A Highly Unhelpful Mock Draft

[David C]

Do you see the Bulldogs bidding on Connor Ballenden HF?

I also see Gryan Miers as a reach at pick 18, would much rather go for one of the mids/potential mids that were still on your board eg. Aiden Bonar, Matthew Ling, Lachlan Fogarty, James Worpel or even mature ager Tim Kelly. Chris Fagan and David Noble have made it very clear that we are after mids so I can't see us selecting Callum Coleman-Jones or Oscar Clavarino.

I've got the fingers crossed that Connor Ballenden is not bid on before 18 and that we use our 2 picks in the 40s to match the bid on him which appears to be the plan, if that is the case going by who you have available at our picks I would be hoping for.

1- Luke Davies-Uniacke but would be happy with Cameron Rayner or Paddy Dow as well.
15- Charlie Constable.
18- Aiden Bonar and I would be fine with reaching for James Worpel or Tim Kelly.
+ Connor Ballenden and maybe Jack Payne.

If we have a pick still left I would love us to take one of Liam Ryan, Adam Sambono or Sam Switkowski.

This is a much more likely first 3 picks. Can't see a bid for Ballenden until after pick 20 and Noble made it quite clear the first 3 picks would most likely be mids. LUD at pick 1 makes sense as his parents own a house in Brisbane.

 

[cityslick1]

Can’t recall if it was Leigh Matthews or perhaps Malcolm Blight who I first heard this from:

“If you’re 5 foot 8, you’ve got 5 minutes to show me you can play. If you’re 6 foot 6, you’ve got 5 years to show me you can’t play”.

That’s obviously a generalisation but one of the reasons clubs use the rookie List for tall “project players” is that they feel there’s a big gap between where the kid is at when rookied, and where they need to get to in order to play AFL, BUT they’re optimistic that if/when it can be narrowed, they’ll get a better long term player than someone who has a “lower ceiling“.

No doubt if a club drafts/rookies a player with the intention of him playing a particular role, or two (eg. forward crumber with defensive attributes) and coaches him accordingly and THEN changes its view after a year or two, it’s only fair to give that player time to adjust. A bit like being re-drafted.

History suggests the most successful Long term rookie listers (eg. M. Boys, Priddis, Maxwell, Kirk, Jack, Sewell) are the smalls/mids who don’t get senior listed but bust their arse in the AFL environment and earn promotion on merit rather than potential.

As for Kade Stewart - I’m not really sure why he regressed but hopefully he gets to continue on in 2018

Might've been Bucks or Derek Hine... 5 years is exactly how long Corey Gault was on our list

 

[Hellgood]

Might've been Bucks or Derek Hine... 5 years is exactly how long Corey Gault was on our list

Gault has a bit about his game to like though, I reckon any club would've given him five.

 

[HedgeFund]

Gault has a bit about his game to like though, I reckon any club would've given him five.

A bit - Yes.
A lot - sadly no.

 

[samass03]

Awesome effort love Miller at 81 to dogs but we will most likely be giving a list spot to Roark Smith with that pick

 

[nightstalker]

HedgeFund freo taking Brayshaw at 2 would strengthen the chance they take Naughton at 5? Or do you see them investing heavily in the midfield?

I must admit I’ve seen very little of Murphy. What’s his strengths/weaknesses & which current player/s do you compare his style to?

Think Freo will go all mid like St Kilda.

 

[footyfan1978]

No way is Kevin Sheedy being picked up before Ben Cousins.

 

[HedgeFund]

No way is Kevin Sheedy being picked up before Ben Cousins.

Kevin can start preseason immediately.

Benny needs clean screens to get paroled - otherwise he can’t start training until March 2018.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

If what the Freo fans are barking on about is true, they’re well stocked for key talls (at least defensively). So I wouldn’t be surprised if they take 2 midfielders with their high picks.

Murphy plays like Corey Enright did with Geelong. Good at rolling off, but not loose and can shut down an opponent. When the ball hits the deck he has good agility and closing speed. Super honest and hates getting beaten.

Invariably kicks long though, so an RFI would be working on lowering his eyes a bit and hitting shorter targets where appropriate.

How does he project going forward? Remain a utility? Winger? Could he transition to midfield/how has his contested footy looked?

 

[Maggsy]

This phantom draft is ridiculous,. How could you possibly not rate Neil Balme as late 1st / early 2nd(at worst)?

Slipping to 92,.. Come on mate, get fair dinkum.

I mean,. just look at him. Definite X-factor.

 

[HedgeFund]

This phantom draft is ridiculous,. How could you possibly not rate Neil Balme as late 1st / early 2nd(at worst)?

Slipping to 92,.. Come on mate, get fair dinkum.

I mean,. just look at him. Definite X-factor.

View attachment 435777

I may not have met you Maggsy, but I really like the cut of your jib!

 

[HedgeFund]

How does he project going forward? Remain a utility? Winger? Could he transition to midfield/how has his contested footy looked?

Rarely beaten in the air, bodywork at ground level is sound. Does he back himself when it’s bobbling around and there’s 10-14 players in the immediate vicinity?.....not yet. However that’s not the be all and end all of playing midfield.

Won’t shirk a contest, happily rolls his sleeves up. Just needs to learn the craft of pushing off quickly for a ground ball in the hurly-burly of footy between the arcs.

He’ll be fine. Has good poise and is rarely tackled as he is very slippery.

 

[jesterwester]

Curious on your WC picks- do you see Starcevich really being that high? I do want him at WC, but just curious to know why you have him at 21 when others are mid to late 2nd round.

And Kyron Hayden over Bailey? Is that due to something you have heard, or best fit in your opinion?

Good effort, btw. As for those concerned about cousins- the guy will walk out of jail ready to run out a match. He's a freak athletically. You may have trouble getting him there, mind.

 

[6yearsold]

no chance syd will go near either hayes or fogarty with those selections. you have no idea.

 

[meima]

no chance syd will go near either hayes or fogarty with those selections. you have no idea.

That is why it call a highly unhelpful mock draft .

 

[Quixote]

Surprised at one particular slider in round 5. I've got Your Mum earmarked for #69

I think she'll make for a quality pickup Your Mum, not to mention she'll come cheap. I'd be happy with her on top of Boner.

 

[Barrels]

I find it difficult to trust you Hedgey. So difficult. Your chat is rubbish.

But that’s an excellent draft for us.

 

[foodles05]

Can’t recall if it was Leigh Matthews or perhaps Malcolm Blight who I first heard this from:

“If you’re 5 foot 8, you’ve got 5 minutes to show me you can play. If you’re 6 foot 6, you’ve got 5 years to show me you can’t play”.

That’s obviously a generalisation but one of the reasons clubs use the rookie List for tall “project players” is that they feel there’s a big gap between where the kid is at when rookied, and where they need to get to in order to play AFL, BUT they’re optimistic that if/when it can be narrowed, they’ll get a better long term player than someone who has a “lower ceiling“.

No doubt if a club drafts/rookies a player with the intention of him playing a particular role, or two (eg. forward crumber with defensive attributes) and coaches him accordingly and THEN changes its view after a year or two, it’s only fair to give that player time to adjust. A bit like being re-drafted.

History suggests the most successful Long term rookie listers (eg. M. Boys, Priddis, Maxwell, Kirk, Jack, Sewell) are the smalls/mids who don’t get senior listed but bust their arse in the AFL environment and earn promotion on merit rather than potential.

As for Kade Stewart - I’m not really sure why he regressed but hopefully he gets to continue on in 2018

Think to be fair it was the great Phil Jackson of Chicago Bulls fame who first used that quote about size and how long it gives you to prove yourself. Think either that is what you are referring to or they just stole it off him and adjusted the heights to fit AFL.

 

[HedgeFund]

I find it difficult to trust you Hedgey. So difficult. Your chat is rubbish.

But that’s an excellent draft for us.

That’s all that matters Barrels.

I never told you I was trustworthy. It comes with the profession.

 

[chels]

g'day Hedge
a philosphical question for you. When establishing your mock draft how do you personally weigh one player's previous performances (say back to 2015, 2016) versus a player with a limited history (e.g., one who has now chosen footy over another sport)?

 

[HedgeFund]

g'day Hedge
a philosphical question for you. When establishing your mock draft how do you personally weigh one player's previous performances (say back to 2015, 2016) versus a player with a limited history (e.g., one who has now chosen footy over another sport)?

2015 - irrelevant
2016 - 20% weight
2017 autumn - 30% weight
2017 winter/spring - 50% weight

I know more about the history of someone like Murphy than most on here, plus I’ve seen how recruiters are falling over him at games. Hence I rate him higher than most who have less involvement.

Based on the above weighting I also wouldn’t rank Aaron Darling ahead of, say, Angus Styles. Unfortunately Darling has been unable to do anything for the 2017 season. Last match I saw him play (TAC semi final 2016) he was nowhere near it.

 

[triggering bro]

2015 - irrelevant
2016 - 20% weight
2017 autumn - 30% weight
2017 winter/spring - 50% weight

I know more about the history of someone like Murphy than most on here, plus I’ve seen how recruiters are falling over him at games. Hence I rate him higher than most who have less involvement.

Based on the above weighting I also wouldn’t rank Aaron Darling ahead of, say, Angus Styles. Unfortunately Darling has been unable to do anything for the 2017 season. Last match I saw him play (TAC semi final 2016) he was nowhere near it.

Murphy strongly linked to Collingwood, can you corroborate?

 

[HedgeFund]

Murphy strongly linked to Collingwood, can you corroborate?

They were the first club to scout him specifically at APS games and urged him to return to TAC.

Makes complete sense.

Would they pull the trigger on him at #6? I’ve got him going to St Kilda at #8, so IMO it’s obviously not a big stretch!

 

[triggering bro]

They were the first club to scout him specifically at APS games and urged him to return to TAC.

Makes complete sense.

Would they pull the trigger on him at #6? I’ve got him going to St Kilda at #8, so IMO it’s obviously not a big stretch!

I must admit he’s growing on me. Admittedly I’ve only seen his highlights but he looks the goods

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Our drafting recently has been odd to say the least. Frankly it seems that we have essentially spurned the under 18s in deference to trading in mature players to fill immediate needs.

As several here have said before, it’s an absolute lottery after about pick 30. Hawks don’t have a pick until 43. Whilst no doubt there will be players available there who end up playing solid careers and perhaps become elite, picking which ones Hawthorn will seek to land is problematic. All four are from Melbourne/Victoria. Stoddart is in the Box Hill zone, Wellings and Brayshaw are already mature (19yo) and are/were TAC club captains. Amartey is a developing ruckman (which we need) and could be anything with more intensive coaching. I like them all.

Stoddart looks like the exact player Wright would take. Left footer, with a nice sidestep.