20th AFL Team

[Canberra Pear]

And too me, Brisbane is a big enough city with enough Australian Rules supporters that beyond 2032, it also just "makes sense".

Well beyond 2032.

If the Lions were stuck at the Gabba, 2032 could make sense, but not with the current plans.

 

[loco3]

Well beyond 2032.

If the Lions were stuck at the Gabba, 2032 could make sense, but not with the current plans.

There’s a lot of talk about the risk/barriers to a second Brisbane team, but there are barriers for Canberra too.

For one, will the AFL actually want to move GWS on from Canberra by 2032? Their membership growth is sluggish and may need further time to develop. Giving them 11 games in Sydney when their attendances are low is risky, is similar to the situation you describe above - increasing available games when demand is still well below capacity.

All this talk about perils of low attendances/oversupply with Brisbane 2, but introducing Canberra will likely create a similar situation for GWS.

You can claim all you want that Canberra’s future should not be dictated by GWS’ fortunes, but the reality is they have a shared relationship that will be difficult for the AFL to sever in the short to medium term while their growth is underwhelming.

 

[hampton]

Aussie rules is already pretty well represented across Australia maybe we should pause team 20 until after the olympics and see where the chips fall. Team 20 location is not a slam dunk. For mine it would be Canberra but the gws situation puts it in murky waters, weakening gws just seems like not an option right now.

It’s a bit different for nrl team 20 who have viable options for expansion in nz2 or Brisbane3, or major markets they’re yet to enter like Adelaide.

 

[Bjo187]

The fact all the leaguies in here are so vehemently opposed to Brisbane 2 tells me they see it as a threat, which actually elevates it's appeal in my eyes. A North of Brisbane team playing 4 games on the Sunshine coast would be the way to go. It's a high risk high reward option. I still also like the Canberra and WA 3 options though.

I'm surprised nobody has posted this, Sen did a whole thing on team 20 the other day (all of the first 30min of the show), with guest speakers vouching for each area. Canberra they couldn't find anyone to call in despite asking the premier, Canberra pear you missed your moment.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Aussie rules is already pretty well represented across Australia maybe we should pause team 20 until after the olympics and see where the chips fall. Team 20 location is not a slam dunk. For mine it would be Canberra but the gws situation puts it in murky waters, weakening gws just seems like not an option right now.

It’s a bit different for nrl team 20 who have viable options for expansion in nz2 or Brisbane3, or major markets they’re yet to enter like Adelaide.

Team 20 is highly motivated by the unease in which uneven fixturing has - some weeks 1 team with a bye, some weeks 3 teams with a bye, some weeks where it's more ideal to have every team playing (the final round of the season, etc.).

They can live with it between Tassie's introduction and the end of the TV rights deal in 2031, but they wouldn't want it longer for that.

It's also only in your imagination, your reality, that NRL has "more viable" markets than the AFL. There's more AFL fans in Sunshine Coast than there are NRL fans in Adelaide, for instance.

 

[Canberra Pear]

There’s a lot of talk about the risk/barriers to a second Brisbane team, but there are barriers for Canberra too.

But Brisbane's major barrier is the timeframe.

It's just common sense to not add another team at the same time you're increasing capacity by so much.

For one, will the AFL actually want to move GWS on from Canberra by 2032? Their membership growth is sluggish and may need further time to develop. Giving them 11 games in Sydney when their attendances are low is risky, is similar to the situation you describe above - increasing available games when demand is still well below capacity.

Is it sluggish? It’s grown for the past seven seasons. And what would really help it grow it a full-time team.

All this talk about perils of low attendances/oversupply with Brisbane 2, but introducing Canberra will likely create a similar situation for GWS.

Not really the same. The Giants capacity will increase 37%, and it’s sorely needed. Or a 16% overall increase of footy capacity in the city.

Whereas getting a second Brisbane team at the same time as the new stadium will increase capacity by more than 250%

You can claim all you want that Canberra’s future should not be dictated by GWS’ fortunes, but the reality is they have a shared relationship that will be difficult for the AFL to sever in the short to medium term while their growth is underwhelming.

You're right. It's not up to me. But the AFL should be cautious with the Canberra-Giants relationship.

I, and many Canberrans, are grateful for what the Giants have provided to the city.

But there's a growing belief, even expectation, amongst Canberrans that the 20th team should be ours.

If the Giants are the reason we miss out on a team of our own, that relationship will sour pretty quickly. I can see what happened to North crowds in Hobart being replicated here.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

But there's a growing belief, even expectation, amongst Canberrans that the 20th team should be ours.

What's your basis for this assertion?

 

[hampton]

Team 20 is highly motivated by the unease in which uneven fixturing has - some weeks 1 team with a bye, some weeks 3 teams with a bye, some weeks where it's more ideal to have every team playing (the final round of the season, etc.).

They can live with it between Tassie's introduction and the end of the TV rights deal in 2031, but they wouldn't want it longer for that.

It's also only in your imagination, your reality, that NRL has "more viable" markets than the AFL. There's more AFL fans in Sunshine Coast than there are NRL fans in Adelaide, for instance.

It’s better to wait and get the next team right as opposed to rushing one in because of byes. Realistically we need to see how Brisbane goes in the new stadium post olympics and not just in the first year or two when there will be a post Olympics and new stadium halo effect. Also we need to see gws stand on its own before taking Canberra away from them. So that affects 2 of the 3 most logical locations. Getting either wrong could create a drastically bad situation for existing teams.

WA3 is therefore the option with the most clear air, if the afl felt like they had to have a 20th team in place by 2032.

NRL is in a similar situation with Brisbane3 as afl is with wa3, but with the bigger population in Brisbane and SEQ in general and very well established and wealthy QRL clubs chomping at the bit to get into the nrl like Brisbane Tigers and Ipswich jets the path is clear. WA3 for afl doesn’t have as much of a clear path and opportunity as Brisbane3 has for the nrl but it’s still the best option for afl.

However NZ2 is also just as viable with the warriors selling out every game the last 2 years and multiple bids for a Christchurch team already in place.

Adelaide is ripe for a nrl team it does not have the demand but it’s a capital city market with no other nrl team and a big enough population at 1.5m to support it. AFL have already added teams to all the major capital cities, where there was demand or not.

 

[Canberra Pear]

What's your basis for this assertion?

General conversations and online comments.

 

[____]

Bloody hell, I'm not claiming that nobody North of the river supports the Lions. Just that there's a natural divide if and when a Brisbane 2 team comes in, and that from an admin base point of view, there's a natural dividing line for the new Brisbane 2 team to target and put their training/admin/VFL/AFLW base at, because Lions have already pitched their tent in Springfield. People in Fremantle supported the Eagles between 87-94, too.


And too me, Brisbane is a big enough city with enough Australian Rules supporters that beyond 2032, it also just "makes sense".

The Eagles hadn't even been around for a decade when Fremantle came in.

There are people with kids who weren't even born when the Brisbane Bears merged with Fitzroy to become the Brisbane Lions.

Brisbane already has a team, a team that will be playing North of the river after 2032. This team is established as the Brisbane team. No one in Brisbane is jumping ship.

The Sunshine Coast currently doesn't have a team. A lot of AFL fans and maybe even people who don't have AFL teams yet will support a Sunshine Coast team.

It's the same reason why the AFL is putting a team in Tasmania rather than putting a team in say Dandenong, Casey, Pakenham or Frankston. The areas of those four LGA's combined are way larger than Tasmania, plus there's already the MCG and Docklands so using your logic they should get a team.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The fact all the leaguies in here are so vehemently opposed to Brisbane 2 tells me they see it as a threat, which actually elevates it's appeal in my eyes. A North of Brisbane team playing 4 games on the Sunshine coast would be the way to go. It's a high risk high reward option. I still also like the Canberra and WA 3 options though.

I'm surprised nobody has posted this, Sen did a whole thing on team 20 the other day (all of the first 30min of the show), with guest speakers vouching for each area. Canberra they couldn't find anyone to call in despite asking the premier, Canberra pear you missed your moment.

They actually asked me, but I didn't get back to them quick enough. I don't have my phone on me at work so I didn't get the message in time. I think I was clearly a back up option to the Chief Minister though.

Devastated I missed the opportunity, but I think they gave a pretty good case for Canberra in my absence.

 

[hampton]

Putting an afl team on the Sunshine Coast is very unrealistic to be talking about. It’s a smaller regional area so already the max opportunity size is limited. Plus it’s rugby league turf and any new team would be competing for attention in an already smaller population area. Plus regional areas like this are not in favour with tv broadcasters as teams based in capital city metros. There’s also the obvious lack of infrastructure.

Just because there’s a few thousand Victorian’s that moved there and there’s some good local participation of afl doesn’t make it a clear opportunity to put an AFL team, at least not anytime soon.

 

[loco3]

But Brisbane's major barrier is the timeframe.

It's just common sense to not add another team at the same time you're increasing capacity by so much.



Is it sluggish? It’s grown for the past seven seasons. And what would really help it grow it a full-time team.



Not really the same. The Giants capacity will increase 37%, and it’s sorely needed. Or a 16% overall increase of footy capacity in the city.

Whereas getting a second Brisbane team at the same time as the new stadium will increase capacity by more than 250%



You're right. It's not up to me. But the AFL should be cautious with the Canberra-Giants relationship.

I, and many Canberrans, are grateful for what the Giants have provided to the city.

But there's a growing belief, even expectation, amongst Canberrans that the 20th team should be ours.

If the Giants are the reason we miss out on a team of our own, that relationship will sour pretty quickly. I can see what happened to North crowds in Hobart being replicated here.

But the timeframe question also applies to Canberra. You don’t give GWS more games in Sydney when their growth is modest. A capacity increase is definitely not needed. Whats needed is time to establish themselves.

And yes, their numbers have been growing, but very modestly:

2022: 32,614
2023: 33,036
2024: 36,629
2025: 37,705

That’s an increase by 5k in 3 years. Honestly very poor. By contrast, the suns memberships grew by almost 9k, and that’s without playing regular finals. If anything, it suggests that the culture in SEQ is receptive to AFL, while GWS needs nurturing for a while to come.

Of course a passionate Canberran will have a belief that their city needs a team - that’s only natural. That doesn’t mean they have a faultless case. There are other aspects at play.

 

[Canberra Pear]

But the timeframe question also applies to Canberra. You don’t give GWS more games in Sydney when their growth is modest. A capacity increase is definitely not needed. Whats needed is time to establish themselves.

And yes, their numbers have been growing, but very modestly:

2022: 32,614
2023: 33,036
2024: 36,629
2025: 37,705

That’s an increase by 5k in 3 years. Honestly very poor. By contrast, the suns memberships grew by almost 9k, and that’s without playing regular finals.

Of course a passionate Canberran will have a belief that their city needs a team - that’s only natural. That doesn’t mean they have a faultless case. There are other aspects at play.

Have you read any of the conversations from Giants fans about growth in Western Sydney?

Half of their complaints are the lack of momentum caused by having a part-time team. The Giants half-arsing it in two markets is preventing them from growing faster in their main market.

The Giants need to leave Canberra as soon as they can.

 

[hampton]

The fact all the leaguies in here are so vehemently opposed to Brisbane 2 tells me they see it as a threat, which actually elevates it's appeal in my eyes. A North of Brisbane team playing 4 games on the Sunshine coast would be the way to go. It's a high risk high reward option. I still also like the Canberra and WA 3 options though.

I'm surprised nobody has posted this, Sen did a whole thing on team 20 the other day (all of the first 30min of the show), with guest speakers vouching for each area. Canberra they couldn't find anyone to call in despite asking the premier, Canberra pear you missed your moment.

A Sunshine Coast based team makes a lot less sense than a second Brisbane team based in the north or west Brisbane. A regional area with 350k people competing against rugby league and also trying to gain support from traditional Brisbane lions support base?

For leaguies it’s irrelevant. There’s already 3 nrl SEQ teams and likely a 4th coming. Put the 20th team there, competing against the lions and also the broncos and dolphins, and then afl gives nrl space in WA for bears to thrive and also clear air to the raiders in Canberra while giving gws a bad smell to the ACT locals.

It’s this danger that the afl faces in lots of ways right now, with the emphasis on the northern states and qld specifically. If they do decide to put another team soon in seq they could just be cannibalising the lions support while ignoring WA as they have already been doing could be dangerous

 

[Canberra Pear]

Just because there’s a few thousand Victorian’s that moved there and there’s some good local participation of afl doesn’t make it a clear opportunity to put an AFL team, at least not anytime soon.

Not any time soon, but the Sunshine Coast could easily be a contender for Team 21.

Realistically, it could be 2050-2060 before the next round of expansion.

By 2050, the Sunshine Coast will likely have overtaken Newcastle to be Australia's seventh largest city.

With the NRL's list of priorities means the Sunshine Coast likely won't have a winter major football team any time soon. That's a Queensland city of 750k-800k people (by then) that the AFL could plant their flag first.

 

[hampton]

Not any time soon, but the Sunshine Coast could easily be a contender for Team 21.

Realistically, it could be 2050-2060 before the next round of expansion.

By 2050, the Sunshine Coast will likely have overtaken Newcastle to be Australia's seventh largest city.

With the NRL's list of priorities means the Sunshine Coast likely won't have a winter major football team any time soon. That's a Queensland city of 750k-800k people (by then) that the AFL could plant their flag first.

It’s hardly an area left unsupported by rugby league. Dolphins being a north of Brisbane club extend their reach to the Sunshine Coast for one. Sunshine Coast stadium gets used by the dolphins as a home venue, their development and pathways footprint extends over the whole Moreton bay to Sunshine Coast district. It’s part of why they’re called The Dolphins not Brisbane Dolphins or Redcliffe Dolphins.

There is also the Sunshine Coast Falcons qrl team based there plus extensive pathways programs.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Not any time soon, but the Sunshine Coast could easily be a contender for Team 21.

Realistically, it could be 2050-2060 before the next round of expansion.

By 2050, the Sunshine Coast will likely have overtaken Newcastle to be Australia's seventh largest city.

With the NRL's list of priorities means the Sunshine Coast likely won't have a winter major football team any time soon. That's a Queensland city of 750k-800k people (by then) that the AFL could plant their flag first.

By 2050 the NRL will have Brisbane 3 and probably within 5 years and another North Queensland club in about 10 years, and aren't the Dolphins doing a lot of work with Juniors on the Sunshine Coast?

 

[Purple Suit]

Not any time soon, but the Sunshine Coast could easily be a contender for Team 21.

Realistically, it could be 2050-2060 before the next round of expansion.

By 2050, the Sunshine Coast will likely have overtaken Newcastle to be Australia's seventh largest city.

With the NRL's list of priorities means the Sunshine Coast likely won't have a winter major football team any time soon. That's a Queensland city of 750k-800k people (by then) that the AFL could plant their flag first.

Why bother though? Brisbane will be huge so if you need another team then better to just use the existing 63k stadium. This only becomes necessary once Brisbane caps out of capacity during good and bad years. Teams are only going to get more expensive over time so a future population of 700k won’t be enough by the time they get there.

Any new team in any location doesn’t really bring in brand news fans as every state has a team. Or in Canberra’s /NT’s case, they have visiting teams.

Regional locations without the population just have to be happy they get an occasional game or pre-season fixture. 100km from a city? Just drive. The only reason Tassie will go ahead is because the State government will bankroll them for tourism opportunities.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It’s hardly an area left unsupported by rugby league. Dolphins being a north of Brisbane club extend their reach to the Sunshine Coast for one. Sunshine Coast stadium gets used by the dolphins as a home venue, their development and pathways footprint extends over the whole Moreton bay to Sunshine Coast district. They have the Sunshine Coast Falcons qrl team based there plus extensive pathways programs.

Doesn't change the fact that they don't have their own top flight football team.

A few games a year from a team based up the highway isn't the same as having your own team.

It'll be something to decide some time in a few decades as to whether they'd prefer a second Brisbane team or a Sunshine Coast team. Guess it'll depend on how consistently the Lions are selling out by then.

But being the only major team in Queensland's third largest city definitely has some appeal.

 

[hampton]

Doesn't change the fact that they don't have their own top flight football team.

A few games a year from a team based up the highway isn't the same as having your own team.

It'll be something to decide some time in a few decades as to whether they'd prefer a second Brisbane team or a Sunshine Coast team. Guess it'll depend on how consistently the Lions are selling out by then.

But being the only major team in Queensland's third largest city definitely has some appeal.

They are also upgrading Sunshine Coast stadium to have 11k seats with extra seating on the hill which will mean it can support an nrl game in future by the dolphins. I can see them playing 10 games at Suncorp, 1 in Redcliffe and 1 on the Sunshine Coast. The Dolphins represent that area.

These smaller regional centres will make less and less sense to have dedicated afl or nrl teams in the future. The economics don’t stack up.

You’re talking about the Sunshine Coast going to 600-700k in 25 years time. By then Brisbane will be so much bigger and the whole SEQ area will merge as one big conglomerate city with 6 million people. If by then Brisbane can’t support another afl team, and you’re relying on Sunshine Coast for a team, then the afl has bigger problems.

 

[Canberra Pear]

They are also upgrading Sunshine Coast stadium to have 11k seats with extra seating on the hill which will mean it can support an nrl game in future by the dolphins. I can see them playing 10 games at Suncorp, 1 in Redcliffe and 1 on the Sunshine Coast. The Dolphins represent that area.

These smaller regional centres will make less and less sense to have dedicated afl or nrl teams in the future. The economics don’t stack up.

You’re talking about the Sunshine Coast going to 600-700k in 25 years time. By then Brisbane will be so much bigger and the whole SEQ area will merge as one big conglomerate city with 6 million people. If by then Brisbane can’t support another afl team, and you’re relying on Sunshine Coast for a team, then the afl has bigger problems.

You're right, a second team in Brisbane is definitely more desirable.

It just relies much more on the Lions' off-field performance before pulling the trigger.

You'd hope the Lions are constantly selling out Victoria Park by then. And then a second Brisbane team would make more sense.