20th AFL Team

[MelbourneGWS]

With the new 63k seat Brisbane Stadium confirmed today...the odds of a Queensland team being the 20th AFL club has dramatically shortened. Pity they weren't included in the survey for this thread.

I certainly think Brisbane 2 (with possibly some regular games in the Sunshine Coast) are in strong contention if the AFL expands to 22 Teams. But for team 20, I think it’s between WA3 and Canberra, with Brisbane 2 and NT/NQ behind these 2 teams. Whilst some here are bullish on Canberra as Team 20, I think in end the AFL will take the “safer” option (when short term rather than long term is considered) and go for WA3.

 

[Run n Spread]

Population projections are always an interesting one, but it never looks good for Tasmania (or SA for that matter). The gap just grows.

I'm personally supportive of a Tassie team, but it's a good thing Tasmania is getting their team now, because their case just gets weaker over time as the gaps grow.

Whereas Canberra will grow about 27% faster than the rest of Australia over the next 45 years. Canberra's case is already pretty strong, but it only gets stronger.



We'll take the Eagles. They stole our territory colours and the wedge-tail is the Ngunnawal totem. Just makes sense.

Population figures are not enough in of themselves.
You need to look at where the growth is coming from. Birth rate in some places is below 1.5 so it's not suddenly 3rd generation types wishing for a team. It's recent immigrants with footy as their not first choice option who you need resources converting.
There is still an untapped choice to expand and a ready made market.
NT still remains the obvious choice

 

[Canberra Pear]

With the new 63k seat Brisbane Stadium confirmed today...the odds of a Queensland team being the 20th AFL club has dramatically shortened. Pity they weren't included in the survey for this thread.

I really don't get how people think this new stadium shortens the odds of a 20th team. If anything, it lengthens them.

The Gabba has 37k seats. The new stadium has 63k. That's 26k new seats.

That's already the equivalent of adding a new team. When the Suns joined in 2011, capacity in SEQ expanded by 25k. In 2032, it'll expand by pretty much the same.

You're not going to add a team at a similar time that you add all that capacity.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Population figures are not enough in of themselves.
You need to look at where the growth is coming from. Birth rate in some places is below 1.5 so it's not suddenly 3rd generation types wishing for a team. It's recent immigrants with footy as their not first choice option who you need resources converting.
There is still an untapped choice to expand and a ready made market.
NT still remains the obvious choice

That's all well and good if you have the base population to start with.

Darwin still needs the population growth to catch up.

So as it stands, the NT remains in no way the obvious choice.

 

[Bjo187]

Interesting the Rna close by is being redeveloped to a 20k stadium. That could be used for a Brisbane 2 team for smaller games. I agree with Canberra pear that a bigger stadium fills the need of afl growth and a new club would look tiny in that stadium. But if they could use the Rna and then the Olympic stadium only a few times a year it might be desirable.

I still like Canberra and w.a 3 as well, but north Brisbane isn't far behind and might close the gap by 2032.

Regardless, the afl have to portray they have 3 or 4 options, even if they already have a preference, as this will draw out competition and government funding for the new club. I heard them say cricket will be played in McKay and cairns if it's in the Olympics, so those north Queensland AFL stadiums might get an upgraded too, which might also assist a northern Australia bid.

 

[loco3]

Would a hypothetical team run at a loss if they played in such a big stadium? If the stadium is government owned, surely the afl can negotiate a favourable agreement with the qld government. I’d assume the government would like the new stadium to be utilised, even if the crowds are not fantastic. The AFL draws pretty good travelling fan numbers and I’d imagine people would be keen for an excuse for to visit the new stadium.

The team could play bigger clubs at the ground (say 5 per year initially) with the others being played at a smaller stadium. There are lots of options the afl could consider. This new stadium is game changing even if it doesn’t fit a small club initially.

The NRL must be reeling that the afl get gifted a Olympic quality stadium…

 

[Canberra Pear]

Interesting the Rna close by is being redeveloped to a 20k stadium.

I saw that bit about the RNA. I reckon that'll be a good option for the Lions' AFLW team down the track. Much more central than Springfield.

That could be used for a Brisbane 2 team for smaller games. I agree with Canberra pear that a bigger stadium fills the need of afl growth and a new club would look tiny in that stadium. But if they could use the Rna and then the Olympic stadium only a few times a year it might be desirable.

I think a RNA will help for a second team down the track, but the other issue with the expanded stadium is that it mops up any pent up demand. You want a new team as demand for the Lions is overflowing. Even if they played at a smaller stadium, you're chopping any new team off at the knees introducing them at the same time the Lions double their capacity.

I think it could help down the track with a second team, but the same time as the new stadium isn't the time for a new team.

SEQ added 25k seats in 2011. Another 25k seats added in 2032. 2050s seems the right time to add another. SEQ3 could be in the prime seat for Team 21.

 

[Coolangatta]

SEQ added 25k seats in 2011. Another 25k seats added in 2032. 2050s seems the right time to add another. SEQ3 could be in the prime seat for Team 21.

You would think so, the question is whether it should be Brisbane or the Sunshine Coast.

The latter adds something new and it could be good to get in before the NRL do, as you’ve suggested, but an over demand for Brisbane and a world class stadium which we know the AFL loves could tip the scale in their favour.

And I think two teams each in the major cities would be a nice balance. A lot of people say put another in Perth but I’d be looking at the South West in 30-50 years if I was going to add a 3rd WA side.

 

[speedpeck23]

I really don't get how people think this new stadium shortens the odds of a 20th team. If anything, it lengthens them.

The Gabba has 37k seats. The new stadium has 63k. That's 26k new seats.

That's already the equivalent of adding a new team. When the Suns joined in 2011, capacity in SEQ expanded by 25k. In 2032, it'll expand by pretty much the same.

You're not going to add a team at a similar time that you add all that capacity.

It will be a 63,000 seat State of the Art Stadium...there will be a huge incentive to have it used every weekend. 3 teams in SEQ increases the likelihood that at least one of them will be going well most seasons. This keeps AFL in the headlines. Queensland is a critical location for AFL. They have a good chance to be directly competitive with NRL...not like Sydney which owns NRL and has 10 clubs so the publicity for NRL will always dominate.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It will be a 63,000 seat State of the Art Stadium...there will be a huge incentive to have it used every weekend. 3 teams in SEQ increases the likelihood that at least one of them will be going well most seasons. This keeps AFL in the headlines. Queensland is a critical location for AFL. They have a good chance to be directly competitive with NRL...not like Sydney which owns NRL and has 10 clubs so the publicity for NRL will always dominate.

Definitely incentive to use it more than 11 games a year. Can see clubs selling games to the Lions like North are doing in the west this year. Collingwood have already spoken about selling games to Queensland.

But you're already increasing capacity in Brisbane by 70% with this new stadium. Adding a new team using that stadium increases capacity by 3.4 times.

It's just too much of a jump at once. It's not viable. Gotta be at least 15-20 years between the two.

 

[Thailander]

It will be a 63,000 seat State of the Art Stadium...there will be a huge incentive to have it used every weekend. 3 teams in SEQ increases the likelihood that at least one of them will be going well most seasons. This keeps AFL in the headlines. Queensland is a critical location for AFL. They have a good chance to be directly competitive with NRL...not like Sydney which owns NRL and has 10 clubs so the publicity for NRL will always dominate.

There will be a 3rd QLD team before a sole-ACT team for sure. Placing my bets.

 

[Canberra Pear]

There will be a 3rd QLD team before a sole-ACT team for sure. Placing my bets.

I wish this was an actual market on a betting site. Would make some decent cash betting on Canberra before Qld3.

 

[Thailander]

I wish this was an actual market on a betting site. Would make some decent cash betting on Canberra before Qld3.

Ha! Manifest it all you want but it will never happen!

If Canberra legitimately becomes the 20th team or before WA3 or QLD3 I will buy a PAFC membership. But it'll NEVA happen!! Ha!

 

[Canberra Pear]

Ha! Manifest it all you want but it will never happen!

If Canberra legitimately becomes the 20th team or before WA3 or QLD3 I will buy a PAFC membership. But it'll NEVA happen!! Ha!

I need to bookmark this post. I'll be holding you to it .

 

[Badger17]

I don't really see the point in continuing to interact with a person who's goal is just to dishonestly deconstruct and misrepresent everything I say, but I will respond to the quotes below.

The Newcastle AFL is a combination of Newcastle clubs, outer Newcastle clubs, Central Coast clubsand nearby towns - certainly not a "bush league".

What you've described there is the definition of a bush league lol.

Oh and it's Newcastle club, singular, and by "outer Newcastle" you really mean Port Macquarie. . . Mate, you're in a bad place when you're knowingly bending the truth to "win" a "debate" on an internet forum.

So you'd love the Cocos Island Crabs.
No, I'd really like to see the AFL have representation in every large city - it makes for a lot more sense.
That reminds me in that I was listening to the ABC sports roundup when the commentator said " and now for the NOT the national rugby league". !!

No, I was thinking more along the lines of a pyramid with P&R, teams anywhere that can support them finding their level in that pyramid, and potentially even localised derbies in places like Geelong.

But again, I'm well aware why that will never happen and of the reasons why it isn't feasible or realistic.

 

[RedV3x]

I don't really see the point in continuing to interact with a person who's goal is just to dishonestly deconstruct and misrepresent everything I say,

I honestly just want to proove that you're a nutter - no dishonesty involved at all.
What is the N.T. but one big "bush league".
You're entitled to your opinion, but really it's ridiculous and laughable.

 

[kranger]

ABS today released the latest ‘Regional’ population data. So last week was States, this week Regional means Cities.

Regional population, 2023-24 financial year

Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia's capital cities and regions

www.abs.gov.au

Someone has already updated Wikipedia which is great, as the ABs website is not great at looking at cities other than the 8 capitals.

List of cities in Australia by population - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Things I noticed, based on the last 10 years growth rate.

In 10 years time, both Newcastle and Canberra will reach 600,000. One year later Canberra (including Queanbeyan) will overtake Newcastle and become the 7th largest city in Australia. The largest without an AFL team.

In 10 years time, Sunshine Coast will have 525,000 residents, and is the fastest growing Region in Australia, just beating Geelong.

Darwin is small, and not growing much.

New South Wales and Queensland (outside of SEQ) are growing slow.

SEQ (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba) has 4m residents.

In 10 years time, the population of the big 5 will be:
Melbourne 6.1m
Sydney 5.8m
SEQ 4.8m
Perth 2.8m
Adelaide 1.6m
Being mindful that Sydney excludes the nearby Wollongong, Central Coast and Newcastle, which would add another 1.2m onto the general catchment area (maybe exclude Newcastle, it’s a bit further away).

 

[Canberra Pear]

ABS today released the latest ‘Regional’ population data. So last week was States, this week Regional means Cities.

Regional population, 2023-24 financial year

Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia's capital cities and regions

www.abs.gov.au

Someone has already updated Wikipedia which is great, as the ABs website is not great at looking at cities other than the 8 capitals.

List of cities in Australia by population - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

View attachment 2263571

Things I noticed, based on the last 10 years growth rate.

In 10 years time, both Newcastle and Canberra will reach 600,000. One year later Canberra (including Queanbeyan) will overtake Newcastle and become the 7th largest city in Australia. The largest without an AFL team.

In 10 years time, Sunshine Coast will have 525,000 residents, and is the fastest growing Region in Australia, just beating Geelong.

Darwin is small, and not growing much.

New South Wales and Queensland (outside of SEQ) are growing slow.

SEQ (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba) has 4m residents.

In 10 years time, the population of the big 5 will be:
Melbourne 6.1m
Sydney 5.8m
SEQ 4.8m
Perth 2.8m
Adelaide 1.6m
Being mindful that Sydney excludes the nearby Wollongong, Central Coast and Newcastle, which would add another 1.2m onto the general catchment area (maybe exclude Newcastle, it’s a bit further away).

Definitely not a good sign for Darwin. It's too small for a team as it is, but it's shrinking as a proportion of Australia's population.

The Government talks a big game about growing the population up north, but interestingly that list shows the north growing at a slower rate. I honestly expected Townsville and Cairns to be higher on that list, but the six most northern cities are all in the bottom half of that list for growth over the past decade.

 

[Seedsfan]

Would a hypothetical team run at a loss if they played in such a big stadium? If the stadium is government owned, surely the afl can negotiate a favourable agreement with the qld government. I’d assume the government would like the new stadium to be utilised, even if the crowds are not fantastic. The AFL draws pretty good travelling fan numbers and I’d imagine people would be keen for an excuse for to visit the new stadium.

The team could play bigger clubs at the ground (say 5 per year initially) with the others being played at a smaller stadium. There are lots of options the afl could consider. This new stadium is game changing even if it doesn’t fit a small club initially.

The NRL must be reeling that the afl get gifted a Olympic quality stadium…

Shut the top deck and reduce costs for low drawing games

 

[Seedsfan]

Definitely not a good sign for Darwin. It's too small for a team as it is, but it's shrinking as a proportion of Australia's population.

The Government talks a big game about growing the population up north, but interestingly that list shows the north growing at a slower rate. I honestly expected Townsville and Cairns to be higher on that list, but the six most northern cities are all in the bottom half of that list for growth over the past decade.

Bro, there are way too many social issues in Darwin to consider a footy team. They need to fix the social issues first then they can grow the city and look to join the AFL

 

[Professor Knowall]

Bro, there are way too many social issues in Darwin to consider a footy team. They need to fix the social issues first then they can grow the city and look to join the AFL

Yes - spot on. There’s an unhealthy percentage of Darwin’s population totally reliant on Centrelink for income, which then all too often goes on booze and cheap drugs, rather than food and other essentials. The resulting social problems of intoxication and/or drug abuse are tragic and immense - but the drastic measures required to solve them are politically unpalatable to the voters of the big cities down south, who are mostly blissfully ignorant of the true extent and horrific situation of so many (e.g. there are whole communities where severe domestic violence and child sexual abuse is so rampart that it’s accepted as normal behaviour) in the NT. I’ll say no more on this.

And even the relatively well off half of Darwin has a lot of itinérants - a lot of tradies make very good money but only stay a year (many don’t make it through the oppressive build-up to the wet season). Some last 2-3 years before having enough of their tropical experience and head off to their next adventure . And then there are the numerous army and air-force defence personnel - they also tend to come and go.

Smaller places like Ballarat and Bendigo have a much more stable and overall wealthier population than Darwin and would be thus more able to support an AFL side - and no, I wouldn’t consider actually basing teams in either of these places. But Darwin would be an even worse choice

 

[Seedsfan]

Yes - spot on. There’s an unhealthy percentage of Darwin’s population totally reliant on Centrelink for income, which then all too often goes on booze and cheap drugs, rather than food and other essentials. The resulting social problems of intoxication and/or drug abuse are tragic and immense - but the drastic measures required to solve them are politically unpalatable to the voters of the big cities down south, who are mostly blissfully ignorant of the true extent and horrific situation of so many (e.g. there are whole communities where severe domestic violence and child sexual abuse is so rampart that it’s accepted as normal behaviour) in the NT. I’ll say no more on this.

And even the relatively well off half of Darwin has a lot of itinérants - a lot of tradies make very good money but only stay a year (many don’t make it through the oppressive build-up to the wet season). Some last 2-3 years before having enough of their tropical experience and head off to their next adventure . And then there are the numerous army and air-force defence personnel - they also tend to come and go.

Smaller places like Ballarat and Bendigo have a much more stable and overall wealthier population than Darwin and would be thus more able to support an AFL side - and no, I wouldn’t consider actually basing teams in either of these places. But Darwin would be an even worse choice

Well said

 

[RedV3x]

Bro, there are way too many social issues in Darwin to consider a footy team. They need to fix the social issues first then they can grow the city and look to join the AFL

Quite the opposite.
When the N.T. had a team in the NEAFL there was significant improvement in social attitudes.
A football-led improvement in social attitudes has long been known as the only real motivator around - it just needs the resources but obviously Papuans need it more in the opinion of our great leader.

 

[RedV3x]

There’s an unhealthy percentage of Darwin’s population totally reliant on Centrelink for income, which then all too often goes on booze and cheap drugs, rather than food and other essentials.

Undoubtedly the situation is terrible up there but the only thing that can improve the situation is football, football for the local population and not so much football for the followers of AFL.

Unfortunately that does mean an injection of money and resources.

 

[kranger]

ABS today released the latest ‘Regional’ population data. So last week was States, this week Regional means Cities.

Regional population, 2023-24 financial year

Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia's capital cities and regions

www.abs.gov.au

Someone has already updated Wikipedia which is great, as the ABs website is not great at looking at cities other than the 8 capitals.

List of cities in Australia by population - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

View attachment 2263571

Things I noticed, based on the last 10 years growth rate.

In 10 years time, both Newcastle and Canberra will reach 600,000. One year later Canberra (including Queanbeyan) will overtake Newcastle and become the 7th largest city in Australia. The largest without an AFL team.

In 10 years time, Sunshine Coast will have 525,000 residents, and is the fastest growing Region in Australia, just beating Geelong.

Darwin is small, and not growing much.

New South Wales and Queensland (outside of SEQ) are growing slow.

SEQ (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba) has 4m residents.

In 10 years time, the population of the big 5 will be:
Melbourne 6.1m
Sydney 5.8m
SEQ 4.8m
Perth 2.8m
Adelaide 1.6m
Being mindful that Sydney excludes the nearby Wollongong, Central Coast and Newcastle, which would add another 1.2m onto the general catchment area (maybe exclude Newcastle, it’s a bit further away).

Based on this latest ABS data release, I’ve put together the following table and graphs. I trust everyone can come to understand them.

List of cities in Australia by population - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Any sports league that have average crowds below 6,000, such as the ABL or AFLW have been left out.

As we all should know, population alone should not be the deciding factor. Considering the number of existing teams taking resources (corporate and spectators) assists.

An AFL or NRL team takes a lot more resources to be viable than a NBL or Super Netball team, so evenly dividing a cities population between teams from all leagues is not equivalent. Many people could be interested in teams from multiple leagues. However it is reasonable as a simple metric of comparison.

Launceston is a standout, as they will only have the AFL team part time, which throws the mathematical formula out.

Another consideration is the actual level of interest in the relevant sport, for if it can attract attention in that city. I have not factored that into this data, so despite showing Auckland, their interest level in AFL would be very low.

I’m not drawing any conclusions as to where a 20th AFL team should go based on this data. Just sharing it for everyone.