AFL 2015

[Anzac16]

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/af...ey-beat-the-line/story-fnelctok-1227187984697

Nice review of each teams chances of beating the current line provided by Sportsbet. I suspect the line may change depending on NAB Cup form.

I have the Dogs as under 6.5 as well as GWS.

Good read. Interesting to see the opinions of people preseason. If anyone cares, these are my thoughts.

Adelaide Crows (11.5) - Over. Think the Crows have a good draw this year and should be able to name a pretty good team. Tex with another year back from his ACL will help a lot, as will the development of the Crows young guns. Getting over 11.5 wins depends on Phil Walsh's ability as a coach as well as the Crows being able to stand up in those 50/50 games.

Brisbane Lions (9.5) - Under. In my eyes people are overrating the Lions team. Beams, Christensen and Robinson sure up their midfield as one of the best developing midfields in the AFL, but their problem lies in their forwards and defenders. Personally think 10 wins is out of their reach. My estimate is anywhere from 6-8.

Carlton Blues (9.5) - Under. As much as I would love to say otherwise, I see us having another development season. We have the potential there to push towards finals, but don't think it will be this year. See us finishing around 7-9 wins.

Collingwood Magpies (10) - Par. This this pretty much spot on for this Pies team. I don't rate Buckley as a coach and I feel that their team is not at this stage Top 8 material. Around 9-11 wins would be expected. Softer draw this year and winning 11 games last year even with a lot of injuries would suggest Overs, but I'm not buying it.

Essendon Bombers (11.5) - Under. Too inconsistent for my liking, they can match it with the top teams when in form, but the drop off is too big. Losing Ryder hurts them a bit. See them finishing around 9-11 wins.

Fremantle Dockers (14.5) - Par. Around 15 wins seems right for this Fremantle side. All depends on how Pavlich, Sandi and McPharlin go. They should go over this BUT there are too many question marks for my liking.

Geelong Cats (13.5) - Over. Really like the Cats this year. 17 wins last year and they have improved their list yet again. Injury concerns are the main thing so far for them, but think the will end up on 15-17 wins again this year. Such a classy team and the youngsters they are bringing through are top notch.

Gold Coast Suns (11) - Over. Surely this is Gold Coast's year to finally explode. Adding some experience to their team and another year of development plus the return of Ablett means they are bound for finals this year.

GWS Giants (6.5) - Under. So close to being a Par choice for me, but feel they'll end up with 5-6 wins this year. Should get at least 3 or 4 wins off the Melbourne and Saints games, but can't seem them being favourites in any other games.

Hawthorn Hawks (16) - Over. This team is amazing, and keeps somehow getting better. Deservedly favourites for the flag and could pull of a huge season if injuries stay away.

Melbourne Demons (5.5) - Under. Even with Roosy at the helm and Hogan coming in, can't seem beating too many teams this year. Will almost definitely be bottom 4 again, just a question of how many wins.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (13.5) - Par. Pretty much right around their wins for this year. Had a great finals series but still lack consistency. Bring in a couple of injury prone recruits and lose one of their best midfielders in Greenwood. Not sure how they will go.

Port Adelaide Power (15) - Over. My pick for the other Grand Final team this year along with the Hawks. Great young team, well coached and have added in the exact player they needed in Ryder. Should notch up 16-17 wins this year. Going to be very hard to beat at Adelaide Oval again this year.

Richmond Tigers (11.5) - Over. Had an amazing end to last year which got them into the finals. Should be around the 12-14 mark for wins again this year. Need to work on their consistency over the course of 23 rounds, but should be around the finals mix.

St. Kilda Saints (4.5) - Under. One more year at least for this Saints team this year. Can't see them winning too many games at all. Have the potential to beat some other teams if they catch them on their off day, but think they'll add another wooden spoon this year.

Sydney Swans (16) - Over. Very good team who will use the hurt from the Grand Final to throw themselves into every contest this year. Should end up around the Hawks and Port wins for the year.

West Coast Eagles (11.5) - Par. Have showed glimpses at times, but still not sure whether this team can actually make the finals. Should be around 9-12 wins for the year.

Western Bulldogs (6.5) - Par. See them hitting anywhere from 4-8 wins for this year. Just a completely unpredictable team for this year. They have the talent there but will it work this year? Not sure. Would stay away.

 

[GROTTO]

Good read. Interesting to see the opinions of people preseason. If anyone cares, these are my thoughts.

Carlton Blues (9.5) - Under. As much as I would love to say otherwise, I see us having another development season. We have the potential there to push towards finals, but don't think it will be this year. See us finishing around 7-9 wins.

Sorry to say this but I think the Blues are the best bet out of that lot to win less than 10 games (unders) which I am most confident about.They definitely dont have the depth to cover injuries to key players (should they have any) which will only help that cause of them winning less than 10 games. I have them around the 7-9 mark as you and the max of 9 wins is being very generous too.

The rest are around about bang on where I would expect them to be.

Port winning 16 or more games is going to be challenging, their first 5 games are - Freo(A), Swans (H) Roos (A) Hawks (H) Crows (H), although last year they lost 5 games by 8 points or less and ended up with 14 wins so they should improve on that if they are a genuine flag chance in 2015. Trengove is possibly going to miss some early games with a shoulder injury.

Crows with 12 wins is where I have penciled them to be at the end of the season and that is if everything goes perfectly. Biased? Maybe?

 

[iluvparis]

While Big Footy always massively overrates how overrated they think the Blues are - I agree they look a good bet at the unders.

Best overs bet to me looks to be Geelong - that seems a very low line.

Surprised the Bombers line is so low given most of their supporters have pencilled them in for top 4-6.

 

[GROTTO]

While Big Footy always massively overrates how overrated they think the Blues are - I agree they look a good bet at the unders.
.

Well apparently those betting on this event on Sportsbet differ to us, Blues at $1.95 to win U9.5 and $1.85 for O9.5

 

[Anzac16]

Sorry to say this but I think the Blues are the best bet out of that lot to win less than 10 games (unders) which I am most confident about.They definitely dont have the depth to cover injuries to key players (should they have any) which will only help that cause of them winning less than 10 games. I have them around the 7-9 mark as you and the max of 9 wins is being very generous too.

The rest are around about bang on where I would expect them to be.

Port winning 16 or more games is going to be challenging, their first 5 games are - Freo(A), Swans (H) Roos (A) Hawks (H) Crows (H), although last year they lost 5 games by 8 points or less and ended up with 14 wins so they should improve on that if they are a genuine flag chance in 2015. Trengove is possibly going to miss some early games with a shoulder injury.

Crows with 12 wins is where I have penciled them to be at the end of the season and that is if everything goes perfectly. Biased? Maybe?

Port could very easily win all 5 of those games, that's the thing. They could also drop all 5. Definitely defines their season. I think 4/5 would get them over the 16 win mark.

Crows are my wildcard for this year. We saw what they did a few years back under Sando's first year, and whilst I am not expecting something of that caliber this year, still think they are a very good chance for the Top 8.

While Big Footy always massively overrates how overrated they think the Blues are - I agree they look a good bet at the unders.

Best overs bet to me looks to be Geelong - that seems a very low line.

Surprised the Bombers line is so low given most of their supporters have pencilled them in for top 4-6.

Blues do look good at that line. I won't bet on it just in hope we actually have a good year this year

Geelong line does seem extremely low. Whilst I don't particularly want to have money tied up in a bet over the course of the season, think at those odds it worth a couple of units.

Bombers are another interesting one this year. One point I didn't raise was how they would respond to Hirdy coaching again. No Goodwin or Bomber at the club next year either takes away a bit of coaching prowess. Mind you their coaching panel certainly isn't too shabby without them in there anyway.

 

[Chism]

I would be surprised if we failed to win less than the 9.5 games quoted this season honestly.

We lost 6 games all under 12pts ( 5 of them under 8 pts with 2 to the Cats by 5 and 6 and Freo 5 also ) and drew in the final rd of the season. Judd will play more than 12 games this season and not be underdone coming into this season and we get a fully fit Kruezer back and Henderson after coming off an injury riddled season playing only 17 games with at least 30% he did play under an injury cloud.

It is AFL though and anything can happen and i may be biased but i reckon we go over that line.

 

[Anzac16]

I would be surprised if we failed to win less than the 9.5 games quoted this season honestly.

We lost 6 games all under 12pts ( 5 of them under 8 pts with 2 to the Cats by 5 and 6 and Freo 5 also ) and drew in the final rd of the season. Judd will play more than 12 games this season and not be underdone coming into this season and we get a fully fit Kruezer back and Henderson after coming off an injury riddled season playing only 17 games with 30% under an injury cloud.

It is AFL though and anything can happen and i may be biased but i reckon we go over that line.

My concern with us is just our consistency. We ran close to teams like the Cats and Freo last year, but then dropped games to Brisbane, Melbourne and GWS.

We will definitely have a better 22 than last year, that is for sure.

Just not sure on us this year. Want to believe we can push hard for finals, but we might be one year off that.

 

[Chism]

My concern with us is just our consistency. We ran close to teams like the Cats and Freo last year, but then dropped games to Brisbane, Melbourne and GWS.

We will definitely have a better 22 than last year, that is for sure.

Just not sure on us this year. Want to believe we can push hard for finals, but we might be one year off that.

Yeah maybe but i reckon the dumb losses like you mentioned will not happen this season and if we can go 70% in close games under 2 goals instead of 10% like last year that already has us on 11 wins! Not to mention i reckon we are a better side going into the the season at this stage then we were in 2014 in January.

AFL is very fickle though and who knows as teams rise and drop a heap especially teams that are not in the 2014 Top 3-4 echelon bracket. The comp is just so even nowadays regarding at least 10 teams.

 

[Anzac16]

Yeah maybe but i reckon the dumb losses like you mentioned will not happen this season and if we can go 70% in close games under 2 goals instead of 10% like last year that already has us on 11 wins! Not to mention i reckon we are a better side going into the the season at this stage then we were in 2014 in January.

AFL is very fickle though and who knows as teams rise and drop a heap especially teams that are not in the 2014 Top 3-4 echelon bracket. The comp is just so even nowadays regarding at least 10 teams.

I certainly hope we won't have more dumb losses this year like both of the Geelong games. You're 100% correct with us being a better side at the moment compared to where we were 12 months ago.

Think there is a defined bracket in which teams fit into going into this year -

Top 6 - Hawks, Swans, Cats, Power, Dockers, Roos
6 -> 14 - Crows, Lions, Carlton, Pies, Dons, Suns, Tigers, Eagles
Bottom 4 - GWS, Melbourne, Saints, W.B

Brisbane and Carlton are the 2 big wildcard teams in the middle 8. We could slip down closer to the bottom 4 though. Going to be a bit of a fight to those final 2 spots in the 8 again this year.

 

[GROTTO]

I would be surprised if we failed to win less than the 9.5 games quoted this season honestly.
/QUOTE]

Could you pencil in which wins you think the Blues will have this season?

Given your draw if you beat Lions, GWS (2X) Melbourne, Dogs and Demons. Thats 7 games which requires you to win 3 more.

Assuming you roll Adelaide and GCS (both 50:50), that still leaves you needing one more and assuming a perfect run of beating all those teams I stated prior.

In any case, there is so much that can happen between now and when the games are played (ie injury and form) its purely just a hypothetical exercise.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah maybe but i reckon the dumb losses like you mentioned will not happen this season and if we can go 70% in close games under 2 goals instead of 10% like last year that already has us on 11 wins! Not to mention i reckon we are a better side going into the the season at this stage then we were in 2014 in January.

.

Have been hoping for this for the last 5-6 years and it hasn't happened yet.

 

[jaymasha]

Have been hoping for this for the last 5-6 years and it hasn't happened yet.

I can't actually remember the last time we were properly consistent.

 

[iluvparis]

I can't actually remember the last time we were properly consistent.

Probably when we were consistently shit.

 

[GROTTO]

I can't actually remember the last time we were properly consistent.

MM has taken your Club backwards IMO, wouldnt surprise me if he was one of the first coaches to go in 2015.

 

[Cuzz09]

Carlton bottom 6 I reckon. Same old Blooz

 

[jaymasha]

MM has taken your Club backwards IMO, wouldnt surprise me if he was one of the first coaches to go in 2015.

changing coaches every few seasons is never good for a club. I would imagine we'd keep him, at least for stabilities sake.

 

[GROTTO]

changing coaches every few seasons is never good for a club. I would imagine we'd keep him, at least for stabilities sake.

He was under a lot of pressure during the season after some poor losses especially to the Demons and Dons, I just cannot imagine him surviving the year if he has another poor year like 2014. When does his contract expire? Mind you it didnt stop the Crows sacking Sanderson whose contract expired at the end of this year.

 

[jaymasha]

He was under a lot of pressure during the season after some poor losses especially to the Demons and Dons, I just cannot imagine him surviving the year if he has another poor year like 2014. When does his contract expire? Mind you it didnt stop the Crows sacking Sanderson whose contract expired at the end of this year.

His contract expires at the end of this season. But the feeling around the club is he'll resign for another three years

 

[banana_bus]

Could you pencil in which wins you think the Blues will have this season?

Given your draw if you beat Lions, GWS (2X) Melbourne, Dogs and Demons. Thats 7 games which requires you to win 3 more.

Assuming you roll Adelaide and GCS (both 50:50), that still leaves you needing one more and assuming a perfect run of beating all those teams I stated prior.

In any case, there is so much that can happen between now and when the games are played (ie injury and form) its purely just a hypothetical exercise.

Using this kind of "penciling in" technique is always fraught with danger, but if you look at it that way, the Blues are always going to have 2-3 upsets (if you want to call them that) against your Essendons/Collingwoods/Richmonds and a few others.

 

[d3ft]

Using this kind of "penciling in" technique is always fraught with danger, but if you look at it that way, the Blues are always going to have 2-3 upsets (if you want to call them that) against your Essendons/Collingwoods/Richmonds and a few others.

Agreed. Ideally you'd assign a probability of winning to each game and add them up for an expected win total. If you wanted to get fancy you could run a simulation of binomial draws using these projected win probabilities to determine a percentage probability of beating a certain win total line.

 

[Chism]

Using this kind of "penciling in" technique is always fraught with danger, but if you look at it that way, the Blues are always going to have 2-3 upsets (if you want to call them that) against your Essendons/Collingwoods/Richmonds and a few others.

We will beat the Tigers in rd 1, we always do!!

 

[Chism]

Could you pencil in which wins you think the Blues will have this season?

Given your draw if you beat Lions, GWS (2X) Melbourne, Dogs and Demons. Thats 7 games which requires you to win 3 more.

Assuming you roll Adelaide and GCS (both 50:50), that still leaves you needing one more and assuming a perfect run of beating all those teams I stated prior.

In any case, there is so much that can happen between now and when the games are played (ie injury and form) its purely just a hypothetical exercise.

So all of the Tigers , Bombers and Pies will sweep us????? 0-6 against these 3 teams.......

Good luck with that thought and when was the last time that happened?? I doubt it even happened when we were at our lowest in the Mid 2000 period. That is such an interstate statement honestly as you are a Crow supporter and ladder position usually means SFA when all these 3 teams play each other at the MCG with 80k+ fans, the underdog always a great chance to salute in these matches. Like saying Port will sweep the Crows everytime in the Derby..... it just does not happen regardless of ladder positions and they are usually close.

 

[GROTTO]

So all of the Tigers , Bombers and Pies will sweep us????? 0-6 against these 3 teams....... .

No but I would think you would be entering each of those games as underdogs though.

In the case of this hypothetical exercise, I was trying to estimate how many games you would win for the season where you enter each game as favourites.

If I am not mistaken you won 2 games as underdogs in 2014 and lost 3 as favourites.

 

[Chism]

No but I would think you would be entering each of those games as underdogs though.

In the case of this hypothetical exercise, I was trying to estimate how many games you would win for the season where you enter each game as favourites.

If I am not mistaken you won 2 games as underdogs in 2014 and lost 3 as favourites.

Yeah all good and that is the AFL. Like someone else mentioned penciling in wins is a bit of a mugs game before the season even starts! Soooo much changes during a season.

But the three above mentioned teams will NOT sweep us and if they do i will be very surprised.

 

[GROTTO]

Yeah all good and that is the AFL. Like someone else mentioned penciling in wins is a bit of a mugs game before the season even starts! Soooo much changes during a season.

But the three above mentioned teams will NOT sweep us and if they do i will be very surprised.

Chism I also stated right at the start there is so much that can happen in terms of injuries and form, of course there is so many issues to consider in penciling in wins at the very least it has stimulated conversation around the upcoming season.

Even NAB Cup form is so misleading as so often we have seen some teams look like a million dollars only to screw us in R1. I think infamously it was the Lions that lost to the Dogs back in 2013 that surprised us all.