Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[GenericUsername202]

Cairns and Townsville are "similar" populations, but there's a few nuances.

• Townsville is about 15% bigger
• An NRL club is cheaper to run than an AFL club
• Townsville is much more pro-NRL than Cairns is pro-AFL

You can't just copy the Cowboys and expect it to work.

With that logic, you wouldn't move any team into a non AFL state. Also, why move an AFL team into Tasmania when both Hobart and Launceston have a population of around 70k each? Also, Hobart has a dismal population growth forecast of only 8k in the next 40 years. Meanwhile Cairns should grow another 50k in the same timeframe. So while Tasmania is an AFL state, the AFL moved a team into a city with almost no growth and the population is less than half what it is in Cairns. And i feel like i keep needing to repeat this, but you do know that AFL teams are meant to be created to grow the game? What state is the fastest growing in the league? It's not Victoria, it's not South Aus or Western Aus. The fastest growing state for AFL is QLD. That reason alone means that a 3rd team should be placed here to continue that growth. I also believe a northern qld team makes a lot more sense than a Tasmania team. At least commercially speaking.

 

[Coolangatta]

With that logic, you wouldn't move any team into a non AFL state. Also, why move an AFL team into Tasmania when both Hobart and Launceston have a population of around 70k each? Also, Hobart has a dismal population growth forecast of only 8k in the next 40 years. Meanwhile Cairns should grow another 50k in the same timeframe. So while Tasmania is an AFL state, the AFL moved a team into a city with almost no growth and the population is less than half what it is in Cairns. And i feel like i keep needing to repeat this, but you do know that AFL teams are meant to be created to grow the game? What state is the fastest growing in the league? It's not Victoria, it's not South Aus or Western Aus. The fastest growing state for AFL is QLD. That reason alone means that a 3rd team should be placed here to continue that growth. I also believe a northern qld team makes a lot more sense than a Tasmania team. At least commercially speaking.

Presuming the Giants stay in Sydney forever, what do you think about:

20. Canberra
21. Northern Territory
22. North Queensland

I don’t think the AFL had profit in mind for Tasmania either. It was Tassie kicking and screaming, plus the romanticism and popularity of it all driving it.

There’s no reason they couldn’t do it for the NT in the future, if they ignore the financial pitfalls.

But what I’m asking you is that if Canberra can’t get a relocation, do you think Cairns is a better option than them?

 

[loco3]

Presuming the Giants stay in Sydney forever, what do you think about:

20. Canberra
21. Northern Territory
22. North Queensland

I don’t think the AFL had profit in mind for Tasmania either. It was Tassie kicking and screaming, plus the romanticism and popularity of it all driving it.

There’s no reason they couldn’t do it for the NT in the future, if they ignore the financial pitfalls.

But what I’m asking you is that if Canberra can’t get a relocation, do you think Cairns is a better option than them?

if you’re finishing with 22 teams, you’d go either a NT or NQ (or combined), but not both. There are other markets, such as WA3, Sydney 3, Brisbane/Sunshine Coast that the afl will be interested in.

 

[Canberra Pear]

With that logic, you wouldn't move any team into a non AFL state. Also, why move an AFL team into Tasmania when both Hobart and Launceston have a population of around 70k each? Also, Hobart has a dismal population growth forecast of only 8k in the next 40 years. Meanwhile Cairns should grow another 50k in the same timeframe.

Tasmania is not a comparison you want to use for the viability of a team. The Tasmanian Government literally had to commit $12m per year to convince the AFL it could be paid for (and that's before the stadium dramas).

I think you're also looking at the City of Hobart, rather than Greater Hobart. Hobart had 234k v Cairns' 163k. Hobart also grew 13.9% over the past nine years, compared to Cairns at 10.6%.

Queensland has had great population growth, but that's been disproportionately in Southeast Queensland.

What state is the fastest growing in the league?

And how much of that growth is in northern Queensland? Because if it's anything like the population growth, it looks like your just trying to ride the coat tails of growth in the Southeast.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Tasmania is not a comparison you want to use for the viability of a team. The Tasmanian Government literally had to commit $12m per year to convince the AFL it could be paid for (and that's before the stadium dramas).

I think you're also looking at the City of Hobart, rather than Greater Hobart. Hobart had 234k v Cairns' 163k. Hobart also grew 13.9% over the past nine years, compared to Cairns at 10.6%.

Queensland has had great population growth, but that's been disproportionately in Southeast Queensland.



And how much of that growth is in northern Queensland? Because if it's anything like the population growth, it looks like your just trying to ride the coat tails of growth in the Southeast.

But isn't that more of an argument to have a north queensland team? You have two AFL teams in SE QLD, so of course growth would be from those areas. However, the precedence has been set. It's been proven that putting AFL teams in SE QLD has been successful, thus giving the AFL further incentive to bring a team to NQ. Also, the only reason why an NRL team is being moved into perth is because the goverment are giving financial incentives to NRL. This is normal, and i'm sure a NQ AFL team would receieve funding from the goverment as well if it were to happen. I just hope the AFL aren't stupid enough to make a Darwin team, because that would be a disaster.

 

[Canberra Pear]

But isn't that more of an argument to have a north queensland team?

How? You have 160k people in Cairns. And it's not growing as quickly as the rest of the state.

How is that possibly an argument in favour of a FNQ team?

I just hope the AFL aren't stupid enough to make a Darwin team, because that would be a disaster.

The irony of this. Darwin and Cairns are remarkably similar bids. Small, remote cities, in humid conditions. Except that the NT is more pro-AFL.

You recognise that a Darwin team would be a disaster. How can you see all those things line up as a con for Darwin, but a pro for Cairns?

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

Needs to be a NT team.

 

[Coolangatta]

if you’re finishing with 22 teams, you’d go either a NT or NQ (or combined), but not both. There are other markets, such as WA3, Sydney 3, Brisbane/Sunshine Coast that the afl will be interested in.

Well, if I had to choose between NT and NQ, I’d choose NT.

I just like the idea of every state having their own team (which we’re going to get, finally) + ACT and NT.

But since it’s extremely unlikely we’ll get mergers or relocations, in order to achieve my dream/preference, the AFL would have to go to 22 teams.

I’d prefer 16-20 max, but it is what it is.

And if Victoria is gonna have 10 teams, I feel WA should have a third as I don’t think the Vics should have 5x more teams than WA.

So push comes to shove, I’d probably change to:

20. Canberra 21. NT 22. South West WA.

As keen as I am for expansion, I’m a realist about the Vic clubs and understand that too many teams just makes it harder to win flags and causes issues with quality and league structure.

But I’d still really like to see the ACT and NT in our comp. It would, IMO feel complete.

 

[Cmarsh]

[

Needs to be a NT team.

No there doesn't.

 

[GC2015]

I also read Queensland are on track to crack 90k participants this year, extrodinary growth they were at 79k last year after 15 percent growth.

And there's no doubt that the participation numbers are going to grow even more this year now that both Queensland teams are performing really well on field. I noticed at the Suns game on Sunday that there were people sitting around my section that I'd never seen before and a lot of them had kids who were wearing the new Suns gear that's been released this year. It's growing at a really fast rate up here and that just shows the power of winning games of footy in an expansion market.

Now we get to see the first ever top 4 QClash on Sunday and that's very exciting for footy fans up here. There's a real belief amongst footy fans on the GC that we may actually be capable of upsetting the defending premiers on the home turf. People want to be a part of this movement and they're showing up in droves when compared to crowds we've in the previous years. I've always thought footy would explode up here if we had two highly competitive AFL teams in Queensland and the stats are starting to show that it's happening. Just gotta keep it going and continue to build momentum.

In relation to the thread topic, I think having highly competitive Lions and Suns outfits growing the game at an impressive rate over the next 3-5 years could really switch up the AFL's priorities in terms of expansion. It's going to be hard to ignore Queensland if we keep going from strength to strength between now and 2030. That's when I think a Brisbane2/Sunshine Coast team could legitimately come into play for the 20th licence.

 

[Jibroni]

Norwood would attract more than GC and a 3rd QLD team combined. Until GC can get close to filling their stadium on a regular basis it's a waste of resources.

 

[GC2015]

Norwood would attract more than GC and a 3rd QLD team combined. Until GC can get close to filling their stadium on a regular basis it's a waste of resources.

What's considered filling your stadium on a regular basis? 4 of 9 home games on the Gold Coast were sold out last year. Is that regular enough or do you want to see more? Our club admin stated last year that once that number goes above 50% sell outs, which is almost happening already, then they are going to start the process of expanding the stadium.

Brisbane sell out almost every game they play at the Gabba these days. Hence the reason they're now getting a stadium virtually double the size of the Gabba.

 

[Purple Suit]

What's considered filling your stadium on a regular basis? 4 of 9 home games on the Gold Coast were sold out last year. Is that regular enough or do you want to see more? Our club admin stated last year that once that number goes above 50% sell outs, which is almost happening already, then they are going to start the process of expanding the stadium.

Brisbane sell out almost every game they play at the Gabba these days. Hence the reason they're now getting a stadium virtually double the size of the Gabba.

More than 17k average attendance after almost 15 years in the competition.

Brisbane are averaging 30k at home for a 42k stadium according to Google so they appear to be short. Especially considering they just won a flag.

Fill the new stadium and get the GC profitable and we can talk.

WA3 based in Perth will be a cash cow. Especially if WC do a North and remaining uncompetitive for a long time. Can steal fans off them with zero affect on attendance.

WC currently averaging 48k (including a Derby) but selling out the 60k.
Freo at 46k attendance, probably selling 50k worth of seats.

We’ve only got less than 10% capacity left over here and it will be gone before they can add a new team. A new team will average 30k plus first year.

 

[go_the_dockers]

More than 17k average attendance after almost 15 years in the competition.

Brisbane are averaging 30k at home for a 42k stadium according to Google so they appear to be short. Especially considering they just won a flag.

Fill the new stadium and get the GC profitable and we can talk.

WA3 based in Perth will be a cash cow. Especially if WC do a North and remaining uncompetitive for a long time. Can steal fans off them with zero affect on attendance.

WC currently averaging 48k (including a Derby) but selling out the 60k.
Freo at 46k attendance, probably selling 50k worth of seats.

We’ve only got less than 10% capacity left over here and it will be gone before they can add a new team. A new team will average 30k plus first year.

I assume west coast still have a large membership waiting list, but are obviously having a few bad years.

Perth has roughly 2.5 million people, could easily support a 3rd team. The hard bit is most of the supporters, already support a different team. They would need to do a lot of work to get supporters, and be set up to succeed.

 

[Bjo187]

And there's no doubt that the participation numbers are going to grow even more this year now that both Queensland teams are performing really well on field. I noticed at the Suns game on Sunday that there were people sitting around my section that I'd never seen before and a lot of them had kids who were wearing the new Suns gear that's been released this year. It's growing at a really fast rate up here and that just shows the power of winning games of footy in an expansion market.

Now we get to see the first ever top 4 QClash on Sunday and that's very exciting for footy fans up here. There's a real belief amongst footy fans on the GC that we may actually be capable of upsetting the defending premiers on the home turf. People want to be a part of this movement and they're showing up in droves when compared to crowds we've in the previous years. I've always thought footy would explode up here if we had two highly competitive AFL teams in Queensland and the stats are starting to show that it's happening. Just gotta keep it going and continue to build momentum.

In relation to the thread topic, I think having highly competitive Lions and Suns outfits growing the game at an impressive rate over the next 3-5 years could really switch up the AFL's priorities in terms of expansion. It's going to be hard to ignore Queensland if we keep going from strength to strength between now and 2030. That's when I think a Brisbane2/Sunshine Coast team could legitimately come into play for the 20th licence.

Out of curiosity, how does the gc stadium clock up these big attendance numbers when the stands look pretty empty? Do people stand up the back of level one? I know that happens at giants stadium, but I haven't been to the gc stadium since about 2013, so don't remember. Honestly on tv it looks 1/3rd seats taken at best, which is 8k, yet the total came out at 18k.

It's kinda a design flaw of both stadiums imo when it encourages attendees to stand up the back outta sight, as you want the stands to look fuller to attract more fans to attend.

More than 17k average attendance after almost 15 years in the competition.

Brisbane are averaging 30k at home for a 42k stadium according to Google so they appear to be short. Especially considering they just won a flag.

The gabba capacity is only 34k these days so yes most of their games do sellout. The capacity figure online is well outdated, Greg Swan even said it's 34k now on the radio a couple of weeks ago.

 

[GC2015]

More than 17k average attendance after almost 15 years in the competition.

Brisbane are averaging 30k at home for a 42k stadium according to Google so they appear to be short. Especially considering they just won a flag.

Fill the new stadium and get the GC profitable and we can talk.

You're ignoring the cancelled Opening Round game that was sold out and would have pulled that average over 20k. I'm not going to pretend like 20k is impressive on a national scale, but you have to think of it in terms of the market size. The Gold Coast is a small market of around 700k people that traditionally supported rugby league more than other sports and 20k is considered a good crowd here for sports events given the size of the market. For context, Brisbane is more than 4x bigger than the Gold Coast in terms of population and they only average just over 30k so you really have to look at it fairly to assess the performance of a team/market.

It'd be like criticising Geelong for only pulling 30k to the Demons game a few weeks ago when teams in Melbourne pulled 60k+. You have to assess the market itself and take into consideration factors like population, traditions etc. FWIW I think the fact that plans were released to upgrade the GC stadium to 35-40k last year probably shows that the Suns admin are expecting a big increase in crowds over the next few years and will need to cater to considerably larger demand in the near future. Here's a render of the upgraded stadium they released last year, if you're interested:

WA3 based in Perth will be a cash cow. Especially if WC do a North and remaining uncompetitive for a long time. Can steal fans off them with zero affect on attendance.

WC currently averaging 48k (including a Derby) but selling out the 60k.
Freo at 46k attendance, probably selling 50k worth of seats.

We’ve only got less than 10% capacity left over here and it will be gone before they can add a new team. A new team will average 30k plus first year.

That's kind of the biggest problem with the WA3 bid. It doesn't actually grow the game (for the most part). Just transferring a West Coast or Fremantle fan to then support the WA3 team isn't growing the game. Of course there would be a percentage of new footy fans that would jump on board for various reasons, but that would be minimal with a WA3 team.

The counter, and what I believe the AFL actually wants most, is what I'm seeing/hearing at Suns home games this year and that's people who brand new to the game starting to follow footy for the first time and growing the game in a traditionally rugby league dominated area. I'm seeing it at games, I'm seeing it at work, I'm seeing out in public. New footy fans and a lot of them have come from other sports. THAT is crucially important for the future of our game and I believe that gives Queensland a strong case for a 20th licence, should the growth continue on its current trajectory over the next 5 years.

Out of curiosity, how does the gc stadium clock up these big attendance numbers when the stands look pretty empty? Do people stand up the back of level one? I know that happens at giants stadium, but I haven't been to the gc stadium since about 2013, so don't remember. Honestly on tv it looks 1/3rd seats taken at best, which is 8k, yet the total came out at 18k.

It's kinda a design flaw of both stadiums imo when it encourages attendees to stand up the back outta sight, as you want the stands to look fuller to attract more fans to attend.

Just because all seats sell out, doesn't mean everyone is going to show up. That's one factor but you do see a fair amount of fans standing at the back of the first tier in the shade on that eastern/TV broadcast end of the stadium because it can get very hot sitting out there, like we saw on Sunday against the Swans. That probably is a stadium design flaw in the sense that the area you see most on TV also happens to be the area that receives the most direct sunlight. I can guarantee you that most people can't sit in the Queensland sun for more than two hours and will at some point find their way out of the stands and into the shade. So it's deceiving when we host day games. Twilight/night games are a far better representation of the crowd figure when watching on TV.

 

[strand_victor]

And there's no doubt that the participation numbers are going to grow even more this year now that both Queensland teams are performing really well on field. I noticed at the Suns game on Sunday that there were people sitting around my section that I'd never seen before and a lot of them had kids who were wearing the new Suns gear that's been released this year. It's growing at a really fast rate up here and that just shows the power of winning games of footy in an expansion market.

Now we get to see the first ever top 4 QClash on Sunday and that's very exciting for footy fans up here. There's a real belief amongst footy fans on the GC that we may actually be capable of upsetting the defending premiers on the home turf. People want to be a part of this movement and they're showing up in droves when compared to crowds we've in the previous years. I've always thought footy would explode up here if we had two highly competitive AFL teams in Queensland and the stats are starting to show that it's happening. Just gotta keep it going and continue to build momentum.

In relation to the thread topic, I think having highly competitive Lions and Suns outfits growing the game at an impressive rate over the next 3-5 years could really switch up the AFL's priorities in terms of expansion. It's going to be hard to ignore Queensland if we keep going from strength to strength between now and 2030. That's when I think a Brisbane2/Sunshine Coast team could legitimately come into play for the 20th licence.

AFL is Huge in Cairns there needs to be a Team based There before giving Another Team to Brisbane. Lots of Victorians flock There to Escape the Cold Weather.

 

[Cam Payne]

Hope my mob don't have to play in Cairns during March, April or late August. I can guarantee we will though.

There are a few teams like the Pies who already have a heavy travel burden that won't play there or Tassie more than once in a blue moon.

 

[Walshawk]

What's considered filling your stadium on a regular basis? 4 of 9 home games on the Gold Coast were sold out last year. Is that regular enough or do you want to see more? Our club admin stated last year that once that number goes above 50% sell outs, which is almost happening already, then they are going to start the process of expanding the stadium.

Brisbane sell out almost every game they play at the Gabba these days. Hence the reason they're now getting a stadium virtually double the size of the Gabba.

The Olympics is the reason for the new stadium, not the Lions.
There is no way the GC stadium needs expanding. It simply needs better cover/share. Supposedly 18k there v Swans yet the whole out side was empty.

 

[Walshawk]

AFL is Huge in Cairns there needs to be a Team based There before giving Another Team to Brisbane. Lots of Victorians flock There to Escape the Cold Weather.

Cairns is heavily pro-NRL. At least 80-20. You might be thinking of Port Douglas, which is full of Victorians and probably the only pro-AFL town in NSW or QLD north of Holbrook

 

[strand_victor]

The Olympics is the reason for the new stadium, not the Lions.
There is not way the GC stadium needs expanding. It simply needs better cover/share. Supposedly 18k there v Swans yet the whole out side was empty.

The Suns are an Emerging Juggernaut look at their List it's absolutely Stacked. People in Queensland love Winners and they'll Flock to see the Suns play once they're Winning Games on the Regular.

 

[Walshawk]

The Suns are an Emerging Juggernaut look at their List it's absolutely Stacked. People in Queensland love Winners and they'll Flock to see the Suns play once they're Winning Games on the Regular.

Agree. Still no need to expand the stadium. No government is funding that anytime soon anyway.

 

[GC2015]

The Olympics is the reason for the new stadium, not the Lions.
There is no way the GC stadium needs expanding. It simply needs better cover/share. Supposedly 18k there v Swans yet the whole out side was empty.

Yes, but the sell out crowds at the Gabba are the reason that the Lions will be moving to the bigger stadium. The Gabba is clearly too small for the demand we're seeing for Brisbane Lions games.

Here is a great example of what happens on the TV broadcast side during day games on the Gold Coast. People simply refuse to sit in that kind of direct sunlight for over two hours. However, you can see there's a good amount of people sitting towards the back of the second tier where there is shade and the same can be said about the back of the first tier where there is shade.

Agree. Still no need to expand the stadium. No government is funding that anytime soon anyway.

The Gold Coast Mayor has already said he'll fund the upgrade if the state government don't want to because they see it as a piece of infrastructure for many types of events, not just AFL. It can happen if they want it to and I suspect it will in the next 5 or so years as the crowds increase.

 

[Purple Suit]

I assume west coast still have a large membership waiting list, but are obviously having a few bad years.

Perth has roughly 2.5 million people, could easily support a 3rd team. The hard bit is most of the supporters, already support a different team. They would need to do a lot of work to get supporters, and be set up to succeed.

Every where you go people either have a local team, support another team or don't follow AFL. It's the same as Canberra, QLD3 or anywhere else. A new team provides an option but it isn't going to just convert Rugby fans to the sport.

You're ignoring the cancelled Opening Round game that was sold out and would have pulled that average over 20k. I'm not going to pretend like 20k is impressive on a national scale, but you have to think of it in terms of the market size. The Gold Coast is a small market of around 700k people that traditionally supported rugby league more than other sports and 20k is considered a good crowd here for sports events given the size of the market. For context, Brisbane is more than 4x bigger than the Gold Coast in terms of population and they only average just over 30k so you really have to look at it fairly to assess the performance of a team/market.

It'd be like criticising Geelong for only pulling 30k to the Demons game a few weeks ago when teams in Melbourne pulled 60k+. You have to assess the market itself and take into consideration factors like population, traditions etc. FWIW I think the fact that plans were released to upgrade the GC stadium to 35-40k last year probably shows that the Suns admin are expecting a big increase in crowds over the next few years and will need to cater to considerably larger demand in the near future. Here's a render of the upgraded stadium they released last year, if you're interested:

That's kind of the biggest problem with the WA3 bid. It doesn't actually grow the game (for the most part). Just transferring a West Coast or Fremantle fan to then support the WA3 team isn't growing the game. Of course there would be a percentage of new footy fans that would jump on board for various reasons, but that would be minimal with a WA3 team.

The counter, and what I believe the AFL actually wants most, is what I'm seeing/hearing at Suns home games this year and that's people who brand new to the game starting to follow footy for the first time and growing the game in a traditionally rugby league dominated area. I'm seeing it at games, I'm seeing it at work, I'm seeing out in public. New footy fans and a lot of them have come from other sports. THAT is crucially important for the future of our game and I believe that gives Queensland a strong case for a 20th licence, should the growth continue on its current trajectory over the next 5 years.


Just because all seats sell out, doesn't mean everyone is going to show up. That's one factor but you do see a fair amount of fans standing at the back of the first tier in the shade on that eastern/TV broadcast end of the stadium because it can get very hot sitting out there, like we saw on Sunday against the Swans. That probably is a stadium design flaw in the sense that the area you see most on TV also happens to be the area that receives the most direct sunlight. I can guarantee you that most people can't sit in the Queensland sun for more than two hours and will at some point find their way out of the stands and into the shade. So it's deceiving when we host day games. Twilight/night games are a far better representation of the crowd figure when watching on TV.

WA3 as the 20th team does grow the game, it gets an extra 30K home crowd every week and an extra televised game each weekend. Every new market already has 3-4 sporting teams taking a slice of the cake, a stand alone AFL team isn't going to start up in a location with nothing and just convert everyone to the sport. Take a look at GC or GWS, huge markets yet low crowds in comparison.

If you don't cater for fans in WA, they still watch on TV but they spend a lot less. Half the revenue for the game is generated by attendance so you want to keep it ticking along. I'm sure there are heaps of WC fans fed up waiting (maybe if they didn't suck) but they would never in their right mind switch to Freo, drop another team and I recon they will.

We had two expansion teams where attendance isn't big and the third with Tasmania. Time to take the easy option and let the cash cow of the AFL have another calf.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Cairns is heavily pro-NRL. At least 80-20. You might be thinking of Port Douglas, which is full of Victorians and probably the only pro-AFL town in NSW or QLD north of Holbrook

No it isn't. It's more like 60/40 and putting an AFL team there would put AFL over NRL in that area considering Cairns doesn't have a team. It's a smart decision in a lot of aspects.