20th AFL Team

[Coolangatta]

Team 20 will be one of Canberra, WA3 or SA3.

SA3 is unlikely unless SANFL figure there is a posative case that others will no go for and then decide to go for it.

WA3 is up to WA authorities. To date they are unconvinced (but if SA3 starts growing legs they might reconsider).

That leaves what should be favourite, Canberra. With the GWS considerations & no one really to go for it, it might is unlkely to go anywhere for 10 years...

19 teams is a rubbish situation for the AFL. I think they will do nothing on T20 until Tassie is up for sure & stadium is under way. Only then will anything happen (late 2025 or 2026 for that to clear). Until then the only thing to do for those with an interest is to quietly plot & plan.

I was told this myself in an email response from Brian Walsh, the executive general manager of communications. He said, "Andrew has asked me to respond to you and thank you for your email and your thoughts. While our focus is on getting the Tasmanian team up and running at the moment, we appreciate your views."

Edit: According to Dillon himself, when he appeared on one of those footy shows, he said the focus was on Tassie at the moment and a 20th team is something they would look at in the future. I'm sure when Tassie start building the stadium they'll make their intentions more clear and it'd be insanity for ACT to be excluded from the discussion if NT is included in it.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

An article from Professor Tim Harcourt (University of Technology, Sydney) about the 20th AFL team. He favours Darwin although, several times, he makes the point that a Northern Australia team (representing the entire NT and Cairns) is a possibility. In my opinion, I can’t see NT being viable as a standalone club, although despite the obvious issues, in many areas it does present a more compelling case as a North Australia club.

https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/alm...erra-capitals-who-will-be-the-afls-20th-team/

If this was the case then I would split the games like this:

Darwin 7, Cairns 4, Alice Springs 1 - colours black, orange, yellow (introduced 2032).

2032 population projections - key North Australia regions

293,000 - Entire NT

182,000 - Darwin

291,558 - Greater Cairns

265,147 - Greater Townsville

206,054 - Mackay, Isaac, Whitsunday

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/n...=ff582b41641a2456be638febbc286bf8-1712074849#

https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/issues/...s-sa4s-qld-low-med-high-series-2021-2046.xlsx

Gross state/regional product: NT is $32b and Far North Qld is $16.7b, compared with Tasmania’s $40b.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_states_and_territories_by_gross_state_product
https://economy.id.com.au/fnqroc/gross-product#

Projected social impact of NT AFL team: $462m pa for health, education, community cohesiveness, crime reduction etc.

https://www.aflnt.com.au/sites/default/files/uploads/NT AFL Team Scoping Report.pdf

Positives:

1. Best addition for the national competition.
2. Academies set up throughout NT and NQ (to follow on from the Suns’ work in those regions) - improved opportunities for locals and enhanced player pipeline to identify and develop talent.
3. The reported $462m social impact of having an NT-based club.
4. Ability to attract financial support from government (federal, NT, QLD) and the mining sector.
5. A Northern Australia club provides a population base that is big enough to sustain a club and without much competition (only Cowboys and Cairns Taipans). A base of over 1m people and some of those areas being AFL-friendly (NT and Cairns).
6. If North Queensland is on board in a meaningful way then the economic base is big enough too.
7. A Northern Aus team would have a unique and interesting identity that would probably make them a popular team to watch across the nation thus driving consumption of AFL content - way more important than what people think since media rights are the sport’s largest source of revenue (it’s worth noting that Lewis Martin, Channel 7’s Head of Sport, has been part of the committee that’s developing the business case for this club).
8. If the club identity has sufficient indigenous representation then it may attract the support of indigenous Australians from around Australia (although early days, the Tassie Devils have shown that nation-wide support is possible to some degree).
9. Allows the AFL to simultaneously expand into heartland (NT) and expansion (NQ) areas without current representation, which achieves the AFL’s purpose “progress the game so everyone can share in its heritage and possibilities”.

Negatives/questions:

1. Facilities - Cazaly’s in Cairns okay as a secondary venue but a new Darwin stadium and high performance centre would be needed. Would the stadium get enough use to be viable? Probably not.
2. Amount of travel required for the team and how this would impact performance, finances and retention. Can the fixture be structured to reduce the quantity of flights, without impacting the players’ lives too severely?
3. Player retention in general. Can the local academies be prolific enough to partly alleviate this by providing a majority of players for the club?
4. The climate - the plan is for a couple of early season games to be in Alice Springs, so home games aren’t impacted by the wet season. What about pre-season and AFLW season?
5. $15m pa revenue gap - how would this be covered and by whom?
6. Where do the reserves play? Would SANFL be the best option? Still a tough ask.
7. Can the club build an identity that adequately represents all of Northern Australia to maximise their supporter base?

I think that #5-7 can be solved. However, the first four negatives are much harder to plan for. If the Federal Government buys in to the ‘social impact’ narrative then they might be prepared to tip in enough cash to get the stadium done. The other points are mainly due to it being an isolated and tropical location, which cannot be fixed.

In saying that, if the NRL is planning on basing a team in Cairns, flying them to PNG + all around the country then I’d argue that will be a more challenging undertaking than what is being proposed here with this Northern AFL license. PNG wouldn’t be viable without the federal funding, the same might be applicable to this case as well. It would be pretty cool if they can find a way to make it all work.

 

[Coolangatta]

Cunnington Cartel that's 12 home games for the Northern Australia club. Would the AFL allow it? I've come across whiny Vic's online before about how "everyone gets 11 home games a year, that's fair! St Kilda don't play at Marvel until round X types!"

They won't like the northern side getting 12 games at home per year, but I wouldn't mind. I agree 100% on Cairns having 4x games, they've got a stadium that's good enough to use as a secondary market with upgrades.

Darwin needs 7 minimum, so I agree on that. It'd be nice for Alice Springs to get a home game during the H/A season but they're the ones I think you could move to a pre-season game.

Ideally, I'd have Darwin 7, Cairns 4, Alice, Townsville, Mackay 1 each, but the other clubs would never allow it and a lot of fans would be upset, but my argument would be that the extra travel burden they'd face could be offset by extra home advantages.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Cunnington Cartel that's 12 home games for the Northern Australia club. Would the AFL allow it? I've come across whiny Vic's online before about how "everyone gets 11 home games a year, that's fair! St Kilda don't play at Marvel until round X types!"

They won't like the northern side getting 12 games at home per year, but I wouldn't mind. I agree 100% on Cairns having 4x games, they've got a stadium that's good enough to use as a secondary market with upgrades.

Darwin needs 7 minimum, so I agree on that. It'd be nice for Alice Springs to get a home game during the H/A season but they're the ones I think you could move to a pre-season game.

Ideally, I'd live Darwin 7, Cairns 4, Alice, Townsville, Mackay 1 each, but the other clubs would never allow it and a lot of fans would be upset, but my argument would be that the extra travel burden they'd face could be offset by extra home advantages.

I should have prefaced my post by saying this is based on the assumption that there’ll be a 25 round season by the time club 20 enters, because that’s what most of the current commentary around this is indicating. 12 home, 12 away, 1 gather round.

Also, I understand that on crowd sizes Alice Springs wouldn’t get a game, although the whole premise of this NT/Northern Aus club is that it’s an unconventional model where social impact is at its core. Alice Springs is arguably more dysfunctional than any other community in the country right now, so they would benefit greatly from a game. AFLNT said they don’t want their proposal to be viewed as a Darwin-only club either.

Another factor is with a 25 game season, R1 will be starting in early March. There’s no way that games could be played in Darwin or Cairns then because of the likelihood of storms. Alice isn’t impacted by the wet season since it’s so far inland and this is another reason why it has been regularly put forward as a start of season option by AFLNT while discussing this license bid. They usually suggest 2 games for Alice, although I think that it would be more important to get 7 games in Darwin and 4 in Cairns to ensure they get return on stadium investment and buy-in from North Qld. If this is the case then maybe they could schedule consecutive away games in a block early season, broken up with one game in Alice.

These reasons alone would ensure that Alice plays some kind of role during regular season (if we go to 25 games).

 

[Coolangatta]

I should have prefaced my post by saying this is based on the assumption that there’ll be a 25 round season by the time club 20 enters, because that’s what most of the current commentary around this is indicating. 12 home, 12 away, 1 gather round.

Also, I understand that on crowd sizes Alice Springs wouldn’t get a game, although the whole premise of this NT/Northern Aus club is that it’s an unconventional model where social impact is at its core. Alice Springs is arguably more dysfunctional than any other community in the country right now, so they would benefit greatly from a game. AFLNT said they don’t want their proposal to be viewed as a Darwin-only club either.

Another factor is with a 25 game season, R1 will be starting in early March. There’s no way that games could be played in Darwin or Cairns then because of the likelihood of storms. Alice isn’t impacted by the wet season since it’s so far inland and this is another reason why it has been regularly put forward as a start of season option by AFLNT while discussing this license bid. They usually suggest 2 games for Alice, although I think that it would be more important to get 7 games in Darwin and 4 in Cairns to ensure they get return on stadium investment and buy-in from North Qld. If this is the case then maybe they could schedule consecutive away games in a block early season, broken up with one game in Alice.

These reasons alone would ensure that Alice plays some kind of role during regular season (if we go to 25 games).

Ah. Spot on. If they're smart, it'll be 7-4-1, with a couple of early away games back to back (they could hub somewhere).

25 games per year is gonna be brutal on the players, though, ouch, but at least every game will count.

Would still love Townsville and Mackay to get a game but the northern side would be locked in at 12 home games like everyone else, I'd imagine.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Ah. Spot on. If they're smart, it'll be 7-4-1, with a couple of early away games back to back (they could hub somewhere).

25 games per year is gonna be brutal on the players, though, ouch, but at least every game will count.

Would still love Townsville and Mackay to get a game but the northern side would be locked in at 12 home games like everyone else, I'd imagine.

For sure. That would be the best way to go about it. Townsville and Mackay have AFL-compliant venues, although I think they’d be best served to host AFLW games. Then it allows the Qld government to invest in making Cazaly’s a great secondary venue instead of duplicating facilities and ending up with a series of mediocre ones.

Maybe the Suns could host an annual game in Mackay or something after they left Darwin. You wouldn’t want them cutting into the new club’s potential base too much, but one game in the smallest of the 3 NQ cities wouldn’t be too bad.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

AFL claims to be an elite competition, and yet it keeps adding teams and making it weaker. Can't work the AFL out.

 

[Walshawk]

A 20th team is not on the radar. It is a long, long way off.

A quote from Andrew Dillon yesterday ““I think a lot of people like the even numbers (with a 20th team) but there’s nothing that says you have to”.

 

[kranger]

Footy club in ‘audacious’ plot to change AFL around the country

The local powerhouse has serious corporate muscle and believes it can ‘steal’ thousands of fans from its rivals.

7news.com.au

SA3 being Norwood is still getting attention.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Where Bruce McAvaney thinks the AFL must put a 20th team to “complete the jigsaw”

“I say that with my head and not my heart.”

www.sen.com.au

Bruce wants the NT.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

For sure. That would be the best way to go about it. Townsville and Mackay have AFL-compliant venues, although I think they’d be best served to host AFLW games. Then it allows the Qld government to invest in making Cazaly’s a great secondary venue instead of duplicating facilities and ending up with a series of mediocre ones.

Maybe the Suns could host an annual game in Mackay or something after they left Darwin. You wouldn’t want them cutting into the new club’s potential base too much, but one game in the smallest of the 3 NQ cities wouldn’t be too bad.

I think the best idea would a sort of spread out gather round. Call it Northern round. 20 teams means 10 games, so put 2 in each of Darwin, Alice Springs, Cairns, Townsville and Mackay. Having one team trying to cover multiple cities that are so far apart is just too taxing.

 

[Coolangatta]

I think the best idea would a sort of spread out gather round. Call it Northern round. 20 teams means 10 games, so put 2 in each of Darwin, Alice Springs, Cairns, Townsville and Mackay. Having one team trying to cover multiple cities that are so far apart is just too taxing.

That’s what I’ve suggested several times before: Top End round.

If NA doesn’t get off the ground then do TE round and make Canberra the 20th team.

Would be cool to see NT and NQ get their own teams in the distant future but it looks unlikely.

 

[Coolangatta]

A 20th team is not on the radar. It is a long, long way off.

A quote from Andrew Dillon yesterday ““I think a lot of people like the even numbers (with a 20th team) but there’s nothing that says you have to”.

Yeah, I was told pretty much the same thing in my email to the AFL about expansion, not “we don’t have to have 20” but essentially “it’s not even on our radar yet.”

He also said if they’re going to expand, it has to be sustainable. Pretty much rules out NT/NQ unless there’s gonna be big financial backers for it.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

He also said if they’re going to expand, it has to be sustainable. Pretty much rules out NT/NQ unless there’s gonna be big financial backers for it.

Going by that statement, it’ll be WA3 most likely as a generic “Perth” team or specific area (Joondalup/Bunbury).

 

[Canberra Pear]

Going by that statement, it’ll be WA3 most likely as a generic “Perth” team or specific area (Joondalup/Bunbury).

That's why I want to see a business case for Canberra.

Everybody assumes the big population for Perth means they'll be more sustainable, but I think Canberra will be just as, if not more, than sustainable than WA3.

But without a business case, it's just a lot of speculation.

 

[Coolangatta]

That's why I want to see a business case for Canberra.

Everybody assumes the big population for Perth means they'll be more sustainable, but I think Canberra will be just as, if not more, than sustainable than WA3.

But without a business case, it's just a lot of speculation.

I saw Canberra get a mention in the Fox article and I think channel 7 as well. The Roar claimed there’s a consortium in Canberra that’s put their hand up for a team but that hasn’t been verified.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I saw Canberra get a mention in the Fox article and I think channel 7 as well. The Roar claimed there’s a consortium in Canberra that’s put their hand up for a team but that hasn’t been verified.

Interesting. Mitch Cleary said "consortiums out of Perth, and even Canberra, are sure to put their hand up".

I wonder if he knows of a consortium, or he's speculating based on increased support coming from Canberra.

Fox Footy said: "The Northern Territory, a third team in Western Australia or a Canberra side are viewed as some of the leading options".

The conversation has definitely shifted a bit in the past year or two.

 

[Coolangatta]

Interesting. Mitch Cleary said "consortiums out of Perth, and even Canberra, are sure to put their hand up".

I wonder if he knows of a consortium, or he's speculating based on increased support coming from Canberra.

Fox Footy said: "The Northern Territory, a third team in Western Australia or a Canberra side are viewed as some of the leading options".

The conversation has definitely shifted a bit in the past year or two.

It'll be out of WA3, SA3 and Canberra I think, but if Norwood doesn't go all in, I'm not sure WA3 will actually be as interested as people who want them to have another team will be, leaving ACT as the frontrunner.

I'd love to see an expansion cycle that's based on interest (ACT, NT, NQ) and need (WA3, SA3).

20. ACT
21. Perth (Falcons, just let them use their traditional colours)
22. Norwood (only if Adelaide becomes too big a.k.a. Eagles which I'm not sure is a sure thing)
23. NQ (based primarily in Cairns, play a game each in Townsville and Mackay)
24. NT (based primarily in Darwin, play a couple early season games in Alice Springs)

23 and 24 are the least likely but gees wouldn't I love to see it since they actually do have interest.

I'd like to see actual demand and bidding from places like NZ etc before I'd ever consider them.

I do agree with Andrew Dillon's comments, though, but I'm thinking bigger. I look at 21 teams as doable and good for the game (ACT, WA3) and you could leave it at that until/if Adelaide becomes too big and they have 50k or so members who can't get a seat at AO.

 

[Rob]

That's why I want to see a business case for Canberra.

Everybody assumes the big population for Perth means they'll be more sustainable, but I think Canberra will be just as, if not more, than sustainable than WA3.

But without a business case, it's just a lot of speculation.

The business case usually is just a bunch of speculation. Pure guesses on crowds, corporates, other sponsors and pretty much every item of income.

 

[ringa5]

Northern Australia is the way to go
Darwin ,Broome and Cairns share home games.Team Based in Darwin.
Canberra can take over GWS

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Footy club in ‘audacious’ plot to change AFL around the country

The local powerhouse has serious corporate muscle and believes it can ‘steal’ thousands of fans from its rivals.

7news.com.au

SA3 being Norwood is still getting attention.

Norwood seems to be stating that they will be ready to enter at the same time as Tasmania, which if true means they have a head start on WA3, NT/North Australia or Canberra. But I don’t see how Norwood is better than WA3 or Canberra, given the significantly bigger population of both of these regions.

If the AFL Commission wants to have Team 20 in an AFL heartland, then surely WA3 is a better option than Norwood?

 

[agiel]

Norwood seems to be stating that they will be ready to enter at the same time as Tasmania, which if true means they have a head start on WA3, NT/North Australia or Canberra. But I don’t see how Norwood is better than WA3 or Canberra, given the significantly bigger population of both of these regions.

If the AFL Commission wants to have Team 20 in an AFL heartland, then surely WA3 is a better option than Norwood?

Purely based on population or based on the fact you feel like WA are more passionate about footy?

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Purely based on population or based on the fact you feel like WA are more passionate about footy?

Population - Perth has 2.3 million to Adelaide’s 1.5 million. As for who is more passionate, I don’t know but having Optus Stadium as well as a chance to have 6 derby matches (as opposed to the current 2), makes WA3 a more viable proposition than Norwood?

Regional population, 2023-24 financial year

Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia's capital cities and regions

www.abs.gov.au

 

[Canberra Pear]

Norwood seems to be stating that they will be ready to enter at the same time as Tasmania, which if true means they have a head start on WA3, NT/North Australia or Canberra. But I don’t see how Norwood is better than WA3 or Canberra, given the significantly bigger population of both of these regions.

If the AFL Commission wants to have Team 20 in an AFL heartland, then surely WA3 is a better option than Norwood?

Norwood won't be ready to enter in 2028.

For one thing, they don't have an AFL standard list. Having two teams enter in 2028 would be terrible for the draft, and I would expect they'd want at least a couple of years gap after how the Suns/Giants draft years went.