Society/Culture A basic income for citizens.

[VineyIsLORD]

Here's the link I mentioned a few pages back about what jobs are likely to be automated:

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/21/408234543/will-your-job-be-done-by-a-machine

It's obviously not super-scientific, but to suggest that automation won't make a massive difference to a large majority of people is head in the sand kind of stuff. I don't agree with some of the predictions (particularly the low chance of automation for teachers - education is due for a MASSIVE overhaul in the near future (a very complex topic worthy of it's own discussion) - and journalism - some of the automated news aggregators are getting VERY clever), but the overall trend is that the number of jobs taken over by Artificial Intelligence will increase exponentially as the AI technology itself increases exponentially.

So what happens for those people that have been made redundant through no fault* of their own? This is why the talk about a UBI is becoming more and more accepted. Sure, it's not popular enough to have won the referendum in Switzerland, but it's enough into the mainstream now that they actually held the referendum!

* By "no fault", I mean that they could be incredibly hard-working and driven, but might have made a "fault" in deciding what to study etc etc.

Important to note the main reason for the UBI being voted down in switzerland isnt because people disagree with it, rather that because Switzerland isnt in the EU they are rightfully concerned about it being a magnet for migration

Finland doesnt have that same level of concern partially because of where it is located.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

It's analytical and numbers are not the be all and end all.

The point is no matter how good her analysis is or her math skills are, there will come a time when an algorithm can do it better and cheaper.

And no matter how many hours of unpaid overtime she does, she wont be able to match the algorithm in cost/benefit terms.

This isnt a knock on people working hard or being career focused. Its just the reality that the vast majority of industries are staring down the barrel of.

 

[The Edukator]

The point is no matter how good her analysis is or her math skills are, there will come a time when an algorithm can do it better and cheaper.

And no matter how many hours of unpaid overtime she does, she wont be able to match the algorithm in cost/benefit terms.

This isnt a knock on people working hard or being career focused. Its just the reality that the vast majority of industries are staring down the barrel of.

no, you are wrong. there are too many immeasurable facets that go into this line of work that an algorithm not suffice for.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

no, you are wrong. there are too many immeasurable facets that go into this line of work that an algorithm not suffice for.

Considering you dont do the job yourself you probably arent in a position to speak this conclusively.

But just to be clear: you are stating her work is so complicated that a machine cant do it ever. Lets take it on face value. That really just disproves your earlier point about hard work.

What is this job btw?

 

[The Edukator]

Considering you dont do the job yourself you probably arent in a position to speak this conclusively.

But just to be clear: you are stating her work is so complicated that a machine cant do it ever. Lets take it on face value. That really just disproves your earlier point about hard work.

What is this job btw?

it is property related and yes I feel I can comment because its something we discuss in depth together and a field I have the tertiary studies for.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

it is property related and yes I feel I can comment because its something we discuss in depth together and a field I have the tertiary studies for.

I am hard pressed to think of any job in the property industry that requires a kevel of analysis that an algorithm wont someday be able to perform. But there are a few jobs in that industry that require a human to signoff on, so the legal framework we have probably will protect those jobs for a while at least. But a lot of the frontline functions wont exist.

Consider that even math whiz actuaries will have their jobs become redundant in the near future.

 

[The Edukator]

I am hard pressed to think of any job in the property industry that requires a kevel of analysis that an algorithm wont someday be able to perform. But there are a few jobs in that industry that require a human to signoff on, so the legal framework we have probably will protect those jobs for a while at least. But a lot of the frontline functions wont exist.

Consider that even math whiz actuaries will have their jobs become redundant in the near future.

there are too many nuances that a computer cant pickup on and at the very least who is going to do the data entry for these algorithms to work form?

 

[VineyIsLORD]

there are too many nuances that a computer cant pickup on and at the very least who is going to do the data entry for these algorithms to work form?

It depends on what nuances you are talking about.

But hypothetically even if her role involves physically going out to proerties and assessing their value, it could be done by drones, the data uploaded and the evaluation spat out by an algorithm.

 

[kickazz]

no, you are wrong. there are too many immeasurable facets that go into this line of work that an algorithm not suffice for.

Machine Learning will completely transcend algorithm based automation though. How disruptively is still a bit of a mystery though.

 

[The Edukator]

It depends on what nuances you are talking about.

But hypothetically even if her role involves physically going out to proerties and assessing their value, it could be done by drones, the data uploaded and the evaluation spat out by an algorithm.

do you even have a job? you respond to everyone immediately in about 10 different threads.

it's no wonder you are anti capitalist. its like you don't want to work and just want handouts.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

do you even have a job? you respond to everyone immediately in about 10 different threads.

it's no wonder you are anti capitalist. its like you don't want to work and just want handouts.

Easy there tiger.

Pretty severe reaction to zero antagonism.

A skeptic might think perhaps the reason you dont want to discuss your missus' job is because a key part of it is banging her boss or something.

But machines will one day take that function too

 

[The Edukator]

Easy there tiger.

Pretty severe reaction to zero antagonism.

A skeptic might think perhaps the reason you dont want to discuss your missus' job is because a key part of it is banging her boss or something.

But machines will one day take that function too

Severe? hardly. I am just making an observation.

I can also confirm with as much confidence as humanly possibly she is only banging me. But thats only on the days she's not working 12 hours.

Did i mention shes also doing her masters? thats more hard work and effort that she's going to be rewarded for down the track.

$$$$$

edit: you didnt answer my question. you don't have a job do you? probably just an arts degree

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Severe? hardly. I am just making an observation.

I can also confirm with as much confidence as humanly possibly she is only banging me. But thats only on the days she's not working 12 hours.

Did i mention shes also doing her masters? thats more hard work and effort that she's going to be rewarded for down the track.

$$$$$

Whats her master's name?

JK.

Im on holidays. Hence the high post rate.

Hard work is a good thing i definitely dont disagree with you on that. But the thread is about some coming issues that society is going to have to grapple with one way or another.

 

[The Edukator]

I don't believe you. you are, as others have theorised, probably an arts student (or ex) with no direction.

giggled at the masters joke.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

I don't believe you. you are, as others have theorised, probably an arts student (or ex) with no direction.

giggled at the masters joke.

Well I dont care even the slightest bit if you believe me. Just makes me wonder why you would bother asking as it would seem illogical if you werent going to believe the answer.

Not relevant to the thread either.

 

[coerced]

no, you are wrong. there are too many immeasurable facets that go into this line of work that an algorithm not suffice for.

Unless you are 'creating' something unique then no. There are already plenty of NLP algorithms that can analyse and synthesise semantic meaning, and they are only getting better.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Unless you are 'creating' something unique then no. There are already plenty of NLP algorithms that can analyse and synthesise semantic meaning, and they are only getting better.

Thanks for your posts in this thread. Its giving me some good stuff to google and learn about

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

One doesn't have to work for 20 years to know that hard work reaps rewards. The best paid of my peers are the ones that work hardest on themselves and their job whilst the ones who still go out and party are left lagging. This goes for all the older people I've sought out for advice and education as well.

if you work hard on yourself you'll bring more value to the hour worked and get paid for that value beyond just the hour worked itself.

Well, of course if the option is between working hard and being a party person, then the former will have a better career. A lot of people stop partying in their late 20s. The point is whether working hard at your job will protect you from influences out of your hands: industry pressures, regulation changes, management in your company being poor, workers beneath you being poor, external elements, both personal or global, etc. And of course if you take a big risk and try to run a business there is even more risk.

Or you can have the fun situation of being a hard worker who doesn't suck up to management in the right way and you will never get ahead. e.g. If you question why something is happening or if you advocate for something to happen that your boss doesn't want. Or someone might throw you under the bus and it's their word against your's. Often it's useful in any of those situations if you have things in common with the upper management (went to the same schools, like the same sports, are family or friends or whatever), but otherwise your progress may not be nurtured.

If your working life is straight-forward that's great, but it's not the same for everyone.

 

[Scallop Industry Thug]

giggled at the masters joke.

I chortled.

Im glad your GF is working hard and getting rewards, but she is the exception to the rule in capitalism. Poor buggers are working manual jobs for 18 hours a day and get 1% of what I do.

 

[Run n Spread]

Well, of course if the option is between working hard and being a party person, then the former will have a better career. A lot of people stop partying in their late 20s. The point is whether working hard at your job will protect you from influences out of your hands: industry pressures, regulation changes, management in your company being poor, workers beneath you being poor, external elements, both personal or global, etc. And of course if you take a big risk and try to run a business there is even more risk.

Or you can have the fun situation of being a hard worker who doesn't suck up to management in the right way and you will never get ahead. e.g. If you question why something is happening or if you advocate for something to happen that your boss doesn't want. Or someone might throw you under the bus and it's their word against your's. Often it's useful in any of those situations if you have things in common with the upper management (went to the same schools, like the same sports, are family or friends or whatever), but otherwise your progress may not be nurtured.

If your working life is straight-forward that's great, but it's not the same for everyone.

Mutually exclusive. Unless you are going to such an extent that you are missing work. Who would know the difference? In any case or the networks, secret hand shake deals and mates are built after work. So depending on your industry might actually reap rewards.

Working hard and being at your job is important. But it may not be the most important thing.

 

[Run n Spread]

What this essentially is is just increasing the dole/disability pensions by a shit load. We already have unemployment in Australia. The argument now is it's too low to sustain a person and have them continue to participate vs the Kombaya view we should give everyone an equal share. All this does is negotiate the difference. (Similar to the joke).

So we are arguing what the minimum income is/what it should entail with the added complexity of what it should be if unemployment sky rockets and there are not enough jobs around so a significant minority won't ever work.

 

[Sinjin Smith]

Amazon's an interesting one - at my work we made about 10 people redundant recently by going with AWS for a number of our processes and databases. That equates to about 5% of our staff, with likely more coming in the future. These aren't shit kicker jobs either - these are jobs that required degrees and paid six figure incomes.

We held out for years because of the commercial sensitivity of our data and systems, but the services offered by Amazon were too good to refuse. I'd love to say the guys who got sacked will be fine in the job market, but I don't think they will.

It will.


Happening in Australia all ready - what do people think the create your own burger thing at McDonalds is about?

If people think services such as Uber and AirBnB are game changers wait until AWS really gains a foothold and starts receiving compliance approval from independent regulators.....which actually has already begun. Quite simply organisations will drastically reduce their physical footprint, offshoot enterprises that are hardly 12 months old are making a killing on just offering tailored AWS security and management services (most originating in Israel), the whole mode of IT operations has just changed massively.

We have actually hired more than 150 developers because of this offering but your right, the traditional IT physical skill set is going. DevOps for everyday applications is now going through a quantum shift which is going to have huge ramifications for the IT job market, it could get messy.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

If people think services such as Uber and AirBnB are game changers wait until AWS really gains a foothold and starts receiving compliance approval from independent regulators.....which actually has already begun. Quite simply organisations will drastically reduce their physical footprint, offshoot enterprises that are hardly 12 months old are making a killing on just offering tailored AWS security and management services (most originating in Israel), the whole mode of IT operations has just changed massively.

We have actually hired more than 150 developers because of this offering but your right, the traditional IT physical skill set is going. DevOps for everyday applications is now going through a quantum shift which is going to have huge ramifications for the IT job market, it could get messy.

Can you explain AWS to a layman like myself?

My level of expertise amounts to a few years experience coding in SQL. About a decade ago.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Mutually exclusive. Unless you are going to such an extent that you are missing work. Who would know the difference? In any case or the networks, secret hand shake deals and mates are built after work. So depending on your industry might actually reap rewards.

Working hard and being at your job is important. But it may not be the most important thing.

Yep, the way The Edukator had phrased it was to suggest it was effecting their career negatively. I aint against partying in the slightest.

And, no, this proposal isn't necessarily about upping welfare. For me it's about giving everyone a basic income. When it becomes instead about minimising the amount of categories of welfare and simplifying payments it feels to me like a different conversation.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

And, no, this proposal isn't necessarily about upping welfare. For me it's about giving everyone a basic income. When it becomes instead about minimising the amount of categories of welfare and simplifying payments it feels to me like a different conversation.

In a way it is both. Its actually the end of welfare and the socialisation of the economy to an extent. But there are so many hurdles to be passed and conversations to be had that it isn't likely to be realistic before 2030, and probably later than that.

It could be absolutely brilliant, and its definitely preferable to the alternative.