RussellEbertHandball
Flick pass expert
I have been meaning to write this thread for about 4 or 5 years but never got around to it.
To me there are 4 distinct parts to a footy season that year in year out footy fans and commentators, even the ones who have played the game at AFL level, seem to forget and project forward the good and the bad from one part to another. It basically is the same for any level of footy that goes from March/April to September. It also is why your tipping can go screwy if your forget what happens in the different parts
1. The first 8 to 10 weeks of the season, depending on how early in March the season starts. The weather is good, the grounds are dry and hard and the footy is fast and furious. The flashy outside skillful players are usually at their best. It allows for the sides who finished out of the 8 to maybe get a head start as they have had a full preseason, unlike those teams who have made the PF or GF. It also allows for first year players to make a bit of an impact because they are relatively fresh and have not been battered and bruised yet and they are unkowns to opposition coaches and analysts. No better example of this than Jakey Neade in his and the club's first 5 games of 2013 season. The kid was electric and despite his small size he was able to use his speed and skills to bamboozle his opponents. Nathan Krakouer in 2007 was another great example of this.
Another factor in this period is the draw. A good and easier draw allows teams to build momentum as the W's are racked up and the players feel confident and good about themselves. Its why you have April premiers. Collingwood under Tony Shaw and Mike Malthouse's first couple of years used to be like this. I dont think they won a game in June for 5 years, but lost bugger all in April in that period. But most of the younger sides cant maintain it. The older sides, especially the grand final and prelim final sides tend to only do ok rather than great during this period, due to a combo of lesser preseason, the draw for the top 4 sides usually is tough in the early weeks.
Another factor during this period is the preseason. If a side has lots of guys having operations at the end of the previous season that means long modified preseason training, and/or lots of serious injuries during the preseason then you see these sides despite how good they re struggle thru this period. Fremantle last year went 4-4 in the first 8 games mainly because of this effect and Ross Lyon said they were only an average side - a bit of BS but there form was only average. They then went 12-2. Injuries in the preseason and during the first few weeks will also have an impact on a sides form in this period.
2. The next 8 weeks. The rain comes, the cold weather comes, and the heavy grounds come into play. This is when the experienced players and the bigger bodied sides start to make ground and start to win over the younger, smaller sized, fleet of foot sides. If you missed out playing the good teams in the first 8 weeks, this is when you cop them.
Its when the older blokes start making a real impact. The young blokes especially first year players are starting to feel the pinch, be it workload or "general soreness" and their younger slight bodies struggle to cope with what is needed at AFL level.Some of the young kids are exposed and have to face being put under more pressure as the opposition coaches are now aware of how good they are. Once again Jakey Neade in 2013 fell into this category. This is when the Hawthorns and Geelongs of the AFL start to make their march, flex their muscles and move up the ladder if they have had a slow start to the year, or consolidate their top 4 spots if they have had a good start. Its when Port in the SANFL used to become threatening.
3. August and sometimes the first week of September. This is when the big boys start to really hit their straps and put the pedal to the medal. Its also when upsets happen as some of the sides who have had a poor year or have been hit by injuries and get key players back,start to play well and start setting up for next year, eg Hawks 2006 won their last 4 and propelled them to a big 2007. The final round though causes some upsets for finalists and eventual premiers as sometimes they put the queue in the rack a bit and a bit of self preservation for the next week's finals games, especially if they cant go up the ladder and get a home final - ie win or lose they stay in the same position. Since 1997 the following premiers have lost the final round,
1997 Adel v Ess 4pts away, 2002 Bris v PA 6 pts away, Col v Hawks 3 pts at MCG - Col had stitched up 1st place and Hawks had to win to have a chance of a home final v Freo, but Freo also won. Syd v Gee 34 pts away - lost the double chance.
Port had an unbelievable record in August between 2000-07
2000 W - the Olympics so season finished one month early
2001 WWWW (W 1st weekend of Sept)
2002 WWWWW
2003 WWWWW
2004 WWWW
2005 WLWW (Loss was by 7 pts to crows)
2006 LWLW (Losses 19pts North 2 pts Colingwood)
2007 LWWWW (Loss was by 8 pts to crows)
So that's 28-4 with 3 losses in single digits
Kenny's record is
2013 WLWLL (Last loss was to Carlton by a point when had 7th spot sown up before game)
2014 LLWWL ( first Loss to Collingwood by 6pts and last one to Freo by 8 pts)
4. September. September is a WNBG as the Coodabeens used to sing - a Whole New Ball Game.
Not much use having all those wins in August if you cant replicate that in September, especially the first week when you have a home final.
Some players just live for September and make their reputations then. We all know the names. One of the best is Clark Keating, he was a classic Mr September. Not in 2001 - he played 20 games that season, but in 2002-04 period he would play a handful of games usually in April, miss the cold months and come back all fit and healthy for September and just dominate in the rucks and give the fab 4, fab 5, and fab 6 one year, first use of the ball and away went the Lions.
To me there are 4 distinct parts to a footy season that year in year out footy fans and commentators, even the ones who have played the game at AFL level, seem to forget and project forward the good and the bad from one part to another. It basically is the same for any level of footy that goes from March/April to September. It also is why your tipping can go screwy if your forget what happens in the different parts
1. The first 8 to 10 weeks of the season, depending on how early in March the season starts. The weather is good, the grounds are dry and hard and the footy is fast and furious. The flashy outside skillful players are usually at their best. It allows for the sides who finished out of the 8 to maybe get a head start as they have had a full preseason, unlike those teams who have made the PF or GF. It also allows for first year players to make a bit of an impact because they are relatively fresh and have not been battered and bruised yet and they are unkowns to opposition coaches and analysts. No better example of this than Jakey Neade in his and the club's first 5 games of 2013 season. The kid was electric and despite his small size he was able to use his speed and skills to bamboozle his opponents. Nathan Krakouer in 2007 was another great example of this.
Another factor in this period is the draw. A good and easier draw allows teams to build momentum as the W's are racked up and the players feel confident and good about themselves. Its why you have April premiers. Collingwood under Tony Shaw and Mike Malthouse's first couple of years used to be like this. I dont think they won a game in June for 5 years, but lost bugger all in April in that period. But most of the younger sides cant maintain it. The older sides, especially the grand final and prelim final sides tend to only do ok rather than great during this period, due to a combo of lesser preseason, the draw for the top 4 sides usually is tough in the early weeks.
Another factor during this period is the preseason. If a side has lots of guys having operations at the end of the previous season that means long modified preseason training, and/or lots of serious injuries during the preseason then you see these sides despite how good they re struggle thru this period. Fremantle last year went 4-4 in the first 8 games mainly because of this effect and Ross Lyon said they were only an average side - a bit of BS but there form was only average. They then went 12-2. Injuries in the preseason and during the first few weeks will also have an impact on a sides form in this period.
2. The next 8 weeks. The rain comes, the cold weather comes, and the heavy grounds come into play. This is when the experienced players and the bigger bodied sides start to make ground and start to win over the younger, smaller sized, fleet of foot sides. If you missed out playing the good teams in the first 8 weeks, this is when you cop them.
Its when the older blokes start making a real impact. The young blokes especially first year players are starting to feel the pinch, be it workload or "general soreness" and their younger slight bodies struggle to cope with what is needed at AFL level.Some of the young kids are exposed and have to face being put under more pressure as the opposition coaches are now aware of how good they are. Once again Jakey Neade in 2013 fell into this category. This is when the Hawthorns and Geelongs of the AFL start to make their march, flex their muscles and move up the ladder if they have had a slow start to the year, or consolidate their top 4 spots if they have had a good start. Its when Port in the SANFL used to become threatening.
3. August and sometimes the first week of September. This is when the big boys start to really hit their straps and put the pedal to the medal. Its also when upsets happen as some of the sides who have had a poor year or have been hit by injuries and get key players back,start to play well and start setting up for next year, eg Hawks 2006 won their last 4 and propelled them to a big 2007. The final round though causes some upsets for finalists and eventual premiers as sometimes they put the queue in the rack a bit and a bit of self preservation for the next week's finals games, especially if they cant go up the ladder and get a home final - ie win or lose they stay in the same position. Since 1997 the following premiers have lost the final round,
1997 Adel v Ess 4pts away, 2002 Bris v PA 6 pts away, Col v Hawks 3 pts at MCG - Col had stitched up 1st place and Hawks had to win to have a chance of a home final v Freo, but Freo also won. Syd v Gee 34 pts away - lost the double chance.
Port had an unbelievable record in August between 2000-07
2000 W - the Olympics so season finished one month early
2001 WWWW (W 1st weekend of Sept)
2002 WWWWW
2003 WWWWW
2004 WWWW
2005 WLWW (Loss was by 7 pts to crows)
2006 LWLW (Losses 19pts North 2 pts Colingwood)
2007 LWWWW (Loss was by 8 pts to crows)
So that's 28-4 with 3 losses in single digits
Kenny's record is
2013 WLWLL (Last loss was to Carlton by a point when had 7th spot sown up before game)
2014 LLWWL ( first Loss to Collingwood by 6pts and last one to Freo by 8 pts)
4. September. September is a WNBG as the Coodabeens used to sing - a Whole New Ball Game.
Not much use having all those wins in August if you cant replicate that in September, especially the first week when you have a home final.
Some players just live for September and make their reputations then. We all know the names. One of the best is Clark Keating, he was a classic Mr September. Not in 2001 - he played 20 games that season, but in 2002-04 period he would play a handful of games usually in April, miss the cold months and come back all fit and healthy for September and just dominate in the rucks and give the fab 4, fab 5, and fab 6 one year, first use of the ball and away went the Lions.
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