Absolutely NOT.
The North Sydney Beears ceased elite competition when they unmerged with Manly.
Fitzroy continued playing elite football.
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20th AFL Team
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The North Sydney Beears ceased elite competition when they unmerged with Manly.
Fitzroy continued playing elite football.
It's not the same, but the Bears did continue, and will continue, to play in the second level NSW cup, so it's not like they stopped exisiting.
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Did they?
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This point made it over to League Unlimited.
The comments reinforce what you say. NRL takes Canberra for granted. LU folks seem to think of Canberra as one NRL bloc rather than the multi-code city it is.
There’s probably a few zealots over there just like there is over here.
Don’t think a few posters on LU are “the NRL”.
That's very self-reflective of you.
Yeah the Canberra discussion has been had on LU many, many times, and it's almost always 5-10 blokes from Queensland and Sydney, a couple of which lived in Canberra for a few years well over a decade ago, shouting down the 1 or 2 blokes who are actually from Canberra.
It's not really any different than the overconfident true believers that are here. It doesn't matter how many times you explain the history or show them evidence that contradicts their worldview, they're simply not willing to accept it.
I'm repeating myself again, but the hardcore code wars types exhibit almost religious behaviour. In the case of the blokes on LU they hold RL's superiority as an article of faith, and anybody who contradicts that is treated like a blasphemous heretic, who, as such, is obviously just a dishonest actor.
They also have an answer for everything that's just plausible enough for somebody who wants to believe to run with it.
Show them that RL has the lowest participation of the four big football codes in the ACT, and Aussie Rules the second highest, and it's all "the AFL uses Auskick to fudge their numbers". Show them that more than half the participants in their numbers are from outside of Canberra and the ACT, and it's all "Queanbeyan, Goulburn, Cooma, etc, are in the Raiders catchment and are Raiders juniors, therefore they count, because reasons".
Show them that roughly half the sample for TV ratings they're banking on are from outside of the ACT, and from places as far afield as Wollongong, Wagga, Albury, and Eden, and it's "Canberra's a RL city, so who cares, the numbers would be similar or the same anyway".
Attendances at AFL games held in Canberra, that never include a local side and are almost always played between two lower drawing teams, growing to the point that they're basically all sell-outs and are competitive with the Raiders numbers, and it's "bolstered by traveling fans from Melbourne and Sydney", or even "mostly traveling fans". I could go on, but I'm sure you get the point.
They're in a bubble, and honestly they're stuck in there by choice and there's no getting them out unless they choose to leave. And don't think it isn't a problem with AFL fans either. They're plenty of bug-eyed blokes who'll enthusiastically preach at you about how the AFL will be the biggest code in Queensland in the next few decades.
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They travel to Canberra for those things because it's the most convenient, not because of some loyalty to Canberra or the ACT. I honestly find it pretty fascinating that you'd suggest otherwise. I'm sure plenty of people from Geelong travel to Melbourne regularly, some daily, doesn't mean they'd give up the Cats to support a Melbourne side.
Ask people from regional NSW (even Queanbeyan) what they think of Canberrans and 90% will spew stereotypes about how Canberrans are all wealthy snobs and lazy public servants, and in a sporting context most very much delight in opportunities to beat said snobby public servants.
I'd know, I've actually played in more than my fair share of matches like that in multiple sports, and have the bruises to prove it. Hell, the old first grade Eden Monaro vs ACT rep games from back in the day are some of the most violent matches of football I've ever witnessed.
It also isn't the case that Canberra teams are particularly popular in regional NSW in any other sport I'm aware of, and I see no reason why that would be different in Aussie Rules.
At the very least all of the Eels, Bulldogs, Panthers, Rabbitohs, and Dragons are more popular in the Riverina than the Raiders, and it wouldn't surprise me if at least a few more of the Sydney clubs were bigger than them there as well.
Even at their absolute height the Brumbies barely made an impact outside of Canberra and Queanbeyan, these days they may as well be invisible.
Women's teams like the Caps and United, well, they are invisible outside of Canberra. Most people don't even know they exist, which is why you consistently get people suggesting that a Canberra based AFL side could/should be called the Capitals.
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As a Queenslander who doesn't care for code wars, I reckon I'd have a week long stiffy if a standalone Queensland Australian football team existed and beat Victoria at the sport that they invented. Now seen multiple Lions and Broncos premierships, seen Queensland win the rugby league origin so many times, even seen the Queensland Bulls beat both NSW and Victoria in the Shield final, but seeing a standalone Queensland AFL origin team compete would be special, but even more so if we could actually beat Victoria. I'm very happy common sense prevailed at that Will Ashcroft was deemed ineligible to play for Victoria, but also scratching my head on why Charlie Cameron is playing for WA.
I don't believe a Qld 3 should be ahead of the queue in front of Canberra though.
So did the old Junction Oval which Fitzroy did play at.
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Big year coming up.
Different sport but Darwin in the box seat to get a test against Bangladesh bypassing Canberra (tbc if the series will be in August or March 27)
Proves Darwin and Northern Australia can sustain massive sporting events.
The fact the season is starting early March also puts paid to the weather argument
Different sport but Darwin in the box seat to get a test against Bangladesh bypassing Canberra (tbc if the series will be in August or March 27)
Proves Darwin and Northern Australia can sustain massive sporting events.
The fact the season is starting early March also puts paid to the weather argument
Good for Darwin, but it's a one-off test. Doesn't really prove much.
And it's an August series, of course it's "bypassing Canberra". It's for the northern winter. Even Mackay is getting a game.
What do you mean by this?
I think he means if cricket can be played in March, AFL can be too.
But they've selected August, which means they're avoiding the earlier months of the AFL season (like March).
If anything, them choosing August just reinforces that Darwin has a large chunk of the year not fit for professional sport.
Cunnington Cartel
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There is no way the NT should be getting the 20th license. AFLNT are throwing plenty of resources behind their bid and getting people like Andy D, Peter Jackson, Bucks and McLeod on the taskforce shows that they are having a serious crack at it.
Everyone would like to see enhanced NT representation in the league, but I’ll be shocked if the AFL selects a standalone club as their vehicle to achieve this. Below are several key factors that will be considered by the taskforce, the AFL, and its clubs when they assess the NT as an option. Many of these factors were work-streams assigned to the Tasmanian Gov for them to tick off after the Carter Review (2021) and most will also be applicable for the 20th team.
In my view, I feel that the final recommendation on the NT will be for a joint venture with a Melbourne-based club and this will heat up in 12 months time when the Suns’ current deal expires (they have already been vocal about wanting to move all home games back to GC). I fear that (as usual) my club will likely be in the crosshairs once again - it almost feels scripted that the Dimwit has come back to get his revenge and finish off the hit job on his old club.
Colin Carter’s review of the Tasmanian licence bid stated that as a JV with a Melbourne-based club, a Tasmanian side would be positioned in the middle of the AFL’s wealth ladder. However, as a standalone club, Tasmania would be in the middle of the bottom third (above the two expansion clubs - around the same level as North or St Kilda). Clearly, a standalone NT club would sit below Tas on the wealth ladder. It would more expensive to run, spread out over a way bigger area, and serve a much smaller community.
Based on the NT’s own business case, a club based there would have a $15m annual funding gap after AFL distributions. Keeping in mind, the figure quoted in the business case is based on a feasibility study that was completed for AFL NT in 2019. Therefore, it’s safe to presume that by 2030ish that funding gap figure will be way higher than $15m.
For a standalone NT club to be viable, they’d need a strategy/ funding commitments to deliver all of these outcomes:
In relation to these factors, a joint venture between the NT and a Victorian club would provide a simple solution to all of them.
The club could retain its Melbourne training base and play 5-6 home games up North when the weather is more favourable. It would be so much cheaper - less ongoing government support, travel, and only minor facility upgrades needed instead of new builds. The team would still be able to perform well in Melbourne and during big finals because they’d be acclimatised to those conditions.
The main negatives would clearly be the negative impact on the JV club and its supporter base, the NT community wouldn’t have as much of a positive impact as they would from a full-time local club, NT draftees would still have to move interstate (although the club connection and regular trips home might help alleviate home sickness), and perhaps the academy pathways would not be as fruitful (although the VFL and AFLW pathways would be significantly better than what an NT-based club could produce).
When point #9 is considered, it becomes even more obvious that Canberra or Perth should get the 20th license. WA3 would be the easiest to set up and arguably the most profitable, while Canberra would be best for the growth/ nationalisation of the sport.
My tip is that the AFL will go for one of those two locations (probably Canberra) and attempt to establish a JV partnership with the NT, because it would result in a far more logical outcome. While a smokey could be that they bring in WA3 and then try to have two JV partnerships between both territories and two Victorian clubs.
Everyone would like to see enhanced NT representation in the league, but I’ll be shocked if the AFL selects a standalone club as their vehicle to achieve this. Below are several key factors that will be considered by the taskforce, the AFL, and its clubs when they assess the NT as an option. Many of these factors were work-streams assigned to the Tasmanian Gov for them to tick off after the Carter Review (2021) and most will also be applicable for the 20th team.
In my view, I feel that the final recommendation on the NT will be for a joint venture with a Melbourne-based club and this will heat up in 12 months time when the Suns’ current deal expires (they have already been vocal about wanting to move all home games back to GC). I fear that (as usual) my club will likely be in the crosshairs once again - it almost feels scripted that the Dimwit has come back to get his revenge and finish off the hit job on his old club.
Colin Carter’s review of the Tasmanian licence bid stated that as a JV with a Melbourne-based club, a Tasmanian side would be positioned in the middle of the AFL’s wealth ladder. However, as a standalone club, Tasmania would be in the middle of the bottom third (above the two expansion clubs - around the same level as North or St Kilda). Clearly, a standalone NT club would sit below Tas on the wealth ladder. It would more expensive to run, spread out over a way bigger area, and serve a much smaller community.
Based on the NT’s own business case, a club based there would have a $15m annual funding gap after AFL distributions. Keeping in mind, the figure quoted in the business case is based on a feasibility study that was completed for AFL NT in 2019. Therefore, it’s safe to presume that by 2030ish that funding gap figure will be way higher than $15m.
For a standalone NT club to be viable, they’d need a strategy/ funding commitments to deliver all of these outcomes:
- New Darwin stadium that has some form of climate control / roof. ($1b+).
- Upgraded Alice Springs stadium to host the first few home games of the season (due to Darwin’s weather). ($100m+).
- State of the art new training and administration base that allows the team to keep training throughout the summer when there are tropical storms, extreme heat and humidity (e.g. roof and climate controlled). ($100m+).
- Speaking of weather, if the men’s team can’t play in Darwin until early-mid April, then how would an AFLW team play there from mid-August until November?
- Ability of non-selected AFL-listed players to compete in a second-tier comp. There isn’t a local second tier comp at standard, so would the seconds also be flying for away games in the VFL/SANFL/WAFL every second week? The travel costs would be insane - more than double the Eagles’ and Dockers’ expenses.
- Ongoing financial support from the government and local business community. Confident they would get this from the Territory government and they also have a strong resource economy. Ongoing financial support from the Federal government is a big question mark though.
- Participation rates and pathways. NT participation is already highest in the nation. A territory-wide academy for one AFL club would definitely improve pathways for locals. AFLNT are already establishing one in Darwin (was announced last month that this is being taken off the Suns).
- Ability to (or ability to develop a plan to) attract and retain AFL players and key staff to the location of the new team. This would arguably be one of the biggest barriers for an NT-based club. Priority access to locals would help fill a few spots, but the vast majority of the list would be relocating interstate.
- Community support, crowds, financial viability and sustainability. Here is the relative size of the local population, economy (GSP/GRP), and future pop projections of the NT and several other locations that they are competing with for a license (ID, 2025):
- NT - 255,069 ($33.96b). 2046 - 285k
- Darwin 152,489 ($21.59b)
- Tasmania - 575,000 ($42.82b). 2046 - 616k
- Greater Hobart - 254,930 ($21b)
- Canberra Region (ACT + CRJO - NSW)
- 800,000+ ($83.19b)
- ACT (excl. Queanbeyan) 485,000 ($57.58b). 2046 - 595k
- Perth - 2,363,562 ($300b)
- Perth Metro N/NE (Joondalup, Wanneroo, and Swan) 590,304 ($32.36b). 2046 - 890k
- South West WA 201,659 ($20b). 279,122 (2046)
In relation to these factors, a joint venture between the NT and a Victorian club would provide a simple solution to all of them.
The club could retain its Melbourne training base and play 5-6 home games up North when the weather is more favourable. It would be so much cheaper - less ongoing government support, travel, and only minor facility upgrades needed instead of new builds. The team would still be able to perform well in Melbourne and during big finals because they’d be acclimatised to those conditions.
The main negatives would clearly be the negative impact on the JV club and its supporter base, the NT community wouldn’t have as much of a positive impact as they would from a full-time local club, NT draftees would still have to move interstate (although the club connection and regular trips home might help alleviate home sickness), and perhaps the academy pathways would not be as fruitful (although the VFL and AFLW pathways would be significantly better than what an NT-based club could produce).
When point #9 is considered, it becomes even more obvious that Canberra or Perth should get the 20th license. WA3 would be the easiest to set up and arguably the most profitable, while Canberra would be best for the growth/ nationalisation of the sport.
My tip is that the AFL will go for one of those two locations (probably Canberra) and attempt to establish a JV partnership with the NT, because it would result in a far more logical outcome. While a smokey could be that they bring in WA3 and then try to have two JV partnerships between both territories and two Victorian clubs.
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Surely to have a stand alone club in the NT would be a huge financial blackhole for the game with the costs incalculable.
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I agree. From both financial and logistical standpoints, it just can’t happen.
The_Reaper
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I can’t take anyone who ever suggests South West WA seriously.
The Territory is vastly more likely
The Territory is vastly more likely
?? How would you feel if North was that JV club ??
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Cunnington Cartel
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Obviously I don’t want it to happen. The club I know and love would no longer exist and it would change the fabric of the club forever. It would be bad for the Melbourne-based supporters who get to see their team play live fewer times throughout the season. The extra travel might also reduce their chances of being successful.
North’s constitution amendment after the GC saga stipulates that any merger or relocation motion requires at least 75% majority support from voting members. Relocation is defined as “an outcome that will result in or require the Club to relocate from its Melbourne base to a location outside the state of Victoria”.
It would be close to impossible for any proposal to get 75% support. However, the wording of the relocation is interesting because it does leave the door ajar for a JV/co-location where the club remains based at Arden St.
I guess it also depends on how much would be expected for a joint venture.
The Carter Report was vague on its definition of a joint venture, but it said "most of the team's home games". I'd take that as 8-10 home games in Tasmania.
A JV in the NT wouldn't need anywhere near that. Three to four games in Darwin, and a game in Alice would be enough for a market that size.
That's already similar to what's been floated when it's grouped in with a northern team.
The Carter Report was vague on its definition of a joint venture, but it said "most of the team's home games". I'd take that as 8-10 home games in Tasmania.
A JV in the NT wouldn't need anywhere near that. Three to four games in Darwin, and a game in Alice would be enough for a market that size.
That's already similar to what's been floated when it's grouped in with a northern team.
A NT team would make the SUNS and GWS look like Collingwood. Low population, low potential, unsuitable weather. Not a serious contender.
If the money was right would you be happy for North to transfer their 2 WA matches to NT ??
Cunnington Cartel
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It seems like some earlier posts went missing due to the update.
A club partnership (JV) with an equal split of games is listed as “option 4”. The same JV arrangement is also their preferred model to use as a precursor for their three highest-rated options (5, 6, 7) which are a relocation, a standalone NT club, and a Northern Aus club.
I heard an interview with AFL Cairns General Manger (Craig Lees) a few months ago and it seems like the chance of a Northern Aus team has diminished.
Craig said that the NT’s bid is very much aimed at having a team based in Darwin. He said that Cairns is keen to get more AFL content and if through the NT’s process they (or the AFL) determine that the viability of the bid would be improved through hosting 2-3 games in Cairns then they would gladly be a partner. However, if that doesn’t eventuate then Cairns will look to expand their emerging partnership with Hawthorn by getting them to play some games there after they leave Launceston.
He also said that Cairns and the NT are exploring the possibility of establishing a Northern footy league to provide a stronger local comp throughout Northern Australia.
The NT business case shows that a relocation option would be achieved in stages, with a JV being stage 2; a full relocation is stage 3. The NT and AFL’s desired outcomes of this bid could be quite different though. All of us will be gobsmacked if the AFL (and it’s clubs) think a standalone team is the best option for the NT.
WA is North’s second biggest supporter base and going there before/after the bye and getting it done in one week is a great way of handling a shit situation. In saying this, if North lose both games against West Coast at Optus this year then there’ll be huge momentum for us not to renew the WA deal moving forward. No one could argue with that either.
Secondary market options were discussed on the North board prior to us leaving Hobart.
The overwhelming favourite was 11 home games in Melbourne. Obviously the club isn’t in a position to do that yet / the AFL is forcing NM (due to our ASD funding) to test a new market for them (Bunbury) and help the WA clubs have one less away game.
The only other two options that had decent support were Albury-Wodonga and Bendigo. Those regions wont get the club the same level of cash, but would 3/4 games in one of those cities be better than 2 games in WA or NT? Absolutely!
If by “what’s been floated” you mean included in the NT’s business case then that’s spot on.
A club partnership (JV) with an equal split of games is listed as “option 4”. The same JV arrangement is also their preferred model to use as a precursor for their three highest-rated options (5, 6, 7) which are a relocation, a standalone NT club, and a Northern Aus club.
I heard an interview with AFL Cairns General Manger (Craig Lees) a few months ago and it seems like the chance of a Northern Aus team has diminished.
Craig said that the NT’s bid is very much aimed at having a team based in Darwin. He said that Cairns is keen to get more AFL content and if through the NT’s process they (or the AFL) determine that the viability of the bid would be improved through hosting 2-3 games in Cairns then they would gladly be a partner. However, if that doesn’t eventuate then Cairns will look to expand their emerging partnership with Hawthorn by getting them to play some games there after they leave Launceston.
He also said that Cairns and the NT are exploring the possibility of establishing a Northern footy league to provide a stronger local comp throughout Northern Australia.
Thats a difficult question because, from a NM perspective, both are far from ideal as a secondary market. They’re the two major cities furthest from Melbourne. One results in us giving up home ground advantage to the opposition teams, while the other is in a region that is actively pursuing a team of their own and has a totally different climate.
The NT business case shows that a relocation option would be achieved in stages, with a JV being stage 2; a full relocation is stage 3. The NT and AFL’s desired outcomes of this bid could be quite different though. All of us will be gobsmacked if the AFL (and it’s clubs) think a standalone team is the best option for the NT.
WA is North’s second biggest supporter base and going there before/after the bye and getting it done in one week is a great way of handling a shit situation. In saying this, if North lose both games against West Coast at Optus this year then there’ll be huge momentum for us not to renew the WA deal moving forward. No one could argue with that either.
Secondary market options were discussed on the North board prior to us leaving Hobart.
The overwhelming favourite was 11 home games in Melbourne. Obviously the club isn’t in a position to do that yet / the AFL is forcing NM (due to our ASD funding) to test a new market for them (Bunbury) and help the WA clubs have one less away game.
The only other two options that had decent support were Albury-Wodonga and Bendigo. Those regions wont get the club the same level of cash, but would 3/4 games in one of those cities be better than 2 games in WA or NT? Absolutely!
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I like how the Suns have embraced the NT, and the Giants have embraced Canberra. I can also understand that in an ideal world, both of these teams play all their home games in the Gold Coast and Western Sydney respectively.
If it makes them financially healthy, which it should do with help from the AFL, North Melbourne should embrace the NT and play 1 home game in Alice Springs and 3 home games in Darwin per year. A simple rebranding to the Northern, or North Kangaroos. Become the Northern Territories forever team, whilst remaining based at Arden Street and still playing at least 12 games per season in Melbourne. North Kangaroos academies in the top end and Alice Springs, and maybe even a North Kangaroos team based in the SANFL or another State League - mainly made up of NT non-listed AFL players. Stream the NTFL played over summer via North Kangaroos media.
A 20th AFL team full time in Canberra with a new stadium and a new Canberra based BBL team. It's hard to see any 3rd team in WA or SA being anything more than a very little brother to the current set up and anything north of the Brisbane line isn't going to work full time.
If it makes them financially healthy, which it should do with help from the AFL, North Melbourne should embrace the NT and play 1 home game in Alice Springs and 3 home games in Darwin per year. A simple rebranding to the Northern, or North Kangaroos. Become the Northern Territories forever team, whilst remaining based at Arden Street and still playing at least 12 games per season in Melbourne. North Kangaroos academies in the top end and Alice Springs, and maybe even a North Kangaroos team based in the SANFL or another State League - mainly made up of NT non-listed AFL players. Stream the NTFL played over summer via North Kangaroos media.
A 20th AFL team full time in Canberra with a new stadium and a new Canberra based BBL team. It's hard to see any 3rd team in WA or SA being anything more than a very little brother to the current set up and anything north of the Brisbane line isn't going to work full time.
