WallyStringhaus
Club Legend
- Aug 27, 2015
- 1,150
- 5,280
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Thread starter
- #26
1) Where does Boyd fit in to this discussion?
I'm of the firm belief that players don't really peak until around the age of 25. Once they have done 6-7 pre-seasons and played over 120 games they really start to come into their own as the best footballers that they can be. For this reason I am reticent to write off Boyd completely...however, the signs aren't looking great. He is four seasons in with us and never played more than 15 games or kicked more than 16 goals (2015). We have all seen his potential but after listening to his podcast with Bob Murphy it is clear that football plays a secondary (or maybe even less) role in his life right now. If I was a betting man my money wouldn't be on him to become the colossus we all thought he was going to be.
2) You mention KPIs, what about tackling/pressure acts, specifically in our forward 50 (as a measure of our oft-quoted loss of hunger and intensity)? Do the stats indicate that the makeup of our forward line should be predicated on the ability to harass as being the most important trait, or is this no more important than accuracy, leading patterns etc?
If we look at how Richmond have changed their game you can see that it is a balance of both tackling/pressure/intercept and the ability to mark and convert the ball Inside 50.
Tackles Inside 50:
2015 - Dogs - 13.1 per game (ranked 1st), Tigers - 8.2 (ranked 17th)
2016 - Dogs - 13.3 (5th), Tigers - 8.2 (18th)
2017 - Dogs - 11.7 (10th), Tigers - 14.3 (1st)
2018 - Dogs - 11.9 (6th), Tigers - 12.1 (5th)
In 2015 we had 10 players (min. 5 games) average at least one inside 50 tackle per game. This dropped to 6 in 2016/2017 and stands at 3 this year. It's a big reason why I have Fergus in my starting lineup, although it's a very small sample size he has averaged 2.2 tackles inside 50 in his 4 games thus far (which leads the entire comp.)
For those still wondering why we gave Jake the arse, look no further...
2015 - 1.27 Tackles Inside 50
2016 - 1.09 Tackles Inside 50
2017 - 0.50 Tackles Inside 50
Intercept Possession:
2016 - Dogs - 67.3 (7th), Tigers - 66 (14th)
2017 - Dogs - 68.5 (12th), Tigers - 77.4 (1st)
2018 - Dogs - 71.7 (10th), Tigers - 83! (1st)
Yes a lot of this has to do with the quality of their back line but those tackling stats mentioned above create turnover and Intercept possession. Caddy, Rioli and Higgins all have at least 1.8 intercept possessions per game.
Marks Inside 50:
2016 - Dogs - 11.3 (14th), Tigers - 12.6 (5th)
2017 - Dogs - 12.1 (10th), Tigers - 14 (2nd)
2018 - Dogs - 11.1 (9th), Tigers - 13.4 (2nd)
Look at how our Top 5 Marks Inside 50 has changed with the loss of key personnel;
2015 - Stringer (38), Dickson (28), Crameri (23), Red (23), Boyd (20)
2016 - Dickson (29), Stringer (29), Red (27), Bont (22), Picken (20)
2017 - Redpath (27), Picken (24), Stringer (23), Bont (23), Hunter (15)
2018 - Gowers (29), Schache (19), Hunter (17), Dunkley (16), Bont (14)
Three mids and two first year (in our system) players mark the ball the most inside our F50. Further to that Dunks, Hunter and Gowers are all below average kicks at goal. The balance is all out of whack! Greene has played 4 games and is ranked 7th in our team for Marks Inside 50!!!
3) How sure are you that the breakdown isn't happening further upfield? If we were to add a Shiel or Kelly (ideally resulting in better midfield spread and sharper F50 entries), would this 'fix' the problem more simply than to rejig the entire forward line?
Of course Kelly in particular would make a difference but I think our mids are fine. I mentioned in the wildly popular Hunter thread that I have a metric that measures how many of a players Inside 50's convert into a Goal Assist. It's not perfect as players can miss simple shots (they can also kick impossible goals too...) and Goal Assists can come from balls already inside 50, etc... but over a large sample size it paints a pretty clear picture as to which mids consistently hit players in goal scoring positions;
As a team our percentage of Inside 50's that convert into Goal Assists are as follows;
2015 - 15.87%
2016 - 15.25%
2017 - 15.71% (Tigers - 16.62%)
2018 - 12.94% (Tigers - 16.40%)
Players;
Bont - 2015 (14.71%), 2016 (17.86%), 2017 (19%), 2018 (13.10%)
Macrae - 2015 (17.05%), 2016 (14.71%), 2017 (14.71%), 2018 (16.88%)
Hunter - 2015 (26.32%), 2016 (16.49%), 2017 (9.38%), 2018 (5.56%)
JJ - 2015 (8.33%), 2016 (16.42%), 2017 (17.19%), 2018 (12.68%)
McLean - 2017 (13.04%), 2018 (14.10%)
Dahl - 2015 (23.53%), 2016 (9.64%), 2017 (13.85%), 2018 (11.63%)
Liber - 2015 (N/A), 2016 (21.92%), 2017 (9.09%), 2018 (N/A)
The biggest drop offs have come from Hunter, Dahl and Liber with all the other guys proving pretty consistent. Dahl's 2015 numbers were due to the fact he played mainly forward (led our team for GA's and kicked 17 himself) and we clearly miss Libba's beautiful ball use.
For me I reckon that Gowers, Schache and Greene look our most 'natural' young forwards so they are a lock. Dahl is our best chance to cover the void left by Clay unless Rhylee comes on like a freight train (definite chance). Dickson, Red and Picken will depend on their health with Bont the wildcard. Dale and Lipinski need to take the chances that come their way with both hands. Boyd and English to fight it out for the 2nd ruck/forward.