Traded Adam Cerra traded to Carlton for pick #6 and F3

[Polo342]

It's not about what I'd rather. In this draft, I'd rather Cerra over anything except pick 1 since Daicos isn't available and you can throw a blanket over 2-10 from most reports.

We arent entitled to anything and if Cerra wants to leave we have no choice but to trade him regardless of what we'd rather. On historical trades, pick 7 and a 2nd round pick is reasonable. It's more than Tigers paid for Prestia for example

Thing is that I reckon Cerra is better than Prestia, different players though of coarse haha! I would have thought that Cerra and Pick 30-33 would be good for Richmonds 2 firsts :S

 

[Wizard]

It's not about what I'd rather. In this draft, I'd rather Cerra over anything except pick 1 since Daicos isn't available and you can throw a blanket over 2-10 from most reports.

We arent entitled to anything and if Cerra wants to leave we have no choice but to trade him regardless of what we'd rather. On historical trades, pick 7 and a 2nd round pick is reasonable. It's more than Tigers paid for Prestia for example

I'd take Horne over Cerra.

Assume Daicos and Darcy go 1-2 via bids i think you really need pick 1 to get Horne.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Thing is that I reckon Cerra is better than Prestia haha! I would have thought that Cerra and Pick 30-33 would be good for Richmonds 2 firsts :S

I'd agree at a minimum his potential is higher but that's probably looking at it through purple coloured glasses. Prestia was an absolute gun when traded and even so, Pick 7 and 30 is better than what the Tig's paid so you're still ahead.

I'm just saying to keep expectations in check because you're going to be disappointed at this rate

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'd take Horne over Cerra.

Assume Daicos and Darcy go 1-2 via bids i think you really need pick 1 to get Horne.

Yes, that is what I was saying, the only one in the open draft I'd take over Cerra is Horne, which you would need pick 1 for. If I had pick 2, I'd be breaking that up into two firsts if I could.

 

[raffrox]

The trouble for Freo is having two Melb clubs at the bottom of the ladder.

More often than not ..the OOC player gets to where he wants to go. The AFL clubs generally understand that its in their interest to get less and give more. Its not often that a Martin situation happens...

In general , id like to see players that are OOC be FA. Thats not happening anytime soon but really it might be better if FA was reduced but Cerra has given 4 years... its probably fair to hope for me service than 4 years.

If Cerra say I will just go to another bottom club like North or Haw ... then that outcomes is not ideal for Freo or most in the AFL. For this reason I suspect you get less than you hope

Does that really happen though? A player picks a team and then those two teams are motivated to do a deal. If Cerra wants to go and IF he picks a teams thats not one of those bottom two teams then it won't have any effect on a deal.

 

[Morro]

Pick 7 as it stands is almost bang on value for Cerra right now. There is no way RFC add another 1st or 2nd rounder unless there is further shuffling of picks both ways.

When talking top 10 picks, clubs dont give additional early picks to make up the maybe 1-3 picks away from true value that might occur if you had any pick at your disposal to trade.

Cerra might be worth pick 3-5, Pick 7 will be considered close enough. if we had pick 3-8, that pick would be traded for him and at this stage, 7 seems best case.

Prestia was far more established, proven and a better player when traded for pick 6.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Would you rather have Cerra or Pick 7? The Picks after about 20 are lottery picks anyway really

The whole draft is a lottery.

 

[Polo342]

Pick 7 as it stands is almost bang on value for Cerra right now. There is no way RFC add another 1st or 2nd rounder unless there is further shuffling of picks both ways.

When talking top 10 picks, clubs dont give additional early picks to make up the maybe 1-3 picks away from true value that might occur if you had any pick at your disposal to trade.

Cerra might be worth pick 3-5, Pick 7 will be considered close enough. if we had pick 3-8, that pick would be traded for him and at this stage, 7 seems best case.

Prestia was far more established, proven and a better player when traded for pick 6.

I agree partially with what you're saying. But would you rather a proven player in Cerra or would you rather gamble on Pick 7 being just as good or better? I know that 90 Percent of people would probably say Cerra.

 

[Polo342]

The whole draft is a lottery.

Exactly my point! Cerra is a proven player. Thats why he is worth more than 7 and a pick 40 odd haha

 

[Turbocat]

Does that really happen though? A player picks a team and then those two teams are motivated to do a deal. If Cerra wants to go and IF he picks a teams thats not one of those bottom two teams then it won't have any effect on a deal.

Those two bottom Melb teams give his departure leverage. Would it be that bad for him if he lands at Haw? Its leverage for Freo to get the deal done. Most team talk tough but have a look at how many deals are done late when the pressure builds. The question Freo need to ask themselves. What happens if a deal does not get done. Does he sign and stay. If so ..then stay tough. If not..then you have to be willing to move when the crunch comes.

 

[raffrox]

Pick 7 as it stands is almost bang on value for Cerra right now. There is no way RFC add another 1st or 2nd rounder unless there is further shuffling of picks both ways.

When talking top 10 picks, clubs dont give additional early picks to make up the maybe 1-3 picks away from true value that might occur if you had any pick at your disposal to trade.

Cerra might be worth pick 3-5, Pick 7 will be considered close enough.

Prestia was far more established, proven and a better player when traded for pick 6.

Prestia had missed 22 out of 44 games the two years prior to leaving Gold Coast. He had missed a full season of games in two years.
Prestia was averaging 25.9 possessions per game. Taking out the game where he got injured in the first quarter Cerra is averaging 23.5 possessions per game.
Prestia was also two years older than what Cerra is now. It's more than feasible looking at Cerra's trajectory that he finds another few possessions per game and he uses it better than Prestia has. Cerra has a career disposal efficiency that is higher than Prestia's even though Cerra is still developing (the guy is 21 years of age).

Far more established, proven and better player? I don't think you can say it that strongly. I'd be backing Cerra to be a better player that Prestia but at the least it is debatable.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Exactly my point! Cerra is a proven player. Thats why he is worth more than 7 and a pick 40 odd haha

He's certainly not worth 2 1sts.

 

[Polo342]

Those two bottom Melb teams give his departure leverage. Would it be that bad for him if he lands at Haw? Its leverage for Freo to get the deal done. Most team talk tough but have a look at how many deals are done late when the pressure builds. The question Freo need to ask themselves. What happens if a deal does not get done. Does he sign and stay. If so ..then stay tough. If not..then you have to be willing to move when the crunch comes.

Absolutely agree and look we likely would do the deal if the time came. I just don't think that a club will be bullied into trading a player even if he is uncontracted. Cerra is an absolute gun in the making and even if Richmond gave 2 firsts and got something back they would still be winning this trade

 

[Polo342]

He's certainly not worth 2 1sts.

Well he certainly aint worth Pick 7 alone. Saad went for that last year!! Cerra is already better than Saad. Im sure we both agree that

 

[Morro]

I agree partially with what you're saying. But would you rather a proven player in Cerra or would you rather gamble on Pick 7 being just as good or better? I know that 90 Percent of people would probably say Cerra.

Oh, I would take Cerra with Pick 3-8 if it were up to me. LIke you said, you could draft a spud or a generational player, I would prefer not gamble myself.

 

[Turbocat]

It's not about what I'd rather. In this draft, I'd rather Cerra over anything except pick 1 since Daicos isn't available and you can throw a blanket over 2-10 from most reports.

We arent entitled to anything and if Cerra wants to leave we have no choice but to trade him regardless of what we'd rather. On historical trades, pick 7 and a 2nd round pick is reasonable. It's more than Tigers paid for Prestia for example

Yep. Its super rare when clubs get more value than they probably should. I think that may have been Freo that had the last big win. P7 ..which will be P9 and maybe some steak knives is about the mark. If Rich think they are a serious Flag side next year ..maybe they throw a Fr1 at you for something back... I the Treloar deal was something like that

 

[Morro]

Prestia had missed 22 out of 44 games the two years prior to leaving Gold Coast. He had missed a full season of games in two years.
Prestia was averaging 25.9 possessions per game. Taking out the game where he got injured in the first quarter Cerra is averaging 23.5 possessions per game.
Prestia was also two years older than what Cerra is now. It's more than feasible looking at Cerra's trajectory that he finds another few possessions per game and he uses it better than Prestia has. Cerra has a career disposal efficiency that is higher than Prestia's even though Cerra is still developing (the guy is 21 years of age).

Far more established, proven and better player? I don't think you can say it that strongly. I'd be backing Cerra to be a better player that Prestia but at the least it is debatable.

Prestia was second only to Ablett when posting those numbers at GC, Cerra is far more protected at Freo.

AGree, I am not going to argue on future form, but right now, Prestia was better when traded than Cerra is right now.

 

[Wizard]

The whole draft is a lottery.

Fair enough, if it's a total lottery then we will take 7,16 and next years first.

We can even send you a few later picks back just to balance the "lottery odds".

 

[raffrox]

Those two bottom Melb teams give his departure leverage. Would it be that bad for him if he lands at Haw? Its leverage for Freo to get the deal done. Most team talk tough but have a look at how many deals are done late when the pressure builds. The question Freo need to ask themselves. What happens if a deal does not get done. Does he sign and stay. If so ..then stay tough. If not..then you have to be willing to move when the crunch comes.

This just does not happen.

Name the last time that happened? Where a player went, "The hell with it, I know I've come out publicly and committed to one team but I might just randomly go to the worst team in the league."

Nick Stevens 18 years ago? In fact I can only think of one player that has gone back on the the team that that publicly stated was their preferred destination. That would be Mitch Clark in 2011.

So one example from 10 years ago.

It makes a good Big Footy post though.

Both the destination team and the players original team are motivated to get it done and the pressure does build but not always only in one direction. hawks with O'Meara, Eagles with Kelly and the classic Weller to Gold Coast. The pressure built but it built on the destination team, not the other way around.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Well he certainly aint worth Pick 7 alone. Saad went for that last year!! Cerra is already better than Saad. Im sure we both agree that

Agreed.Mind boggling how Saad went for a top 10 pick.lol

 

[Turbocat]

He's certainly not worth 2 1sts.

There is a big range of R1 ... This year R1 will run to P20. Last year one of the R1's Geelong trade to GWS was P25. Treloar, Shiel ..one of those type trades probably a reasonable template.

 

[Wizard]

This just does not happen.

Name the last time that happened? Where a player went, "The hell with it, I know I've come out publicly and committed to one team but I might just randomly go to the worst team in the league."

Nick Stevens 18 years ago? In fact I can only think of one player that has gone back on the the team that that publicly stated was their preferred destination. That would be Mitch Clark in 2011.

So one example from 10 years ago.

It makes a good Big Footy post though.

Both the destination team and the players original team are motivated to get it done and the pressure does build but not always only in one direction. hawks with O'Meara, Eagles with Kelly and the classic Weller to Gold Coast. The pressure built but it built on the destination team, not the other way around.

It's amazing how people still think the PSD is leverage.

Last year with Jackson Hatley was a very special case, he had one suitor and they held pick 1. It rarely happens that way.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Fair enough, if it's a total lottery then we will take 7,16 and next years first.

We can even send you a few later picks back just to balance the "lottery odds".

Our stike rate with later picks is better than our 1st rnds lol

 

[raffrox]

Prestia was second only to Ablett when posting those numbers at GC, Cerra is far more protected at Freo.

AGree, I am not going to argue on future form, but right now, Prestia was better when traded than Cerra is right now.

Protected? See, you're just making stuff up now.

Cerra was 20 last year and finished 3rd in our B&F so I'm not sure that is evidence of him being anything but a key player that was front and centre of what we did. He's 21 this year and Walters isn't happy because the younger players are getting midfield time. Fyfe has played forward to have the younger guys wear the weight of leading the midfield. It's been a clear strategy to not protect them.

How is Cerra being protected?

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

There is a big range of R1 ... This year R1 will run to P20. Last year one of the R1's Geelong trade to GWS was P25. Treloar, Shiel ..one of those type trades probably a reasonable template.

There's a debate on our Board regarding Tom Green.

Pick 7 & 16 would be about the right price for Green.
Just don't think Cerra is in that same 2 1st category.