20th AFL Team

[hampton]

My god you're living in your own reality and you're pigheaded.

Nobody is making the claim that the AFL is an immensely popular competition in the cities of Brisbane and Sydney.

It's just that - Sydney population 5.5 million
Brisbane population 2.8 million
Auckland population 1.8 million
Christchurch population 500,000

Sydney and Brisbane have enough people that their AFL teams can be very successful, even if you split hairs on the extent of its popularity or whether you want to call it "niche" or not.

Rugby League can be more popular in a relative sense in Christchurch but its still doing it in a city of 500,000 people, making it reasonable that there could be doubts that there's enough of an interest base to make a team viable. Again, nobody here is saying that the NRL won't put a team in Christchurch (something that you've invested in your own head) or that it is guaranteed not to be successful, we're merely pushing back against your own language that you're 100% confident that it will be a success.

This isn't rocket science.

The point i made was that Christchurch would be a solid candidate for an nrl team. Which it is. And more suitable and viable than any of the 3 potential candidates for afl team 20, but not even the most suitable or viable option for the nrl (Ipswich being more viable).

Population total is not the whole story. Nz produces a disproportionately large number of players into nrl. Way way more than anything that comes out of the northern states for afl. Despite their much much larger populations.

Even based on population, it has a bigger or at least equivalent population than any of the 3 options that the afl has for team 20.

Based on the popularity of the nrl in nz which as I’ve shown with actual references to data - google trends, crowds, tv figures, elite players etc - Christchurch and Ipswich make more viable options for the nrl than Canberra (smaller market and shared with GWS), WA2 (no real push for this, already covered with 2 teams) or Brisbane2 (too early, northern states already have 2 clubs that are struggling) have for the afl. Let’s not even talk about NT.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I honestly don't get the point.

We have an NRL propagandist on an AFL forum who spouts untruths, refuses to engaged with people making reasonable corrections, uses inflammatory language that is easily disproven, to what end? Absolutely zero people here have been convinced by any of their arguments, such that they are poorly made.

Every primary AFL fan here is happy to agree that the NRL has found some success in recent years - the rapid growth of crowd attendances attests to that, and no AFL fan will deny an NRL fan that fact of life. But steadfast refusal to acknowledge the fact that e.g. perhaps a city of 500,000 people cannot support a RL team where RL is not a primary sport of interest achieves nothing. They're not going to convince people that sees reality with their own eyes, and not through the tinted lenses of pro-everything-the-NRL-does-is-good-and-correct propaganda.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The point i made was that Christchurch would be a solid candidate for an nrl team.

No, you're explicitly now walking back the point that you made and continued to defend:

NZ2 would also be a no brainer in Christchurch. lowest of low hanging fruit for the nrl

"solid candidate" and "no brainer... lowest hanging fruit" are not the same thing.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

it has a bigger or at least equivalent population than any of the 3 options that the afl has for team 20.

You continue to deny that there are fewer current RL fans in Christchurch - in fact, far fewer by factors of tens of thousands - than there are AFL fans in Canberra.

You are not going to convince anyone else that this fact is untrue, we're all capable of critical thinking skills that you aren't.

 

[hampton]

I'm not saying it is, but one specific set of data cherry-picked for the Raiders' most successful year in ages doesn't negate it either.

The AFL v NRL popularity debate in Canberra has been raging for decades and it's more nuanced than one data point can sum up.

Sorry the trend is the same over the last 5 years not just the last 12 months.

 

[hampton]

No, you're explicitly now walking back the point that you made and continued to defend:

"solid candidate" and "no brainer... lowest hanging fruit" are not the same thing.

It is a no brainer.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Again make believe. This data shows it’s not 50/50 it’s more like 70/30 split and 60/40 at best.

70/30 is ridiculous. I'm biased, but my guess would be 55/45 in favour on NRL.

Of all the workplaces I've been in Canberra, I'd say it's actually been close to 70/30 in favour of AFL. And the majority of NRL fans have had an AFL team they follow, too. But I recognise that isn't necessarily reflective of the whole city.

I see a pretty even split of merch when I'm out and about.

But it won't be easy to judge until we both have our own teams.

Badger17 would probably be the best to give a more neutral estimate on the split.

 

[hampton]

You continue to deny that there are fewer current RL fans in Christchurch - in fact, far fewer by factors of tens of thousands - than there are AFL fans in Canberra.

You are not going to convince anyone else that this fact is untrue, we're all capable of critical thinking skills that you aren't.

First we were talking about total population potentials and what each club location can do for their sport, and now you’re trying to figure out total numbers of fans in each city which is something we can never know exactly?

Here’s another way to look at it for you. A Christchurch nrl team will be a way bigger impact for the sport of rugby league and the NRL than the impact a Canberra team would have on the afl.

 

[hampton]

70/30 is ridiculous. I'm biased, but my guess would be 55/45 in favour on NRL.

Of all the workplaces I've been in Canberra, I'd say it's actually been close to 70/30 in favour of AFL. And the majority of NRL fans have had an AFL team they follow, too. But I recognise that isn't necessarily reflective of the whole city.

I see a pretty even split of merch when I'm out and about.

But it won't be easy to judge until we both have our own teams.

Badger17 would probably be the best to give a more neutral estimate on the split.

I’m just basing that on the google trends data alone, rather than anecdotal stuff.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It is a no brainer.

There is enough doubt that a city where RL is a minority support will attend and support their team enough to make a team viable.

Newcastle is a city of similar size that is RL mad but consistently leaves empty seats in their stadium for a long term trend average of just over 21k attendance size.

The idea that a less RL mad Christchurch might drop below around the 18k average attendance mark that is needed to make an NRL team viable in this context instils enough doubt in the potential interest of people from Christchurch into their NRL team, using critical thinking capabilities (that I have demonstrated in this post), to show that it is absolutely not a no-brainer, that is, there is zero reason for doubt that a team could be viable and successful.

For the millionth time, this is not to say that the long term success for a Christchurch is unlikely, it is likely even. But there is a big difference in the words of the English language to leap from "probably successful, it is more likely than not" to "this is a no brainer with zero reason for doubt".

Honestly, what's the point here? All of us on this thread are capable of using our brains to come up with a similar assessment that I have here, and presumably the people at NRL HQ will be doing something similar to me and working through the details. What exactly are you trying to achieve here? You're just inventing a new reality for yourself but doing so in such a poor way that you can't even convince people otherwise. Why waste your time? You should be quite aware that you've convinced exactly 0 people who frequent the BigFooty Footy Industry board of your views. Even when I post on the Western Bulldogs BigFooty thread about how Ryan Gardner isn't actually all that bad of a player, I convince at least one person when I do.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I’m just basing that on the google trends data alone, rather than anecdotal stuff.

Which is why I said you can't base it on one set of data is such a nuanced topic.

 

[hampton]

It was a no brainer for the afl to add gws into an area that is hostile to afl, and persevere over the years, but it’s not a no brainer to add an nrl team to a city where league is popular and also union fans not being hostile to league, a city that produces top nrl talent and in a country that is showing through crowd figures and tv figures that there’s untapped demand for more nrl content? Where rugby league as a sport is reaching new found levels of popularity by both players and fans? Where the top rugby team is a league team in NZ, a union stronghold?

If anything it would be stupid of the nrl not to put a team there and piggy back and accelerate that growth.

Honestly the mind boggles.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Was discussing this on the Tasmania thread, but got told to move it over here.

I think it's worth noting that while Tasmania has gone through so much to get their team, I don't think the burden will be as high for the 20th team - whether it's a third Perth team or Canberra.

Firstly, Tasmania really forced the AFL's hand. Expansion wasn't on the radar in that timeframe. The AFL gave Tasmania ridiculous hurdles, but they've met them, and now cleared the path for the 20th team.

We've established Perth is a big market, it's got already got a suitable stadium. It's not without its problems, but it will long-term be an easier set up than Tasmania.

Canberra is also a bigger market than Tasmania. Greater Canberra has more than double the population of Greater Hobart; its population growth is much greater; plus its median income is 54% higher. Canberra will have government funding (which all Canberran sports teams get), but they don't need "Tassie level money" to be sustainable.

Unless the NT somehow miraculously gets up, I expect Team 20 to be more able to stand on their own than Team 19 (less distro, less govt funding etc). That being said, bring on Tasmania!

I've mentioned it in this thread before, but a Canberra side playing a home game in each of Albury/Wodonga and Wagga every year, and essentially taking ownership of that entire Riverina area and down to the Victorian border, is a way to ensure that future growth for the popularity of a Canberra side has a real shot at it.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It was a no brainer for the afl to add gws into an area that is hostile to afl, and persevere over the years, but it’s not a no brainer to add an nrl team to a city where league is popular and also union fans not being hostile to league, a city that produces top nrl talent and in a country that is showing through crowd figures and tv figures that there’s untapped demand for more nrl content? Where rugby league as a sport is reaching new found levels of popularity by both players and fans? Where the top rugby team is a league team in NZ, a union stronghold?

Honestly the mind boggles.

Has anybody actually called GWS a no-brainer?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It was a no brainer for the afl to add gws into an area that is hostile to afl, and persevere over the years, but it’s not a no brainer to add an nrl team to a city where league is popular and also union fans not being hostile to league, a city that produces top nrl talent and in a country that is showing through crowd figures and tv figures that there’s untapped demand for more nrl content? Where rugby league as a sport is reaching new found levels of popularity by both players and fans? Where the top rugby team is a league team in NZ, a union stronghold?

If anything it would be stupid of the nrl not to put a team there and piggy back and accelerate that growth.

Honestly the mind boggles.

But you're completely missing the point that the AFL owns GWS and GC and will do so for the foreseeable future. There's no independent board for GC and GWS as there is (for example) for me as a Western Bulldogs member to use my power as a voting member to influence the decision making (and financial management) of the club. GWS and GC fans have none of this power, the financial management and organisational decision making is the AFL's.

The NRL isn't intending to have ownership over any new expansion team. They seek private investment in new teams, people fronting up money.

 

[The_Wookie]

tf does an nrl team in NZ have to do with this thread

 

[Blackhawk42]

Canberra and Riverina are completely seperate areas that vicorians love to lump together for some reason. People from the Riverina don’t consider themselves as Canberrans or anything close and vice versa. It’s not a match like you think it is, it’s a major stretch.

From a sporting perspective they are though.

Regional NSW kids in rugby league in that catchment are generally grabbed for the Raiders development squad if they're talented enough.

I, like plenty of guys I still play with, were part of the NSW/ACT Rams squad as teenagers.

Sport unites people. A Canberra AFL team would absolutely capture the hearts of the Riverina IMO.

 

[hampton]

Solid niche lol - the Swans are the biggest single club in Sydney by average attendance, membership and football derived revenue. The Lions just happen to be up against the Broncos, who are the biggest NRL club in terms of those numbers by quite some margin, but compared to most NRL clubs would be considered a juggernaut on attendance, membership and football revenue data.

Funding is something else entirely. The AFL funding system is not the same as the NRL one, and the AFL literally controls the Giants/Suns and Swans.

It does seem to cost quite a bit more to run an AFL club than an NRL one. NRL clubs receive 130% of the salary cap as a base. The base distribution for AFL clubs doesnt even cover the salary cap. Howewver both the Swans and Lions fall within their clubs share of the media rights, so I really couldnt give a damn what NRL flunkies think.

I think if the bulldogs, souths, dragons, tigers, eels or even roosters win the nrl grand final, the attention and turnout by fans in Sydney vs the attention when the swans win would tell you if the swans were really the biggest club in the city.

We definitely saw categorically which is the bigger club in Brisbane following this years nrl and afl grand finals

The swans have a very active passionate core group of fans, including myself. As well as a good amount of very casual fans. They’re doing great. But let’s not try to kid ourselves and use the swans average crowd figures as a proxy for some mass level of afl popularity in this city.

tv crowd figures are a much better proxy for this, of which the swans average way way down in comparison to other league clubs based in Sydney. Obviously you know this. If you’re going to use average crowds as a measure of popularity you would be doing a disservice to ignore tv figures in this assessment.

In comparison the warriors in nz, both their crowd and tv averages are well higher than their union competition, as well as large turnouts to away games and a major cultural impact made.

 

[The Educator]

Even though it’s not too late to delete this inane post, here’s some google trends objective data you guys love that shows how little interest afl has in comparison to nrl in the Canterbury region.

I can’t believe some of you are so delusional in here to think that league and afl are as popular as each other in major cities of nz. To even utter it is cringe worthy.

Is this guy genuinely this obtuse or is he trolling?

I'll dumb it down for you

popularity of RL in Christchurch <<<<<<<<< popularity of AF in Canberra

so to say

The point i made was that Christchurch would be a solid candidate for an nrl team. Which it is. And more suitable and viable than any of the 3 potential candidates for afl team 20

....is truly embarrassing


And I also call bullshit on this.....

Nz produces a disproportionately large number of players into nrl. Way way more than anything that comes out of the northern states for afl. Despite their much much larger populations.

There were apparenly 161 players in the NRL. It is likely more than half of those played most of their junior rugby league in Australia. i.e they are from the 600K kiwi born australian population

Of the remaining players that actually grew up in NZ, nearly all of them either were poached from union and / or came from Auckland. There wouldn't be more than a handfull of NRL players who grew up playing RL outside of the north of the north island

You are deluded

 

[Dirty Bird]

Again make believe. This data shows it’s not 50/50 it’s more like 70/30 split and 60/40 at best.

Cmon you were the one showing google trends data and now that it doesn’t suit your narrative it’s not useful anymore?

So predictable.

didn't you do the same to me when I used facts to point out crowds at Sydney SHwogrounds are bigger than Manuka? You brought up some excuse, not even making an argument, just deflecting?

 

[Canberra Pear]

From a sporting perspective they are though.

Regional NSW kids in rugby league in that catchment are generally grabbed for the Raiders development squad if they're talented enough.

I, like plenty of guys I still play with, were part of the NSW/ACT Rams squad as teenagers.

Sport unites people. A Canberra AFL team would absolutely capture the hearts of the Riverina IMO.

Do you mind if I ask where in the Riverina you're from?

I'm a bit unsold on grouping Albury with Canberra. Pretty much equidistant between Canberra and Melbourne by car, I figured it'd be harder to sway fans when we're as far away as the teams they already support. But happy to be proven wrong by someone who knows the area better.

I think the connection is stronger the further north of the border. I know lots of folks from Wagga in Canberra. As the nearest big city, lots already come here for work, study and sport. Last game at Manuka I saw a group with Turvey Park merch on. I can see a natural connection with Canberra and the region around Wagga.

 

[hampton]

didn't you do the same to me when I used facts to point out crowds at Sydney SHwogrounds are bigger than Manuka? You brought up some excuse, not even making an argument, just deflecting?

I said crowds should be bigger in Showgrounds, what deflecting? The fact crowds are ever bigger at Manuka is straight embarrassing.

It’s like if swans played in Gosford hypothetically and their Gosford crowds were bigger than their SCG crowds, even though the scg crowds were against bigger opposition.

I’m not denying your data.

 

[The Educator]

Crazy League dude one minute be like.....

Where the top rugby team is a league team in NZ, a union stronghold?

...and nek minute he be like

I think if the bulldogs, souths, dragons, tigers, eels or even roosters win the nrl grand final, the attention and turnout by fans in Sydney vs the attention when the swans win would tell you if the swans were really the biggest club in the city.

...thrashing around, desperately grasping

 

[hampton]

Crazy League dude one minute be like.....



...and nek minute he be like




...thrashing around, desperately grasping

One minute delusional afl zealot says that afl and league are equivalent in popularity in Christchurch. When presented evidence to show in fact rugby league is orders of magnitude more popular in Christchurch, chooses to ignore it and instead goes on some other maniacal tangent.

I don’t even understand the point you’re trying to make above.

 

[The Educator]

One minute delusional afl zealot says that afl and league are equivalent in popularity in Christchurch. When presented evidence to show in fact rugby league is orders of magnitude more popular in Christchurch, chooses to ignore it and instead goes on some other maniacal tangent.

One minute, deluded dumb dumb league fan shows he is barely literate and makes a nonsensical verballing.....

When it is as dumbed down as possible that:

popularity of RL in Christchurch <<<<<<<<< popularity of AF in Canberra

he refuses to engage......despite his entire cringeworthy claim that NRL in christchurch is "low hangin fruit" rests on this delusion

I don’t even understand the point you’re trying to make above.

The Swans are far bigger than any NRL clubs in Sydney - this is attested by attendance, membership, and surveys dating back decades. You are twisting yourself in knots to try and deny that straight after making the far more spurious claim about the popularity of the New Zealand Warriors

You are sooooo delusional!