20th AFL Team

[glengowan]

20: Canberra Lakers
21: West Perth Falcons
22: Norwood Redlegs
23: Southport/Queensland Sharks
24: Port Melbourne Borough

Two Divisions of 12, 22 Round Home and Away season, with promotion and relegation.

VIC - 11 Clubs
WA+SA+NSW/ACT+QLD - 3 Clubs
TAS - 1 Club

Priority Drafting from your home state. Players on loan to teams in the other Division.

 

[Run n Spread]

Test match confirmed in August.
Combined with the back to back AFL games in may it is a big year for Darwin sport.
Theoretically that's 7 days of elite sport.
Darwin pull this off there is no reason a consistent run of 7 to 9 home games a year cant be possible.

 

[Run n Spread]

What’s the difference between North hosting Eagles in Perth and Collingwood hosting Geelong at the G?

Bit harder for North fans to get to Perth than Geelong fans to the G.
Having said that ive got no issues with the pies playing away at KP.
Here is what's confusing about the argument.
On one hand a popular reason for the NT bid getting rejected is low crowd numbers.
Yet on the other people say Geelong should be able to host finals and play blockbusters at KP at greatly reduced capacity.
Even the GF should not be at the G but at a stadium with significant reduced capacity has gained traction.
So do crowds matter or not? Im confused.
If crowds don't matter than NT is absolutely the front runner

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Test match confirmed in August.
Combined with the back to back AFL games in may it is a big year for Darwin sport.
Theoretically that's 7 days of elite sport.
Darwin pull this off there is no reason a consistent run of 7 to 9 home games a year cant be possible.

Maybe wait and see how many people actually turn up at the Bangladesh Test and if it lasts more than 2 days (note, it's not going to be 10,000 at Day 2) before trumpeting.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

What’s the difference between North hosting Eagles in Perth and Collingwood hosting Geelong at the G?

Isn't it Eagles fans who are the ones that are always claiming how much additional travel time matters? Yet now you're pretending it causes no difference here?

 

[Seedsfan]

Test match confirmed in August.
Combined with the back to back AFL games in may it is a big year for Darwin sport.
Theoretically that's 7 days of elite sport.
Darwin pull this off there is no reason a consistent run of 7 to 9 home games a year cant be possible.

Yes there is, they are playing Bangladesh there as the ICC mandates we host them as part of the WTC. We have no interest in playing them in our summer.

 

[jatz14]

Bit harder for North fans to get to Perth than Geelong fans to the G.
Having said that ive got no issues with the pies playing away at KP.
Here is what's confusing about the argument.
On one hand a popular reason for the NT bid getting rejected is low crowd numbers.
Yet on the other people say Geelong should be able to host finals and play blockbusters at KP at greatly reduced capacity.
Even the GF should not be at the G but at a stadium with significant reduced capacity has gained traction.
So do crowds matter or not? Im confused.
If crowds don't matter than NT is absolutely the front runner

Crowds matter in so far as they are at an unviable level.

You understand that you can worry about a 5000 crowd not being enough, this doesn't mean you are then obligated to worry about a 40000 crowd, because you could have got more at the G?

And the NT crowd is every second game, the GF is once a year.

One is a fortnightly loss, and one is a yearly reduced, but still massive, profit.

 

[____]

Maybe wait and see how many people actually turn up at the Bangladesh Test and if it lasts more than 2 days (note, it's not going to be 10,000 at Day 2) before trumpeting.

I actually reckon it would get a good crowd. There's a chunk of people that would travel to Darwin for it.

 

[Coolangatta]

I actually reckon it would get a good crowd. There's a chunk of people that would travel to Darwin for it.

Yeah, that’s the key, travel. I think a Darwin 7 Cairns 4 team with good branding… Northern Bushrangers, something that taps into shared rural identity, would work… if the players weren’t absolutely cooked from all the travel.

But they would be, of course. It isn’t something you can realistically contemplate for another 50 years minimum.

 

[RedV3x]

I actually reckon it would get a good crowd. There's a chunk of people that would travel to Darwin for it.

I'd describe it as a "nibble" rather than a "chunk" and it'd be what I call "excuse travel".
"We could go to Darwin.......and watch a game of cricket".

 

[Perry Pie]

20 teams and that it. AFL is full for next 30 years.

Canberra for team 20.

Other changes after that (if any) should come from merger or relocation or club failure.

Spreading the game around the country is a good thing - letting that grow and evolve is the way to go.

 

[Cmarsh]

Which is more likely to be first... a Canberra A-League team or a Canberra AFL team?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Which is more likely to be first... a Canberra A-League team or a Canberra AFL team?

A 20th AFL team isn't likely until the early 2030s, so if you asked me a year or two ago, I would've said the A-League men's team for sure. Now I'm not so sure.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

I do wonder sometimes if the people commenting here have been to a Gabba match in the post-Covid era, while also having been to games at Adelaide, Perth etc.

I've been to multiple matches in every city in Australia (yes really) and the Gabba is truly the worst fan experience of any AFL stadium. Ballarat is better.

People are acting like Brisbane's bandwagon support is not impressive when in my eyes it truly is, because it occurs despite the stadium. Yes Brisbane have been successful but it's also a product of constant generational southern state migration, that also had an uptick around COVID (many people have never returned).

I have also, and I agree that the Gabba is terrible. However, I’d say it’s the 2nd worst fan experience. Try attending Ninja stadium when it’s a sell out, it’s the epitome of shit.

 

[qlderlions]

Just some more information published on the strength of the Lions in Brisbane now (link below) in response to people that say that the economic drivers for another team in Brisbane is not there and won't be there until late 2030s at least

If you take out the difference in league funding (-$10M)

• Lions/Broncos would be equivalent on Total Revenue
• Average attendance constrained by the smaller Gabba Stadium (36,000) vs. Suncorp (52,000) and better corporate facilities at Suncorp which flows into the difference in Matchday - 31M Broncos vs 18M Lions.
• Lions compensate for this by having higher off-field revenue, matchday will close once the lions move to the new stadium. Broncos have similar off-field funding sources, just smaller in scale.
• Lions sponsorship is now slightly higher than Broncos, which surprised me.

If the Lions were a NRL side: Based on these metrics, lions would be the second largest team in the NRL on attendance, highest membership and third on revenue. Not sure on social media, maybe 5th or 6th in the NRL based on what Wookie published last year.

Both Brisbane teams were premiers in 2025.

One City and Two Premiers: AFL Lions v NRL Broncos - SportsIndustryAU

#AFL Lions (premiers) v #NRL Broncos (premiers)

footyindustry.com

One City and Two Premiers: AFL Lions v NRL Broncos - SportsIndustryAU

#AFL Lions (premiers) v #NRL Broncos (premiers)

footyindustry.com

 

[Canberra Pear]

Just some more information published on the strength of the Lions in Brisbane now (link below) in response to people that say that the economic drivers for another team in Brisbane is not there and won't be there until late 2030s at least

If you take out the difference in league funding (-$10M)

• Lions/Broncos would be equivalent on Total Revenue
• Average attendance constrained by the smaller Gabba Stadium (36,000) vs. Suncorp (52,000) and better corporate facilities at Suncorp which flows into the difference in Matchday - 31M Broncos vs 18M Lions.
• Lions compensate for this by having higher off-field revenue, matchday will close once the lions move to the new stadium. Broncos have similar off-field funding sources, just smaller in scale.
• Lions sponsorship is now slightly higher than Broncos, which surprised me.

If the Lions were a NRL side: Based on these metrics, lions would be the second largest team in the NRL on attendance, highest membership and third on revenue. Not sure on social media, maybe 5th or 6th in the NRL based on what Wookie published last year.

Both Brisbane teams were premiers in 2025.

One City and Two Premiers: AFL Lions v NRL Broncos - SportsIndustryAU

#AFL Lions (premiers) v #NRL Broncos (premiers)

footyindustry.com

View attachment 2540441

One City and Two Premiers: AFL Lions v NRL Broncos - SportsIndustryAU

#AFL Lions (premiers) v #NRL Broncos (premiers)

footyindustry.com

Nobody’s denying that the Lions are doing well.

It still doesn’t negate the fact that it’s bad timing with the stadium.

If the Lions were continuing to play at the Gabba, I’d say Bris2 would be a smoky for the 20th team. As the current timeline stands, they’re not.

 

[theprospector]

Nobody’s denying that the Lions are doing well.

It still doesn’t negate the fact that it’s bad timing with the stadium.

If the Lions were continuing to play at the Gabba, I’d say Bris2 would be a smoky for the 20th team. As the current timeline stands, they’re not.

Are we really talking about another team in Brisbane? Surely the BrisvGC is sufficient.

 

[qlderlions]

Nobody’s denying that the Lions are doing well.

It still doesn’t negate the fact that it’s bad timing with the stadium.

If the Lions were continuing to play at the Gabba, I’d say Bris2 would be a smoky for the 20th team. As the current timeline stands, they’re not.

You keep on saying timing is a negative. I think it is perfect timing to make use of brand new, high profile stadium that people will be very eager to attend in a very rapidly growing city/region. Having a world class stadium is what we have been starved of in this market for >25 years (since the last Suncorp expansion) - as per people's comments above about the Gabba (which I agree with).

From a commercial perspective: Excess capacity in a fast growing market is a great problem to have (huge revenue upside with no associated capital cost to build the capacity). You don't have this potential in small market team.

Also you are forgetting the QLD context:

• Dolphins NRL Suncorp, 24 games at 27 787 average in 52,000 seat stadium (53% Utilisation) - No KAYO stadium included
• Broncos NRL Suncorp 2010 - 2018 33,000 in 52,000 seat stadium (63% Utilisation)
• Broncos NRL Suncorp 2023-2025 33,793 (64% Utilisation), 39,872 (76% Utilisation), 41,185 (79% Utilisation)
• Titans NRL Robina 2025 16,000 in a 27,000 seat stadium (60% Utilisation)

Match Day Revenue is a much smaller % of total revenue for all QLD clubs, so the excess capacity is not as much of an economic driver as other AFL clubs. Broncos are the biggest club in QLD but have run at capacity factors of 63% to 79% and still made very good profits year in year out. Dolphins even more so.

If Lions don't add anything to their crowd average at the Gabba (very unlikely) then they will be 47% Utilisation of Victoria Park. Very similar to the Dolphins right now.

At 40,000 average (not much growth) then you are looking at 63% Utilisation (on par with the broncos for most of past 15 years). Most likely outcome is a Lions 45k average by mid 2030s (72% Utilisation), similar to freo now 45k in 60k stadium.

So therefore, if this excess capacity isn't an issue for the lions, the AFL just need to focus on establishing the new team support: Even if a Brisbane 2 20th team is 20k average in a 63k stadium to start (first four years), that is on par with the average crowds (and revenue) with a Manuka based or Hobart based team. However the excess capacity gives you much more attendance upside potential than you have for a Canberra or Hobart venue capped by Stadium Capacity.

Setting a capacity benchmark for Brisbane 2 team entry doesn't make sense when smaller crowds in big venues isn't as much of an issue for the AFL in Melbourne:

• Demons 37k /100k Stadium (37% Utilisation)
• St Kilda 29k - 35k / 53k Stadium (55%to 66% Utilisation)
• North 27k / 53k Stadium (50% Utilisation)
• WB 30k / 53k Stadium (56% Utilisation)

The same logic above for Brisbane 2 would apply to Perth 3, this is where I am coming from that I think the 20th team is between Perth 3 and Brisbane 2 due to the stadium capacity is available to be used and would provide the State Governments of both states with more marque event utilisation of high profile, high-cost assets. Both governments have come out and said they are on the hunt for more events.

 

[Canberra Pear]

You keep on saying timing is a negative. I think it is perfect timing to make use of brand new, high profile stadium that people will be very eager to attend in a very rapidly growing city/region. Having a world class stadium is what we have been starved of in this market for >25 years (since the last Suncorp expansion) - as per people's comments above about the Gabba (which I agree with).

From a commercial perspective: Excess capacity in a fast growing market is a great problem to have (huge revenue upside with no associated capital cost to build the capacity). You don't have this potential in small market team.

Also you are forgetting the QLD context:

• Dolphins NRL Suncorp, 24 games at 27 787 average in 52,000 seat stadium (53% Utilisation) - No KAYO stadium included
• Broncos NRL Suncorp 2010 - 2018 33,000 in 52,000 seat stadium (63% Utilisation)
• Broncos NRL Suncorp 2023-2025 33,793 (64% Utilisation), 39,872 (76% Utilisation), 41,185 (79% Utilisation)
• Titans NRL Robina 2025 16,000 in a 27,000 seat stadium (60% Utilisation)

Match Day Revenue is a much smaller % of total revenue for all QLD clubs, so the excess capacity is not as much of an economic driver as other AFL clubs. Broncos are the biggest club in QLD but have run at capacity factors of 63% to 79% and still made very good profits year in year out. Dolphins even more so.

If Lions don't add anything to their crowd average at the Gabba (very unlikely) then they will be 47% Utilisation of Victoria Park. Very similar to the Dolphins right now.

At 40,000 average (not much growth) then you are looking at 63% Utilisation (on par with the broncos for most of past 15 years). Most likely outcome is a Lions 45k average by mid 2030s (72% Utilisation), similar to freo now 45k in 60k stadium.

But what's the point? The larger of your estimates has the Lions averaging 45k. That's almost 200k empty seats in a season.

There's a real chance here to turn the Lions into a behemoth of a club. The focus should be on filling those. You should be giving Brisbane one giant club that can compete with Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon. Not splitting the city between an upper medium club and a minnow.

So therefore, if this excess capacity isn't an issue for the lions, the AFL just need to focus on establishing the new team support:

You're also doing a massive disservice to any second Brisbane team entering at that time. You want them entering when AFL support in the city is bursting at the seams and they can't get into the stadium. Any demand will get mopped up by the Lions.

Even if a Brisbane 2 20th team is 20k average in a 63k stadium to start (first four years), that is on par with the average crowds (and revenue) with a Manuka based or Hobart based team. However the excess capacity gives you much more attendance upside potential than you have for a Canberra or Hobart venue capped by Stadium Capacity.

I think you're a little optimistic with your average there, but capacity also has its downside.

20k in a 63k looks terrible, would create a terrible atmosphere, and most importantly, would be a revenue loss. 20k averages in Hobart and Canberra are sold out money-makers.

The same logic above for Brisbane 2 would apply to Perth 3, this is where I am coming from that I think the 20th team is between Perth 3 and Brisbane 2 due to the stadium capacity is available to be used and would provide the State Governments of both states with more marque event utilisation of high profile, high-cost assets. Both governments have come out and said they are on the hunt for more events.

If high capacity was such a big factor, Sydney would be getting a third team to fill Accor.

I honestly don't think Brisbane 2 is even in the race for the 20th team. Outside of bigfooty, it's barely even in the conversation.

It's a two-horse race between Canberra and Perth, with the NT halfway back down the track.

 

[terrybull]

I

20: Canberra Lakers
21: West Perth Falcons
22: Norwood Redlegs
23: Southport/Queensland Sharks
24: Port Melbourne Borough

Two Divisions of 12, 22 Round Home and Away season, with promotion and relegation.

VIC - 11 Clubs
WA+SA+NSW/ACT+QLD - 3 Clubs
TAS - 1 Club

Priority Drafting from your home state. Players on loan to teams in the other Division.

If they bring in any Victorian team it should be return of Fitzroy.

Rather East Perth Royals over West Perth, we have to many teams with West and birds in their name. And they don’t to change their jumper or colours either…

 

[The_Reaper]

By any metric Perth 3 makes more sense then Brisbane 2

 

[Purple Suit]

By any metric Perth 3 makes more sense then Brisbane 2

Yep,
A couple of flags and they think they can do everything and it will last forever. Just check the history books on what happened after the last dynasty crumbled. They were back at 16k attendance before long.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

You keep on saying timing is a negative. I think it is perfect timing to make use of brand new, high profile stadium that people will be very eager to attend in a very rapidly growing city/region. Having a world class stadium is what we have been starved of in this market for >25 years (since the last Suncorp expansion) - as per people's comments above about the Gabba (which I agree with).

From a commercial perspective: Excess capacity in a fast growing market is a great problem to have (huge revenue upside with no associated capital cost to build the capacity). You don't have this potential in small market team.

Also you are forgetting the QLD context:

• Dolphins NRL Suncorp, 24 games at 27 787 average in 52,000 seat stadium (53% Utilisation) - No KAYO stadium included
• Broncos NRL Suncorp 2010 - 2018 33,000 in 52,000 seat stadium (63% Utilisation)
• Broncos NRL Suncorp 2023-2025 33,793 (64% Utilisation), 39,872 (76% Utilisation), 41,185 (79% Utilisation)
• Titans NRL Robina 2025 16,000 in a 27,000 seat stadium (60% Utilisation)

Match Day Revenue is a much smaller % of total revenue for all QLD clubs, so the excess capacity is not as much of an economic driver as other AFL clubs. Broncos are the biggest club in QLD but have run at capacity factors of 63% to 79% and still made very good profits year in year out. Dolphins even more so.

If Lions don't add anything to their crowd average at the Gabba (very unlikely) then they will be 47% Utilisation of Victoria Park. Very similar to the Dolphins right now.

At 40,000 average (not much growth) then you are looking at 63% Utilisation (on par with the broncos for most of past 15 years). Most likely outcome is a Lions 45k average by mid 2030s (72% Utilisation), similar to freo now 45k in 60k stadium.

So therefore, if this excess capacity isn't an issue for the lions, the AFL just need to focus on establishing the new team support: Even if a Brisbane 2 20th team is 20k average in a 63k stadium to start (first four years), that is on par with the average crowds (and revenue) with a Manuka based or Hobart based team. However the excess capacity gives you much more attendance upside potential than you have for a Canberra or Hobart venue capped by Stadium Capacity.

Setting a capacity benchmark for Brisbane 2 team entry doesn't make sense when smaller crowds in big venues isn't as much of an issue for the AFL in Melbourne:

• Demons 37k /100k Stadium (37% Utilisation)
• St Kilda 29k - 35k / 53k Stadium (55%to 66% Utilisation)
• North 27k / 53k Stadium (50% Utilisation)
• WB 30k / 53k Stadium (56% Utilisation)

The same logic above for Brisbane 2 would apply to Perth 3, this is where I am coming from that I think the 20th team is between Perth 3 and Brisbane 2 due to the stadium capacity is available to be used and would provide the State Governments of both states with more marque event utilisation of high profile, high-cost assets. Both governments have come out and said they are on the hunt for more events.

I agree with plenty of your ideas here, although I’d question your capacity benchmark comparisons with the four smallest Victorian clubs. Roos, Dogs, Saints and Dees have the benefit of sharing a state with 9 other clubs, so their home attendances are inflated by the fans of other Victorian clubs (e.g. St Kilda’s game v Collingwood tomorrow is a perfect example of that).

The hardest thing for Brisbane 2 would be playing in a 60k stadium with only two home games v Qld teams. This is where a secondary venue somewhere like the Sunshine Coast would be necessary, so they could shift 2-3 home games v lower-drawing opponents to a smaller capacity ground and make them profitable.

The QLD government won’t have the appetite to develop another ground pre-Olympics. Although with it being a cheaper project, hopefully it’s something that could be looked at within the next decade.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Yep,
A couple of flags and they think they can do everything and it will last forever. Just check the history books on what happened after the last dynasty crumbled. They were back at 16k attendance before long.

A lot has changed with QLD footy in the past 20 years that may contribute to the Lions having a longer period of success this time round, and also being able to absorb a drop-off in on-field performance:

1. The COVID hub in 2020 saw plenty of games being held in QLD including the GF, which ended up being a huge promotional tool for the sport. Things have gone from strength-to-strength since then.

2. Participation levels in Qld have increased from 52,773 in 2019 (which was the Lions’ first finals appearance in 10 years), to 91,312 in 2025. The AFL has previously claimed that people who participate in the sport are 7x more likely to follow the sport at the elite level.

3. The Lions are continuing to access elite talent at the top of the draft through F/S and academy selections. Ashcroft x 2, Fletcher, Annable, Marshall etc. If they stay near the top of the ladder for longer, then one would assume that it will result in more interest in the code, sustained higher attendances, and increased youth participation to positively impact the strength of the club long-term.

4 The period of success for the Lions has coincided with success for their women’s team and also when the Gold Coast Suns arrived as a consistent AFL performer. Once again, a huge boon for footy in the state, which will undoubtedly lead to more public awareness and interest in the sport.

5. Greater Brisbane has grown by almost 1m people in the past 20 years and that’s before we contemplate population growth in the other parts of SE Qld. Compared with Melbourne and Sydney, a higher proportion of overall growth has been interstate migration, with many moving here from the Southern states (including me).

This is a factor in the growing AFL fanbase here, but it doesn’t paint the full picture. The state’s footy culture is also growing rapidly, as plenty of friends I have, who were born locally or internationally, have started following the sport passionately over the past 5 years and now have kids playing the sport, attending Lions games etc. I’m clearly biased and living in a footy bubble, but I moved here when the Lions and Suns were rock bottom and the difference between then and now is stark.

I agree that WA will be ready for a new club before QLD. IMO, #20 will be out of WA and Canberra (with one unlucky to miss out). It would be wise for the AFL to wait until the Lions start playing at Vic Park and then evaluate if it’s needed and feasible to bring in QLD3.

If participation and interest keeps growing in Qld then in time that will hopefully alleviate some of the talent pool arguments against expansion, and the AFL can have a 22 team league with Canberra, WA3, QLD3 and GWS playing all of its home games in Sydney.

This outcome might be achievable sooner than many of us think, because I suspect that Tassie and #20 will be way more profitable than the Suns and Giants were when they entered the league.

 

[rdrdrdrd]

A lot has changed with QLD footy in the past 20 years that may contribute to the Lions having a longer period of success this time round, and also being able to absorb a drop-off in on-field performance:

1. The COVID hub in 2020 saw plenty of games being held in QLD including the GF, which ended up being a huge promotional tool for the sport. Things have gone from strength-to-strength since then.

2. Participation levels in Qld have increased from 52,773 in 2019 (which was the Lions’ first finals appearance in 10 years), to 91,312 in 2025. The AFL has previously claimed that people who participate in the sport are 7x more likely to follow the sport at the elite level.

3. The Lions are continuing to access elite talent at the top of the draft through F/S and academy selections. Ashcroft x 2, Fletcher, Annable, Marshall etc. If they stay near the top of the ladder for longer, then one would assume that it will result in more interest in the code, sustained higher attendances, and increased youth participation to positively impact the strength of the club long-term.

4 The period of success for the Lions has coincided with success for their women’s team and also when the Gold Coast Suns arrived as a consistent AFL performer. Once again, a huge boon for footy in the state, which will undoubtedly lead to more public awareness and interest in the sport.

5. Greater Brisbane has grown by almost 1m people in the past 20 years and that’s before we contemplate population growth in the other parts of SE Qld. Compared with Melbourne and Sydney, a higher proportion of overall growth has been interstate migration, with many moving here from the Southern states (including me).

This is a factor in the growing AFL fanbase here, but it doesn’t paint the full picture. The state’s footy culture is also growing rapidly, as plenty of friends I have, who were born locally or internationally, have started following the sport passionately over the past 5 years and now have kids playing the sport, attending Lions games etc. I’m clearly biased and living in a footy bubble, but I moved here when the Lions and Suns were rock bottom and the difference between then and now is stark.

I agree that WA will be ready for a new club before QLD. IMO, #20 will be out of WA and Canberra (with one unlucky to miss out). It would be wise for the AFL to wait until the Lions start playing at Vic Park and then evaluate if it’s needed and feasible to bring in QLD3.

If participation and interest keeps growing in Qld then in time that will hopefully alleviate some of the talent pool arguments against expansion, and the AFL can have a 22 team league with Canberra, WA3, QLD3 and GWS playing all of its home games in Sydney.

This outcome might be achievable sooner than many of us think, because I suspect that Tassie and #20 will be way more profitable than the Suns and Giants were when they entered the league.

If the AFL grows to 20 teams, then I suggest a 3rd SANFL team being the merger of 2 powerful SANFL clubs in Norwood and Sturt - instant 10000 members but this would probably ruin the SANFL beyond repair. Hence my preferred AFL option is to reduce the AFL to 18 teams with the merger of Melbourne and North Melbourne to become the Demon Roos.