AFL 2014 ROUND 4

[GROTTO]

The latest analysis from AFLpredictions is up! We continued our stellar year in round 3, betting on the Hawks, Bulldogs and Kangas (and Adelaide...). We also piled up on line bets on the Saints, Kangas, Dogs and Hawks (among a few smaller line bets). This week, there's some value in the following games:

Richmond at $2.440 (Bet 16.0% of pot)
Gold Coast at $4.380 (Bet 9.0% of pot)
St Kilda at $2.260 (Bet 25.0% of pot)
Fremantle at $1.800 (Bet 30.0% of pot)

Odds taken from Pinnacle. Lines not posted yet.

Check out http://AFLpredictions.wordpress.com for more details and a few other stats of interest.

Im not too surprised with your selections given your strong weighting to home teams, your Freo bet is interesting given the players out for Freo with that said did I read that Chapman and Fletcher may not play which would be big outs for them considering their form in the first three rounds.

Im biased with being a Crows supporter (I can swing both ways lol ) I can overestimate or underestimate them at times.

I am surprised with a few punters in here siding with the Crows, I would be interested in your thoughts and others as to why or why not!?

 

[GROTTO]

Am I crazy thinking Brisbane are value @ $6.25? They have a good record against Port and and only lost to them by 9 points at aami late last year. Will take the +37.5 for sure.

I remember this game well as I had backed Port to win it and they really missed some easy set shots at goal, which flattered the losing margin for the Lions, Power kicked 9.17 to 9.8 The conditions at AAMI that day were fine and sunny too, so I would have loved to have said that weather played a part as well.

I saw first hand the way Port dismantled the Crows at AO, it was scary. I know it was only one game but I think they will do really well playing there. The dimensions of AO are smaller than AAMI, if I am correct I think the ground is smaller both length wise and width wise.

 

[Charlsy19]

Thoughts on this 4 Leg Multi,

Geelong -22.5
Essendon +4.5
Collingwood -7.5
Port -20.5

Paying $9.83

 

[Willzzz]

I would be wary of taking Collingwood this week.
I do like Richmond's chances and will most likely be having a small play on them.
Can see the bookies making a killing with the public loading up on the Pies.

Still waiting for a couple of things before taking the Tigers though, must see Deledio included and also possibly Foley (I actually rate him). And seriously Hardwick, please if you are going to play Foley, don't play him as a sub.
Give him some confidence, let him play a hard in and under midfielder. You're short in that area.

Also need to see Chaplin in the team too, dunno who suggested Astbury might have to play on Cloke. Now that would turn me off taking the Tigers.

 

[robertbn]

Im not too surprised with your selections given your strong weighting to home teams, your Freo bet is interesting given the players out for Freo with that said did I read that Chapman and Fletcher may not play which would be big outs for them considering their form in the first three rounds.

Im biased with being a Crows supporter (I can swing both ways lol ) I can overestimate or underestimate them at times.

I am surprised with a few punters in here siding with the Crows, I would be interested in your thoughts and others as to why or why not!?

I suppose Adelaide have had a tough first three rounds (Geelong, Port and Sydney), and winning any of them would have been a solid effort. The Saints, however, are 2-1 but have only beaten Melbourne and GWS. And Adelaide really need to beat teams like the Saints if want to play finals.

You're right that the home ground advantage is basically the difference for this game (notice Adelaide and St Kilda have similar ratings, but there's an 11 point home ground advantage to the Saints). I've only got the Saints as a 58% chance, but worth it at $2.25.

In terms of Freo, my model doesn't take into account personnel, so there's a possibility that it overestimates their chances. However, they got a pretty serious correction to their rating on Friday night (down 3.6 points), which has gone part of the way to adjusting for Fyfe and Barlow's absence.

 

[Willzzz]

Richmond at $2.440 (Bet 16.0% of pot)
Gold Coast at $4.380 (Bet 9.0% of pot)
St Kilda at $2.260 (Bet 25.0% of pot)
Fremantle at $1.800 (Bet 30.0% of pot)

Interesting picks. Have been following you for a little while, not quite tailing yet.
I do like posters who prefer taking the 'dogs as opposed to other punters who think betting is easy and just take the better team minus points 80% of the time.

Richmond I agree as posted above.
Gold Coast, I agree but I think the 3/4 QTR Line is the way to go, hopefully it will move out to about 20 points, will probably take that later in the week.
St Kilda, I disagree. Think Adelaide are the better side and will come out this round and smash the Saints. The Saints have exceeded all expectations thus far but I don't like them at all this weekend.
Fremantle is an interesting one. I've already taken 3U on the Bombers, pretty much as soon as I realised Fyfe is still missing. I don't think Fremantle will win but it wouldn't surprise me if they did. If they were $2.50 I would consider taking, but not $1.80.

I see your model likes home teams, a lot.

My smoky for the round also incidentally no one else has mentioned, is North Melbourne.
Also, I think I was the only one who said NM were a good chance last week (ask Grotto), when everyone else was pounding Port Adelaide.

Possible Upsets: Essendon*, Richmond, North Melbourne (in that order)

*Will probably start about evens.

 

[robertbn]

Interesting picks. Have been following you for a little while, not quite tailing yet.
I do like posters who prefer taking the 'dogs as opposed to other punters who think betting is easy and just take the better team minus points 80% of the time.

Richmond I agree as posted above.
Gold Coast, I agree but I think the 3/4 QTR Line is the way to go, hopefully it will move out to about 20 points, will probably take that later in the week.
St Kilda, I disagree. Think Adelaide are the better side and will come out this round and smash the Saints. The Saints have exceeded all expectations thus far but I don't like them at all this weekend.
Fremantle is an interesting one. I've already taken 3U on the Bombers, pretty much as soon as I realised Fyfe is still missing. I don't think Fremantle will win but it wouldn't surprise me if they did. If they were $2.50 I would consider taking, but not $1.80.

I see your model likes home teams, a lot.

My smoky for the round also incidentally no one else has mentioned, is North Melbourne.
Also, I think I was the only one who said NM were a good chance last week (ask Grotto), when everyone else was pounding Port Adelaide.

Possible Upsets: Essendon*, Richmond, North Melbourne (in that order)

*Will probably start about evens.

Agree with pretty much everything you say! I would have a bet on North if I bet on away teams... (although historically, make no money from them!). And would prefer to take Gold Coast at the line if it's around 25 points than H2H.

I think you're right in regards to Essendon and Adelaide. If everything was equal, I would back them both in. But if there's one thing the model values that most punters don't, it's the home ground advantage, which is the important factor in both games.

p.s. nice work backing North in last week - I did the same! Another example of the home team finding a way to win.

 

[Jammer]

Really like your thinking on the GC.HAWKS 3/4 line Willzzz.
I think the spot to oppose the Hawks at the line is when they have been super impressive the week before.
Visiting teams noticeably seems to struggle in the slippery humid night matches up there.
I believe this game is a big chance of being "alive" at 3/4 time
If they get out to close to $5 on Betfair I may have half a unit on them.

North I just don't trust anywhere outside of Victoria v a top 8 team.

 

[X_box_X]

Judging by the lack of comments, it appears GWS V Bulldogs is a no bet game as far as head to head is concerned.

I can understand that, given both teams have shown inconsistent patches of both good and bad form in the early rounds.

The neutral venue doesn't favour any team more than the other, but I do think a small advantage the Bulldogs will have is an extra day's break and GWS playing in heavy conditions may make them more leg weary.

Dogs appeared value at $1.80, but now into $1.69 so probably not much value there.

 

[Willzzz]

Agree with pretty much everything you say! I would have a bet on North if I bet on away teams... (although historically, make no money from them!). And would prefer to take Gold Coast at the line if it's around 25 points than H2H.

I think you're right in regards to Essendon and Adelaide. If everything was equal, I would back them both in. But if there's one thing the model values that most punters don't, it's the home ground advantage, which is the important factor in both games.

p.s. nice work backing North in last week - I did the same! Another example of the home team finding a way to win.

Oh yeah that's right. I remember reading your page last year and you made the observation that you have made so much more money betting on home teams vs. away teams (I think you were down overall when taking away teams) and you said you would stop taking away teams.

True, home ground advantage is important. It is no doubt factored into the H2H odds/Lines by oddsmakers but I remember reading that the advantage was always under-estimated by a little bit (most likely done on purpose).

Wish I did back North - They drifted out to $2.12 from memory and I was hoping for an extra few cents, but didn't happen with Sportingbet.
Grotto asked me my thoughts on the game, after reading the post on the forum and I told him to be careful. Think I saved him from going too big.
That was the only game I didn't bet on in the end, even with the 18 points refund promo. Went 7 - 1 H2H and the loss was Carlton by plenty so the promo was no good to me

 

[X_box_X]

I noticed on Sportingbet you can bet if the final total is an odd or an even number paying $1.95, Im not sure what shocked me more the fact that you can bet on this or that the book is making clearly money on this event.

Every now and then Betstar offers $2 on the winner of the coin toss. Not that I have ever bet on that, but if anyone decided to, at least you would know you aren't getting ripped off. It would be the quickest outcome of a bet I would have ever experienced if I decided to bet on it too, and I placed a bet on a Bolt/Blake 100m exacta in London, which took fewer than 9.8 seconds.

 

[Willzzz]

Really like your thinking on the GC.HAWKS 3/4 line Willzzz.
I think the spot to oppose the Hawks at the line is when they have been super impressive the week before.
Visiting teams noticeably seems to struggle in the slippery humid night matches up there.
I believe this game is a big chance of being "alive" at 3/4 time
If they get out to close to $5 on Betfair I may have half a unit on them.

North I just don't trust anywhere outside of Victoria v a top 8 team.

Hmm, I don't generally take 1/4, 1/2 or 3/4 lines just cause it's too much of a gamble IMO.
However, in this game I think if the Suns aren't within 20 at 3/4, they won't cover the 26.5 or so line.
$5 would be nice but I don't think I will take them even if they drift out that far. I think the 3/4 H2H Leader @ $3.50-odd would be a better play.

I've seen the Swans play and they look very slow this year. That may well be due to their pre-season training load with an aim to peak at the finals in which case they would come out any weekend and really run. However, I think they are just lacking the speed in their midfield, Kennedy isn't fast, Jack/Hannebery are more the Stanton-type long distance gun runners as opposed to the quick burst of speed.

North is an interesting team. I actually agreed with most of what the poster said last week (Even though he was on PORT), with regards to Scott wanting to slow down the game and the players not really knowing what to do. I think you will see NM play a fast tempo run and gun game this week.

 

[Willzzz]

Judging by the lack of comments, it appears GWS V Bulldogs is a no bet game as far as head to head is concerned.

I can understand that, given both teams have shown inconsistent patches of both good and bad form in the early rounds.

The neutral venue doesn't favour any team more than the other, but I do think a small advantage the Bulldogs will have is an extra day's break and GWS playing in heavy conditions may make them more leg weary.

Dogs appeared value at $1.80, but now into $1.69 so probably not much value there.

Yep, agree. Think the Under is the play here though. No idea why it's still 180-odd.

 

[Anzac16]

Yep, agree. Think the Under is the play here though. No idea why it's still 180-odd.

Can you give your reasoning for this mate? I agree that it is too high but GWS have averaged 88 points per game this year whilst the WB managed 100 last week when they hit some great form. I think most of us agree that this should be a WB victory but GWS should run pretty well with them over the course of the match. You saw what Jack Riewoldt was able to do in the second half against the WB defense, with Cameron and Patton up forward they should do some damage.

Definitely considering tailing the bet, just wanted your thoughts

 

[robertbn]

Oh yeah that's right. I remember reading your page last year and you made the observation that you have made so much more money betting on home teams vs. away teams (I think you were down overall when taking away teams) and you said you would stop taking away teams.

True, home ground advantage is important. It is no doubt factored into the H2H odds/Lines by oddsmakers but I remember reading that the advantage was always under-estimated by a little bit (most likely done on purpose).

Wish I did back North - They drifted out to $2.12 from memory and I was hoping for an extra few cents, but didn't happen with Sportingbet.
Grotto asked me my thoughts on the game, after reading the post on the forum and I told him to be careful. Think I saved him from going too big.
That was the only game I didn't bet on in the end, even with the 18 points refund promo. Went 7 - 1 H2H and the loss was Carlton by plenty so the promo was no good to me

Yep - I never make money on away teams. Here's this year's profit graph (betting on away teams is the red line):

Which is pretty much what you see in the long term, as well.

 

[Keystone agony]

Really think Essendon will win and win pretty easily IMO.

Impressed by the saints last few weeks also put in a good last NAB performance against the power, however Adelaide have won both I50s and CC against Port and Sydney in the last 2 weeks and aginst a weakr defense i think i like them.

Think the dogs are good things against GWS aswell. Morris defending very well should take out Cameron. Minson should really make the ruck a 50/50 margin with Mumford.

I think the dogs still have a good side they might struggle to kick a score compared to GWS though thats the only problem.

Im surprised how high the odds are for the Roos. The swans havnt looked that great at all beaten in the clearances and inside 50's against the crows if tht happens i expect north to be areal chance. I just see ST doing a good job on Buddy and them struggling to score. I think maybe a within 15 points in a low scoring game might be the way to go. Remember though Sydney havnt played at SCG yet this year.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Judging by the lack of comments, it appears GWS V Bulldogs is a no bet game as far as head to head is concerned.

I can understand that, given both teams have shown inconsistent patches of both good and bad form in the early rounds.

The neutral venue doesn't favour any team more than the other, but I do think a small advantage the Bulldogs will have is an extra day's break and GWS playing in heavy conditions may make them more leg weary.

Dogs appeared value at $1.80, but now into $1.69 so probably not much value there.

I'd be more inclined to wait for a more reliable weather forecast and the total points for that game. I would think if it rains GWS will be value, but I haven't seen the Doggies in the wet much (being an Etihad team) so would appreciate any advice there. At the moment the line is 182.5, but it's forecast to be fine...

Collingwood/Richmond is a huge no bet game for me. Won money on Freo/Geelong v Collingwood, lost money on all 3 of Richmonds games and Pies/Swans. Just can't pick either team. A line of 7.5 is of no value to me.

Will probably be taking Sydney though, North winning away against a good team is a hill they are yet to get over. Swans will enjoy being back at SCG. H2H @ $1.38 in a multi and -18.5 @ $1.92 are my thoughts here.

And will be expecting Port to bounce back against the Lions 40+ @ $1.94, while I reckon Geelong may take a hold of the Eagles who will be very undermanned (Shuey, Waters, Hurn, Wellingham, Masten, LeCras if IIRC) will be primed for a Saturday night at SS and at $2.90 is worth it. Johnson to bounce back.

 

[banana_bus]

I would be wary of taking Collingwood this week.
I do like Richmond's chances and will most likely be having a small play on them.
Can see the bookies making a killing with the public loading up on the Pies.

Still waiting for a couple of things before taking the Tigers though, must see Deledio included and also possibly Foley (I actually rate him). And seriously Hardwick, please if you are going to play Foley, don't play him as a sub.
Give him some confidence, let him play a hard in and under midfielder. You're short in that area.

Also need to see Chaplin in the team too, dunno who suggested Astbury might have to play on Cloke. Now that would turn me off taking the Tigers.

Astbury will be playing on Cloke regardless. Rance would be the one who normally would but he's out.

 

[Aed0s]

Astbury will be playing on Cloke regardless. Rance would be the one who normally would but he's out.

so Richmond have the following issues:
- Rance (2-3 weeks)
- A. Edwards (1 week) - knee
- Hampson (test) - knee
- Deledio (test) - ankle
- Vlastuin (test) - concussion from weekend

Not sure if they're going to risk any of them, the latter three coming into Friday, but there's a possibility of a few of them returning.

I feel as if Cloke will be very hungry to kick a bag this week after disappointing performances in the first three rounds, and Astbury is the perfect opposition for someone like Cloke who has been very goal deprived!

If Collingwood can exploit this mismatch and use it to their advantage then the line of (-7) can very easily be broken IMHO, this is just in reference to their forward structure though.

I'm still confident CW will win H2H and at the line. My first bets for the year!!! Was watching closely last few rounds and hope I can use my knowledge to good fortune!

1U - Collingwood H2H @ 1.63
1U - Collingwood (-7.5) @ 1.92

 

[banana_bus]

My smoky for the round also incidentally no one else has mentioned, is North Melbourne.
Also, I think I was the only one who said NM were a good chance last week (ask Grotto), when everyone else was pounding Port Adelaide.

Hehe I said Port were overrated and got hammered ;-)

North can't win outside of Etihad though.

 

[banana_bus]

so Richmond have the following issues:
- Rance (2-3 weeks)
- A. Edwards (1 week) - knee
- Hampson (test) - knee
- Deledio (test) - ankle
- Vlastuin (test) - concussion from weekend

Not sure if they're going to risk any of them, the latter three coming into Friday, but there's a possibility of a few of them returning.

I feel as if Cloke will be very hungry to kick a bag this week after disappointing performances in the first three rounds, and Astbury is the perfect opposition for someone like Cloke who has been very goal deprived!

If Collingwood can exploit this mismatch and use it to their advantage then the line of (-7) can very easily be broken IMHO, this is just in reference to their forward structure though.

I'm still confident CW will win H2H and at the line. My first bets for the year!!! Was watching closely last few rounds and hope I can use my knowledge to good fortune!

1U - Collingwood H2H @ 1.63
1U - Collingwood (-7.5) @ 1.92

The beauty about going against Collingwood is that everyone in Australia follows them, so you know you're always getting overs for the opposition team.

Game is well and truly a 50/50 on their day the Tigers can smash anyone as can the Pies.

History says Collingwood wins though.

 

[Aed0s]

The beauty about going against Collingwood is that everyone in Australia follows them, so you know you're always getting overs for the opposition team.

Game is well and truly a 50/50 on their day the Tigers can smash anyone as can the Pies.

History says Collingwood wins though.

I think Collingwood are unders at this price, especially the line bet.

I'm no experienced better but I'm just basing my ideas around the first three games, injuries, match-ups, past games (we tend to play really good against them). It's not because I go for Collingwood or anything.

I'm sure they are very good when they are playing their best, I just don't think this round will be the day that they do, given their sluggish recent performances, especially against WB if it wasn't for Cotchin in the midfield and his clearances (hopefully Macaffer will tag and nullify him) then they would've been goners in the 2nd half.

 

[Willzzz]

1.5U – SC Treloar Under 120.5 Points @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

Taken just then.

 

[Willzzz]

Tigers thrive on being the underdog and playing a big team on a big stage.

Has happened numerous times in the past 2-3 years.

Don't ask me how they seem to do it with pretty much only a couple of gun midfielder and one true forward.

 

[banana_bus]

1.5U – SC Treloar Under 120.5 Points @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

Taken just then.

Interesting line, dont blame you on taking the unders!

Absolute jet and will be a DT/SC pig in the next few years but still young.