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I disagree.
The 11 games from team 19 are worth far more than the 11 games from team 20. The weekly bye allows for more Thursday night games. That is where the next 11 games will be fixtured, most likely on FTA. This slot is second only to Friday nights in eyeballs. Adding a tenth match per round the game will either be the second night game (on Fox Footy) or second Sat arvo on Fox’s secondary channel. Both these slots are overlapping and won’t draw half the eyeballs as the Thursday slot.
Secondly, Tas currently has around 25 listed players. Without a team, this could well drop to 15 in 10/20 years. With a team, it is likely to grow - say 35. The difference of 30 player will make a decent offset to the 19th team and extra players required. No other location can say the same.
Tas is a much safer bet as we know it is footy heartland. Sure, footy in Canberra was just as big or bigger than RL pre-Raiders, but how do we know that the media, and fans will get behind a team the way Tassie will? (They probably will).
So, if you think the team 19 has an uphill battle for entry, team 20 will be much much harder. Plus no one at the AFL has even mentioned it. It is simply not on the radar.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is today releasing the 2021 census data. But I went back to a data release in April for the population of Australian Cities with population over 10,000.
Regional population, 2020-21 financial year
Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia's capital cities and regionswww.abs.gov.au
I modified the layout of their table to be easier to get the key information and made some tables, which show the growth of Australia’s 20 largest cities in the last 20 years.
A couple of take aways I had, and these aren’t the most important, but they help to paint a picture:
1. In the past 20 years Melbourne grew by more people than Adelaide has in total.
2. In the past 20 years Adelaide grew by more people than Hobart has in total.
Given where the massive growth in people is/was, I can see why the AFL chose Gold Coast and West Sydney to be the most recent expansion teams.
Tasmanian have a hard sell for getting an AFL team with their small market, which is not concentrated in one city and growing slower in comparison to elsewhere. But I still support them for team 19.
And whilst I prefer Canberra for team 20 over any other location, their case for a team is probably even harder than Tasmania as they don’t have the sentimental factor of being known as a traditional footy state.
Just the sheer size of the big 6 cities really makes it hard to see any smaller city being home to an AFL team in the future.
The Bereau of stastics said a few days ago that Hobart's population is currently 247000.This is what the stats above looks like, if you break down the population by the number of AFL teams in that City.
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This is what the stats above looks like, if you break down the population by the number of AFL teams in that City.
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Not really. They can bring back Match Ratio like when it was a 15 team comp.The ladder will also be a pain all season long with teams not having played as often as each other.
I updated the table to include NRL as the AFL big winter competitor. I recognise that some numbers are different to recent census data, but not by enough to change the overall visualisation comparison.
Note’s :
1. Wollongong shares an NRL team with Sydney (St George Illawarra Dragons)
2. Sunshine Coast will share an NRL team with Brisbane (Brisbane Dolphins)
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Now you could expand it further and include Super Rugby and A-League teams. Which would give the Central Coast the Mariners, and bring the share of population in Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Newcastle and Canberra down.
It also makes Hobart the largest population centre without a football team in the four big codes.
And makes you question the ability of Canberra to be shared, not only by the NRL and super rugby, but also by a potential 20th AFL team. Perhaps Canberra sharing an AFL team is the way to go. Whether that be GWS, or let them focus on Sydney and it instead be a Melbourne based team.
I updated the table to include NRL as the AFL big winter competitor. I recognise that some numbers are different to recent census data, but not by enough to change the overall visualisation comparison.
Note’s :
1. Wollongong shares an NRL team with Sydney (St George Illawarra Dragons)
2. Sunshine Coast will share an NRL team with Brisbane (Brisbane Dolphins)
View attachment 1440621
View attachment 1440623
View attachment 1440626
Now you could expand it further and include Super Rugby and A-League teams. Which would give the Central Coast the Mariners, and bring the share of population in Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Newcastle and Canberra down.
It also makes Hobart the largest population centre without a football team in the four big codes.
And makes you question the ability of Canberra to be shared, not only by the NRL and super rugby, but also by a potential 20th AFL team. Perhaps Canberra sharing an AFL team is the way to go. Whether that be GWS, or let them focus on Sydney and it instead be a Melbourne based team.
Two games (of 12) @ SC. Hardly a joint venture.I was replying but misread you post.
I Didn't realise the Redcliffe Dolphins were to be a joint effort with the Sunshine coast.
I wondered why Redcliffe got the nod over the stronger NRL area of Ipswich.
I guess the part expansion into SC would be the attempt to beat the AFL into the SC
Two games (of 12) @ SC. Hardly a joint venture.
Two games (of 12) @ SC. Hardly a joint venture.
From an AFL perspective, the clear take away from the stats is that the only team missing from the AFL is a 3rd Perth team.
Yes, but how many people in Perth don't already have a team to follow? And how many WC or Freo fans are going to change clubs? It's like saying Collingwood should have two teams.From an AFL perspective, the clear take away from the stats is that the only team missing from the AFL is a 3rd Perth team.
More than anything it shows the stupidity of how the AFL have structured a national competition.Yes, but how many people in Perth don't already have a team to follow? And how many WC or Freo fans are going to change clubs? It's like saying Collingwood should have two teams.
Yes but there is no way it could have been done better given how it all evolved. Also Perth was smaller than Adelaide in the 1980s. Sure if you were starting a National comp from now it would look different but it is nobody’s fault.More than anything it shows the stupidity of how the AFL have structured a national competition.
Developing teams in NSW & Qld is one thing. but in football states they have stuffed it up. Too many in one place & not enough in others. The longer it went on, the harder it is to change it. The gravy train just covers up the problem.
This has been my long held opinion. Based on the fact that with 18 teams Tas1 has the capacity & should be part of that size of an AFL comp, & WA3 in the 2nd largest footy market in Australia.
Tas1 & WA3
Canberra's the only option that has enough existing AFL support for an AFL team to exist, and enough room for growth to make the expansion worthwhile.
Perth is already AFL mad, a third team will just become the poorer Perth brother and add nothing to the footprint.
One would never know. We have Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, so a team called Perth makes sense.
The 'Perth Sharks' may attract many who don't particularly like WCE or Freo & who may not be members. The WAFC would perhaps like another team to attract more sponsorship & use of the Wests fantastic new venue.
Anyway, its not as if I'm against Canberra. Far from it.
Canberra and Perth are the only places I can see conceivably working as Team 20. The NT is a romantic option, but really a pipedream.
But I think Canberra still makes more sense (I realise I can't say that without bias).
To me, Fremantle is still so far behind West Coast, that they still need time to catch up (hopefully a few years of the current performances can help). Even this year, West Coast have 100k members and Freo have 53k.
Freo should be a huge club alongside West Coast, but I fear a third Perth team will hamstring Freo's growth and result in West Coast overshadowing two mediocre clubs, rather than Perth having two strong clubs.
I guess I'd say that it wouldn't affect Freo. A bit like a 3rd Adelaide side wouldn't affect Port.
It may affect WCE a bit. I'd think it'd attract those who want something different. Like a team called Perth!!
One would never know. We have Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, so a team called Perth makes sense.
The 'Perth Sharks' may attract many who don't particularly like WCE or Freo & who may not be members. The WAFC would perhaps like another team to attract more sponsorship & use of the Wests fantastic new venue.
Anyway, its not as if I'm against Canberra. Far from it.