List Mgmt. 2025 List Management

[serial_thrilla]

 

[Tonga Bob]

Toby must be crap anyway if people reckon picks after 33 are worthless I just don’t get it. Unfathomable.

Wouldn't say he's crap but most draft watchers ignore WA players, plaus Toby's got an AC injury so he'll drop because of that

 

[nurries]

Can we petition the club to keep Walls the **** away from trade periods.

All the draft masterclass is undone in the trade period and some

 

[2big2strom]

Can we blame Henry for this as well?

obviously it's Carlton's fault, they must have cursed pick 50 which is why Wallsy threw it away in disgust

 

[Cobbler]

Haven't had this much fun playing the opposing side in a thread for a while.

The other side just wilfully ignoring all the data so they can maintain the rage and cry that we screwed up. I get it, it's fun to be upset sometimes also.

The trade is only diabolical under the assumption that the existing pick value system is accurate. The collective intelligence of the AFL list managers, the draft watchers as well, all are saying that the draft is likely to be below average. Since the draft value index is built upon an average draft, the value of each pick in this upcoming draft has been determined to be less than normal.

We can do some simple mathematics.

Post Allen Compo, difference is as follows:
View attachment 2449653

Now let's assume that the list managers secretely agreed that this draft had five top end talents less than usual, top ten picks for example. That would result in the following calculation:
View attachment 2449655

Suddenly, the before and after are much closer in value.

The specifics of the assumptions made don't matter. All that matters is there is clearly an understanding between list managers that the value of picks in this draft is lower than the pick value index.

Value is determined by the parties making a trade - not by an outside system. As stated yesterday, it will be interesting to see how other trades are valued in the coming days to get more data on this.

What we can say though, is if pick 23 does have less value than a normal pick 23, we have gotten a fantastic deal for Judd McVee.

1) We've assisted a deal to proceed.
2) We've not been the beneficiary of allowing that deal to proceed.

Please, forget values and what picks may become.

Would it have killed the deal if Brisbane or Eagles threw in F3s? I doubt it.

It feels like we only had eyes set on McVee for 23, maintaining a first and everything else got tossed.

You can win around the edges.

We didn't seemingly try and the cake, sprinkles and cherry were all devoured by Brisbane and Eagles to allow them to manipulate the system.

 

[Dirty_banchez]

The trade is fine. You have to remember this is the worst draft class of all time.

Most of the draftees were born in 2007 which was around the time of the GFC. I suspect this event caused a lot of headaches...

Watch out for the Covid draft class in 2038 which will also be the same year as the Y2K38 bug. Wallsy should trade out of that draft provided his computer still works.

 

[Jezzitizle]

Can we petition the club to keep Walls the **** away from trade periods.

All the draft masterclass is undone in the trade period and some

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

From the ABC trade period blog and Dean Bilton

“In my opinion, Freo look to be making very deliberate and specific moves in this trade and draft period.

The goal for the Dockers was to get Judd McVee, have another decent pick to use and ensure they can match a bid for NGA Toby Whan if needed. Tick, tick, tick.

It's also worth keeping in mind that pick 33 will likely blow out into the 40s on draft night, and in this particular draft I don't think that's worth holding up the club's other ambitions.

I can see why some Freo fans aren't happy with this deal (helping the Eagles out a little is probably running some up the wrong way), but the Dockers know what they're doing and they're getting it done.”

TLDR; they think that without 33 there would’ve been a holdup for the deal. We didn’t rate 33 enough to hold the deal up so we put it in.

Sooo to be clear, other clubs clearly thought it was valuable enough to hold things up but we dont so its OK to throw it away?

 

[Paracleet]

Haven't had this much fun playing the opposing side in a thread for a while.

The other side just wilfully ignoring all the data so they can maintain the rage and cry that we screwed up. I get it, it's fun to be upset sometimes also.

The trade is only diabolical under the assumption that the existing pick value system is accurate. The collective intelligence of the AFL list managers, the draft watchers as well, all are saying that the draft is likely to be below average. Since the draft value index is built upon an average draft, the value of each pick in this upcoming draft has been determined to be less than normal.

We can do some simple mathematics.

Post Allen Compo, difference is as follows:
View attachment 2449653

Now let's assume that the list managers secretely agreed that this draft had five top end talents less than usual, top ten picks for example. That would result in the following calculation:
View attachment 2449655

Suddenly, the before and after are much closer in value.

The specifics of the assumptions made don't matter. All that matters is there is clearly an understanding between list managers that the value of picks in this draft is lower than the pick value index.

Value is determined by the parties making a trade - not by an outside system. As stated yesterday, it will be interesting to see how other trades are valued in the coming days to get more data on this.

What we can say though, is if pick 23 does have less value than a normal pick 23, we have gotten a fantastic deal for Judd McVee.

Whatever the points system in use come an actual individual draft and trade period the clubs will be scaling it according to the perceived quality in terms of top talent and depth of talent. So for a sake of an argument if you assume the collective wisdom has this draft with say 0 at pick 35 and the difference in value between the top picks less than normal (weak on top talent and shallow as well) then it makes sense to flick around 40s picks like they don't matter just to facilitate a deal.

Walls should be judged on if the assumptions behind his moves are correct. Melting that he's an idiot and just did it because he's stupid lacks explanatory power. It's also dumb melting this much because in the end it is melting about a third rounder. Equally people shouldn't be defending the trade in isolation, because in isolation it doesn't make much sense.

 

[Bastyy]

It's time that we stop thinking about these trades as "We helped West Coast get a key target and moved down in the draft order and all we got in return was Judd McVee" and instead think of it as "We helped West Coast waste picks on a guy one concussion away from retirement, traded out of the worst draft this side of expansion AND got future All-Australian Half Back Judd McVee"

 

[nurries]

It's time that we stop thinking about these trades as "We helped West Coast get a key target and moved down in the draft order and all we got in return was Judd McVee" and instead think of it as "We helped West Coast waste picks on a guy one concussion away from retirement, traded out of the worst draft this side of expansion AND got future All-Australian Half Back Judd McVee"

And helped them get pick 2 for a washed up player, when that pick 2 is smashing us in a derby in a few years you might think different

 

[Jezzitizle]

Whatever the points system in use come an actual individual draft and trade period the clubs will be scaling it according to the perceived quality in terms of top talent and depth of talent. So for a sake of an argument if you assume the collective wisdom has this draft with say 0 at pick 35 and the difference in value between the top picks less than normal (weak on top talent and shallow as well) then it makes sense to flick around 40s picks like they don't matter just to facilitate a deal.

Walls should be judged on if the assumptions behind his moves are correct. Melting that he's an idiot and just did it because he's stupid lacks explanatory power. It's also dumb melting this much because in the end it is melting about a third rounder. Equally people should be defending the trade in isolation, because in isolation it doesn't make much sense.

 

[MadMac]

Walls shouldn’t get involved until draft week.
Need someone else doing the trade side of things.

Got you bro

 

[mattis117]

1) We've assisted a deal to proceed.
2) We've not been the beneficiary of allowing that deal to proceed.

Please, forget values and what picks may become.

Would it have killed the deal if Brisbane or Eagles threw in F3s? I doubt it.

It feels like we only had eyes set on McVee for 23, maintaining a first and everything else got tossed.

You can win around the edges.

We didn't seemingly try and the cake, sprinkles and cherry were all devoured by Brisbane and Eagles to allow them to manipulate the system.

It is common to take a decent enough deal rather than keep searching for other options that are more difficult to work out.

You're right, we took the deal because it secured McVee now and the excess was palatable.

Clearly we are happy to take one first round pick, Whan, and get McVee and that's it.

From a goals and objectives point of view it is tick, tick, tick.

They have saved time and resources by taking the deal now rather than eek out some small additional value for picks.

No chance of getting an Eagles f3. An Eagles f4 or Brisbane f3 maybe, but that is a pick in 50s next year, so still not worth claiming we've lost a trade over.

 

[go_the_dockers]

View attachment 2449692
Got you bro

Hogan and Lobb - seriously for everything Walls has done, Bell trading in Hogan and Lobb in a super draft is 1000 times worse.

I am 200 times angrier about that trade period, than I am about bringing in Bolton. Anyone suggesting bringing back Bell, should be an instant banned on this board.

 

[One_Wing]

Hogan and Lobb - seriously for everything Walls has done, Bell trading in Hogan and Lobb in a super draft is 1000 times worse.

Pretty sure Bell was pushing hard to make a play for Kelly and it was Ross and Rosich who made the push for Hogan.

 

[Spirit Level]

Does the WAFC have the power to interfere with our trading to help out the shambles down the road?

 

[go_the_dockers]

 

[Bastyy]

And helped them get pick 2 for a washed up player, when that pick 2 is smashing us in a derby in a few years you might think different

I don't think I'm going to lose any sleep over this hypothetical

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Freo trade Reidy for two minor pick swaps because one minor swap wasnt enough but everything after 30 is irrelevant?

Toby Whan is worth getting excited about but in a draft where everything after 30 is irrelevant, he's going to be lucky to even be bid on?

My brain is going to explode

 

[mattis117]

Freo trade Reidy for two minor pick swaps because one minor swap wasnt enough but everything after 30 is irrelevant?

Toby Whan is worth getting excited about but in a draft where everything after 30 is irrelevant, he's going to be lucky to even be bid on?

My brain is going to explode

Isn't this in line with your thinking already? Cognitive dissonance much.

You believe Reidy is worthless, plus we are led to believe that all traded picks are worthless, therefore the value is equal (0).

 

[freo84]

Freo trade Reidy for two minor pick swaps because one minor swap wasnt enough but everything after 30 is irrelevant?

Toby Whan is worth getting excited about but in a draft where everything after 30 is irrelevant, he's going to be lucky to even be bid on?

My brain is going to explode

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Isn't this in line with your thinking already? Cognitive dissonance much.

You believe Reidy is worthless, plus we are led to believe that all traded picks are worthless, therefore the value is equal (0).

It doesnt matter what I think, I didnt do the trade are you saying Carlton chucked in an extra pick swap because they just hate being higher in the draft?

Clearly Freo saw value in moving up a couple of spots and wanted the extra swap.

Man, all your arguments are completely devoid of any logic I'm going to have to actually put you ignore before I lose my mind

 

[Taylor]

How long is Judd McVee's contract with Freo?

 

[Jezzitizle]

It doesnt matter what I think, I didnt do the trade are you saying Carlton chucked in an extra pick swap because they just hate being higher in the draft?

Clearly Freo saw value in moving up a couple of spots and wanted the extra swap.

Man, all your arguments are completely devoid of any logic I'm going to have to actually put you ignore before I lose my mind

Geez mate you are going nuclear, which isn’t really your go in my experience, you ok?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Geez mate you are going nuclear, which isn’t really your go in my experience, you ok?

The only thing that gets me more fired up than horseshit Freo trading is people standing there using completely illogical arguments to justify them with a straight face