List Mgmt. 2026 Trade/FA/Draft thread

[MartinPrince]

this craft of the draft series is good to follow for upcoming prospects

 

[Lampers]

My big worry though is (pending what else we bring in) that further thins out our 'peak age' bracket which is already really poor in terms of where our list stands. We'd want to be bringing in a few 23-26 year olds over the next 2 years IMO.

I guess it comes down to where the club thinks their genuine shot at a flag will fall. If they want to have one last shot with Gawn around then probably hang on to Rivers. If they think it’s post Gawn then maybe invest further into youth if an 18 yo will be 21/22 anyway by the time they think the team will be genuinely contending.

Plus the other thing is if Rivers isn’t a sKing type player, is it much good having him around even if he is mid 20s with 150 games under his belt? This is pure speculation off Rivers being dropped once and sKing being less enthusiastic about Rivers compared to say Kolt.

I don’t reckon Rivers has the endurance sKing wants, and doesn’t make up for it with pace or precision foot skills.

 

[Lord Nev]

I guess it comes down to where the club thinks their genuine shot at a flag will fall. If they want to have one last shot with Gawn around then probably hang on to Rivers. If they think it’s post Gawn then maybe invest further into youth if an 18 yo will be 21/22 anyway by the time they think the team will be genuinely contending.

Plus the other thing is if Rivers isn’t a sKing type player, is it much good having him around even if he is mid 20s with 150 games under his belt? This is pure speculation off Rivers being dropped once and sKing being less enthusiastic about Rivers compared to say Kolt.

I'm not sure that's King philosophy though. Not sure where I heard it or read it, but I remember things about King saying he's not worried about 'topping up' with older players to stay successful because success breeds success. Only have to look at Geelong to see where that philosophy might come from.

I'm not sure you're not reading too much into King's comments either tbh. He just said Rivers is trying to find his best form and then also mentioned the knee niggle he's been carrying. Reckon the Kolt v Rivers comparison might be more about what each player needs too - Kolt needs lots of reassurance whereas maybe Rivers needed to be challenged a bit?

In the end, if they decide to move him on I won't be cracking the sads, but I will be a bit worried about our list demographic which could fall in a hole within a year or two if we don't have that age coverage.

 

[Bluelegs]

Feel like the moment a senior player gets dropped from any team the trade rumours start up. Same thing with Lever last year.

 

[Demon 16]

Feel like the moment a senior player gets dropped from any team the trade rumours start up. Same thing with Lever last year.

He’s been dropped for the first time in a long time, is still young and a decent AFL player, and is working under a new coach.

Add on that he’s a free agent next year and from WA, there’s more to it than that.

West Coast will have a fair amount of cash to splash for 2 year deals.

He is a definite flight risk if he can’t cement himself into the senior team.

 

[Bluelegs]

He’s been dropped for the first time in a long time, is still young and a decent AFL player, and is working under a new coach.

Add on that he’s a free agent next year and from WA, there’s more to it than that.

West Coast will have a fair amount of cash to splash for 2 year deals.

He is a definite flight risk if he can’t cement himself into the senior team.

TBH he should go if that becomes the case.

 

[Demon 16]

TBH he should go if that becomes the case.

I’d prefer he finds some form and Kingy works out how best to use him.

I don’t think we’d be well compensated if we traded (RFA I think?).

 

[Bluelegs]

I’d prefer he finds some form and Kingy works out how best to use him.

I don’t think we’d be well compensated if we traded (RFA I think?).

Sure I’d like that too, but if he can’t find his spot then the best thing for his career would be to go.

 

[PerfectFooty]

Feel like the moment a senior player gets dropped from any team the trade rumours start up. Same thing with Lever last year.

Flagmantle page was on Rivers within the hour. I do think there is some honest barracking for trades that aren't even considered

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Flagmantle page was on Rivers within the hour. I do think there is some honest barracking for trades that aren't even considered

Flagmantle have such an excellent record with the players they spend years barracking for and endlessly harrassing to come home from the second they get drafted to Victoria, it makes sense that they continue to do it.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

What a name lol

Sounds like the old Nintendo cricket names, code for Jeff Farmer.

 

[Scythe]

Sounds like the old Nintendo cricket names, code for Jeff Farmer.

Takes me back

 

[schmuttt]

Been thinking a bit about how we are building the list and I feel like we are trying the Hawthorn model. We've had a bunch of FRPs now but none in the top 5 so we are getting good talent in, but not picking from the cream. We've got some solid senior players still and a star in Kozzy, if I was being critical I think our KPP stocks are a huge worry (Part of the reason I don't want to burn too much capital on Humphrey) and we are praying Windsor/Langford can come on in the middle to supplement Kozzy long term.

Such an interesting watch how we go over the next two years in regards to decisions on the list, you look at teams stacked with u23 talent like Eagles/Tigers/North (And sadly Suns) and it feels like it will be bloody hard to compete with them with what we've got long term. Games of footy are won by teams not individuals, but there is going to still be that Tassie talent drain and I'm just scared it will hurt the part of our build when it is most critical we get quality in.

 

[Topkent]

Been thinking a bit about how we are building the list and I feel like we are trying the Hawthorn model. We've had a bunch of FRPs now but none in the top 5 so we are getting good talent in, but not picking from the cream. We've got some solid senior players still and a star in Kozzy, if I was being critical I think our KPP stocks are a huge worry (Part of the reason I don't want to burn too much capital on Humphrey) and we are praying Windsor/Langford can come on in the middle to supplement Kozzy long term.

Such an interesting watch how we go over the next two years in regards to decisions on the list, you look at teams stacked with u23 talent like Eagles/Tigers/North (And sadly Suns) and it feels like it will be bloody hard to compete with them with what we've got long term. Games of footy are won by teams not individuals, but there is going to still be that Tassie talent drain and I'm just scared it will hurt the part of our build when it is most critical we get quality in.

This is the shit part of AFL drafting at the moment aswell, there's no point is finishing 7-13 because it's the death valley of drafting, going to low could get a coach sacked and hurt progression and going to high gives you boring to trade. I do think best way is trying to ease out senior players for picks slowly so we can double up selections

 

[JP2]

I think the idea that you win premierships by stocking up on early draft-picks by "bottoming-out" has been pretty much discredited over the past decade. Arguably, we're pretty much the only team that seem to have managed it during that time. I'd argue that nailing later picks, developing the talent you have, and attracting talent through FA and trades (difficult to do when you're stuck to the bottom for a while) is far more important these days.

These are the profiles of the teams who have won the last few flags (did this through ChatGPT, so the usual disclaimers regarding accuracy apply):

Richmond 2020:

Top 10 picks: 4 (Vlaustuin, Martin, Cotchin, Grimes)
ND >50 / rookie picks: 7
Traded / FA: 4

Melbourne 2021:

Top 10 picks: 5 (Oliver, Petracca, Brayshaw, Jackson, Salem)
ND >50 / rookie picks: 2 (3 if you include JJ)
Traded / FA: 5

Geelong 2022:

Top 10 picks: 1 (Selwood)
ND >50 / rookie picks: 9
Traded / FA: 6

Collingwood 2023:

Top 10 picks: 2 (Pendlebury, De Goey - I'm excluding the F/S picks Moore and Daicos)
ND >50 / rookie picks: 5
Traded / FA: 8

Brisbane 2024:

Top 10 picks: 2 (Rayner, McCluggage)
ND >50 / rookie picks: 4
Traded / FA: 8

I think the best list-strategy is just to try to assemble the best list you can from year-to-year without mortgaging your future (i.e. don't trade-out high-draft picks for older players when it's clear you're not in contention) and then target FA / trade options aggressively once you're in the window. Yeah, you need some top-end talent from the draft, but they'll arrive through the natural peaks and troughs that a team goes through as a matter of course (unless you're Geelong). But trying to maximise the number of high picks you receive by cutting deep into the list and trading out or delisting serviceable older players because they "won't be part of our next flag" has - to my knowledge - never really worked as a list-management strategy in the FA era.