Barker, I petition for his nickname to be Sid Vicious …

 

[CCurnow3picks]

The hypothetical with Adelaide is appealing, as long as we get enough points for Dean and Ison....take a speculative late pick (Emmett may not be available, but maybe Heatherton?).

Three 2026 firsts is a strong position given the strong draft and uncertainty around speculative AFL decision making

“…Eckerton, Eckerton”…?

You don’t even know who Eckerton is…

Let’s do it anyway …

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

If we draft Harley Barker, I petition for his nickname to be Sid Vicious …


View attachment 2467872
View attachment 2467873

It was bothering me. Thankyou.

 

[Pablito]

Hun
Draft Intel: Dons’ obsession could shake up draft order, 20 prospects flying under the radar

That can't possibly be the deal. We would need extras, or we'll miss on Ison, and might have to take a deficit into next year for Dean.

Also says Essendon are trying to move up for Duff-Tytler.

Likely a second or third rounder coming back our way also.

 

[ctwenty1]

If we draft Harley Barker, I petition for his nickname to be Sid Vicious …


View attachment 2467872
View attachment 2467873

Depending on the generation (or interests) a diffierent Sid Vicious may come to mind

 

[SurreyBlue]

I’d laugh my ass off if Sharp falls to either our pick 9 or 11. Very underrated.

 

[ctwenty1]

I’d laugh my ass off if Sharp falls to either our pick 9 or 11. Very underrated.

reckon crows would come beating down our door if sharp is there at 9

 

[DangerousD]

I wouldn’t mind trading down but to me, we must take more kids than just Dean and Ison, if thats in the teens, 20s or 30s i dont mind, we just need to keep trying to find quality players in positions of need.

 

[Bletch]

View attachment 2467880

Depending on the generation (or interests) a diffierent Sid Vicious may come to mind

Or

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

I’d laugh my ass off if Sharp falls to either our pick 9 or 11. Very underrated.

I reckon the bombers will be all over Sharp with one of their picks.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

I'd be comfortable taking only Dean and Ison in the main draft while stockpiling picks for 2026. We could then promote a rookie to the senior list, which would free up a spot to take someone like Heatherton in the rookie draft if he's still available.

I think we need another KPF on our list, but I'm not convinced there's a candidate worth committing two years to straight away that we could get late in the draft. Taking Heatherton as a rookie lets us assess whether he has the right attributes before making a longer-term investment. We saw with Lemmey that lacking the necessary physicality from day one made it nearly impossible for him to succeed. Quality KPFs are notoriously hard to find with lower picks (key defenders are much easier), so I'd love to see us trade up for CDT if West Coast were willing to deal, though that seems unlikely.

 

[AT97]

Or
View attachment 2467895

Prefer his Jackson lamb portrayal

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Hun
Draft Intel: Dons’ obsession could shake up draft order, 20 prospects flying under the radar

That can't possibly be the deal. We would need extras, or we'll miss on Ison, and might have to take a deficit into next year for Dean.

Also says Essendon are trying to move up for Duff-Tytler.

Could be a bit of a 3 way on the cards, possibly.

The article says that WCE probably wouldn't accept Essendon's offer of 5 and 15 for pick 2 - supposedly want a future 1st in a trade. Hypothetically, if we traded 9 and 11 to Essendon for 6 and a bunch of 2nds, they could then package up 5 and 9 to WCE for pick 2 - which may be more attractive.

Essendon get CDT and pick 11, Carlton get pick 6 and points, WCE end up with picks 5 and 9 as well as their own pick 1.

Although if WCE are hellbent on a future 1st, this all goes out the window. And there's also the risk of the Tiggs placing a bid on Dean, although hopefully we're better placed on who will bid closer to draft nite.

 

[Stamos]

Could be a bit of a 3 way on the cards, possibly.

The article says that WCE probably wouldn't accept Essendon's offer of 5 and 15 for pick 2 - supposedly want a future 1st in a trade. Hypothetically, if we traded 9 and 11 to Essendon for 6 and a bunch of 2nds, they could then package up 5 and 9 to WCE for pick 2 - which may be more attractive.

Essendon get CDT and pick 11, Carlton get pick 6 and points, WCE end up with picks 5 and 9 as well as their own pick 1.

Although if WCE are hellbent on a future 1st, this all goes out the window. And there's also the risk of the Tiggs placing a bid on Dean, although hopefully we're better placed on who will bid closer to draft nite.

The problem with this proposal is we're not guaranteed there's no Dean bid before our pick.

 

[Soapy V]

Speaking with some recruiters and watching some videos it seems a Top 20 with a heap of maybes. No real locks for me. Every player has a lot of question marks. More than most years

This is where testing and interviews really come into it. At the moment I'm not convinced on anyone and why I think a player like Pickett may jump up to 11

 

[katmanblue]

Prefer his Jackson lamb portrayal

The books are top notch

 

[ctwenty1]

The problem with this proposal is we're not guaranteed there's no Dean bid before our pick.

We would then need a strategy around trading that pick 6 if that were to eventuate

We would need to be really keen on one of those early draft picks to go to this level of trouble though

 

[Stamos]

We would then need a strategy around trading that pick 6 if that were to eventuate

We would need to be really keen on one of those early draft picks to go to this level of trouble though

I think a trade with Essendon for 6 would be much more about getting ahead of a Dean bid than really targeting a specific player.