20th AFL Team

[RedV3x]

It’s better having the Lions built up to be the West Coast of Brisbane.

The "West Coast" effect hasn't eventuated otherwise Pth3 would be further along.

 

[RedV3x]

Think Brisbane.2 think GWS Sydney.

Yes. Brisbane2 has none of the problems that faced GWS at its' inauguration.
Fantastic stadium Vs fairground stadium.
Strong local AFL competition Vs struggling local AFL competition.
Not much competition VS a number of NRL clubs.
A positive media Vs a still hostile media.
A local population open to the Australian indigenous game Vs a highly soccer orientated population.

 

[Colonial]

Yes. Brisbane2 has none of the problems that faced GWS at its' inauguration.
Fantastic stadium Vs fairground stadium.
Strong local AFL competition Vs struggling local AFL competition.
Not much competition VS a number of NRL clubs.
A positive media Vs a still hostile media.
A local population open to Australian indigenous Vs a highly soccer orientated population.

Part time vs fulltime

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Such an increase of capacity happening at the same time pretty much precludes Brisbane. It’d be one hell of a risk doing both at the same time.

Canberra and Perth3 are really the only viable options in the timeframe of a 20th team. The NT is a real long shot if they manage to secure an absolutely stupendous government deal.

Bris2 would be a solid candidate for the 21/22 round of expansion though.

Couldn’t agree more. A new world class stadium with expanded capacity for the Lions provides the club (and code) with the perfect window to achieve growth in Brisbane, without taking unnecessary and costly risks.

If the Lions ever get to a stage where the demand exceeds the supply of the new stadium, then it will be a far more appropriate time for the league to prepare for a 2nd Brisbane team, as opposed to now with an entry straight after the 2032 Olympics. This would make Brisbane 2 one of the strongest candidates for #21 - 22 (along with whoever misses out as team 20 - Canberra or WA3).

Aside from the local growth of the sport, the other development most closely linked to QLD 3’s timeline would be the strength/self-sufficiency of the Giants and Suns.

The region that’s unlucky to miss out as team 20 will be like Tasmania after the previous round of expansion. Waiting in the wings and working behind the scenes to ensure they’re next in line.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Part time vs fulltime

Even if Brisbane 2 was part-time, then it would be a Northern Brisbane club playing a few games in the Sunny Coast, which at 100km away, is a far more natural secondary market alliance than the Giants’ current set up.

 

[Colonial]

Even if Brisbane 2 was part-time, then it would be a Northern Brisbane club playing a few games in the Sunny Coast, which at 100km away, is a far more natural secondary market alliance than the Western Sydney Giants’ current set up.

Edited for what should be accuracy.

 

[qlderlions]

I just can’t see a world in which a second Brisbane team is a front runner for the 20th team (it should barely even be in the conversation).

Such an increase of capacity happening at the same time pretty much precludes Brisbane. It’d be one hell of a risk doing both at the same time.

Canberra and Perth3 are really the only viable options in the timeframe of a 20th team. The NT is a real long shot if they manage to secure an absolutely stupendous government deal.

Bris2 would be a solid candidate for the 21/22 round of expansion though.

You are not looking at this wholistically or commercially, it is not just about number of seats coming online for the lions:

• The first new stadium in 30 years in Brisbane and world class corporate facilities will draw a large (and lucrative) corporate crowd to the new stadium which in monetary terms will be the equivalent in profit terms to at least 10,0000 GA members.
• A second team in Brisbane will halve the AFL related stadium hire fee for the lions equivalent to 3000-5000 GA members
• An extra "Queensland" game in a large stadium for both the Lions and the Suns will increase attractiveness of away membership (and corporate support/media coverage) for those games which will boost revenue (and reduce travel cost)
• Having AFL on every week in Brisbane at a large stadium will increase AFL coverage in the local media and generate more "blockbuster" games leading to more corporate sponsors attracted to these games. And no the suns are not a Brisbane team. Gold Coast is a completely separate market and supporter base (hardly see any suns gear in Brissie).
• As discussed in other threads - Queensland teams (AFL and NRL) are less dependent on crowd revenue as a percentage of total revenue (off field and corporate are higher %) than other teams in other states.
• All this is before the significant unmet capacity of AFL aligned ex-Victorians in Brisbane who can't get to a game now who will be very attracted to blockbuster games with their teams in a world class stadium (like going to the MCG for them).
• On Potential: The corporate market (seats and sponsorship) potential in Brisbane is twice the size of WA, about 20 times the size of Canberra, about 100 times the size of NT.

I can see huge commercial potential here and incremental value also for the Lions/Suns.

However, I think Canberra gets in first (2030 is my bet) as it would be fastest to market but I think Brisbane2 would be there in 2033 post Olympics. I really think North are either going to be WA3 or have 5 home games in the NT with NT academy rights.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

I really think North are either going to be WA3 or have 5 home games in the NT with NT academy rights.

It’s possible that we’ll get an indication of North’s intentions later this year since it’s the final year of GC’s deal with the NT, which the Suns are highly unlikely to renew.

North’s WA deal runs until the end of 2027. Aside from playing two home games there, what’s your reasoning behind thinking they’re going to be WA3?

I believe that relocations have close to 0% chance of working in traditional footy states, and as I’ve said before, North’s constitutional amendment virtually makes it impossible for them to become fully relocated outside of Victoria.

 

[Colonial]

I really think North are either going to be WA3 or have 5 home games in the NT with NT academy rights.

 

[Orfullrules]

It’s possible that we’ll get an indication of North’s intentions later this year since it’s the final year of GC’s deal with the NT, which the Suns are highly unlikely to renew.

North’s WA deal runs until the end of 2027. Aside from playing two home games there, what’s your reasoning behind thinking they’re going to be WA3?

I believe that relocations have close to 0% chance of working in traditional footy states, and as I’ve said before, North’s constitutional amendment virtually makes it impossible for them to become fully relocated outside of Victoria.

North Melbourne, belong in you guessed it, the northern part of Melbourne. How about country Victoria for the 20th team?

 

[Canberra Pear]

North Melbourne, belong in you guessed it, the northern part of Melbourne. How about country Victoria for the 20th team?

Absolutely.

That's what the Australian Football League needs - an 11th Victorian team.

 

[GC2015]

Just to clarify, you want a Sunshine Coast team as well as a northern Brisbane team, or instead of?

Did I give off the impression that I wanted both? If I did, then that was not my intention. Scroll back a few pages and you'll see (in posts that you've quoted) that I was advocating for the QLD3 team to be a northern Brisbane team that plays 2-3 home games on the Sunshine Coast every year. Certainly not advocating for a fourth QLD team. That's a looooooong way off happening (if ever).

The comment regarding upgrading oval stadiums across QLD was literally just that. I'd like to see the stadium in Cairns upgraded to 20k as well, but I don't think I'd base an AFL team there. IMO Vic Park (63k) will be the centrepiece of Aussie rules in Queensland and Carrara (35-40k) will serve as a great secondary venue while the Sunshine Coast (20-25k) and Cairns (20k) can almost be viewed as satelite venues. They'll have a good amount of seats and will service those smaller markets that are showing a good amount of interest in footy.

Yeah it has to be one or the other, and if they go big with the stadium, I’d go with the Sunshine Coast.

Needs to be super easy to get there from Brisbane though so they’ll have an easier time selling out. As a team 21/22.

Cairns I’d love to see but won’t. There has to be a lot more growth and better connectivity to Townsville and Mackay to draw enough crowds.

That’s at least 50 years away. If they did go to 23-24, I’d have them in the equation.

QLD is looking better for expansion than NSW at this point.

Yeah, it's either Brisbane2 or the Sunshine Coast if you're going to introduce a QLD3 team into the AFL. If the AFL elects to pursue the Sunny Coast option, then I'd wait a bit longer considering the region is yet to eclipse 500k people and I think that's probably the minimum population you need to make it happen. The best chance Cairns has is some kind of combined bid with the NT into a 'Northern Australia' team that split games between Darwin, Cairns and the Alice. The logistics of that would be ridiculous, but the AFL could do it if they REALLY wanted to invest in the Top End of Australia (it lacks the population to really make it worth it for the AFL).

I still think Brisbane2 is the best option to grow the game in QLD. We've seen the kind of influence the Lions have had over the last 7 years while they've been succeeding on field and I think that has a lot to do with being based in the capital city. It's kind of like the Broncos and how they are popular all over Queensland, not just locally like the Titans are.

You think the increase in capacity dilutes the product. IMO it's the opposite.
IMO it's a tsunami of opportunity.
If everywhere you look there is Australia's indigenous game and quality high capacity stadiums as options
then a Queenslander cannot help but be impressed.
there are many elements in the potential success of a new team and a home stadium does generate excitement.
Pth3 could be playing a lot of their games at an old stadium.
A big stadium decision for Canberra would be a huge boost for their cause.

Even if everything somehow went wrong, a Brisbane2 team would still be just about guaranteed to pull a minimum of 30-40k crowds against teams like the Lions, Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon and possibly even the Suns. That's essentially half your yearly home games already and obviously the reverse Brisbane derby in the same stadium will be massive as well. Some people don't seem to realise that the big Victorian clubs are very popular in SEQ and will always pull a decent crowd here, regardless of how many fans the Brisbane2 team has. It's why the Suns continued to pull near sell out crowds against Collingwood even in really uncompetitive years for both clubs.

 

[Orfullrules]

Absolutely.

That's what the Australian Football League needs - an 11th Victorian team.

People in Victoria wear afl jumpers, it’s a good icebreaker at work for locals, weather is beautiful inside the great divide during winter. New trains are coming maybe. Country vic deserve another team before a rugby league/union, soccer, bike riding, skiing, running, swimming, political heartland.

 

[Canberra Pear]

You are not looking at this wholistically or commercially, it is not just about number of seats coming online for the lions:

• The first new stadium in 30 years in Brisbane and world class corporate facilities will draw a large (and lucrative) corporate crowd to the new stadium which in monetary terms will be the equivalent in profit terms to at least 10,0000 GA members.
• A second team in Brisbane will halve the AFL related stadium hire fee for the lions equivalent to 3000-5000 GA members
• An extra "Queensland" game in a large stadium for both the Lions and the Suns will increase attractiveness of away membership (and corporate support/media coverage) for those games which will boost revenue (and reduce travel cost)
• Having AFL on every week in Brisbane at a large stadium will increase AFL coverage in the local media and generate more "blockbuster" games leading to more corporate sponsors attracted to these games. And no the suns are not a Brisbane team. Gold Coast is a completely separate market and supporter base (hardly see any suns gear in Brissie).
• As discussed in other threads - Queensland teams (AFL and NRL) are less dependent on crowd revenue as a percentage of total revenue (off field and corporate are higher %) than other teams in other states.
• All this is before the significant unmet capacity of AFL aligned ex-Victorians in Brisbane who can't get to a game now who will be very attracted to blockbuster games with their teams in a world class stadium (like going to the MCG for them).
• On Potential: The corporate market (seats and sponsorship) potential in Brisbane is twice the size of WA, about 20 times the size of Canberra, about 100 times the size of NT.

I can see huge commercial potential here and incremental value also for the Lions/Suns.

However, I think Canberra gets in first (2030 is my bet) as it would be fastest to market but I think Brisbane2 would be there in 2033 post Olympics. I really think North are either going to be WA3 or have 5 home games in the NT with NT academy rights.

You've made some good points, and absolutely agree that it sets up footy in Queensland incredibly well.

And the long-term benefit is absolutely there
But it's just too soon. Common sense is to put some space between the two. Let the Lions settle into the stadium before making decisions that can't be unmade.

I also think you've also got some exaggerations there on your corporate market comparisons.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Did I give off the impression that I wanted both? If I did, then that was not my intention. Scroll back a few pages and you'll see (in posts that you've quoted) that I was advocating for the QLD3 team to be a northern Brisbane team that plays 2-3 home games on the Sunshine Coast every year. Certainly not advocating for a fourth QLD team. That's a looooooong way off happening (if ever).

The comment regarding upgrading oval stadiums across QLD was literally just that. I'd like to see the stadium in Cairns upgraded to 20k as well, but I don't think I'd base an AFL team there. IMO Vic Park (63k) will be the centrepiece of Aussie rules in Queensland and Carrara (35-40k) will serve as a great secondary venue while the Sunshine Coast (20-25k) and Cairns (20k) can almost be viewed as satelite venues. They'll have a good amount of seats and will service those smaller markets that are showing a good amount of interest in footy.


Yeah, it's either Brisbane2 or the Sunshine Coast if you're going to introduce a QLD3 team into the AFL. If the AFL elects to pursue the Sunny Coast option, then I'd wait a bit longer considering the region is yet to eclipse 500k people and I think that's probably the minimum population you need to make it happen. The best chance Cairns has is some kind of combined bid with the NT into a 'Northern Australia' team that split games between Darwin, Cairns and the Alice. The logistics of that would be ridiculous, but the AFL could do it if they REALLY wanted to invest in the Top End of Australia (it lacks the population to really make it worth it for the AFL).

I still think Brisbane2 is the best option to grow the game in QLD. We've seen the kind of influence the Lions have had over the last 7 years while they've been succeeding on field and I think that has a lot to do with being based in the capital city. It's kind of like the Broncos and how they are popular all over Queensland, not just locally like the Titans are.


Even if everything somehow went wrong, a Brisbane2 team would still be just about guaranteed to pull a minimum of 30-40k crowds against teams like the Lions, Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon and possibly even the Suns. That's essentially half your yearly home games already and obviously the reverse Brisbane derby in the same stadium will be massive as well. Some people don't seem to realise that the big Victorian clubs are very popular in SEQ and will always pull a decent crowd here, regardless of how many fans the Brisbane2 team has. It's why the Suns continued to pull near sell out crowds against Collingwood even in really uncompetitive years for both clubs.

Ahh my bad. I took "as well as a new AFL team that can play home games there" as a team actually based there.

 

[Canberra Pear]

People in Victoria wear afl jumpers, it’s a good icebreaker at work for locals, weather is beautiful inside the great divide during winter. New trains are coming maybe. Country vic deserve another team before a rugby league/union, soccer, bike riding, skiing, running, swimming, political heartland.

I can't tell if you're trolling or actually believe that.

Canberra shouldn't get a team because it likes multiple sports?

 

[Orfullrules]

If it is Canberra. Which I would be very happy for. Just don’t have ainslie involved in any way. And if Canberra milk is the sponsor, it’s a chance.

 

[Orfullrules]

I can't tell if you're trolling or actually believe that.

Canberra shouldn't get a team because it likes multiple sports?

Kids have multiple options. In Victoria you are playing/trying AFL just to fit in. I’m not trolling.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Kids have multiple options. In Victoria you are playing/trying AFL just to fit in. I’m not trolling.

It's not about participation though. It's about who can support a team off the field.

Otherwise the NT would be a top contender too.

Canberra also has more footy players than league players, so if we're a league heartland as you state, we're just as much an AFL heartland.

 

[Walshawk]

You are not looking at this wholistically or commercially, it is not just about number of seats coming online for the lions:

• The first new stadium in 30 years in Brisbane and world class corporate facilities will draw a large (and lucrative) corporate crowd to the new stadium which in monetary terms will be the equivalent in profit terms to at least 10,0000 GA members.
• A second team in Brisbane will halve the AFL related stadium hire fee for the lions equivalent to 3000-5000 GA members
• An extra "Queensland" game in a large stadium for both the Lions and the Suns will increase attractiveness of away membership (and corporate support/media coverage) for those games which will boost revenue (and reduce travel cost)
• Having AFL on every week in Brisbane at a large stadium will increase AFL coverage in the local media and generate more "blockbuster" games leading to more corporate sponsors attracted to these games. And no the suns are not a Brisbane team. Gold Coast is a completely separate market and supporter base (hardly see any suns gear in Brissie).
• As discussed in other threads - Queensland teams (AFL and NRL) are less dependent on crowd revenue as a percentage of total revenue (off field and corporate are higher %) than other teams in other states.
• All this is before the significant unmet capacity of AFL aligned ex-Victorians in Brisbane who can't get to a game now who will be very attracted to blockbuster games with their teams in a world class stadium (like going to the MCG for them).
• On Potential: The corporate market (seats and sponsorship) potential in Brisbane is twice the size of WA, about 20 times the size of Canberra, about 100 times the size of NT.

I can see huge commercial potential here and incremental value also for the Lions/Suns.

However, I think Canberra gets in first (2030 is my bet) as it would be fastest to market but I think Brisbane2 would be there in 2033 post Olympics. I really think North are either going to be WA3 or have 5 home games in the NT with NT academy rights.

The new stadium actually reduces the chance of Brisbane 2. 10k crowds in a 36k Gabba would be (barely) ok, but in a 63K stadium will look, sound and feel horrible.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If the QLD teams are doing so well, why do they need to get the 2nd and 3rd biggest distribution of all clubs, especially during an onfield contention period? Membership numbers are wildly inaccurate for measuring financial success too.

But isn't that the very point of the argument? Other than GWS/GC, Brisbane currently have the worst capacity to generate revenue/profit from the ever increasing number people of people who want to spend lots and lots of money at the Gabba on the Lions.

They just can't, because the Gabba is so shit, so Brisbane are have to ask for more money out of the the AFL. Because they have less ways to generate revenue out of their ordinary home game both through simple capacity but also vastly inferior premium ticketing products (corporate boxes, function room facilities for player sponsors before games etc.)

People want to spend their money on the Lions, and with the increase in Qld property prices and rent, there's certainly a rich landlord class of people who have the capacity to. (As well as your yuppie reality TV watching pilaties goer who is presumably the audience of the Lachie Neale personal life news, these people are now attached to this universe showbow). As discussed in this thread it's an audience that's grown massively in the Fagan era.

Say for what ever reason Richmond were forced to play 11 home games at Punt Rd Oval. They too would require handouts from AFL (you can't charge people more for inferior infrastructure to watch games in), but it doesn't undermine the fact that they'd still be one of the most well-supported clubs in the AFL. Same principle for the Lions and their handouts.

 

[Badger17]

If it is Canberra. Which I would be very happy for. Just don’t have ainslie involved in any way. And if Canberra milk is the sponsor, it’s a chance.

Canberra Milk effectively doesn't exist anymore.

Bega bought them about 5 or so years ago, then closed the factory in Canberra and shifted all production to an existing facility in Penrith. In other words Canberra Milk exists purely as the label on the bottle these days, and I doubt Bega will bother to keep seperate branding and marketing for it around for long.

 

[Aussie in exile]

But isn't that the very point of the argument? Other than GWS/GC, Brisbane currently have the worst capacity to generate revenue/profit from the ever increasing number people of people who want to spend lots and lots of money at the Gabba on the Lions.

They just can't, because the Gabba is so shit, so Brisbane are have to ask for more money out of the the AFL. Because they have less ways to generate revenue out of their ordinary home game both through simple capacity but also vastly inferior premium ticketing products (corporate boxes, function room facilities for player sponsors before games etc.)

People want to spend their money on the Lions, and with the increase in Qld property prices and rent, there's certainly a rich landlord class of people who have the capacity to. (As well as your yuppie reality TV watching pilaties goer who is presumably the audience of the Lachie Neale personal life news, these people are now attached to this universe showbow). As discussed in this thread it's an audience that's grown massively in the Fagan era.

Say for what ever reason Richmond were forced to play 11 home games at Punt Rd Oval. They too would require handouts from AFL (you can't charge people more for inferior infrastructure to watch games in), but it doesn't undermine the fact that they'd still be one of the most well-supported clubs in the AFL. Same principle for the Lions and their handouts.

So in your opinion another Brisbane with revenue/profit, and i can see that, as by the time they got in the NRL would have 3 clubs playing out of Brisbane by then.
For me i can't see past Canberra, but i say again for me there appears to be an undercurrent that doesn't want them in.

 

[The_Reaper]

I still don’t understand why the magical tooth fairy will fund 20k oval stadium in Sunshine Coast.

Cairns, seems unlikely but I given the AFL actually does play matches in Cairns and the possibility of international cricket being played mid year in Cairns it is possible

 

[RedV3x]

So in your opinion another Brisbane with revenue/profit, and i can see that, as by the time they got in the NRL would have 3 clubs playing out of Brisbane by then.

The difference is that another AFL club in Brisbane would build the momentum behind Australia's indigenous game and showcase Australia's indigenous game in great stadiums whilst another NRL team in Brisbane simply dilutes the NRL brand of imported sport played in vetuste arenas.