Past #26: Tarryn Thomas - Roo until end '24

[Snake_Baker]

Buckenara has TT at 7.

7. TARRYN THOMAS

Midfielder, 189cm, 73kg, North Launceston

Buckenara says: An exciting playmaker, Thomas looks to be a very good prospect. Watch him closely through the midfield – he’s a smart decision-maker and a very clever player. He’s available to North Melbourne as a Next Generation Academy player.

Plays like: Shaun Burgoyne (Hawthorn)

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...t/news-story/3e632480d76f92ab844973d18586c028

I'd prefer to read The Ziebull's opinions.

 

[giantroo]

So basically if TT gets bid on at pick 13 or below we have enough points to cover him with our 1st 2 picks.

This is subject to change due to compo picks.

We also get the 20% discount.

 

[Snake_Baker]

One minute we're the "no destination club" and the next minute every mutt with a press card and a keyboard is nostril deep in our trading and drafting.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

We also get the 20% discount.

I'll have to recalculate, I only took 10% off.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

Assuming we do trade our first, our next 2 picks will cover anything up to a pick 10 bid (10 or higher bid)

A pick earlier than that and we'll need to use our third pick and drop 10+ spaces in the draft from that pick

 

[DarkPhoenix]

We would need a pick to come at pick 22 or later for us to only have to use our 2nd pick (677 points)

This would give us TT + 1 Draft point (Pick 73 is 9 points, 74 is 0. So no change)

 

[utility]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn Gubby has his mitts all over this, having a school plant produce bogus attendance and detention records etc. Much as my accountant once did for my vehicle log book when my actual logbook showed 60% business use. He suggested we go 90% to maximise the return, subsequently whipping up figures to support the desired outcome in an hour.

This reads like an Arthur Cloke post.

 

[billnats]

Wood will stay, Waite going has made that a sure thing. Preuss is gone. We won't be offering our first for Polec, other clubs may need to be involved.

We get Polec. We keep our first. Port gets upset and bids on TT the pick before us to call our bluff.

What do we do?

Considering that the draft has a Super Seven and Port has pick 9... not entirely fantasy

 

[Friday Night Lights]

We get Polec. We keep our first. Port gets upset and bids on TT the pick before us to call our bluff.

What do we do?

Considering that the draft has a Super Seven and Port has pick 9... not entirely fantasy

Good luck to them. There’s a heap of SA talent in the draft they’d be passing up on to do that.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

We get Polec. We keep our first. Port gets upset and bids on TT the pick before us to call our bluff.

What do we do?

Considering that the draft has a Super Seven and Port has pick 9... not entirely fantasy

We'd take best available.

If it's Tarryn then we don't lose.

 

[Orange Peanut]

We just have to go back to the basics of recruiting.

- Create Top 100 of draftees, review at least once per week;
- Add in potential incoming players that would require trades and allocate a pick number to the value you have for them;
- Add in potentially outgoing players that would leave and attract a draft pick (eg Pruess)
- When evaluating all talent, refer to list and assess their value according to your master list.

If Thomas is not in the top 12 (our pick will be 12), that pick no longer becomes a must move pick, its value rises internally;
If that is the case, we should look at scenarios to maintain the Pick 12 when dealing with Port.
Trading in 2nd round picks and involving someone like Sydney (who doesn't care about its first pick as long as it has points for Blakey) should achieve the Polec trade - Port receives Sydney Rd 1 pick and sweetener while we send equivalent points value to Sydney in other picks.

You forgot the final step
- leave the whiteboard with your entire rankings for the first 2 rounds sitting in the middle of a meeting room during the public Open Day.

 

[Rooboy 96]

We get Polec. We keep our first. Port gets upset and bids on TT the pick before us to call our bluff.

What do we do?

Considering that the draft has a Super Seven and Port has pick 9... not entirely fantasy

so let's say this happens and we decide to take TT (even with all his problems )

pick 9 is worth 1469 pts

20% discount has TT cost to us 1175 pts

our next pick is 10 and worth 1395

where do the 220 points go?

does it move our pick 28 (677 pts) to pick 21 (878 pts)? or do we get pick 54 (220 pts) a pick that we may not even use?

 

[Benj7]

So basically if TT gets bid on at pick 13 or below we have enough points to cover him with our 1st 2 picks.

This is subject to change due to compo picks.

Yep plus we get 20% bonus or something so we are in a good position

 

[DarkPhoenix]

so let's say this happens and we decide to take TT (even with all his problems )

pick 9 is worth 1469 pts

20% discount has TT cost to us 1175 pts

our next pick is 10 and worth 1395

where do the 220 points go?

does it move our pick 28 (677 pts) to pick 21 (878 pts)? or do we get pick 54 (220 pts) a pick that we may not even use?

The next pick must be used, and any left over points from using that pick get moved back in the draft to where a pick totalling that points total would be.

 

[Benj7]

so let's say this happens and we decide to take TT (even with all his problems )

pick 9 is worth 1469 pts

20% discount has TT cost to us 1175 pts

our next pick is 10 and worth 1395

where do the 220 points go?

does it move our pick 28 (677 pts) to pick 21 (878 pts)? or do we get pick 54 (220 pts) a pick that we may not even use?

We will recive pick 54 in exchange that we can use as points for Scott hopefully

 

[Rooboy 96]

The next pick must be used, and any left over points from using that pick get moved back in the draft to where a pick totalling that points total would be.

thanks DP, how does that impact on clubs only being allowed as many pick/points that you have list spots available? does it mean we may have to burn the 101 points that pick 64 is worth? seems like the rules are forcing you to break the rules if you get to use the points from pick 64.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

thanks DP, how does that impact on clubs only being allowed as many pick/points that you have list spots available? does it mean we may have to burn the 101 points that pick 64 is worth? seems like the rules are forcing you to break the rules if you get to use the points from pick 64.

You only ever gain one pick from left over points, no matter what.

If you don't have list spots you forfeit your LAST pick in the draft, not the newly created one.

So in theory it could look something like (made up numbers, dont bother checking point values they wont match):

North have picks 10, 28, 39, 56, 89, 101

North pick a player at 10.
At 11 Essendon select Tarryn Thomas
North Match using picks 28+39 and move up in the order to 11.
Essendon then select at 12.
Leftover points from matching make a new pick for North (lets say 54).

So we would then have picks 54, 56, 89 and 101 to take.

But say we only had 3 list spaces.

We then lose pick 101 because we couldn't select a player.

It's hard to make more picks than you have list spots for though.

It's more likely to happen in the case of 2 close picks, I.e club picks at 9, we match at 10 and have left over points from that. As youre using one pick to get a player + a leftover points pick.

 

[Rooboy 96]

You only ever gain one pick from left over points, no matter what.

If you don't have list spots you forfeit your LAST pick in the draft, not the newly created one.

So in theory it could look something like (made up numbers, dont bother checking point values they wont match):

North have picks 10, 28, 39, 56, 89, 101

North pick a player at 10.
At 11 Essendon select Tarryn Thomas
North Match using picks 28+39 and move up in the order to 11.
Essendon then select at 12.
Leftover points from matching make a new pick for North (lets say 54).

So we would then have picks 54, 56, 89 and 101 to take.

But say we only had 3 list spaces.

We then lose pick 101 because we couldn't select a player.

It's hard to make more picks than you have list spots for though.

It's more likely to happen in the case of 2 close picks, I.e club picks at 9, we match at 10 and have left over points from that. As youre using one pick to get a player + a leftover points pick.

in the scenario you used we would never have had 101 anyway as we would not have had enough free spots on the list, but the scenario where we only have to use 1 pick to match points and then get another pick back, we end up with an extra pick

in your scenario 28 and 39 is replaced with TT and 54, two picks = a player and pick everything is even

in my scenario pick 10 is replaced with TT and 54, we gain a pick that we may not be able to use, so the discount in reality could be artificial.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

in the scenario you used we would never have had 101 anyway as we would not have had enough free spots on the list, but the scenario where we only have to use 1 pick to match points and then get another pick back, we end up with an extra pick

in your scenario 28 and 39 is replaced with TT and 54, two picks = a player and pick everything is even

in my scenario pick 10 is replaced with TT and 54, we gain a pick that we may not be able to use, so the discount in reality could be artificial.

Yes, thats why I clarified it's almost impossible to create more spots than you can use and that it generally happens when you use 1 pick and get a player+left over.

Don't look too deeply into specifics it's just a general example to explain how it all works. Like I said, the numbers won't add up

 

[DarkPhoenix]

in the scenario you used we would never have had 101 anyway as we would not have had enough free spots on the list, but the scenario where we only have to use 1 pick to match points and then get another pick back, we end up with an extra pick

in your scenario 28 and 39 is replaced with TT and 54, two picks = a player and pick everything is even

in my scenario pick 10 is replaced with TT and 54, we gain a pick that we may not be able to use, so the discount in reality could be artificial.

Also this is worth a read for more clarification:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...the-draft-bidding-system-20160822-gqyilj.html

Prevents hoarding picks for academy.

 

[Rooboy 96]

Yes, thats why I clarified it's almost impossible to create more spots than you can use and that it generally happens when you use 1 pick and get a player+left over.

Don't look too deeply into specifics it's just a general example to explain how it all works. Like I said, the numbers won't add up

it probably all works out in the wash, I just think the discount could in some very rare cases not be as beneficial a one would expect unless the points were added to your next pick in these rare situations where only one pick is required to match the bid.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

It's intentionally like that. So academy clubs like sydney don't have guaranteed ridiculous draft hauls

 

[utility]

If we pick Lmac with a cocaine addiction then TT is a shoe in.

 

[Rooboy 96]

Also this is worth a read for more clarification:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...the-draft-bidding-system-20160822-gqyilj.html

Prevents hoarding picks for academy.

that was an interesting read, thanks.

I found "The AFL has ruled that the number of selections a club holds going into the national draft must match the number of vacant spots on their primary list." particularly interesting, with live trading this year. I wonder if the league is ready for a live trade were Adelaide give up 14, 19 and 37 to GoldCoast for the Lynch pick 3 and Gold Coast score an extra 350 points. Could see some new rules introduced on Draft Day.

 

[ferball]

Where’s Roger ‘the dodger’ Rogerson when you want someone silenced!!!!

Well last I heard he was at the centre of an elaborate escape plot hatched by a young Tasmanian footballer with an eye on a more profitable career in crime.

Forgot the hashtag

#thekidisarisk