Autopsy A deep dive into the abyss (aka our forward line)

[WallyStringhaus]

1) Where does Boyd fit in to this discussion?

I'm of the firm belief that players don't really peak until around the age of 25. Once they have done 6-7 pre-seasons and played over 120 games they really start to come into their own as the best footballers that they can be. For this reason I am reticent to write off Boyd completely...however, the signs aren't looking great. He is four seasons in with us and never played more than 15 games or kicked more than 16 goals (2015). We have all seen his potential but after listening to his podcast with Bob Murphy it is clear that football plays a secondary (or maybe even less) role in his life right now. If I was a betting man my money wouldn't be on him to become the colossus we all thought he was going to be.

2) You mention KPIs, what about tackling/pressure acts, specifically in our forward 50 (as a measure of our oft-quoted loss of hunger and intensity)? Do the stats indicate that the makeup of our forward line should be predicated on the ability to harass as being the most important trait, or is this no more important than accuracy, leading patterns etc?

If we look at how Richmond have changed their game you can see that it is a balance of both tackling/pressure/intercept and the ability to mark and convert the ball Inside 50.

Tackles Inside 50:
2015 - Dogs - 13.1 per game (ranked 1st), Tigers - 8.2 (ranked 17th)
2016 - Dogs - 13.3 (5th), Tigers - 8.2 (18th)
2017 - Dogs - 11.7 (10th), Tigers - 14.3 (1st)
2018 - Dogs - 11.9 (6th), Tigers - 12.1 (5th)

In 2015 we had 10 players (min. 5 games) average at least one inside 50 tackle per game. This dropped to 6 in 2016/2017 and stands at 3 this year. It's a big reason why I have Fergus in my starting lineup, although it's a very small sample size he has averaged 2.2 tackles inside 50 in his 4 games thus far (which leads the entire comp.)

For those still wondering why we gave Jake the arse, look no further...
2015 - 1.27 Tackles Inside 50
2016 - 1.09 Tackles Inside 50
2017 - 0.50 Tackles Inside 50

Intercept Possession:
2016 - Dogs - 67.3 (7th), Tigers - 66 (14th)
2017 - Dogs - 68.5 (12th), Tigers - 77.4 (1st)
2018 - Dogs - 71.7 (10th), Tigers - 83! (1st)

Yes a lot of this has to do with the quality of their back line but those tackling stats mentioned above create turnover and Intercept possession. Caddy, Rioli and Higgins all have at least 1.8 intercept possessions per game.

Marks Inside 50:
2016 - Dogs - 11.3 (14th), Tigers - 12.6 (5th)
2017 - Dogs - 12.1 (10th), Tigers - 14 (2nd)
2018 - Dogs - 11.1 (9th), Tigers - 13.4 (2nd)

Look at how our Top 5 Marks Inside 50 has changed with the loss of key personnel;
2015 - Stringer (38), Dickson (28), Crameri (23), Red (23), Boyd (20)
2016 - Dickson (29), Stringer (29), Red (27), Bont (22), Picken (20)
2017 - Redpath (27), Picken (24), Stringer (23), Bont (23), Hunter (15)
2018 - Gowers (29), Schache (19), Hunter (17), Dunkley (16), Bont (14)

Three mids and two first year (in our system) players mark the ball the most inside our F50. Further to that Dunks, Hunter and Gowers are all below average kicks at goal. The balance is all out of whack! Greene has played 4 games and is ranked 7th in our team for Marks Inside 50!!!

3) How sure are you that the breakdown isn't happening further upfield? If we were to add a Shiel or Kelly (ideally resulting in better midfield spread and sharper F50 entries), would this 'fix' the problem more simply than to rejig the entire forward line?

Of course Kelly in particular would make a difference but I think our mids are fine. I mentioned in the wildly popular Hunter thread that I have a metric that measures how many of a players Inside 50's convert into a Goal Assist. It's not perfect as players can miss simple shots (they can also kick impossible goals too...) and Goal Assists can come from balls already inside 50, etc... but over a large sample size it paints a pretty clear picture as to which mids consistently hit players in goal scoring positions;

As a team our percentage of Inside 50's that convert into Goal Assists are as follows;
2015 - 15.87%
2016 - 15.25%
2017 - 15.71% (Tigers - 16.62%)
2018 - 12.94% (Tigers - 16.40%)

Players;

Bont - 2015 (14.71%), 2016 (17.86%), 2017 (19%), 2018 (13.10%)
Macrae - 2015 (17.05%), 2016 (14.71%), 2017 (14.71%), 2018 (16.88%)
Hunter - 2015 (26.32%), 2016 (16.49%), 2017 (9.38%), 2018 (5.56%)
JJ - 2015 (8.33%), 2016 (16.42%), 2017 (17.19%), 2018 (12.68%)
McLean - 2017 (13.04%), 2018 (14.10%)
Dahl - 2015 (23.53%), 2016 (9.64%), 2017 (13.85%), 2018 (11.63%)
Liber - 2015 (N/A), 2016 (21.92%), 2017 (9.09%), 2018 (N/A)

The biggest drop offs have come from Hunter, Dahl and Liber with all the other guys proving pretty consistent. Dahl's 2015 numbers were due to the fact he played mainly forward (led our team for GA's and kicked 17 himself) and we clearly miss Libba's beautiful ball use.

For me I reckon that Gowers, Schache and Greene look our most 'natural' young forwards so they are a lock. Dahl is our best chance to cover the void left by Clay unless Rhylee comes on like a freight train (definite chance). Dickson, Red and Picken will depend on their health with Bont the wildcard. Dale and Lipinski need to take the chances that come their way with both hands. Boyd and English to fight it out for the 2nd ruck/forward.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

I notice there is only a small drop in the i50s (about 5%) compared to 2016 and we're taking more i50 marks than in 2015. So I'd hazard a guess - as Spectre suggested - that our drop in manic forward pressure which was a hallmark of 2016 has been a factor (and I think the eye test supports it). Do you have stats on that?

Missing easy shots hasn't helped either. That has dropped steeply and after nearly every game we have complained that if we could simply kick straight we'd be winning more matches

See reply to Spectre for statistics on F50 tackles.

A pleasing aspect of our second half of the year has been better conversion.

After Round 9 we had kicked 89.118 @43%.

In the ensuing 12 weeks we have kicked 121.102 @54.26%.

 

[Spectre]

Awesome analysis, thanks Wally!

Completely agree about Boyd - too soon to trash him, but he definitely seems to be missing that single minded drive that say his namesake of the Matthew variety had - the ruthlessness that turns average footballers into supermen and the lack thereof that turns talented ones into also-rans. I suppose my question was more about structural fit - can we identify the optimum configuration (no of talls/meds/smalls), and does he fit in there or solely ruck? Your last paragraph answered that, where he contests that position with English. The question of 'optimum configuration' is probably also a very hazy one, based on individual and collective performance and probably different for each team (unless you have another statistical tour de force up your sleeve to definitively state the best one?!).

For the forward KPI question, I think your stats paint a very interesting picture. Firstly, it shows that rather than having 'lost our hunger', our raw tackling, while not as good as '16, is still respectable and is actually tracking back upwards. Where we seem to fall down is getting the ball back from the opposition (intercepts) and marking/converting from entries. The former metric could be down to young bodies being pushed aside (where the tackling and pressure, while present, isn't sufficient to regain possession) or a skill issue (the tackling IS sufficient, but the subsequent skills to regain possession aren't). I'm not clever enough to know how you would unpick that one. The lack of marking and converting, however, is probably more of a skill/experience issue rather than a physical preparedness one - I guess a look at distance covered and average speed of movement in the F50, combined with a measure of dropped marks from opposition pressure would go some ways to answering that. All my rambling aside, I suppose that the way to look at these things is to figure out what traits we need to add to the forward line and recruit/train to fit those; to that end, guys like Fergus need to add 'qualitative sheen' to their game and start improving their skills and converting better, to go along with existing skills like marking and the more workman like traits of racking up tackles. It also might indicate that only skilled forwards need apply, and why a lot of effort will likely be invested in Schache's development/recruiting guys that might at first glance appear more silk and less grunt.

My only disagreement with you would be on the midfield question. I'm not sure how you can be certain that the midfield delivery is fine when we've dropped so badly this year as a team in terms of delivering to scoring positions. Dahl's numbers are pretty similar to his '16 year (plus he's injured), yes we've missed Libba and yes Hunter has fallen dramatically (is this to do with playing a different role? Will have to read your other thread!). My point is, there's no guarantee that any of those lads get back to producing serviceable F50 entries, leading to the refrain of 'even Carey couldn't kick a score with our squad of ball butchers!'. Seems to me this is the most obvious place to start the reconstruction efforts.

Tl:dr for me the following are the take homes from your analysis:
- Our very young forward line needs time to develop. In saying that, it seems to have reasonable defensive effort already (tackle numbers) but not enough skill (and strength?) to effectively reclaim the ball. Also, we're consistently being outmarked (not just a forward line worry!). Therefore, whatever forward type we target, be it Max King or Sam Lloyd, they must have skill and nous (even in preference to sheer grunt).
- We need, need, NEED work put into our goal kicking.
- The tailspin that is delivery from the midfield needs to be arrested. Bont has to spend as much time there as possible, pray that Libba returns in reasonable nick, and seriously look into a godfather offer for Kelly/Shiel (or any other approaches that could improve this aspect of our gameplay - that includes shifting Hunter to a different role). Might be more critical than any wholesale forward line personnel changes.

Specifically for the forward line that you selected, I would agree with your locks. However, at the moment Dahl looks on the outer, Dickson and Red are probably done due to injury, Picken is one concussion from being done, Dale hopefully can recover from his foot or be a flash in the pan and Rhylee is a total unknown. I think at the moment I'd go with Schache, Greene, Gowers, Lipinski, Wallis (if he stays), Boyd, and a lot of prayer. Thanks again for the discussion, really appreciate it and look forward to seeing it further fleshed out!

 

[dogwatch]

Thanks for the hard yakka on the stats, Wally. Good stuff.

Some things that stood out for me:

• Richmond going from 18th in tackles i50 in 2016 (avge 8.2 when they finished 13th) to 1st in 2017 (14.3 premiers). This is too small a sample to be conclusive but it is still a very tantalising stat.
• Stringer's dramatic decline from being AA in 2015 to being shown the door in 2017: Tackles i50 - 1.27/1.09/0.50, Marks i50 - 38/29/23. I'd be interested to know whether he has managed to turn those stats around in his new environment. I'd expect he has (slightly).
• The importance and attention placed on turnovers/intercepts. From 2016 to 2018 the AFL average obviously went up a lot. We were 7th in intercept possessions in 2016 with 67.3. In 2018 we lifted that more than 6% to 71.7 but we dropped to 10th in the league. Do you have stats on goals scored from turnovers?
• There appears to be only a weak positive correlation between marks i50 and season success. Surprising.

As you probably know I'm bullish about Fergus Greene's prospects. You mentioned his pressure acts and his M50s. One thing that annoys me is that he had one game where he kicked 1.4 from about 6 M50s and he has now been labelled by many as a lousy set shot at goal. (It's a very BF thing to pigeonhole players on the basis of just a handful of games, unfortunately.) My understanding was that apart from that one game he has been a pretty accurate set shot. VFL watchers might be able to comment more authoritatively on that. For the record, he has kicked 4.6 in his 4 games of senior footy and that includes the 1.4 against Norf.

 

[Spectre]

Thanks for the hard yakka on the stats, Wally. Good stuff.

Some things that stood out for me:

• Richmond going from 18th in tackles i50 in 2016 (avge 8.2 when they finished 13th) to 1st in 2017 (14.3 premiers). This is too small a sample to be conclusive but it is still a very tantalising stat.
• Stringer's dramatic decline from being AA in 2015 to being shown the door in 2017: Tackles i50 - 1.27/1.09/0.50, Marks i50 - 38/29/23. I'd be interested to know whether he has managed to turn those stats around in his new environment. I'd expet he has (slightly).
• The importance and attention placed on turnovers/intercepts. From 2016 to 2018 the AFL average obviously went up a lot. We were 7th in intercept possessions in 2016 with 67.3. In 2018 we lifted that more than 6% to 71.7 but we dropped to 10th in the league. Do you have stats on goals scored from turnovers?
• There appears to be only a weak positive correlation between marks i50 and season success. Surprising.

As you probably know I'm bullish about Fergus Greene's prospects. You mentioned his pressure acts and his M50s. One thing that annoys me is that he had one game where he kicked 1.4 from about 6 M50s and he has now been labelled by many as a lousy set shot at goal. (It's a very BF thing to pigeonhole players on the basis of just a handful of games, unfortunately.) My understanding was that apart from that one game he has been a pretty accurate set shot. VFL watchers might be able to comment more authoritatively on that. For the record, he has kicked 4.6 in his 4 games of senior footy and that includes the 1.4 against Norf.

I'm guessing your Fergus comment about assumed inaccuracy is in part a response to my earlier post. Had a look and you are correct, he has had one inaccurate game and three reasonable ones. The problem is, he only has four games total to his name, so it's pretty hard to make a firm judgement either way! I fervently hope that you are right and that he hasn't caught the semi-permanent yips that the rest of the team (other than Dickson) have got.

Like you, I suspect many of us are keen to understand which trait/s are key to improve to fix our forward line woes, rather than just throwing players names around. The tackling stats are very interesting, but seem to suggest that we're not too far behind in raw tackle numbers - it's either tackling effectively or subsequent use of the ball that we appear to be deficient in. Is this a physical issue (not big/fit enough) or a skills issue? The intercept stat only muddies the water in this regard - are we not big/fit enough to impact the contest, or is the intercept not considered 'completed' unless the ball is used effectively afterwards?

Also agree about the marking stat, surprisingly seems to be the weakest predictor of success (and feeds the narrative of 'the day of the marking/power forwards has ended, only mobile forwards can lead to victory). Is there any evidence to the contrary? Are we missing a qualitative measure of these marks, on the basis that a mark in the pocket or on the edge of the F50 is not 'equal' to one that is taken 30m directly in front?

 

[Lex22]

Boyd needs to be played forward next year. Even though hes a rubbish mark, hes such a massive unit who can bring the ball to ground when we bomb long to the top of the square which we love to do. He will also just get a lot of free kicks from being so big and making defenders panic. My forward line for next year would be:

Gowers Schache Dale
Lipi Boyd Dickson

Greene as depth.

That's two 200cm blokes. One who can mark and play up the ground and one who can crash the packs. The rest are either good kicks at goal (Lipi, Dickson, Dale, Greene), good overhead (Gowers, Dale), or good lead up players (Dickson, Greene, Gowers).

No Dahlhaus in the forward line for mine. Worst shot at goal I've ever seen play the game. Absolute liability every time he has a set shot as he is guaranteed to give the ball back to the opposition for one behind. We have enough midfielders who can snap from a forward 50 stoppage.

If Picken plays on next year he is a lock for one of those small forward spots as he can do it all and is the best pressure forward on our list.

Agree regarding Boyd and hopefully he can improve with his marking as he grows in confidence. Not a natural clunker which is the worry but on occasion has shown he’s capable of doing it.

His most underrated skill is his hands and vision at the second effort and ground balls, he’s very smart in that regard and it could be a weapon in a functional forward line. I feel the coaching group perhaps think he’s a liability when mostly playing forward and I’m not saying they’re wrong, I just think he has more tricks that don’t appear as obvious to some.

 

[BEaston]

I think Ferg's misses on goal that day were a product of where he was kicking them from, rather than any inherent technique or mental/pressure issues. Looks to be a very nice kick of the ball.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

• There appears to be only a weak positive correlation between marks i50 and season success. Surprising.

Also agree about the marking stat, surprisingly seems to be the weakest predictor of success (and feeds the narrative of 'the day of the marking/power forwards has ended, only mobile forwards can lead to victory). Is there any evidence to the contrary? Are we missing a qualitative measure of these marks, on the basis that a mark in the pocket or on the edge of the F50 is not 'equal' to one that is taken 30m directly in front?

There are many ways to skin a cat and matchups can dictate how effective these strengths really are.

If we take 2016 for example, the Cats were a dominant Inside 50, Contested Marking and Mark Inside 50 team. They averaged 57 Inside 50's per game and had a +12 differential per game (ranked 1) across the season. When we played them during the H&A season we stopped this Inside 50 domination holding them to 44 in Rnd 13 and 47 in Rnd 19. What we couldn't stop was their Contested Marking and Marking Inside 50. In Round 13 they took a staggering 20 marks inside 50 from their 44 entries and belted us 10 goals. In Round 19 we held them to 11 but they also had a Contested Marking differential of 14 to 4. They took away our strength of wanting the ball on the deck and exploited our weakness of defending the ball in the air.

Fast Forward a few weeks to the finals and Geelong face their own matchup nightmare...the Swans. They have a whopping +32 in Inside 50 differential (72 for the match) yet take only 7 marks Inside 50 as Rampe and Grundy control the air and Zak Jones has 15 rebounds when the ball hits the ground. Again the Swans were able to exploit the Cats weakness (Ball on the ground inside their 50) and play to their own strengths. In the GF the Swans were still dominant in the air with Grundy and Rampe intercepting regularly but they couldn't get the ball out once it hit the deck. The game was played on our terms and we eventually overwhelmed them.

Would it have been a different story if we had faced the Cats in the finals? Who knows? I'd like to think that we would've got hold of them on the 'G and that nothing was stopping us that year...what can't be denied though is that the matchups fell in our favour. There is a reason the Cats were the only team we didn't beat in 2016, they knew how to stop us. Their gameplan based around strong marking failed because they faced the only team that could beat them in the air. If Isaac Smith had have kicked a goal that whole finals series could have played out a hell of a lot differently than it did.

 

[dogwatch]

Thanks for the hard yakka on the stats, Wally. Good stuff.

Some things that stood out for me:

• Richmond going from 18th in tackles i50 in 2016 (avge 8.2 when they finished 13th) to 1st in 2017 (14.3 premiers). This is too small a sample to be conclusive but it is still a very tantalising stat.
• Stringer's dramatic decline from being AA in 2015 to being shown the door in 2017: Tackles i50 - 1.27/1.09/0.50, Marks i50 - 38/29/23. I'd be interested to know whether he has managed to turn those stats around in his new environment. I'd expect he has (slightly).
• The importance and attention placed on turnovers/intercepts. From 2016 to 2018 the AFL average obviously went up a lot. We were 7th in intercept possessions in 2016 with 67.3. In 2018 we lifted that more than 6% to 71.7 but we dropped to 10th in the league. Do you have stats on goals scored from turnovers?
• There appears to be only a weak positive correlation between marks i50 and season success. Surprising.

As you probably know I'm bullish about Fergus Greene's prospects. You mentioned his pressure acts and his M50s. One thing that annoys me is that he had one game where he kicked 1.4 from about 6 M50s and he has now been labelled by many as a lousy set shot at goal. (It's a very BF thing to pigeonhole players on the basis of just a handful of games, unfortunately.) My understanding was that apart from that one game he has been a pretty accurate set shot. VFL watchers might be able to comment more authoritatively on that. For the record, he has kicked 4.6 in his 4 games of senior footy and that includes the 1.4 against Norf.

Regarding Stringer's form this year compared to 2015-17:

Tackles: his average tackle count (2.63/game) is up there close to his 2015 best ever (2.68). Don't know where to find i50 tackles.
Marks i50: Ditto. This year's numbers (1.68/gm) close to his best year 2015 (1.73).

In the final game tonight he has one tackle and one M50 to half time, so pretty much on par for the year.

His GAs (0.84) are also right up there alongside his 2015 season (0.86). Way ahead of 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.56).

In other words he has given Essendon a lot more than he gave us the last two years. Nowhere near an AA candidate though.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Regarding Stringer's form this year compared to 2015-17:

Tackles: his average tackle count (2.63/game) is up there close to his 2015 best ever (2.68). Don't know where to find i50 tackles.
Marks i50: Ditto. This year's numbers (1.68/gm) close to his best year 2015 (1.73).

In the final game tonight he has one tackle and one M50 to half time, so pretty much on par for the year.

His GAs (0.84) are also right up there alongside his 2015 season (0.86). Way ahead of 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.56).

In other words he has given Essendon a lot more than he gave us the last two years. Nowhere near an AA candidate though.

Inside 50 tackles this season - 0.68 per game. Slight increase on 2017 but well below his 2015 numbers.

 

[Leviticus]

Like TDC, give us some time to read through this incredibly good thread.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

I’m still worried about our forward line but what fills me with a little bit of hope is that teams are finding ways to construct new forward lines very quickly. Looking at the four preliminary finals sides, only West Coast have kept a stable forward line over a number of years, the other sides look unrecognisable than they did two years prior.

Collingwood

2018 Forwards:

Jordan de Goey 41 (19)
Will Hoskin-Elliott 41 (24)
Josh Thomas 38 (24)
Jaidyn Stephenson 35 (24)
Brody Mihocek 26 (14)
Mason Cox 20 (22)

2016 Forwards:

Alex Fasolo 25 (12)
Darcy Moore 24 (17)
Jesse White 23 (16)
Levi Greenwood 18 (21)
Mason Cox 17 (11)
Travis Cloke 17 (13)

Melbourne

2018 Forwards:

Tom McDonald 53 (19)
Jesse Hogan 47 (20)
Jake Melksham 30 (22)
Alex Neal-Bullen 27 (24)
Mitch Hannan 21 (14)
Christian Petracca 19 (23)

2016 Forwards:

Jesse Hogan 41 (21)
Jack Watts 38 (22)
Jeff Garlett 29 (17)
Dean Kent 25 (20)
Max Gawn 16 (22)

Richmond

2018 Forwards:

Jack Riewoldt 65 (23)
Josh Caddy 46 (21)
Dustin Martin 31 (22)
Jason Castagna 26 (21)
Dan Butler 18 (15)
Daniel Rioli 13 (11)

2016 Forwards:

Jack Riewoldt 48 (22)
Sam Lloyd 35 (22)
Ty Vickery 26 (17)
Shane Edwards 15 (19)
Ben Griffiths 14 (13)
Daniel Rioli 13 (18)

West Coast

2018 Forwards:

Jack Darling 44 (19)
Josh Kennedy 36 (12)
Jamie Cripps 34 (23)
Mark LeCras 29 (21)
Willie Rioli 26 (22)
Liam Ryan 19 (11)

2016 Forwards:

Josh Kennedy 82 (23)
Jack Darling 44 (23)
Mark LeCras 38 (23)
Jamie Cripps 28 (23)
Josh Hill 24 (22)

A deeper look at the Collingwood and Melbourne goal kickers as I think they are probably the two sides whose strengths and game strategy are most similar to us. These are their stats prior to the 2018 season.

Collingwood:

Jordan de Goey - 50 games, 36 goals (14 games, 14 goals in 2017)
Will Hoskin-Elliott - 74 games, 60 goals (22 games, 19 goals in 2017)
Josh Thomas - 41 games, 25 goals (9 games, 6 goals in 2017)
Jaidyn Stephenson - yet to debut
Brody Mihocek - yet to debut
Mason Cox - 20 games, 27 goals (9 games, 10 goals in 2017)

Melbourne:

Tom McDonald - 126 games, 31 goals (22 games, 23 goals in 2017)
Jesse Hogan - 51 games, 105 goals (10 games, 20 goals in 2017)
Jake Melksham - 133 games, 78 goals (19 games, 21 goals in 2017)
Alex Neal-Bullen - 34 games, 23 goals (19 games, 15 goals in 2017)
Mitch Hannan - 20 games, 22 goals (all in 2017)
Christian Petracca - 39 games, 38 goals - (22 games, 26 goals in 2017)

Collingwood have a similar forward structure to 2008-09 Bulldogs with a heap of medium sized forwards with Mihocek often playing a defensive forward role on the oppositions main interceptor while Cox is just big and tries to bring it to ground and push up to the wings for a get out option. Melbourne is a bit different in that they still have McDonald and Hogan/Weideman as the key focal targets in more traditional FF/CHF roles with the mid sized players complimenting them.

So while we’re asking ‘where are the goals going to come from?’, things can change very quickly. Collingwood was asking the same questions 12 months ago, Melbourne were asking the same thing 15 months ago. Still a cause of concern though and I’m hoping we add a couple of forwards (mature age and young) to our list this off season. Pace is one thing we need, there is a lot of leg speed looking at those preliminary finals teams. Without checking the stats I’d imagine all those sides are high on the list for scores coming from forward half turnovers.

 

[murphy's twin]

I’m still worried about our forward line but what fills me with a little bit of hope is that teams are finding ways to construct new forward lines very quickly. Looking at the four preliminary finals sides, only West Coast have kept a stable forward line over a number of years, the other sides look unrecognisable than they did two years prior.

Collingwood

2018 Forwards:

Jordan de Goey 41 (19)
Will Hoskin-Elliott 41 (24)
Josh Thomas 38 (24)
Jaidyn Stephenson 35 (24)
Brody Mihocek 26 (14)
Mason Cox 20 (22)

2016 Forwards:

Alex Fasolo 25 (12)
Darcy Moore 24 (17)
Jesse White 23 (16)
Levi Greenwood 18 (21)
Mason Cox 17 (11)
Travis Cloke 17 (13)

Melbourne

2018 Forwards:

Tom McDonald 53 (19)
Jesse Hogan 47 (20)
Jake Melksham 30 (22)
Alex Neal-Bullen 27 (24)
Mitch Hannan 21 (14)
Christian Petracca 19 (23)

2016 Forwards:

Jesse Hogan 41 (21)
Jack Watts 38 (22)
Jeff Garlett 29 (17)
Dean Kent 25 (20)
Max Gawn 16 (22)

Richmond

2018 Forwards:

Jack Riewoldt 65 (23)
Josh Caddy 46 (21)
Dustin Martin 31 (22)
Jason Castagna 26 (21)
Dan Butler 18 (15)
Daniel Rioli 13 (11)

2016 Forwards:

Jack Riewoldt 48 (22)
Sam Lloyd 35 (22)
Ty Vickery 26 (17)
Shane Edwards 15 (19)
Ben Griffiths 14 (13)
Daniel Rioli 13 (18)

West Coast

2018 Forwards:

Jack Darling 44 (19)
Josh Kennedy 36 (12)
Jamie Cripps 34 (23)
Mark LeCras 29 (21)
Willie Rioli 26 (22)
Liam Ryan 19 (11)

2016 Forwards:

Josh Kennedy 82 (23)
Jack Darling 44 (23)
Mark LeCras 38 (23)
Jamie Cripps 28 (23)
Josh Hill 24 (22)

A deeper look at the Collingwood and Melbourne goal kickers as I think they are probably the two sides whose strengths and game strategy are most similar to us. These are their stats prior to the 2018 season.

Collingwood:

Jordan de Goey - 50 games, 36 goals (14 games, 14 goals in 2017)
Will Hoskin-Elliott - 74 games, 60 goals (22 games, 19 goals in 2017)
Josh Thomas - 41 games, 25 goals (9 games, 6 goals in 2017)
Jaidyn Stephenson - yet to debut
Brody Mihocek - yet to debut
Mason Cox - 20 games, 27 goals (9 games, 10 goals in 2017)

Melbourne:

Tom McDonald - 126 games, 31 goals (22 games, 23 goals in 2017)
Jesse Hogan - 51 games, 105 goals (10 games, 20 goals in 2017)
Jake Melksham - 133 games, 78 goals (19 games, 21 goals in 2017)
Alex Neal-Bullen - 34 games, 23 goals (19 games, 15 goals in 2017)
Mitch Hannan - 20 games, 22 goals (all in 2017)
Christian Petracca - 39 games, 38 goals - (22 games, 26 goals in 2017)

Collingwood have a similar forward structure to 2008-09 Bulldogs with a heap of medium sized forwards with Mihocek often playing a defensive forward role on the oppositions main interceptor while Cox is just big and tries to bring it to ground and push up to the wings for a get out option. Melbourne is a bit different in that they still have McDonald and Hogan/Weideman as the key focal targets in more traditional FF/CHF roles with the mid sized players complimenting them.

So while we’re asking ‘where are the goals going to come from?’, things can change very quickly. Collingwood was asking the same questions 12 months ago, Melbourne were asking the same thing 15 months ago. Still a cause of concern though and I’m hoping we add a couple of forwards (mature age and young) to our list this off season. Pace is one thing we need, there is a lot of leg speed looking at those preliminary finals teams. Without checking the stats I’d imagine all those sides are high on the list for scores coming from forward half turnovers.

Seriously what a sensational analysis.

Well done.

I feel this post deserves some further discussion.

It really is facinating how those 3 clubs (Richmond, Melbourne, and Collingwood) have turned around there forward line so dramatically.

The turn around obviously has many factors, including the style they play further up the field.

Without wanting to analise too much on the history (how they got there), I think we should focus on on the type of players they have in there.

I think what’s interesting is that both collingwood and Richmond only have the one focal point, and Melbourne and West coast have the two. So obviously either works.

What this really tells me is it’s vitally important to load your forward line with highly skilled players. At the end of the day, their job is to “finish off the work”. For this point I really love the Collingwood example you gave.

Collingwood have 3 highly skilled movers in Jordan de Goey, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jaidyn Stephenson. Along with Josh Thomas (opportunist?? Haven’t seen him much). Which is then complimented by the big bodied Brody Mihocek and the tall Target in Cox.

Now if you compare this to our hopeful 2019 forward line:

Highly skilled-
Wingard
Schache (yes I see him in this category)

Tall target - Boyd

Big body - Gowers

Opportunist - Wallis/Dickson/Lloyd/Green

Now what’s obvious here is we are still short by one high skilled forward (even after Wingard). As Fronk has mentioned.

We have two options:
Either be pacient and wait for possibly lipinski, Richards, Bailey Dale or even Lynch to grow into this role.

Or

Trade for another proven talent now.

My gut feel is we are on the right track here with the players we have plus Wingard and Lloyd.

Edit: left out Wallis! Who is in a small group in the afl who has averaged a goal a game plus at least 20 disposals this year.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Regarding Boyd, in his first game back this season he moved better than I’ve ever seen him as a forward.

If it weren’t for the fact we were getting smashed in the middle with English and Roughead there (and Trengove in the backline) I think he would have spent a lot more time there.

If his body and mind are right I think he’ll be fine to swing between deep forward and second ruck and if he snags over a goal a game and gives quality ruck relief he’s doing his job (ie 2016 output). Bonus would be 1.5 a game.

 

[Urtle]

Regarding Boyd, in his first game back this season he moved better than I’ve ever seen him as a forward.

If it weren’t for the fact we were getting smashed in the middle with English and Roughead there (and Trengove in the backline) I think he would have spent a lot more time there.

If his body and mind are right I think he’ll be fine to swing between deep forward and second ruck and if he snags over a goal a game and gives quality ruck relief he’s doing his job (ie 2016 output). Bonus would be 1.5 a game.

Appreciate need to walk as well as talk, but listening to him on both external media interviews and the podcast, he sounds in a much better place mentally, Im of the firm opinion we will see better performing and more consistent version in 2019, the main dynamic being what his role will be, driven by the structure of the team.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

I’m still worried about our forward line but what fills me with a little bit of hope is that teams are finding ways to construct new forward lines very quickly. Looking at the four preliminary finals sides, only West Coast have kept a stable forward line over a number of years, the other sides look unrecognisable than they did two years prior.

Collingwood

2018 Forwards:

Jordan de Goey 41 (19)
Will Hoskin-Elliott 41 (24)
Josh Thomas 38 (24)
Jaidyn Stephenson 35 (24)
Brody Mihocek 26 (14)
Mason Cox 20 (22)

2016 Forwards:

Alex Fasolo 25 (12)
Darcy Moore 24 (17)
Jesse White 23 (16)
Levi Greenwood 18 (21)
Mason Cox 17 (11)
Travis Cloke 17 (13)

Melbourne

2018 Forwards:

Tom McDonald 53 (19)
Jesse Hogan 47 (20)
Jake Melksham 30 (22)
Alex Neal-Bullen 27 (24)
Mitch Hannan 21 (14)
Christian Petracca 19 (23)

2016 Forwards:

Jesse Hogan 41 (21)
Jack Watts 38 (22)
Jeff Garlett 29 (17)
Dean Kent 25 (20)
Max Gawn 16 (22)

Richmond

2018 Forwards:

Jack Riewoldt 65 (23)
Josh Caddy 46 (21)
Dustin Martin 31 (22)
Jason Castagna 26 (21)
Dan Butler 18 (15)
Daniel Rioli 13 (11)

2016 Forwards:

Jack Riewoldt 48 (22)
Sam Lloyd 35 (22)
Ty Vickery 26 (17)
Shane Edwards 15 (19)
Ben Griffiths 14 (13)
Daniel Rioli 13 (18)

West Coast

2018 Forwards:

Jack Darling 44 (19)
Josh Kennedy 36 (12)
Jamie Cripps 34 (23)
Mark LeCras 29 (21)
Willie Rioli 26 (22)
Liam Ryan 19 (11)

2016 Forwards:

Josh Kennedy 82 (23)
Jack Darling 44 (23)
Mark LeCras 38 (23)
Jamie Cripps 28 (23)
Josh Hill 24 (22)

A deeper look at the Collingwood and Melbourne goal kickers as I think they are probably the two sides whose strengths and game strategy are most similar to us. These are their stats prior to the 2018 season.

Collingwood:

Jordan de Goey - 50 games, 36 goals (14 games, 14 goals in 2017)
Will Hoskin-Elliott - 74 games, 60 goals (22 games, 19 goals in 2017)
Josh Thomas - 41 games, 25 goals (9 games, 6 goals in 2017)
Jaidyn Stephenson - yet to debut
Brody Mihocek - yet to debut
Mason Cox - 20 games, 27 goals (9 games, 10 goals in 2017)

Melbourne:

Tom McDonald - 126 games, 31 goals (22 games, 23 goals in 2017)
Jesse Hogan - 51 games, 105 goals (10 games, 20 goals in 2017)
Jake Melksham - 133 games, 78 goals (19 games, 21 goals in 2017)
Alex Neal-Bullen - 34 games, 23 goals (19 games, 15 goals in 2017)
Mitch Hannan - 20 games, 22 goals (all in 2017)
Christian Petracca - 39 games, 38 goals - (22 games, 26 goals in 2017)

Collingwood have a similar forward structure to 2008-09 Bulldogs with a heap of medium sized forwards with Mihocek often playing a defensive forward role on the oppositions main interceptor while Cox is just big and tries to bring it to ground and push up to the wings for a get out option. Melbourne is a bit different in that they still have McDonald and Hogan/Weideman as the key focal targets in more traditional FF/CHF roles with the mid sized players complimenting them.

So while we’re asking ‘where are the goals going to come from?’, things can change very quickly. Collingwood was asking the same questions 12 months ago, Melbourne were asking the same thing 15 months ago. Still a cause of concern though and I’m hoping we add a couple of forwards (mature age and young) to our list this off season. Pace is one thing we need, there is a lot of leg speed looking at those preliminary finals teams. Without checking the stats I’d imagine all those sides are high on the list for scores coming from forward half turnovers.

Lets also look at Marks Inside 50 for the Preliminary Finalists;

Coll:
1. Hoskin-Elliott (Eq 1st for Goals)
2. DeGoey (Eq 1st for Goals)
3. Cox (6th)
4. Stephenson (4th)

Melb:
1. Macdonald (1st)
2. Hogan (2nd)
3. Melksham (3rd)
4. Neal-Bullen (4th)

Rich:
1. Riewoldt (1st)
2. Castagna (4th)
3. Caddy (2nd)
4. Martin (3rd)

WCE:
1. Darling (1st)
2. Kennedy (2nd)
3. Cripps (3rd)
4. LeCras (4th)

Dogs:
1. Gowers (1st)
2. Schache (4th)
3. Hunter (Eq 8th)*
4. Dunkley (6th)

*75 players took 17 or more Marks Inside 50. Hunter was the only one not to reach double figures in goals kicked.

2 mids and 2 first year Bulldogs as our top 4 for Marks Inside 50.

The health of Dickson/Picken and the potential recruitment of Wingard along with the progression of Schache/Gowers/Greene will have a big say in our fortunes next year.

 

[Whoyagot]

Seriously what a sensational analysis.

Well done.

I feel this post deserves some further discussion.

It really is facinating how those 3 clubs (Richmond, Melbourne, and Collingwood) have turned around there forward line so dramatically.

The turn around obviously has many factors, including the style they play further up the field.

Without wanting to analise too much on the history (how they got there), I think we should focus on on the type of players they have in there.

I think what’s interesting is that both collingwood and Richmond only have the one focal point, and Melbourne and West coast have the two. So obviously either works.

What this really tells me is it’s vitally important to load your forward line with highly skilled players. At the end of the day, their job is to “finish off the work”. For this point I really love the Collingwood example you gave.

Collingwood have 3 highly skilled movers in Jordan de Goey, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jaidyn Stephenson. Along with Josh Thomas (opportunist?? Haven’t seen him much). Which is then complimented by the big bodied Brody Mihocek and the tall Target in Cox.

Now if you compare this to our hopeful 2019 forward line:

Highly skilled-
Wingard
Schache (yes I see him in this category)

Tall target - Boyd

Big body - Gowers

Opportunist - Wallis/Dickson/Lloyd/Green

Now what’s obvious here is we are still short by one high skilled forward (even after Wingard). As Fronk has mentioned.

We have two options:
Either be pacient and wait for possibly lipinski, Richards, Bailey Dale or even Lynch to grow into this role.

Or

Trade for another proven talent now.

My gut feel is we are on the right track here with the players we have plus Wingard and Lloyd.

Edit: left out Wallis! Who is in a small group in the afl who has averaged a goal a game plus at least 20 disposals this year.

Mitch McGovern!!