20th AFL Team

[Canberra Pear]

Next week, the ABS will release the latest data for City populations.

Based on the State population data released today, it seems like the population disparity between the big 6 cities is breaking further away from the cities without a team. That includes leaving Tasmania behind.

Population projections are always an interesting one, but it never looks good for Tasmania (or SA for that matter). The gap just grows.

I'm personally supportive of a Tassie team, but it's a good thing Tasmania is getting their team now, because their case just gets weaker over time as the gaps grow.

Whereas Canberra will grow about 27% faster than the rest of Australia over the next 45 years. Canberra's case is already pretty strong, but it only gets stronger.

Edit: though perhaps a Canberra team should not be a new team, but a relocation…

We'll take the Eagles. They stole our territory colours and the wedge-tail is the Ngunnawal totem. Just makes sense.

 

[Bjo187]

With the latest ABS population release today, the AFL shouldn’t worry itself with a 20th team, they should focus their resources into getting all those international immigrants into Aussie Rules.

National, state and territory population, June 2025

Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia and its states and territories

www.abs.gov.au

View attachment 2255799

For as many people that live in some of the nominated locations for a 20th team, like ACT, NT, Newcastle, there is a similar number of people moving to Australia each year or every two years. Focus resources into getting these people and their future generations passionate about the existing teams.
View attachment 2255803

Similarly, instead of a 3rd WA or SA team, focus the resources into getting more attention for the WAFL and SANFL and growing the second tier of Aussie Rules.

They're focusing on this now but were a bit slow on the uptake.

Australia has had more immigration than the entire populations of the N.T, ACT and Tasmania combined in just the past couple of years, which some may say is way too much.

I do wonder how they do population projections, like how do they figure out Canberra will grow so much quicker than say Tasmania. Is it just going off history or what?

 

[Purple Suit]

Population projections are always an interesting one, but it never looks good for Tasmania (or SA for that matter). The gap just grows.

I'm personally supportive of a Tassie team, but it's a good thing Tasmania is getting their team now, because their case just gets weaker over time as the gaps grow.

Whereas Canberra will grow about 27% faster than the rest of Australia over the next 45 years. Canberra's case is already pretty strong, but it only gets stronger.



We'll take the Eagles. They stole our territory colours and the wedge-tail is the Ngunnawal totem. Just makes sense.

Finally,
We agree on something

 

[Aussie in exile]

With the latest ABS population release today, the AFL shouldn’t worry itself with a 20th team, they should focus their resources into getting all those international immigrants into Aussie Rules.

National, state and territory population, June 2025

Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia and its states and territories

www.abs.gov.au

View attachment 2255799

For as many people that live in some of the nominated locations for a 20th team, like ACT, NT, Newcastle, there is a similar number of people moving to Australia each year or every two years. Focus resources into getting these people and their future generations passionate about the existing teams.
View attachment 2255803

Similarly, instead of a 3rd WA or SA team, focus the resources into getting more attention for the WAFL and SANFL and growing the second tier of Aussie Rules.

Other sports would be thinking the same

 

[Coolangatta]

An increasing disparity makes it even harder for a team in the smaller cities to generate enough revenue to compete with the healthier existing clubs. That might be similar to the weaker Melbourne clubs, but do we really want more struggling clubs?

I’m not sure a club with a whole city to itself is going to struggle as much as a club in a city with eight other teams, footy state or not.

Why can’t we have small, niche clubs that are financially viable?

Let’s face it, Gold Coast, Tasmania, and Canberra, if they ever come in, are not going to be a Collingwood or a Sydney, but they don’t need to be, as long as they are viable.

There’s much to be said of Perth, Adelaide and in the future, Brisbane being underrepresented, but I’d rather see expansion spots go to new cities that don’t have representation if they’ve got a case for it.

 

[Bjo187]

I’m not sure a club with a whole city to itself is going to struggle as much as a club in a city with eight other teams, footy state or not.

Why can’t we have small, niche clubs that are financially viable?

Let’s face it, Gold Coast, Tasmania, and Canberra, if they ever come in, are not going to be a Collingwood or a Sydney, but they don’t need to be, as long as they are viable.

There’s much to be said of Perth, Adelaide and in the future, Brisbane being underrepresented, but I’d rather see expansion spots go to new cities that don’t have representation if they’ve got a case for it.

With a one city or state team you're also guaranteed that club will grow in size for eternity, as they have the population growth of their area all to themselves and a monopoly on the market. Different to in Victoria, where the population might grow 1 million people, but only 10k of those end up North fans (as an example).

 

[Coolangatta]

With a one city or state team you're also guaranteed that club will grow in size for eternity, as they have the population growth of their area all to themselves and a monopoly on the market. Different to in Victoria, where the population might grow 1 million people, but only 10k of those end up North fans (as an example).

Exactly.

If no Vic club relocates, I’d be going for Canberra as team 20.

In the future, I’d be having a crack at Sunshine Coast, Newcastle, and Auckland. Best future cities that have a shot IMO.

Again, without relocations happening, that’s potentially 23 teams.

The 24th I’d leave to last and probably go a Darwin 7 Cairns 4 split side.

Alice Springs could get a game in Gather Round or just get a pre season game.

If you could squeeze out two Vic clubs to the northern states then you could have WA3 and SA3 but oh well.

 

[RedV3x]

In the future, I’d be having a crack at Sunshine Coast, Newcastle, and Auckland. Best future cities that have a shot IMO.

I agree, but it is pointless even mentioning these alternatives until the AFL starts (or revisits) with some basic interest - intra-club football, inter-club football graduating to a full AFL game whilst tackling grassroots in parallel.

 

[Badger17]

In the future, I’d be having a crack at Sunshine Coast, Newcastle, and Auckland. Best future cities that have a shot IMO.

I wouldn't touch NZ until all the expansion clubs in Australia are stable and reasonably self reliant, which will take at least a few decades. I can't see Sky Sport being interested enough to make an NZ team worth the AFL's while either, and they have an effective monopoly at the moment. So you'd have to wait until there's more competition in the sports broadcasting/streaming market over there before an AFL's likely to be viable in NZ anyway.

Whatever people in the bubble here might believe, Newcastle and the Sunshine Coast would be very risky. Imagine regions similar in population to Canberra, but with a much, much lower density of Aussie Rules fans.

Sunshine Coast I could maybe see happening sometime in the long term, but RL is their religion in the Hunter, and the Knights is the church where they worship. You'd have to do a lot of ground work to get Newcastle to a position where an AFL side was a realistic chance or succeeding.

Newcastle wouldn't be dissimilar to putting an NRL team in Geelong or Tasmania. Yeah it could be done, but it'd be risky and expensive. A third team in Sydney, based North of the bridge, would be much more realistic than Newcastle. You'd run the risk of cannibalising the Swans support though.

 

[RedV3x]

I wouldn't touch NZ until all the expansion clubs in Australia are stable and reasonably self reliant,

I would start immediately so as not to lose more of the investment in N.Z.

I can't see Sky Sport being interested enough to make an NZ team worth the AFL's while

Well eveyrthing was developing nicely before Covid

Newcastle and the Sunshine Coast would be very risky

Without the proper approach and investment.

Imagine regions similar in population to Canberra, but with a much, much lower density of Aussie Rules fans.

that's why most people are proposing Canberra as 20th AFL team.

Sunshine Coast I could maybe see happening sometime in the long term,

With the proper approach and investment.

You'd have to do a lot of ground work to get Newcastle to a position where an AFL side was a realistic chance or succeeding.

No arguiment there.

Newcastle wouldn't be dissimilar to putting an NRL team in Geelong

Newscastle has a strong history in Australian Football and a strong AFL.

A third team in Sydney, based North of the bridge, would be much more realistic than Newcastle. You'd run the risk of cannibalising the Swans support though.

North Sydney is the Sydney Swans.

 

[Thailander]

Similarly, instead of a 3rd WA or SA team, focus the resources into getting more attention for the WAFL and SANFL and growing the second tier of Aussie Rules.

Yeesssssss !

Would love to see more love given to the state leagues, but I would love an eventual evolution into a legitmate AFL 2nd division (no pro-reg) with selected clubs from the state leagues joining permanently.

Keep the AFL at 20 clubs with Canberra joining in last - and then develop the 2nd division with clubs like West Perth, Port Melbourne, Norwood, etc.

 

[RedV3x]

Would love to see more love given to the state leagues, but I would love an eventual evolution into a legitmate AFL 2nd division (no pro-reg) with selected clubs from the state leagues joining permanently.

Keep the AFL at 20 clubs with Canberra joining in last - and then develop the 2nd division with clubs like West Perth, Port Melbourne, Norwood, etc.

OR... have a playoff between the state premiers for a spot at AFL

 

[Coolangatta]

OR... have a playoff between the state premiers for a spot at AFL

That would be cool.

Could bring back the NEAFL so you’d have WAFL/SANFL/VFL/NEAFL fighting for one or even two spots.

Fitzroy could return to the VFL as the Gorillas.

If there wasn’t a big gap between the state leagues and AFL this would already be possible to have some relegation and promotion.

As it stands, the AFL may need to eventually transition into a conference system which will be met with resistance.

I don’t think a lot of people would boycott watching the AFL
because of it, though.

 

[Badger17]

I would start immediately so as not to lose more of the investment in N.Z.



Well eveyrthing was developing nicely before Covid



Without the proper approach and investment.



that's why most people are proposing Canberra as 20th AFL team.


With the proper approach and investment.



No arguiment there.


Newscastle has a strong history in Australian Football and a strong AFL.



North Sydney is the Sydney Swans.

Aussie Rules presence in NZ is extremely niche.

It basically exists as a sport for leftover highschoolers who couldn't make it in the RU and/or RL, soccer, or basketball team, at a relative handful of schools, and glorified park football leagues. It's only presence in NZ's mainstream culture is through cultural exchange with Australia, i.e. they see it referenced in TV, movies, music, etc from Australia.

It'd be ambitious to the point of bordering on insanity to seriously consider an NZ AFL club before NZ is capable of producing enough players to largely fill out a reasonably competitive team, and NZ Aussie Rules is multiple generations and tens, potentially hundreds, of millions of dollars of investment from that point. Frankly, even with the best expertise and all that investment, it may never take off in NZ.

That's without getting into the state of sports broadcasting in NZ either. You'd imagine with the growth of streaming that that will pass long before the AFL is in a position to seriously consider expanding to NZ, but then again, people have been predicting that Sky Sport's monopoly would be broken "soon" for 30 years, so who knows how things will turn out on that front.


No offence to our Novocastrian friends, but Newcastle's "strong history in Australian football" isn't much of a history if you're simply referring to the fact that Aussie Rules has existed in the Hunter in some form since the 1800s. That's true of pretty much everywhere in Australia, and there's a difference between surviving and thriving, and Newcastle/Hunter Aussie Rules has definitely been doing more the prior for most of it's existence.

If we're talking about history, then RU's history in Newcastle is much deeper and richer than Aussie Rules, and nobody has ever seriously considered them for a spot in Super Rugby and they've been incapable of sustaining a side in higher competitions such as the Shute Shield. That should really tell you something about how hard the Newcastle nut will be to crack.

The reality is that Newcastle is a relatively small place where RL absolutely dominants. If you were splitting the sports market share into percentages RL would comfortably control more than 70% of Newcastle. That leaves little wiggly room for competition in a market with a population of about 500k, and it shows in the fact that every professional sports team other than the Knights has consistently struggled or quickly folded.

On North Sydney; to make it clear I'm not advocating for an AFL side in North Sydney, simply saying that I think it's more realistic than a Newcastle side. I also stated that it'd risk cannibalising the Swans support for a reason, but I can definitely envision futures where the Swans dominant the Eastern Suburbs and Inner West, GWS controls Western Sydney, and a third team sets up shop in the North. Again, I'm not necessarily saying that that should happen, only that it could, and it'd be a safer bet than a Newcastle side any time in the foreseeable future.

 

[Coolangatta]

Aussie Rules presence in NZ is extremely niche.

It basically exists as a sport for leftover highschoolers who couldn't make it in the RU and/or RL, soccer, or basketball team, at a relative handful of schools, and glorified park football leagues. It's only presence in NZ's mainstream culture is through cultural exchange with Australia, i.e. they see it referenced in TV, movies, music, etc from Australia.

It'd be ambitious to the point of bordering on insanity to seriously consider an NZ AFL club before NZ is capable of producing enough players to largely fill out a reasonably competitive team, and NZ Aussie Rules is multiple generations and tens, potentially hundreds, of millions of dollars of investment from that point. Frankly, even with the best expertise and all that investment, it may never take off in NZ.

That's without getting into the state of sports broadcasting in NZ either. You'd imagine with the growth of streaming that that will pass long before the AFL is in a position to seriously consider expanding to NZ, but then again, people have been predicting that Sky Sport's monopoly would be broken "soon" for 30 years, so who knows how things will turn out on that front.


No offence to our Novocastrian friends, but Newcastle's "strong history in Australian football" isn't much of a history if you're simply referring to the fact that Aussie Rules has existed in the Hunter in some form since the 1800s. That's true of pretty much everywhere in Australia, and there's a difference between surviving and thriving, and Newcastle/Hunter Aussie Rules has definitely been doing more the prior for most of it's existence.

If we're talking about history, then RU's history in Newcastle is much deeper and richer than Aussie Rules, and nobody has ever seriously considered them for a spot in Super Rugby and they've been incapable of sustaining a side in higher competitions such as the Shute Shield. That should really tell you something about how hard the Newcastle nut will be to crack.

The reality is that Newcastle is a relatively small place where RL absolutely dominants. If you were splitting the sports market share into percentages RL would comfortably control more than 70% of Newcastle. That leaves little wiggly room for competition in a market with a population of about 500k, and it shows in the fact that every professional sports team other than the Knights has consistently struggled or quickly folded.

On North Sydney; to make it clear I'm not advocating for an AFL side in North Sydney, simply saying that I think it's more realistic than a Newcastle side. I also stated that it'd risk cannibalising the Swans support for a reason, but I can definitely envision futures where the Swans dominant the Eastern Suburbs and Inner West, GWS controls Western Sydney, and a third team sets up shop in the North. Again, I'm not necessarily saying that that should happen, only that it could, and it'd be a safer bet than a Newcastle side any time in the foreseeable future.

Do you think the AFL will ever go beyond 20 teams and if so, where do you think they might go? Where would you look at expanding to after Canberra?

 

[RedV3x]

Aussie Rules presence in NZ is extremely niche.

You seem to know nothing about AFL in N.Z.

No offence to our Novocastrian friends, but Newcastle's "strong history in Australian football" isn't much of a history if you're simply referring to the fact that Aussie Rules has existed in the Hunter in some form since the 1800s.

Newcastle has a "strong history in Australian Football" plus a strong Australian Football league.
Why did you chop out the latter ?

On North Sydney; to make it clear I'm not advocating for an AFL side in North Sydney,

Well we've got that cleared up.

I also stated that it'd risk cannibalising the Swans support for a reason,

but " I'm not advocating for an AFL side in North Sydney" so that leaves everybody confused.

I'm not necessarily saying that that should happen, only that it could,

so in effect you're saying nothing in a round about way.

 

[Coolangatta]

Anyone know what this says?

NT steps up bid for Team 20

 

[Canberra Pear]

Anyone know what this says?

NT steps up bid for Team 20

I read it the other day (sorry, can't remember how I got past the paywall). It was just about them having 10 different sites a stadium could go. Didn't add much.

 

[Thailander]

Anyone know what this says?

NT steps up bid for Team 20

The more I look into it, the less convinced I am that Canberra will secure the AFL’s 20th license. The league has invested heavily in the GWS-Canberra partnership, and establishing a brand-new franchise in the ACT would seem like a step backward.

Instead, I believe the AFL will look to expand into a new frontier after awarding Tasmania the 19th license. My bet is on New Zealand.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The more I look into it, the less convinced I am that Canberra will secure the AFL’s 20th license. The league has invested heavily in the GWS-Canberra partnership, and establishing a brand-new franchise in the ACT would seem like a step backward.

Instead, I believe the AFL will look to expand into a new frontier after awarding Tasmania the 19th license. My bet is on New Zealand.

I love you sometimes TigerLaird, always good for a laugh.

I'm not confident on Canberra getting the 20th licence either, but it definitely won't be NZ.

But you are somewhat right. I do think the Giants are our biggest hurdle.

But skipping Canberra because of the Goants would be a massive mistake. It will piss off a lot of fans here and they'll lose support for the Giants. I know I'm not the only one that'll cancel my membership if the Giants prevent us getting that licence.

The Giants are also holding back what could be for AFL in Canberra. An AFL team here could genuinely be the biggest team in town. That won't happen for a part-time FIFO team.

 

[Badger17]

You seem to know nothing about AFL in N.Z.

I'm well aware of the state of Aussie Rules in NZ, you're just uncomfortable with the fact that objective reality doesn't conform to your world view.

Newcastle has a "strong history in Australian Football" plus a strong Australian Football league.
Why did you chop out the latter ?

Because it's not particularly strong.

The AFL Hunter Central Coast is a bush league. Nothing wrong with that, but let's not pretend it's evidence that Newcastle could support an AFL side.

Only one seniors club in the AFLHCC is from Newcastle proper anyway. You can push it to four if you include Lake Macquarie, but you'd be reaching.

Well we've got that cleared up.



but " I'm not advocating for an AFL side in North Sydney" so that leaves everybody confused.



so in effect you're saying nothing in a round about way.

Nah, you're the only one that's confused mate.

 

[Badger17]

Do you think the AFL will ever go beyond 20 teams and if so, where do you think they might go? Where would you look at expanding to after Canberra?

Assuming continued growth I think it's inevitable that the AFL will expand beyond 20 teams given time, but where those next clubs will come from isn't clear as far as I'm concerned.

I can't see the AFL expanding beyond 20 teams before roughly 2050 at the earliest, and outside of arguably Canberra, there aren't currently any obvious gaps in the Australian market that could support an AFL side. A lot can change in 25 years as well, and with huge demographic change, instability both in the region and globally, and streaming making international sport's content more and more accessible, I wouldn't be surprised if the Australian professional sport's market goes through a period of significant change over the coming decades.

I think all of Canberra, third teams in the Perth, Adelaide, and the Sydney metro area, and a second Brisbane team are all more a matter of when, not if, but I can't see most of those being in a position to be teams 20-22. Outside of that I think there're too many variables to even attempt a prediction that would have any accuracy.

In my own personal fantasyland where concerns like financial viability are no concern, I'd really like to see the AFL have representation in every state and territory, and push for local derbies and rivalries in as many cities as possible.

 

[RedV3x]

I'm well aware of the state of Aussie Rules in NZ,

You don't seem to be the aware of developments prior to covid hitting.
like AFL games being played and participants up to 30k to35k.

you're just uncomfortable with the fact that objective reality doesn't conform to your world view.

I'm uncomfortable that the AFL may have wasted all that investment.

Because it's not particularly strong.

So from nothing to "not particularly strong.

The AFL Hunter Central Coast is a bush league.

The Newcastle AFL is a combination of Newcastle clubs, outer Newcastle clubs, Central Coast clubsand nearby towns - certainly not a "bush league".

let's not pretend it's evidence that Newcastle could support an AFL side.

Not ATM, but there is absolutely no reason why Newcastle couldn't support an AFL side
with the right investment.

 

[RedV3x]

Assuming continued growth I think it's inevitable that the AFL will expand beyond 20 teams given time

There are major disadvantages in expanding the number of AFL teams past 20.
IMO mergers, relocations, time share and conferences will be seriously looked at before simple expansion.

but where those next clubs will come from isn't clear as far as I'm concerned.

It's not clear, that's why people have suggested that the AFL start returning to their pre-Covid designs.

there aren't currently any obvious gaps in the Australian market that could support an AFL side.

But there are plenty of potential targets in the Australian market that could support an AFL side.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Australian professional sport's market goes through a period of significant change over the coming decades.

All it would take is the removal of anti-siphoning legislation to be removed and then they'd be no reason for FTA.

I think all of Canberra, third teams in the Perth, Adelaide, and the Sydney metro area, and a second Brisbane team are all more a matter of when, not if,

What's preventing that is the number of teams in the AFL.
It also depends on what model you're aiming for - super clubs or boutique clubs.
ATM the AFL consists of some Melbourne super clubs, powerful interstate clubs and lesser clubs.
Adding new boutique clubs makes it hard for their supporters to enjoy success.

I'd really like to see the AFL have representation in every state and territory, and push for local derbies and rivalries in as many cities as possible.

So you'd love the Cocos Island Crabs.
No, I'd really like to see the AFL have representation in every large city - it makes for a lot more sense.
That reminds me in that I was listening to the ABC sports roundup when the commentator said " and now for the NOT the national rugby league". !!

 

[speedpeck23]

With the new 63k seat Brisbane Stadium confirmed today...the odds of a Queensland team being the 20th AFL club has dramatically shortened. Pity they weren't included in the survey for this thread.