List Mgmt. Adelaide Crows 2021 List Management thread

[1990crow]

When was the last time a club traded away pick 1? And what have you seen or read to indicate that Horne-Francis will definitely come home? There’s stacks of SA talent kicking around at other clubs that never return home, are North really going to pass up on what is an all but guaranteed A grade mid just because he’s from a different state?

So you’re assumption is still that Rankine will have another sub-par season, another big IF that makes those trades unrealistic.

He has openly stated how close he is to Francis. I just think it's a big risk for North, the last thing they need is to invest 4 - 6 years into him than he leaves once he hits his peak.

I don't know what Rankine will do next year. He could player 15 games, kick 25 goals and he would still be worth that early second. He could play 5-10 games and kick 10-15 goals. Same story.
It's not assumption, it's realistic that he would have to play most games, kick 30-40 goals to be considered a first round pick worth player.
The crows would be looking at him as someone under their system COULD become that player at his peak, hence the interest. It's risk, reward. And GC don't really have much of a choice if he asks to go home.

So to summarise:
It's north not wanting to let JHF go, not that value that the crows would offer that is your problem with the first trade. No evidence of unrealistic offered.
No comments on Dawson. No evidence of unrealistic offered.
Rankine OOC has a similar season to 2021 and crows offer early second. Highly likely. No evidence of unrealistic offered.

I'll take your opinion and ignore it thanks.

 

[Mego Red]

Yes I know what the rules are thanks Bicks. I'd like to hear your reasons why you think 21 is outrageous. We all know the real reason why it sits at 18 (or 17 really if born in November/December). It's a talent grab - the AFL being too scared of losing talent to other sports. There's not one reason aligned with what's good for the kids for having the age so young, and the sink cost of developing kids not good enough as adults is huge. Kids get spat out of a system at 20-22 that they were 100% invested in for their entire adolescence. I'd much rather be drafting from a senior system pool of developed bodies than a pool of juniors which is basically a crap shoot aside from about 10 players each year.

Go ahead, give me your view.

Well, probably the lawsuit from Jason Horne-Francis' family would be a place to start.

You're costing him 3 years of decent earnings - that could be $500k+ in total.

At 18, they've finished schooling and have the right to join the workforce. There's zero reason to make it 21.

 

[rezagun]

Reid needs to do whatever it takes to get Jason Horne. He will be the next Dangerfield/Martin type player.
Throw North something they cant refuse.

 

[Crow till I die]

Reid needs to do whatever it takes to get Jason Horne. He will be the next Dangerfield/Martin type player.
Throw North something they cant refuse.

Done some nice things today in the final.

Roberts does not stand out as anything special to me on todays game

 

[Soggy2112]

He has openly stated how close he is to Francis. I just think it's a big risk for North, the last thing they need is to invest 4 - 6 years into him than he leaves once he hits his peak.

I don't know what Rankine will do next year. He could player 15 games, kick 25 goals and he would still be worth that early second. He could play 5-10 games and kick 10-15 goals. Same story.
It's not assumption, it's realistic that he would have to play most games, kick 30-40 goals to be considered a first round pick worth player.
The crows would be looking at him as someone under their system COULD become that player at his peak, hence the interest. It's risk, reward. And GC don't really have much of a choice if he asks to go home.

So to summarise:
It's north not wanting to let JHF go, not that value that the crows would offer that is your problem with the first trade. No evidence of unrealistic offered.
No comments on Dawson. No evidence of unrealistic offered.
Rankine OOC has a similar season to 2021 and crows offer early second. Highly likely. No evidence of unrealistic offered.

I'll take your opinion and ignore it thanks.

When was the last time the number one pick was traded? It’s been more or less common knowledge that North will take Horne-Francis for months yet there’s been no reports that they’re looking to trade the pick?

I actually think that Dawson deal could get done, but it relies on a pick we’d have acquired from the North trade which I haven’t heard any reports is likely to happen.

A par season for Rankine if he plays permanent small forward would be 25-30 goals. That would make him an immensely talented no.3 pick heading into his fourth season off the back of two good seasons and one bad one. If that’s how he’s progressing what makes you think Gold Coast would give up anything less than a first rounder?

Not to mention the whole plan relies on picking up a free agent to make it work, which, you haven’t mentioned how it’s realistic.

I said it was a play station move because you’ve put together four different moves that would all need to go together in order to make them work, when realistically we’d be lucky if we could get one out of pick 1, Rankine and an unnamed free agent let alone all three.

 

[Sanders]

The pathway to AFL makes luck play a bigger part than it should. Junior football is run by amateurs, often volunteers, and the goal of junior football is often not to showcase talent. The draft age also contributes, simply because clubs are drafting players who haven't finished growing physically. It should be at least 19, I'd prefer 21.

Talent spotting is old school and often relies on anecdotal evidence. Scouting is amateurish and often based on a kids body of junior work, which you just can't do because physical development plays such a huge role in how a kid plays (and where he plays) at the different age groups.

I have always maintained that the next big step for the sport is in junior development and talent spotting. A club that invests heavily in this area will find many diamonds in the rough under the current system.

not in anyway realistic though. It’s career, a job. No way can you hold people back from earning until 19/21

NFL/NBA have better hit rates but they draft guys who might be as old as 24. And regularly do. I don’t mean recycling either. First round, first time talent

MLB has a huge flame out rate. That’s just a function of age for them, closer to ours

it’s not a problem that can be solved. And it won’t be

 

[Sanders]

Yes I know what the rules are thanks Bicks. I'd like to hear your reasons why you think 21 is outrageous. We all know the real reason why it sits at 18 (or 17 really if born in November/December). It's a talent grab - the AFL being too scared of losing talent to other sports. There's not one reason aligned with what's good for the kids for having the age so young, and the sink cost of developing kids not good enough as adults is huge. Kids get spat out of a system at 20-22 that they were 100% invested in for their entire adolescence. I'd much rather be drafting from a senior system pool of developed bodies than a pool of juniors which is basically a crap shoot aside from about 10 players each year.

Go ahead, give me your view.

players Union 100%
other reasons 0%

 

[1990crow]

When was the last time the number one pick was traded? It’s been more or less common knowledge that North will take Horne-Francis for months yet there’s been no reports that they’re looking to trade the pick?

I actually think that Dawson deal could get done, but it relies on a pick we’d have acquired from the North trade which I haven’t heard any reports is likely to happen.

A par season for Rankine if he plays permanent small forward would be 25-30 goals. That would make him an immensely talented no.3 pick heading into his fourth season off the back of two good seasons and one bad one. If that’s how he’s progressing what makes you think Gold Coast would give up anything less than a first rounder?

Not to mention the whole plan relies on picking up a free agent to make it work, which, you haven’t mentioned how it’s realistic.

I said it was a play station move because you’ve put together four different moves that would all need to go together in order to make them work, when realistically we’d be lucky if we could get one out of pick 1, Rankine and an unnamed free agent let alone all three.

Only two would need to work together (Pick 1 and Dawson).
Who knows whether North would open to it, you have to ask given there is that risk he wants home in his prime.

Gold Coast will have no choice end of next season, as all clubs don't when a player is OOC.

Maynard is a FA next season.

 

[Sanders]

Only two would need to work together (Pick 1 and Dawson).
Who knows whether North would open to it, you have to ask given there is that risk he wants home in his prime.

Gold Coast will have no choice end of next season, as all clubs don't when a player is OOC.

Maynard is a FA next season.

stop it

zero chance he wants to leave in his prime?

 

[Soggy2112]

Only two would need to work together (Pick 1 and Dawson).
Who knows whether North would open to it, you have to ask given there is that risk he wants home in his prime.

Gold Coast will have no choice end of next season, as all clubs don't when a player is OOC.

Maynard is a FA next season.

Sorry when I said to make them work I meant as in for it to be a viable list strategy.

If we traded out next years first round we’d need to get someone like Rankine in to make it work long term otherwise I don’t think we’ll have enough top end talent.

I still think the no.1 pick trade is unrealistic because if North were open to trading it it’s highly unlikely that wouldn’t have come out by now.

What do you mean clubs will have no choice? If that were true how did we get two first rounders for Lever? The PSD move is usually only viable when the contract is so large, e.g. Tippet, Martin, that no one else will go near it. That will not be the case (at least I hope so).

And is Maynard a RFA or UFA, because if he’s RFA then will have to trade for him and further diminish our draft hand at a time where we’ll still be building a side.

 

[Dirty Bird]

The more you analyse how premiership teams are put together the more you realise that recruiting departments get nowhere near enough scrutiny.

I just had a look then and compiled how the last 10 premiership clubs compiled their team.

From most common source to least common

1. Trade (41)
=2. Picks 11-20 (30)
=2. Picks 40+ (30)
=4. Picks 1-10 (29)
=4. Rookie Draft (29)
6. Picks 31-40 (24)
7. Picks 21-30 (18)
8. Pre-Season Draft (8)
9. Father-Son (5)
10. Free Agency (4)
11. Mid-Season Draft (2)

 

[Sanders]

I just had a look then and compiled how the last 10 premiership clubs compiled their team.

From most common source to least common

1. Trade (41)
=2. Picks 11-20 (30)
=2. Picks 40+ (30)
=4. Picks 1-10 (29)
=4. Rookie Draft (29)
6. Picks 31-40 (24)
7. Picks 21-30 (18)
8. Pre-Season Draft (8)
9. Father-Son (5)
10. Free Agency (4)
11. Mid-Season Draft (2)

think we’ll need to see a little more of the workings from you DB?

 

[Dirty Bird]

Only two would need to work together (Pick 1 and Dawson).
Who knows whether North would open to it, you have to ask given there is that risk he wants home in his prime.

Gold Coast will have no choice end of next season, as all clubs don't when a player is OOC.

Maynard is a FA next season.

Horne-Francis wont leave in his prime

If he comes back to Adelaide it's either early on. (Homesick and/or we offer overs before he blossoms) or at the end (similar to Gibbs)

Once he's in his prime, he's been there long enough that the lure of homesickness wont be an issue, so it comes down to money, non-football deals like media, and sponsorship is much bigger in Melbourne. You cant compete against those advantages.

The only way we could even contemplate getting him in his "prime years" is if he's a Tambling like bust and we just want to see if we can make something of him.

 

[Dirty Bird]

think we’ll need to see a little more of the workings from you DB?

Draft Pick 1-10

Draft Pick 11-20

Draft Pick 21-30

Draft Pick 31-40

Draft Pick 40+

Father-Son

Pre-season Draft

Rookie Draft

Mid-season Draft

Trade

Free Agency

2020 Richmond​

3​

2​

3​

2​

2​

2​

4​

1​

2​

1​

22​

2019 Richmond​

3​

3​

2​

1​

1​

2​

5​

1​

3​

1​

22​

2018 West Coast​

1​

5​

4​

2​

5​

1​

4​

22​

2017 Richmond​

3​

4​

1​

2​

3​

2​

2​

5​

22​

2016 Western Bulldogs​

3​

1​

2​

2​

3​

3​

1​

5​

2​

22​

2015 Hawthorn​

3​

4​

3​

3​

2​

6​

1​

22​

2014 Hawthorn​

3​

3​

3​

3​

3​

7​

22​

2013 Hawthorn​

4​

4​

3​

2​

1​

2​

5​

1​

22​

2012 Sydney​

2​

1​

2​

2​

5​

4​

6​

22​

2011 Geelong​

4​

3​

4​

4​

3​

2​

1​

1​

22​

29​

30​

18​

24​

30​

5​

8​

29​

2​

41​

4​

 

[Sanders]

Draft Pick 1-10

Draft Pick 11-20

Draft Pick 21-30

Draft Pick 31-40

Draft Pick 40+

Father-Son

Pre-season Draft

Rookie Draft

Mid-season Draft

Trade

Free Agency

2020 Richmond​

3​

2​

3​

2​

2​

2​

4​

1​

2​

1​

22​

2019 Richmond​

3​

3​

2​

1​

1​

2​

5​

1​

3​

1​

22​

2018 West Coast​

1​

5​

4​

2​

5​

1​

4​

22​

2017 Richmond​

3​

4​

1​

2​

3​

2​

2​

5​

22​

2016 Western Bulldogs​

3​

1​

2​

2​

3​

3​

1​

5​

2​

22​

2015 Hawthorn​

3​

4​

3​

3​

2​

6​

1​

22​

2014 Hawthorn​

3​

3​

3​

3​

3​

7​

22​

2013 Hawthorn​

4​

4​

3​

2​

1​

2​

5​

1​

22​

2012 Sydney​

2​

1​

2​

2​

5​

4​

6​

22​

2011 Geelong​

4​

3​

4​

4​

3​

2​

1​

1​

22​

29​

30​

18​

24​

30​

5​

8​

29​

2​

41​

4​

Mate,

that’s just numbers

could be quite interesting, but would need to be able to see details

 

[Golumless]

not in anyway realistic though. It’s career, a job. No way can you hold people back from earning until 19/21

NFL/NBA have better hit rates but they draft guys who might be as old as 24. And regularly do. I don’t mean recycling either. First round, first time talent

MLB has a huge flame out rate. That’s just a function of age for them, closer to ours

it’s not a problem that can be solved. And it won’t be

Also how convoluted their system is, in that even a top prospect that went through the college system is likely spending 2-3 years in the minors before getting a call up. Plenty of time for things to go wrong.

Especially at a shitshow like Colorado.

 

[1970crow]

Yes I know what the rules are thanks Bicks. I'd like to hear your reasons why you think 21 is outrageous. We all know the real reason why it sits at 18 (or 17 really if born in November/December). It's a talent grab - the AFL being too scared of losing talent to other sports. There's not one reason aligned with what's good for the kids for having the age so young, and the sink cost of developing kids not good enough as adults is huge. Kids get spat out of a system at 20-22 that they were 100% invested in for their entire adolescence. I'd much rather be drafting from a senior system pool of developed bodies than a pool of juniors which is basically a crap shoot aside from about 10 players each year.

Go ahead, give me your view.

Why does it matter at all? The art and science is about taking into account all factors, whether they're drafted at 18 or 21, the only variance is physical development. Why delay players hitting the pro system to make drafting a tad easier? It makes no sense at all.

 

[Sanders]

Why does it matter at all? The art and science is about taking into account all factors, whether they're drafted at 18 or 21, the only variance is physical development. Why delay players hitting the pro system to make drafting a tad easier? It makes no sense at all.

mental and emotional development is more important and much harder to project too

 

[David C]

Which bit is unrealistic

All of it

 

[Dirty Bird]

Stick to 18.

NBA - 1 year removed from High school
NHL - 18-19 year olds
MLB - Straight from high school, or if you went to college, completed at least 3 years of college baseball, or are 21 years old
NFL - 3 years removed from High school

But you know the MASSIVE difference between us and them.
They have a setup for sports in this age group which goes back 100+ years
We dont

The only way I believe it could work by upping the draft age would be if the state leagues became big enough to pay these kids enough to get through 3 years of life pre-AFL. Otherwise we'd lose these kids to other sports. Be it Soccer, Rugby('s), Cricket etc.

Yes, it is safer for the clubs if they have more of a known quantity on their hands.
But it's also worse for the game imo as we'd lose players elsewhere as they dont want to waste 3 years playing against kids who aren't as good as them, and having to deal with tags every week.

 

[GreyCrow]

Draft Pick 1-10

Draft Pick 11-20

Draft Pick 21-30

Draft Pick 31-40

Draft Pick 40+

Father-Son

Pre-season Draft

Rookie Draft

Mid-season Draft

Trade

Free Agency

2020 Richmond​

3​

2​

3​

2​

2​

2​

4​

1​

2​

1​

22​

2019 Richmond​

3​

3​

2​

1​

1​

2​

5​

1​

3​

1​

22​

2018 West Coast​

1​

5​

4​

2​

5​

1​

4​

22​

2017 Richmond​

3​

4​

1​

2​

3​

2​

2​

5​

22​

2016 Western Bulldogs​

3​

1​

2​

2​

3​

3​

1​

5​

2​

22​

2015 Hawthorn​

3​

4​

3​

3​

2​

6​

1​

22​

2014 Hawthorn​

3​

3​

3​

3​

3​

7​

22​

2013 Hawthorn​

4​

4​

3​

2​

1​

2​

5​

1​

22​

2012 Sydney​

2​

1​

2​

2​

5​

4​

6​

22​

2011 Geelong​

4​

3​

4​

4​

3​

2​

1​

1​

22​

29​

30​

18​

24​

30​

5​

8​

29​

2​

41​

4​

I love the work put in and did something similar a few months ago - how many are repeats ie Richmonds #3 are the same 3 for all 3 flags - I expect Hawks to be similar

 

[Dirty Bird]

I love the work put in and did something similar a few months ago - how many are repeats ie Richmonds #3 are the same 3 for all 3 flags - I expect Hawks to be similar

This is correct, All 3 top 10 picks were Cotchin, Martin and Vlastuin, just like Hawthorn was Hodge, Lewis and Roughead (+Franklin for 1 year)

 

[Soggy2112]

If players had to wait till they were 21 to get into the AFL system would they become as good as if they spent those formative years at an elite level football club?

 

[Caputo]

Ps - Won't Horne-Francis want what the Power are cooking

 

[anonymous Derik]

If Dawson does indeed choose the AFC what are our thoughts on a trade? Considering pick#4 is just outside the top tier group in the draft (according to some) I’d almost rather go pick 4 & 37 for Dawson, 12 & 31 and take 12,23 & 31 to the draft or are we better off keeping 4 and losing 23 & 37? Which will mean after 4 we aren’t picking again until the 60’s.