20th AFL Team

[Coolangatta]

This state's population is growing faster than anywhere in Australia

Western Australia's population surges past 3 million people, with the state taking the gong for the fastest-growing jurisdiction in the country.

www.abc.net.au

Some interesting numbers here. Tasmania actually went backwards in population which isn't great. I do feel a footy team will help with this though.

Would be ironic if the NT does end up being team 20 as there’s clearly a need for a Canberra team and a 3rd Perth team and then both end up getting shafted.

 

[RedV3x]

Sicily, Eddie McGuire discussions in the past but I havent visited Tasmania before but Id imagine retention would be a huge issue.

Dont know but for a young person right now its desirable to live in the main 5 cities of Aus: Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane. I dont know for a kid thats grown up their whole life in a Melbourne or Perth and then having to relocate for a minimum of 3 years. Start up clubs like: Freo, GWS and Gold Coast had huge retention problems in their first 10 years and I see little to see things changing. You dont want it to be a franchise where top tier teams cherry pick the top-end talent.

I dont include Gold Coast in those 5 cities above as its rare to see the likes of a David Swallow stay there pretty much for their whole careers.Geelong is also a bit different, as the club culture is strong and only an hour away from Melbourne.

 

[RedV3x]

I haven't visited Tasmania before but Id imagine retention would be a huge issue.

Why do you always post on the irrelevant ?
I don't imagine retention would be an issue at all for Tasmania..
Hobart is closer to Melbourne than Canberra or Adelaide
and Tasmania is an Australian Football "heartland".

 

[davidgoes4wce]

Why do you always post on the irrelevant ?
I don't imagine retention would be an issue at all for Tasmania..
Hobart is closer to Melbourne than Canberra or Adelaide
and Tasmania is an Australian Football "heartland".

Look nothing against Tasmania, but I have never visited there.

I reckon it would be hard to hold onto a Victorian kid that has grew up in Melbourne their whole life to settle down in Tasmania for 10+ years, heartland or not. It would be the equivalent of sending a Perth kid to a country town like Kalgoorlie. People have perceptions and negative views and will want out. I bring that example out because I have done the above before.

Melbourne is more of a young persons city and a hustle. I can very much see a world where a young player recruited from interstate will look to go home at the first chance.

 

[catters05]

Look nothing against Tasmania, but I have never visited there.

I reckon it would be hard to hold onto a Victorian kid that has grew up in Melbourne their whole life to settle down in Tasmania for 10+ years, heartland or not. It would be the equivalent of sending a Perth kid to a country town like Kalgoorlie. People have perceptions and negative views and will want out. I bring that example out because I have done the above before.

Melbourne is more of a young persons city and a hustle. I can very much see a world where a young player recruited from interstate will look to go home at the first chance.

It’s worth a visit. Tassie is fantastic.

Bringing an AFL club in won’t be about the Vic kids in the future, it will be about building up home grown talent and improving local and youth footy across the state.

it’s an hours flight or so from Melbourne, should be fine. Also, depends how they build up the club, they will probably focus on a Geelong type model of attracting/holding players over say a Collingwood model of being the big show attraction in Melbourne.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Some interesting numbers here. Tasmania actually went backwards in population which isn't great. I do feel a footy team will help with this though.

Will it? Is an AFL team the difference between many people staying in a place or leaving it? I'd argue the bigger factors are jobs, affordable housing and social life (which is linked to the restaurant/bar scene). I think Tasmania deserves a team because of their contribution to the game, but I really doubt it'll make much difference to the economy or the population.

If the Tasmanian government had invested in affordable housing and good internet, they might have been able to attract a lot of tree changers who can work from home, and I think that would be more beneficial to reversing demographic decline than an AFL team.

 

[catters05]

Will it? Is an AFL team the difference between many people staying in a place or leaving it? I'd argue the bigger factors are jobs, affordable housing and social life (which is linked to the restaurant/bar scene). I think Tasmania deserves a team because of their contribution to the game, but I really doubt it'll make much difference to the economy or the population.

If the Tasmanian government had invested in affordable housing and good internet, they might have been able to attract a lot of tree changers who can work from home, and I think that would be more beneficial to reversing demographic decline than an AFL team.

Probably not the difference, but it’s going to help the profile of the location, helping the economy with tourism dollars for the social improvements and being on the national stage to defeat the mainland. I think of what the crows did for SA getting into the big league and then that 97 premiership in getting victorias cup. The eagles probably more as they did it first.

It won’t be an overnight thing, but I find it hard to see the negatives.

Sydney Olympics putting the whole country on the world stage. This will be a very small version for Tasmania….. if setup correctly imo

 

[sdfc]

The Commonwealth should fund the stadium, it'll be a better investment than pissing money away on subs we'll never get.

 

[catters05]

The Commonwealth should fund the stadium, it'll be a better investment pissing money away on subs we'll never get.

Yep, what a joke that is.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Probably not the difference, but it’s going to help the profile of the location,

That doesn't pay the bills.

helping the economy with tourism dollars for the social improvements

I'd argue this is unlikely to pay back the cost of the new stadium, and they already get decent tourist dollars from their existing arrangements. This is fundamentally about Tasmanians, not so much tourists.

and being on the national stage to defeat the mainland.

Also does not pay the bills.

I think of what the crows did for SA getting into the big league and then that 97 premiership in getting victorias cup. The eagles probably more as they did it first.

Has that made SA a more attractive place to live? I feel like Adelaide has grown slower than every other mainland state capital in that time.

It won’t be an overnight thing, but I find it hard to see the negatives.

The negative is the cost of the stadium when Tasmania is already facing a budget crisis and demographic stagnation. I think the AFL should have given Tasmania a team without requiring a new stadium at taxpayer expense, because it's the right thing to do. But the AFL are run by money-grubbing suits.

Sydney Olympics putting the whole country on the world stage. This will be a very small version for Tasmania….. if setup correctly imo

The Olympics are a bigger spectacle, and I've never seen an analysis saying Sydney came out ahead from it. If the idea is that it's a form of advertising in the hope of making money in future (unsure how though), I'd still say the opportunity cost of the stadium has to be factored in, and spending that kind of money on affordable housing, something that's hard to find anywhere else in Australia, would have been very useful.

 

[sdfc]

Just get them in worry about the Stadium later. Bring in the mighty Swannie Districts as the 20th team and it's an extra game to sell.

 

[RedV3x]

I reckon

Amateurs reckon - professionals play football
.

 

[catters05]

That doesn't pay the bills.


I'd argue this is unlikely to pay back the cost of the new stadium, and they already get decent tourist dollars from their existing arrangements. This is fundamentally about Tasmanians, not so much tourists.


Also does not pay the bills.


Has that made SA a more attractive place to live? I feel like Adelaide has grown slower than every other mainland state capital in that time.


The negative is the cost of the stadium when Tasmania is already facing a budget crisis and demographic stagnation. I think the AFL should have given Tasmania a team without requiring a new stadium at taxpayer expense, because it's the right thing to do. But the AFL are run by money-grubbing suits.


The Olympics are a bigger spectacle, and I've never seen an analysis saying Sydney came out ahead from it. If the idea is that it's a form of advertising in the hope of making money in future (unsure how though), I'd still say the opportunity cost of the stadium has to be factored in, and spending that kind of money on affordable housing, something that's hard to find anywhere else in Australia, would have been very useful.

IMO money needs to be spent to attract people who will spend money and invest in the location to attract others to live in the location to get more of those returns.

Going to be a big difference in tourism between 4 games and 11 or 12, especially with the big Vic’s travelling.

Affordable housing ain’t going to help if there are no jobs or employers for these individuals. The Govt should be trying to boost and attract business opportunities in Tas to assist with then investing in affordable housing.

I am more interested in would the stadium and the whole complex near that TCA ground be a better spot so that mac point could be used for residential and commercial in the future as I don’t think a stadium needs to be on the water.

All imo, I am one that is excited about Tasmania’s opportunity and the positive impact it could have on the state.

I’d rather the govt spend on a stadium than a bunch of submarines.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

IMO money needs to be spent to attract people who will spend money and invest in the location to attract others to live in the location to get more of those returns.

How does an AFL team do that, compared to increasing the population, or even subsiding businesses to create more jobs? I'd argue things like affordable housing can't really be provided by private investment in this economy, or it would have happened at scale by now.

Going to be a big difference in tourism between 4 games and 11 or 12, especially with the big Vic’s travelling.

Remember that for the previous games there were fans of two teams travelling to Tasmania, now there are just fans of one team travelling. So it's really 11 vs 8. Not much of an increase considering the amount the AFL want the Tasmanian taxpayer to invest.

Affordable housing ain’t going to help if there are no jobs or employers for these individuals.

As I said above, lots of people can work from home these days if they have a good internet connection. Someone working from home for a job based in Sydney might be attracted to the prospect of being able to afford a property in Tasmania while still being able to do their job remotely.

The Govt should be trying to boost and attract business opportunities in Tas to assist with then investing in affordable housing.

This isn't an argument for a stadium, but for subsidising businesses to create jobs.

I am more interested in would the stadium and the whole complex near that TCA ground be a better spot so that mac point could be used for residential and commercial in the future as I don’t think a stadium needs to be on the water.

There's a whole Hobart stadium analysis report that investigated this and decided the TCA ground was worse for multiple reasons. You can find it on the internet.

I’d rather the govt spend on a stadium than a bunch of submarines.

I would too for the federal government, but the issue is the Tasmanian state government is spending close to a billion dollars on a stadium while their debt levels are rising quickly and their population is stagnating.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Nice write up. Something that is normally missed from these population analysis per team, is the support for interstate teams.

For example, in WA, it’s hard to put a number on it, but it seems like half of AFL fans support West Coast, a quarter support Freo and then the other quarter support the other 16 teams. Essentially dividing the support up between 3 teams.

In VIC, there is still massive support for Swans and Lions as well as a bit for the other non-Victorians which makes it like there is 11 teams in VIC.

On the flip side, the amount of support there are for the Victorian teams in the other states, the VIC teams probably only have 3/4 of their supporters actually in Victoria, with the other 1/4 living in other states helping to bolster their viability with ‘interstate memberships’ and merchandise purchases.

Edit: so this might change the tally a bit, if we considers Aussie Rules interest in each location is divided by one additional team (being a amalgamation of all of the interstate teams from that location).

Also interesting the stats for a Sydney and Perth if a new team was actually added. But it is important to note that a new team added in the markets isn’t just going to instantly get a fair proportion of the population supporting them, or even necessarily ever catch up over time, they will struggle just like how in Victoria there are the big clubs vs the small clubs and we don’t need to be just adding small clubs for the sake of it.

Sydney:
554,540 for 2 existing
369,690 for 3 (factoring supporters of interstate teams)
277,270 for 4 (if a 3rd Sydney team was added)

Brisbane/Gold Coast:
402,936 for 2 existing
268,620 for 3 (factoring supporters of interstate teams)

Melbourne/Geelong:
302,712 for 10 existing
275,190 for 11 (factoring supporters of interstate teams)

Adelaide:
399,505 for 2 existing
266,330 for 3 (factoring supporters of interstate teams)

Perth:
560,895 for 2 existing
373,930 for 3 (factoring supporters of interstate teams)
280,440 for 4 (if a 3rd Perth team was added)

Tasmania:
310,341 for 1 existing supporters of interstate team
155,170 for 2 (factoring the Devils starting in 2027)

Was reminded of this again. I wonder if it's fair to take a small, parochial market like Tasmania and count it as having two whole teams after the Devils come in. Are there going to be that many people who will support other AFL teams without supporting the Devils? The effect of counting support for other clubs as one extra team is greater on a market with one club than with two (50% reduction rather than 33%) and Tasmania has fewer migrants from other states than SEQ or Perth would.

So, I suggest that for Tasmania (and potentially Canberra), perhaps it's better to consider the number of teams after expansion to be 1.5 instead of 2. This would give Tasmania 206,887 AFL supporters per team, still lower than the other markets but the difference isn't so stark.

 

[catters05]

How does an AFL team do that, compared to increasing the population, or even subsiding businesses to create more jobs? I'd argue things like affordable housing can't really be provided by private investment in this economy, or it would have happened at scale by now.


Remember that for the previous games there were fans of two teams travelling to Tasmania, now there are just fans of one team travelling. So it's really 11 vs 8. Not much of an increase considering the amount the AFL want the Tasmanian taxpayer to invest.


As I said above, lots of people can work from home these days if they have a good internet connection. Someone working from home for a job based in Sydney might be attracted to the prospect of being able to afford a property in Tasmania while still being able to do their job remotely.


This isn't an argument for a stadium, but for subsidising businesses to create jobs.


There's a whole Hobart stadium analysis report that investigated this and decided the TCA ground was worse for multiple reasons. You can find it on the internet.


I would too for the federal government, but the issue is the Tasmanian state government is spending close to a billion dollars on a stadium while their debt levels are rising quickly and their population is stagnating.

IMO, how are you increasing the population if you are not increasing the attractions for that population? It’s one of the reasons young people leave Tasmania.

The stadium will offer a lot more events than AFL and cricket which opens up more spending in the city etc from locals and tourists. We all have to get passed thinking this is just an AFL stadium.

WFH Melbourne people rushed to Sunshine Coast during Covid due to cheaper properties, bought them up and then they realised they didn’t have the same attractions as Melbourne so complained and some moved back whilst impacting the property market for locals and younger generations trying to buy at home.

Wfh, it’s great if people can do it, but overall you want a population moving down to enjoy moving down, not to escape moving from a more expensive city and then finding a way to get back up to that more expensive city. Also, isn’t business trying to eliminate wfh now?

I still think the feds should be spending more on it then the tassie govt and investing more into Tasmania to help bring those businesses into Tasmania as well, to help with people moving down and then building those more affordable properties, but you can’t build them if there is no sustainable jobs for individuals.

Anyway, it’s all just my opinion, hopefully the internet still allows this and it’s good to get each others views and I am sure we agree to disagree.

 

[Walshawk]

Southern Australia is now heading into a brutal winter.
In an elite level sport this has to have an effect on training performance skill and the standard of game. It's where current teams in warmer climates will have a natural advantage.
Putting that to one side the 20th team is basically contingent on Tassie coming in. Which I think will. But if the so called "cold climate " means their state is bankrupted as a result with a roofed stadium what does that say about Canberra? The ACT winter climate is worse. Do we need another roofed stadium fiasco?
Darwin offers a national balance a natural climate advantage in the winter months and is absolutely passionate about footy with growth potential to cater for the whole North of the continent. An obvious choice

Except you can’t play in Darwin for the first two months of the season. Any the humidity means sloppy, low standard games. Pass.

 

[Coolangatta]

Except you can’t play in Darwin for the first two months of the season. Any the humidity means sloppy, low standard games. Pass.

What’s the maximum number of games that they could play in Darwin in a season?

 

[Bjo187]

Will it? Is an AFL team the difference between many people staying in a place or leaving it? I'd argue the bigger factors are jobs, affordable housing and social life (which is linked to the restaurant/bar scene). I think Tasmania deserves a team because of their contribution to the game, but I really doubt it'll make much difference to the economy or the population.

If the Tasmanian government had invested in affordable housing and good internet, they might have been able to attract a lot of tree changers who can work from home, and I think that would be more beneficial to reversing demographic decline than an AFL team.

I think it makes the place not seem as boring and outta the loop, something to do on weekends, national profile, something to talk about. Young and fit local celebrities to look up to. It all adds to the feeling of a place being more important and not as lame, especially to younger people.

 

[RedV3x]

This should interest Canberra Pear.

AFL growing in rugby-dominant region | Canberra Daily

Aussie Rules is on the rise in Canberra and the surrounding region, an area dominated by the rugby union and league.

canberradaily.com.au

 

[Canberra Pear]

This should interest Canberra Pear.

AFL growing in rugby-dominant region | Canberra Daily

Aussie Rules is on the rise in Canberra and the surrounding region, an area dominated by the rugby union and league.

canberradaily.com.au

It's great news for the local competition. Batemans Bay should draw from across the South Coast, so will hopefully be competitive early on.

I take umbrage with the line about rugby dominated though. We have more senior teams than rugby league, and a pretty similar number to union.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

IMO, how are you increasing the population if you are not increasing the attractions for that population? It’s one of the reasons young people leave Tasmania.

I think it makes the place not seem as boring and outta the loop, something to do on weekends, national profile, something to talk about. Young and fit local celebrities to look up to. It all adds to the feeling of a place being more important and not as lame, especially to younger people.

As I've said earlier, do you both think that an AFL team is going to be the difference between people leaving or staying in Tasmania? I think jobs, housing affordability and the restaurant/bar scene are all more important.

The stadium will offer a lot more events than AFL and cricket which opens up more spending in the city etc from locals and tourists. We all have to get passed thinking this is just an AFL stadium.

Will it? How do you respond to the point that it's expensive for bands to move all their equipment to Tasmania for a show, and it's easier for them logistically to simply play another show in Victoria instead?

WFH Melbourne people rushed to Sunshine Coast during Covid due to cheaper properties, bought them up and then they realised they didn’t have the same attractions as Melbourne so complained and some moved back whilst impacting the property market for locals and younger generations trying to buy at home.

Did they? Do you have proof many of them moved back? The population growth rate of the Sunshine Coast hasn't fallen off one bit. Again, creating affordable housing can lead to population growth.

Wfh, it’s great if people can do it, but overall you want a population moving down to enjoy moving down, not to escape moving from a more expensive city and then finding a way to get back up to that more expensive city. Also, isn’t business trying to eliminate wfh now?

Tasmania, with its demographic and economic issues, cannot afford to quibble over the reasons people move there so long as those people can support themselves financially. Let me know when business succeeds at eliminating WFH, particularly in IT, because I think the ones who try will face a mass staff walkout and be forced to pay a significant premium to keep them.

I still think the feds should be spending more on it then the tassie govt and investing more into Tasmania to help bring those businesses into Tasmania as well, to help with people moving down and then building those more affordable properties, but you can’t build them if there is no sustainable jobs for individuals.

Spending more on what? And yes you can build affordable housing regardless of how other industries are faring. In fact, a slowdown in other industries should depress local demand for construction workers, so it should be cheaper to build affordable housing in areas that aren't growing at a fast clip.

Unfortunately for Tasmania, I think that the federal government, regardless of the party in power, simply don't care that much about them, because they only have five federal electorates and aren't one of the economic drivers of the nation. The federal government are much more concerned with whether Sydney, Melbourne, South East Queensland and Perth are doing well, as they all have more electorates and are driving the nation's growth.

I agree the Feds should invest more in Tasmania, but they won't. Actually, by 2030 they'll start giving Tasmania less GST money. They signed a deal in 2018 to give WA more money, but are giving states like Tasmania a temporary boost to ensure they're no worse off than they would have been. But that's only until 2030.

 

[catters05]

As I've said earlier, do you both think that an AFL team is going to be the difference between people leaving or staying in Tasmania? I think jobs, housing affordability and the restaurant/bar scene are all more important.


Will it? How do you respond to the point that it's expensive for bands to move all their equipment to Tasmania for a show, and it's easier for them logistically to simply play another show in Victoria instead?


Did they? Do you have proof many of them moved back? The population growth rate of the Sunshine Coast hasn't fallen off one bit. Again, creating affordable housing can lead to population growth.


Tasmania, with its demographic and economic issues, cannot afford to quibble over the reasons people move there so long as those people can support themselves financially. Let me know when business succeeds at eliminating WFH, particularly in IT, because I think the ones who try will face a mass staff walkout and be forced to pay a significant premium to keep them.


Spending more on what? And yes you can build affordable housing regardless of how other industries are faring. In fact, a slowdown in other industries should depress local demand for construction workers, so it should be cheaper to build affordable housing in areas that aren't growing at a fast clip.

Unfortunately for Tasmania, I think that the federal government, regardless of the party in power, simply don't care that much about them, because they only have five federal electorates and aren't one of the economic drivers of the nation. The federal government are much more concerned with whether Sydney, Melbourne, South East Queensland and Perth are doing well, as they all have more electorates and are driving the nation's growth.

I agree the Feds should invest more in Tasmania, but they won't. Actually, by 2030 they'll start giving Tasmania less GST money. They signed a deal in 2018 to give WA more money, but are giving states like Tasmania a temporary boost to ensure they're no worse off than they would have been. But that's only until 2030.

Why is there more population growth in capital cities over cheaper housing regional areas which would have suitable internet for WFH? Because there isn’t much else to do, majority of younger people want to be where the action and attractions are.

If the federal govt wont invest in Tasmania because they don’t care, then that’s that and no one can do much about that. But for me, I’d be spending on this stadium rather than those submarines.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Why is there more population growth in capital cities over cheaper housing regional areas which would have suitable internet for WFH?

Because they mostly don't have suitable internet and regional house prices are growing just as fast. Areas like Byron Bay have huge prices.

Because there isn’t much else to do, majority of younger people want to be where the action and attractions are.

They want to be where the jobs, bars and restaurants are, more like. If you've ever heard of a young person claim they're choosing to stay in a city because there's an AFL team there, please do share the details.

If the federal govt wont invest in Tasmania because they don’t care, then that’s that and no one can do much about that. But for me, I’d be spending on this stadium rather than those submarines.

The federal government are already tipping money into this stadium, outside of Tasmania's GST allocation. Whereas other states have tended to fund their stadiums themselves, outside of international sports tournaments like the Olympics.

 

[Bjo187]

As I've said earlier, do you both think that an AFL team is going to be the difference between people leaving or staying in Tasmania? I think jobs, housing affordability and the restaurant/bar scene are all more important.

Like I said before I think the main element will be something to do, the state finally being on the national stage, famous young people locally to look up to etc.

I think as to your specific points, jobs yes, whether that's construction of the stadium, working for the club, the catering and staff at the stadium, working for AFL Tasmania with it's 380 mil investment from the afl hq, working in development, there is a huge amount goes into afl operations for a club or in this case a state.

Restaurants and bars will finally be stimulated and busy from having an inner city stadium with regular events, travelers from other parts of tassie and interstate young travelers to mingle with.

So yeah, obviously not a huge difference to population off a small base, but I think at least a noticeable difference and a reason for a lot more young people to wanna stay local and not move to the mainland with as much urgency.