AFL 2014 ROUND 4

[Stretcher Boy]

Yeah fair enough. I am including Essendon in my mutli this week too. It's a bit of a risk but they are value at that price. I'll be going with adelaide as one of the other legs... as you said, different opinions, etc... good luck

Thanks, good luck to you as well. I could even take out one of the st kilda or essendon legs and still look at around a $12 or $8 payout respectively

 

[Willzzz]

Can you give your reasoning for this mate? I agree that it is too high but GWS have averaged 88 points per game this year whilst the WB managed 100 last week when they hit some great form. I think most of us agree that this should be a WB victory but GWS should run pretty well with them over the course of the match. You saw what Jack Riewoldt was able to do in the second half against the WB defense, with Cameron and Patton up forward they should do some damage.

Definitely considering tailing the bet, just wanted your thoughts

Alright, whilst I agree that GWS have power forwards in Cameron/Patton/Giles who can kick a score, I doubt they will get enough supply to do so this weekend. The only times GWS have kicked big scores have been won they have dominated games.

Personally, I think this game will be close throughout and I doubt both teams will be able to score the 85-90 points needed for the over to hit.

Past games between GWS and opponents at SPO have all been low scoring. The last time these two teams played the doggies won 87 - 83, and the game before that 104 - 62.

I think both coaches will go into this game expecting a low-scoring contested game and thus place a greater emphasis on team defence. Wouldn't be surprised to see both teams have a +1 back, WB cause they are under-sized there and GWS cause they are still missing Davis and I'm not sure if they can contain the Doggies small forwards.

 

[Anzac16]

Alright, whilst I agree that GWS have power forwards in Cameron/Patton/Giles who can kick a score, I doubt they will get enough supply to do so this weekend. The only times GWS have kicked big scores have been won they have dominated games.

Personally, I think this game will be close throughout and I doubt both teams will be able to score the 85-90 points needed for the over to hit.

Past games between GWS and opponents at SPO have all been low scoring. The last time these two teams played the doggies won 87 - 83, and the game before that 104 - 62.

I think both coaches will go into this game expecting a low-scoring contested game and thus place a greater emphasis on team defence. Wouldn't be surprised to see both teams have a +1 back, WB cause they are under-sized there and GWS cause they are still missing Davis and I'm not sure if they can contain the Doggies small forwards.

Good reasoning. The last point you make is a very good one. Line is down to 178.5 now, tempting still.

Luxbet have got their Six Pack Special on again this Friday night with Riewoldt, Cotchin, Martin, Beams, Pendlebury, Swan the players. Not as generous as it was last Friday but still could be worth it.

 

[Willzzz]

Good reasoning. The last point you make is a very good one. Line is down to 178.5 now, tempting still.

Luxbet have got their Six Pack Special on again this Friday night with Riewoldt, Cotchin, Martin, Beams, Pendlebury, Swan the players. Not as generous as it was last Friday but still could be worth it.

Yeh, don't think the Luxbet 6 pack special for the AFL is that good this week tbh.
I might still take it, maybe just, but if Collingwood kicks the first game, the special is just about gone.
Really only Riewoldt, Cotchin & Martin are a fair chance IMO.

 

[Anzac16]

Yeh, don't think the Luxbet 6 pack special for the AFL is that good this week tbh.
I might still take it, maybe just, but if Collingwood kicks the first game, the special is just about gone.
Really only Riewoldt, Cotchin & Martin are a fair chance IMO.

Swan might be as well. Been playing forward a fair bit this year. I'd say it more than likely be one of Collingwood's small forward's that slots it home. Or Cloke on Astbury.

 

[banana_bus]

Would have loved Cloke (instead of Pendles) in that 6-pack... almost as good as last week, will take it again this week for teh lols

 

[Rollin Dice]

Would have loved Cloke (instead of Pendles) in that 6-pack... almost as good as last week, will take it again this week for teh lols

Pendles kicked the 1st goal in round 1 or 2.

 

[Cotchin 9]

Norf over 5.5 goals at HT @2.05.

 

[free at last]

Bombers into $2 now.
Going to be a last man standing game.

Hot weather expected forecasted to be 33 degrees.

 

[Willzzz]

Would have loved Cloke (instead of Pendles) in that 6-pack... almost as good as last week, will take it again this week for teh lols

I would rather Cloke, Elliott & White with Pendles 4th. Don't like Swan this week, I think Buckley will play him almost exclusively in the midfield.

Doesn't matter though, we wouldn't be getting odds of $6 if they let us choose 6.

 

[jefffff34]

Sportsbet most goals for the round (in the group of 18)
1u Franklin @ $5.00
1u Betts @ $21.00

Sportsbet highest dream team for the round (in the group of 16)
1u Pendlebury @ $12.00
1u Watson @ $17.00

 

[Keystone agony]

Essendon vs Freo

The only reason Essendon might not get over the line is the extra 2 day break Fremantle have over them. 6 day break for the dons, unlikely to travel with oldies Fletch and Chapman and playing in 33 degrees heat during the day.

Collingwood vs Richmond

As much as Richmond have some big names struggling to get up or out for this game (Rance, Maric, Deledio, Vlastuin) collingwood have many that arent right aswell in Swan, Pendles, beams and N.Brown with a shoulder. They are fairly even.

I do question if Richmond have enough class to win this game if Deledio doesnt play. Macaffer is in tagging form and should take Cotchin out of the equation. While i think the pies matchup pretty well on the tigers defense with Frost to JROO and Keefe to take either Vickery or Griffiths as tall forwards.

I see both Collingwood and bombers winning. Wouldve been nice to get on the 2.55 on offer for dons hard to take the 2.00 now and Collingwood are unders. They have also beaten are good Sydney side away after a slow start and taken it right up to an undefeated Geelong.

Adelaide vs Stkilda

Can Adelaide kick a score they have won clearances and I50 the past 2 weeks against Sydney and Port (both top 6 teams in my eyes) yet been smashed on the scoreboard. No doubt both teams especially Sydney have a solid defense and Stkilda cant really relate. They are lacking options and weapons in attack.

 

[iluvparis]

Essendon vs Freo

The only reason Essendon might not get over the line is the extra 2 day break Fremantle have over them. 6 day break for the dons, unlikely to travel with oldies Fletch and Chapman and playing in 33 degrees heat during the day.

No chance that Freo are perhaps the better team then?

 

[GROTTO]

It should be noted that the Dons do have a "full" 7 day break.

Damn 33 degrees compared to Melbourne weather is massive.

 

[Lensen]

Six day break thing still gets a run huh

 

[Santoz]

I may be biased but I reckon Essendon over 25+ is free money.

Freo looked absolutely shot last week & we walked on water.

I think you can get around $4.50 for it

 

[GROTTO]

I may be biased but I reckon Essendon over 25+ is free money.

Freo looked absolutely shot last week & we walked on water.

I think you can get around $4.50 for it

I love biased supporters , I am guilty myself as well. So far I have picked the Crows to win 2 of their first 3 games.

 

[iluvparis]

I may be biased but I reckon Essendon over 25+ is free money.

Freo looked absolutely shot last week & we walked on water.

I think you can get around $4.50 for it

You also played against water last week.

 

[banana_bus]

I do question if Richmond have enough class to win this game if Deledio doesnt play.

Deledio was today ruled out.

Macaffer is in tagging form and should take Cotchin out of the equation.

Cotchin gets tagged by the best every week. His work at the clearances will decide whether this one is close or a 10 goal loss.

I may be biased but I reckon Essendon over 25+ is free money.

Freo looked absolutely shot last week & we walked on water.

I think you can get around $4.50 for it

A week is a long time in football.

 

[Spads]

Yep - I never make money on away teams. Here's this year's profit graph (betting on away teams is the red line):

Which is pretty much what you see in the long term, as well.

This stat is very interesting. By my count, over the last 7 years, if you'd bet on every away underdog line during the first 4 rounds of the season, you would be 50-29.

This would suggest that this week my be a good week to include your predicted bet on the Kangaroos. Especially given that Sydney have only won 2 of their last 8 games.

 

[GROTTO]

On AFL 360 they said that Scott has never coached the Roos to a victory over Sydney.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

I have loaded up on the overs for montagna 109.5 supercoach. We have no taggers and our midfield sucks. He will run riot

 

[Atley]

Collingwood h2h is delicious

edit. rain has made me scared

 

[Keystone agony]

No chance that Freo are perhaps the better team then?

No certainly not at the moment.

I will come across as a bias supporter but anyone that reads my post knows exactly the opposite.

 

[Keystone agony]

Deledio was today ruled out.



Cotchin gets tagged by the best every week. His work at the clearances will decide whether this one is close or a 10 goal loss.

Ask Deledio about that last year. I was impressed and surprised with how well Cotch went last week with Wallis on him. Shows he may be back to his best i think Macaffer is slightly a better tagger though right now.